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AFC Championship - Patriots Hold Off Jags (1 Viewer)

Nathan Jahnke‏ @PFF_NateJahnke 10m10 minutes ago

Blake Bortles is tied for the best winning percentage for a QB in NFL playoff history still.

 
If the Jags can execute a game plan to disrupt Brady, they have a decent shot. Various good defenses over the years have been able to do it. The @ Dolphins MNF game is probably the most recent example. 

 
Meow

I see the Jaguars matchup very similar to the Titans. Blake Bortles is gonna have to prove everyone wrong for them to win, i dont like their odds.

Lets go!

 
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Early line

Covers‏Verified @Covers 28m28 minutes ago

Opening Line for AFC Championship from @LVSuperBook #Jaguars +8 #GoPats -8 Total: 45.5

 
If the Jags can execute a game plan to disrupt Brady, they have a decent shot. Various good defenses over the years have been able to do it. The @ Dolphins MNF game is probably the most recent example. 
Jacksonville has no shot. Patriots will get their 24 points no matter how Jacksonville schemes. 

Fournette will be stuffed all day. Bortles turns it over multiple times.

24-7 Patriots.

wish I could say otherwise.

 
BusterTBronco said:
Jags gave up 545 yards to Big Been and the Steelers.  That defense is highly over-rated.

The Patriots, not being a dumb team like Pittsburgh, will destroy them.  I expect it will pretty much be a repeat of the Tennessee game.
Somebody in the Jaguars thread compared their defense to the Seahawks defense that won the SB :lmao:  

 
Jags are talented enough to make some waves.

It's just not enough to expect them to go into NE and win.  

Granted, they did that in PIT...twice.

PIT just seems to be a dumber team than NE though......so I don't think JAX can do that.

Jacksonsville will have "moments" in the game....they might even upset the NE applecart a few times.  They just don't have the horses on O to score enough.  

 
Pats win going away. Pats at home are ridiculous. And we are talking about Blake Bortles. The stage is just too big for the Jags. Whatever the spread is, take the Pats. They’ve been there, done that, too many times.

 
BusterTBronco said:
Jags gave up 545 yards to Big Been and the Steelers.  That defense is highly over-rated.

The Patriots, not being a dumb team like Pittsburgh, will destroy them.  I expect it will pretty much be a repeat of the Tennessee game.
This. It won't be close. Pats will take away Fournette. Vance McDonald tore them apart--what do you think Gronk will do? Bet the kids and the house at Pats -9.

 
Pats win going away. Pats at home are ridiculous. And we are talking about Blake Bortles. The stage is just too big for the Jags. Whatever the spread is, take the Pats. They’ve been there, done that, too many times.
They said this about the Seahawks against Manning in the SB. They were too young, hadn't been there.

Afterwards they were saying that cause they were so young they didn't understand the significance of the moment, of playing in a SB, therefore played with minimal sense of pressure.

Jags can do this. Am I expecting it? No. But am I ruling it out? No.

 
They said this about the Seahawks against Manning in the SB. They were too young, hadn't been there.

Afterwards they were saying that cause they were so young they didn't understand the significance of the moment, of playing in a SB, therefore played with minimal sense of pressure.

Jags can do this. Am I expecting it? No. But am I ruling it out? No.
Let me know when russell wilson is playing qb for the jags

 
This Jaguars team reminds me of the 2009-2013 Raven’s teams that went 2-2 in the playoffs in New England. 

They clearly have a chance. 

 
I remember the last time the Jags and Pats played in the post season.

Brady was something like 26/27...where the one incompletion was when he spiked the ball.

Del Rio blitzed once.  The result was an 80 yard TD.

I like this year's version of the Jags better in terms of competition.  Should be a good game to watch.

Bortles, Keenum, Foles, Brady.  Cue the Sesame Street "One of these things is not like the other" music.

 
I remember the last time the Jags and Pats played in the post season.

Brady was something like 26/27...where the one incompletion was when he spiked the ball.

Del Rio blitzed once.  The result was an 80 yard TD.
Wait...so  comparing this defense to Seattle is bad ( despite the coaching influence and concentration on the secondary) but comparing this defense to a team when Jalen Ramsey was in elementary school is.... something else

 
You have New England:

JJ Zachariason‏Verified account @LateRoundQB

Tennessee has struggled against the pass all season long while being strong against the run. Patriots with 41 pass attempts to 17 rush attempts despite a positive script for most of the game. Because their coaches actually know how to gameplan.

Titans allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team during the regular season. 10 of 27 completed New England passes tonight have been to running backs.

Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, but I also think it's amazing that this kind of gameplan isn't an expectation. Coaches get praise for doing the most obvious things imaginable.

And, no, this isn't me saying that gameplans are this simple. It's me saying that these kind of matchups exists every week in every game, and coaches completely ignore them. New England never does.

Update: The Patriots had a 21-point lead and went from 41 passes vs. 17 rushes to 51 passes vs. 22 rushes. Because they freaking understand matchups.

-------

and then you have Pittsburgh:

Warren Sharp‏Verified account @SharpFootball

Said this all week. Todd Haley is an arrogant play caller who thinks he will beat you by having better players. Seemingly minimal desire to adjust offense to attack opponent weakness. The canyon between the Patriots & the Steelers in this regard is as wide as earthly possible.

If you've enjoyed the Steelers offense the past 5 years, just imagine how good it would look with Kyle Shanahan, Josh McDaniels, Sean McVay, Pat Shurmur (or a number of other coordinators who adapt to attack opposing weaknesses) calling plays.

Le'Veon Bell is averaging 5.8 yards per rush. The Steelers called 8 straight passes. One was a near interception. One was a sack-fumble returned for TD.  Most were passes with empty backfields, giving the Jaguars zero run/pass conflict.

A real life Groundhog Day in the first half:
21 Ben passes vs the #1 pass D
8 Bell runs

Bell is averaging 5.8 YPC
Roethlisberger has 2 turnovers

I think we know who plays the rodent in this one.

On early downs in the first half:
*Haley went 74% pass.
*Bell posted 8.2 YPC and was successful on 50% of his runs.
*Ben dropped back 17 times:
--35% success rate
--2 sacks
--2 turnovers
--Another pseudo-turnover on downs via horrific 4th down play call.

 
The same defense that gave up 44 points to Jimmy Garoppolo?
No. Not that one.

edit: besides, jimmy gq is better than brady at this point in their careers. That much is obvious by Belichick stating he’s taking the NYG job, after Kraft made him do hatha yoga with Guerrero.

 
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You have New England:

JJ Zachariason‏Verified account @LateRoundQB

Tennessee has struggled against the pass all season long while being strong against the run. Patriots with 41 pass attempts to 17 rush attempts despite a positive script for most of the game. Because their coaches actually know how to gameplan.

Titans allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team during the regular season. 10 of 27 completed New England passes tonight have been to running backs.

Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, but I also think it's amazing that this kind of gameplan isn't an expectation. Coaches get praise for doing the most obvious things imaginable.

And, no, this isn't me saying that gameplans are this simple. It's me saying that these kind of matchups exists every week in every game, and coaches completely ignore them. New England never does.

Update: The Patriots had a 21-point lead and went from 41 passes vs. 17 rushes to 51 passes vs. 22 rushes. Because they freaking understand matchups.

-------

and then you have Pittsburgh:

Warren Sharp‏Verified account @SharpFootball

Said this all week. Todd Haley is an arrogant play caller who thinks he will beat you by having better players. Seemingly minimal desire to adjust offense to attack opponent weakness. The canyon between the Patriots & the Steelers in this regard is as wide as earthly possible.

If you've enjoyed the Steelers offense the past 5 years, just imagine how good it would look with Kyle Shanahan, Josh McDaniels, Sean McVay, Pat Shurmur (or a number of other coordinators who adapt to attack opposing weaknesses) calling plays.

Le'Veon Bell is averaging 5.8 yards per rush. The Steelers called 8 straight passes. One was a near interception. One was a sack-fumble returned for TD.  Most were passes with empty backfields, giving the Jaguars zero run/pass conflict.

A real life Groundhog Day in the first half:
21 Ben passes vs the #1 pass D
8 Bell runs

Bell is averaging 5.8 YPC
Roethlisberger has 2 turnovers

I think we know who plays the rodent in this one.

On early downs in the first half:
*Haley went 74% pass.
*Bell posted 8.2 YPC and was successful on 50% of his runs.
*Ben dropped back 17 times:
--35% success rate
--2 sacks
--2 turnovers
--Another pseudo-turnover on downs via horrific 4th down play call.
Great post here... It was bizzare watching the PIT/JAX game for that reason. I realize PIT got behind early, but it was still VERY early in the game with zero need to abandon the run. NE will not be so foolish.

Brady generally makes far better decisions with the ball than Ben, so Interceptions will be harder to come by. PIT showed JAX can be beaten deep, so I'd be surprised to not see NE stretch the field a bit with Hogan/Cooks... but I'd be shocked if the offense didn't run through Amenola/Lewis again. Jax does well defending the TE but Gronk is Gronk and will still be a factor. 

NE's will likely be similar to the TN gameplan, and will almost surely aim to remove Fournette and force Bortles, who has proven to be a solid game manager, but not someone who can win a game, to beat them. Fournette's lingering ankle issues aren't likely to be a factor unless he aggravates it. 

This game could go either way, but I like NE to win in a fairly close game. NE 34 JAX 26. If NE schemes Fournette properly and can avoid  maintain a positive turnover differential, I could see this NE holding JAX to the teens. 

 
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Let's take a look at the Defensive Line play from Jacksonville:

Football outsiders rank them 28th in Adjusted Line Yards vs the Run, and #2 vs the Pass. Vs Run their strength is at the Right Tackle position (8th best), similar to NE (6th best), with the rest of the line performing below league average vs the Run. 
 

 
Running the numbers based on the entire season . . .

JAX: (26.2 ppg on offense) + (+4.2 adjusted ppg on offense ) + (18.2 ppg NE allowed) + (-2.6 adjusted ppg for NE defense) / 2 = 23.0 points.
NE: (29.0 ppg on offense) + (6.9 adjusted ppg on offense) + (17.4 ppg JAX allowed) + (-3.6 adjusted ppg for JAX defense) / 2 = 24.9 points

With NE having + 3 for home field advantage, the projected outcome would be NE 28 JAX 23.

To explain the methodology, the offensive and defensive adjustments come from removing the outcome of the game played against each opponent and then tallying the results. For example, in the game between NE and NOS, the Patriots scored 13 points more than the Saints allowed in their other games. And the Patriots defense allowed 8.4 fewer points than the Saints averaged in their other games. Rinse and repeat for every game, divide by the number of games, and end up with the adjustment.

It should be noted that the Jaguars now have 8 defensive return TD's on the season. For this exercise, those points are counted as offensive points for Jacksonville. That boosted the Jags weekly scoring by 3.1 ppg. 

 
Patriots need to not turn the ball over and I think they will be fine. I can see a similar game as against the Titans where they struggle for longer against Jacksonville but ultimately figure it out. 

Look at both games yesterday, the better defensive teams shut down the stronger offensive teams for a period of time but ultimately the Saints & Steelers figured it out. Yeah, both lost but one was a fluke and the other was because their coach can’t handle game situations. 

 

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