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AquaBliss

Fanduel Conference Championship

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Last real NFL fantasy week of the year (so sad).  They'll probably have Pro Bowl and/or Pro Bowl + Superbowl tournaments but those are mostly lottery wins.

 

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Not sure who, but I think I will be going 4 Pats, a couple Jax players, and then what else fits.  I don't see Philly playing well enough on O to bother. 

I still like Jax D even if I am loading  up on the NE players.  

So maybe something like 2 of: Diggs/Thielen/Rudolph,   Fournette/Jax Wr/Jax D, and 4 Pats? (If that works salary-wise) 

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Not sure who, but I think I will be going 4 Pats, a couple Jax players, and then what else fits.  I don't see Philly playing well enough on O to bother. 

I still like Jax D even if I am loading  up on the NE players.  

So maybe something like 2 of: Diggs/Thielen/Rudolph,   Fournette/Jax Wr/Jax D, and 4 Pats? (If that works salary-wise) 

This is exactly what I did. But I think for gpp, its not going to be unique enough.

The Eagles/Vikings game may decide gpp winners. Just need to figure out which players to pick or fade. 

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42 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

This is exactly what I did. But I think for gpp, its not going to be unique enough.

The Eagles/Vikings game may decide gpp winners. Just need to figure out which players to pick or fade. 

I get what you are saying, but looking at the way the teams match up, I still think you can differentiate a bit with Pats players if that is what you think is best.  Based on how tough the Ds are vs rbs in the min/Philly game, maybe this is the week to trot out 2 NE rbs?  

Maybe if the 4 NE slots you use are Lewis/Rex/Gost/NE D and you hope for NE to pound the ball and for Brady to have a 250 & 2 td game that Keenum or somebody else could match or keep pace with? 

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I get what you are saying, but looking at the way the teams match up, I still think you can differentiate a bit with Pats players if that is what you think is best.  Based on how tough the Ds are vs rbs in the min/Philly game, maybe this is the week to trot out 2 NE rbs?  

Maybe if the 4 NE slots you use are Lewis/Rex/Gost/NE D and you hope for NE to pound the ball and for Brady to have a 250 & 2 td game that Keenum or somebody else could match or keep pace with? 

Do you like any players at all from the Eagles?

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12 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Do you like any players at all from the Eagles?

I need to look at matchups again, but not really.  I think wr2 is a way to attack Minn, so maybe Agholor? Elliot as well if I don't think they can score tds.

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I play mostly DK and typically do mutliple GPP entries - feel like I repeat that a lot but want to make sure people know that's my perspective.

Anyway, I also like the 2 NE RB strategy for this week.  I have Brady, Keenum, and even Bortles paired with Lewis and Rex (will drop to White if Rex is out again) in a few lineups.  DK offers a flex spot so I have some TE stacks (Gronk + Rudolph).

As for Philly, I also think N. Agholor is a decent option (and even T. Smith is a possibility).  From a DVOA perspective MIN D is weakest against WR (weakest is relative, but still).  MIN is 9th best against WR1, 4th best vs WR2, and 20th best vs other WRs.  These stats, plus Sendejo might miss the game with a concussion.

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Ugly week.  Just looking at the Jax WRs makes me want to throw up.

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Glancing at matchups and DVOAs again, and here are the only positions that have a matchup vs. 16 or lower DVOA (I figured I would extend it to bottom 1/2 Ds):

NE:  Rbs (rush), TE

Jax:  QB, Rbs (rush), Rbs (pass), WR1, and WR2

Min:  TE

That's it.  The 3 highlighted positions are ones that have the matchups that really stand out DVOA of 26 or higher for those positions.   Minn is top 6 in the league vs every position.  RG doesn't do the "other" WR DVOA rankings, so I will look at the other site for those today.  

That Lines up with OL vs. DL rankings as those in order are:  NE, Jax, Philly, Min.  

 

Not sure what that leaves us for the Minn/Philly game.  On a small slate, I am guessing the RBs are still worth a look despite the subpar matchups.  L.Murray has been seeing 4+ RZ touches in each of the last 4 games, and Blount saw 5 for Philly last week.  There's always a chance if they get down by the goalline some of these guys can fall in a for a TD or two, but I think we are counting on the TDs and not game long yardage production.  With Foles under center, all the pass catchers there have seen a big drop off in targets.  Long story short, I just don't see Philly doing a ton.  I am only doing 6-8 LUs and the most I am looking at is Elliot, and maybe an RB

It for sure could burn me, but like I posted above, I would rather take my shots with NE players who I could see getting those random 10 target games like Amendola, vs. somebody like Agholor or Smith.  

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It's only $2, so I am not going to think about it too much.  Going to go with the gut and still load up on my Pats.  8 LUs - 1 is a game stack of Minny/Philly just because, the other 7 have at least 4 Pats in some combo - I think 1/2 or more were with 2 NE RBs.  Game stacks with Lewis/White + 2 of Brady/Amendola/Gronk were the main ones, but also had a couple with Lewis/White/Gost/NE D.

A LOT of $ left on the table when I did the Lewis/White combo.  

Good luck all!! 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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I dunno I still say Fournette is a must play in cash.  Jaguars passing game is proven crap the last few weeks and Fournette is going to get his 20+ carries.  White vs. Lewis for RB2 is a crapshoot, but taking White affords me Gronk so I’ll probably do that combo.

Edited by AquaBliss

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5 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

I dunno I still say Fournette is a must play in cash.  Jaguars passing game is proven crap the last few weeks and Fournette is going to get his 20+ carries.  White vs. Lewis for RB2 is a crapshoot, but taking White affords me Gronk so I’ll probably do that combo.

For sure.  all my musings in the above post were for gpps.  

For cash, I personally would look at the matchups I posted and go from there.   My core would for sure be Fournette/Lewis and a Jax WR to exploit the only good matchups vs. Ds that I saw.  I get the feeling it might be a choice between Brady + Rudolph or Bortles + Gronk after the rest is filled out though.  

ETA:  On the downside though, Fournette is the one obvious play for NE to take away, and that's what BB always tries to do - take away the one thing the other team does best. 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Any updates on who's inactive?

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10 minutes ago, chet said:

Any updates on who's inactive?

I see Brady and Rex are a go.  Still see a Q next to Thielen, but I am sure that info is still to come. 

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After taking several weeks off I’m rolling out my $19 in a bunch of tournaments, mostly revolving around Brady/gronk pivots. Have some 2 ne rb, some min/philly stacks (in case that’s high scoring and ne/Jax isn’t), some ertz pivots, and a bunch of variations of wr and rb combos. Fingers crossed one hits

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My LUs were trash for the most part, but at least NE is in the SB!  

Philly stacks probably ruling right now.  

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13.60 in, $14.20 and an NBA Clutch ticket.  Hit for $7 in a $2 on the strength of Foles and Philly.  Not sure why I didn't have more Amendola as he's a playoff producer.

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Anyone notice they had some single game slates?  I thought that was against the law???

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Was checking my phone for updates by lineups.  WTF, I don't remembering entering any $112 tourneys.  I've accidentally entered $100 contests in the past chasing overlay.  Turns out it was $1.12., that decimal is small on the phone.

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Today was not so good for me.  I had Gronk in almost every lineup.  Had lineups with Pats stack, Jags stack, Minn stack, but no Philly stack.  Foles burned me a few weeks back so subconsciously probably didn’t want anything to do with him.  

Was a fun season though, here’s to winning some GPP’s next year.

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