timschochet
Footballguy
Every poll has been of likely voters. Beto needs unlikely voters to show up on Tuesday. If that happens he’s got a shot.
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***Official*** Beto O'Rourke Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Mister CIA
- Start date
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Yeah, if we have any Texas FBGs who are voting for Lizard Man, they need to come in here and splain theyselves.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Hilts
Footballguy
I appreciate you coming out so clearly and quickly into your arrival. I'm not sure which banned alias you were, but it makes it easier to expand the ol' ignore list without wasting a lot of time trying to give you benefit of the doubt.
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Well that is mighty Democrat of you automatically shutting out someone who disagrees with you.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Our patience is just about worn out with people who are unwilling or unable to explain their thought processes in a way that might further understanding. Good bye.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Beto has a much larger chance of being president than Lyin’ Ted son of the JFK murderer.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Lyin’ Ted is the nickname, Son of JFK murderer was more of an assertion.
Anyways, Beto is within a few points of him in Texas. Guy is an up and comer.
Ted is all washed up.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
What America is this where feeding the poor is cause for outrage? So freaking sad. That's Republican America 2018 though. Party of Jesus. :(
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Sadly its the America that's supported by the religious right. Its the "new Christian".
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
"And Jesus said worry not about the old, the sick, the poor from ####hole countries. For your heaven is here on Earth as you are white like my Father." Galatians 12:7
bigbottom
Footballguy
Cruz was at the Firehouse Saloon with the Governor in that 60 Minutes piece. That’s a live music venue I’ve played probably 10-12 times.
prefontaine
Footballguy
Thanks for this link. Well done article by Politico. Interesting comments and comparisons to the TN Senate race where I live and it seemed accurate. Democrat Phil Bredesen's run a very different campaign moving more toward the center. We'll see how that fared tomorrow.
zoonation
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Triumph the Insult Comic Dog paid a visit to both O'Rourke and Cruz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ8VV6TqeXI
James Daulton
Footballguy
Not enough young people, women, and minorities? Or won't the women break for Beto at a big enough clip?
NFL2DF
Footballguy
There are plenty of women and minorities and young people in TX.
The problem is that Robert's target demographic is college educated white male transplants from the Midwest, California, and New England.
They make up a moderate percentage of people in Dallas & Houston suburbs and Austin but not the rest of the state.
Native Texans are not falling for the socialist with a Mexican nickname shtick.
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bigbottom
Footballguy
Very interesting article. But regarding the paragraph you excerpted about Beto likely besting Sadler’s showing in 2012 by just 3 or 4 points, I’d mention the following:
1) Comparing a presidential election (2012) with a mid-term election (2018) is apples and oranges. A lot of Democrats in Texas turned out in 2012 to vote for Obama. As is commonly known, Democratic turnout is typically lower for midterm elections as compared to Republican turnout.
2) Cruz in 2012 was a first time Senatorial candidate who had just upset Lieutenant Governor Dewhurst in the Primary. In other words, Cruz was a relative unknown in 2012. Not the case now after running a competitive presidential primary campaign, and winning Texas in the process. He is now a high-profile incumbent and viewed in Texas, rightly or wrongly, as a party leader. Again, apples and oranges. I’m confident that if Sadler were running against Cruz today with his spending from 2012, he would perform far, far worse than he did in 2012.
3) Just 3-4 points? Moving the needle 3-4 points in Texas is huge.
As for the article’s premise, it seems to be that Beto blew it by taking positions that are just too progressive for Texas (i.e, Medicare for All). While that may be an appropriate thesis, it just smacks of cowardice - of watering down the message to make it more palatable to a certain segment of voters. Of abandoning principles for political expediency. I’m increasingly of the mind that if the Democrats want to be relevant in the long term, they need to be bold and courageous with respect to their platform, and stop being Republican light. Will this result in some losses along the way? Absolutely. That said, I personally think Beto was always going to lose the Senatorial race in Texas, but my gut tells me that it’s not because he was too bold on policy issues. Heck, if there is any state that should be open to a Medicare for All argument, it’s Texas (Texas ranks dead last - 50th - in percentage of its residents with health insurance).
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bigbottom
Footballguy
whoknew
Footballguy
I think this is the real question going forward.
And I don't really know the answer. As I mentioned, in TN our Democrat Senate candidate, Phil Bredesen is very much running as Republican light. His latest adds play up the fact as governor, he sent 2,000 National Guard troops to help protect the border when Bush was President. His other ads talk about how he'll work with President Trump when it's good for Tennessee. The Republican Senator Candidate's ads are Trump saying a vote for Bredesen is a vote for Pelosi.
I understand the "cowardice" angle but there's also the reality. There's honesty and there's understanding your constituents/customers. It's a tough balance. And for the fleeting moments I've ever considered doing something in politics, it's one of the biggest negatives for me.
How this plays for the future candidates will be interesting.
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prefontaine
Footballguy
Beto has run an idealistic campaign. That's good and bad. To your point, it's what a lot of Democrats want. They want to fight for what they believe in a la Bernie. And Beto is an extremely talented politician to carry that message.
But as talented as Beto is, I agree with some of the criticism. Cruz for all his advantages, isn't all that popular. He has had net unfavorabilities in Texas for a while leading into this election (though naturally peaking as we draw close). I agree the bar of Sadler is deceptive. I also think Beto's going to outperform today due to unlikely voters.
But Dems have the first shot to win a state wide race in a while. Some pragmatism wouldn't have hurt.
Ned
Footballguy
Ignoramus
Footballguy
bigbottom
Footballguy
Would pragmatism (as opposed to idealism) have created the enthusiasm that will result in the greater than expected unlikely voter turnout you predict?
I think that's a false choice. Democrats have been running "pragmatic" campaigns in the South for a generation and losing consistently. More importantly, Beto ran as who he is. To do anything else would have been not just wrong, but politically disastrous. There's a growing consensus in politics that authenticity is the coin of the realm. That can be good (Obama) or bad (Trump), but I think (hope?) we may increasingly see the bland, blow-dried, poll-tested pablum spewer as an anachronism.
prefontaine
Footballguy
Hard to say, I think this cycle makes it possible and Beto has definitely capitalized on that enthusiasm. It's unclear whether a more pragmatic approach would have created gains in the normal electorate vs expanding the voting base. It's always a what if.
prefontaine
Footballguy
This isn't then though. This is 2018. And in 2018 there is a competitive Senate race in TN, MS, and TX and we have a sitting Dem Senator in AL. These conditions have not existed in a generation. Looking back at how things played out in 2000 or whenever isn't necessarily that meaningful.
OK, here's the thing: In TN, the Democrats ran Bredesen. He's a moderate former governor, and he ran a pretty moderate campaign (from what I've heard. I mostly only know that he announced he supported Kavanaugh despite not actually having to take a position on the nomination). Meanwhile, Beto ran a liberal, idealistic campaign. Which one was smarter? The easy answer is ask me tomorrow. But I would submit that they're both right, in that they both ran as who they genuinely were, and that is almost always the most effective political strategy.
I guess I don't really understand what you're arguing. What should Beto have done to come across as more pragmatic?
Rove!
Footballguy
its amazing how seamless the shift is from "democrats funding the caravan is a kooky conspiracy theory" to "it's noble and moral to send money"
not a hint of dissonance, amazing...
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
zoonation
Footballguy
He will go back to El Paso, take some time off, and then the nation will come Calling and say we want you to run against the bigotted lying narcissist. And I think he does it. I hope he does.
zoonation
Footballguy
