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Evilgrin 72

The ***OFFICIAL*** 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers Thread

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First, Juju is amazing.

Second, a guess at roster moves:

  • Cuts
    • Mike Mitchel
    • JJ Wilcox
    • Ramon Foster (this would be a surprise, but if they go Guard early in draft, or resign Hubbard)
    • William Gay
    • Coty Sensabaugh
    • Darius Hey-Bey-Bey (A bit surprising, but he's old and we could save $1 million by using a rookie special teamer)
  • Resign
    • Leveon Bell
    • Big Ben (resign and spread out cap hit, maybe extend 2 years to 2021)
    • Shazier (Not sure if this is allowed. Basically sign him to a 3 year deal that pays him more up front than his current deal, but spread the cap out over 3 years. Also would allow him to try and recover for 3 years on the team but gives the team the ability to spread out his huge cap hit. Idk if you can resign a player that can't pass a physical.)
  • Restructure
    • Antonio Brown (push that hit down the road and restructure him again to reduce his cap hit this year)

These moves would free up enough to sign Leveon, potentially sign a few cheap FAs (maybe ILB?), and sign our rookies. We'd still be strapped, and hope that we can recover from kicking the can down the road.

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1 minute ago, steelers1080 said:

Demarco or Latavius? Just kidding, doesn't matter, gross.

Sorry,  not Latavius. 

If the move is strictly to save money, then they're not getting top talent.  I don't think a committee of Demarco (pass catching) with a rookie RB runner would not be bad.  Otherwise, sign or franchise Bell.

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Resigning Bell to a long term deal will be the biggest blunder the Steelers have made in my lifetime. I’m cool with him being franchised but his presence in the ground game outside of volume was highly overrated this year. He’s a phenomenal pass catcher which is very important in the NFL and that can’t be understated but he can be replaced by a multi back approach if necessary. If he loses half a step he easily becomes a sub 3.5 ypc RB and with his volume he could deteriorate quickly. McKinnon would be a fantastic match for the offense in the pass catching role and Hyde or a RB in the draft can easily match the between the tackles production. I’m not saying he’s overrated but he will end up being a huge burden on the cap and can’t be trusted off the field for the long term.

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31 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Rumors that they'll move Allen or Sutton to Safety, but no official moves that I've seen.

Allen is the better move, IMO.  I also read they may move Davis from SS to FS if Mitchell is cut.  I think that might be a good move as Davis' range seems to be better suited to FS (he would have to work on that Jugs machine though) and this rookie class seems to be a lot stronger at the SS position.

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18 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Sign Cushing?

Ugh. Hated him on Hard Knocks. Guy's a meathead ###hole. Can he still play? I'd rather have Timmons back. 

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On 2/16/2018 at 11:08 AM, Bojang0301 said:

Resigning Bell to a long term deal will be the biggest blunder the Steelers have made in my lifetime. I’m cool with him being franchised but his presence in the ground game outside of volume was highly overrated this year. He’s a phenomenal pass catcher which is very important in the NFL and that can’t be understated but he can be replaced by a multi back approach if necessary. If he loses half a step he easily becomes a sub 3.5 ypc RB and with his volume he could deteriorate quickly. McKinnon would be a fantastic match for the offense in the pass catching role and Hyde or a RB in the draft can easily match the between the tackles production. I’m not saying he’s overrated but he will end up being a huge burden on the cap and can’t be trusted off the field for the long term.

I think Bell is a special back and I would be fine signing him to a reasonable long term deal.  The problem is that Bell wants a deal beyond what is reasonable and I am worried the Steelers will do something very unSteeler-like and overpay.   Reportedly they are going to franchise him this week and continue to try and work a long term deal out. I am kinda hoping they are unable to and let Bell hit free agency next year. 

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12 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

I think Bell is a special back and I would be fine signing him to a reasonable long term deal.  The problem is that Bell wants a deal beyond what is reasonable and I am worried the Steelers will do something very unSteeler-like and overpay.   Reportedly they are going to franchise him this week and continue to try and work a long term deal out. I am kinda hoping they are unable to and let Bell hit free agency next year. 

I suppose they could front load it like the 9ers are doing with Jimmy G. That would also do them a service in the future when teams have to resign guys like Gurley, Elliot, Fournette and Kamara. I still think they should be going after McKinnon this offseason, whether Bell is there still or not. He would be the perfect recieving back for how the offense runs. If Bell were to go down a combo of Conner and McKinnon would be sufficient to maintain the offensive production.

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I'm worried about breaking the bank for Bell as well. He is a special all around back but he's got a ton of mileage and committing to a the type of deal that essentially puts them on the hook for $12-15M a year for next 3 years, which I think is what his contract will look like at least, is not something I'm exactly giddy to see. Problem with franchising him is that's going to be tough to work around $23M straight salary shot to a RB and player who likely won't be able to play in Shazier.

This is not an after the fact statement, but something I said before the season when fantasy community would be critical of teams like Saints adding more RB's and frustrated with Patriots adding more. Entering the season the Saints had committed about $8M to Ingram/Kamara/AP. Pats committed about $8M to Burkhead/Gillislee/Lewis/White. Both those teams had misses with their investments but for 75% of what the Steelers paid Bell both of those teams got more production of their RB's in both the passing game and running game then the Steelers got not only out of Bell but their entire RB group and have depth to a point if any one RB got hurt it would not devastate those teams.

I'd generally be in favor of that kind of approach, paying a group of 3-4 solid RB's a fraction of what we pay Bell but there is one problem to this method. You got to get the right mix of RB's or you will be floundering around at RB like Seattle.  This could be an issue with the Steelers because other than absolutely crushing the Bell pick they've done a pretty poor job under Colbert/Tomlin on identifying and adding other RB's. Mendenhall was solid enough but what else have they added at a position where you can find late round gems and cheap FA's  easier then most? I'm of the opinion Conner is a stiff who should have been a 5th-6h round type pick, taking him in round 3 of a loaded RB draft did not inspire confidence for me. Blount I think was biggest FA signing at RB and he was a disaster.

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Add me to the list of people who think that $12.5-15M per year for any running back is crazy.  Bell is definitely a talent, but that number is just way out of whack.... especially considering the obvious need at linebacker and safety.  Add the injury and suspension history and this is not a player that I want my team to invest heavily in going forward.

Release him, sign a vet and draft another back in the third or fourth round.  Spend the money saved on an inside linebacker and safety.  Yes, the offense will suffer slightly, but the defensive improvement should more than make up for it.

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There are a handful of guys available in FA for ILB this year, I doubt we pony up the money, but there are a few pretty good options. It would be smart to try and get a guy on a 2-3 year deal and resign Shazier for 3 years (if allowed) to spread out his hit.

Also, saw a mock where we got Rudolph in the 2nd (OK St. QB), I'd be A-ok with that.

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I kind of miss Touchdown There. He'd definitely be screaming about how the Steelers are broke and can't afford Bell. I wonder what happened to him. Either he stopped posting here or he finally ran himself over with his own car. 

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If the Steelers decide to not sign Bell the silver lining, besides the cap savings, would be a high compensatory pick in 2019.

Speaking on compensatory picks, the Steelers should get one for Timmons. I've read it will likely be a 5th rounder...

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11 hours ago, Godsbrother said:

If the Steelers decide to not sign Bell the silver lining, besides the cap savings, would be a high compensatory pick in 2019.

Speaking on compensatory picks, the Steelers should get one for Timmons. I've read it will likely be a 5th rounder...

Wouldn't the Joe Haden signing cancel out any comp pick for Timmons ?

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1 hour ago, moondog said:

Wouldn't the Joe Haden signing cancel out any comp pick for Timmons ?

I'm not sure, possibly.  Does it matter that Haden was cut by the Browns?

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29 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

I'm not sure, possibly.  Does it matter that Haden was cut by the Browns?

It does.  Only players lost to free agency are calculated.  Since Hayden was cut, he does not count.

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16 hours ago, Godsbrother said:

If the Steelers decide to not sign Bell the silver lining, besides the cap savings, would be a high compensatory pick in 2019.

Speaking on compensatory picks, the Steelers should get one for Timmons. I've read it will likely be a 5th rounder...

Doesn't look like it.  Not official, but those guys are pretty good.  Pittsburgh signed more FA then they lost and that's probably why.

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14 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Doesn't look like it.  Not official, but those guys are pretty good.  Pittsburgh signed more FA then they lost and that's probably why.

I think the league also looks at the $$ amount of the contracts of the FAs you lose got vs the FAs you signed.

The four FA's Pittsburgh lost had contracts totaling  $26M.   The five FAs they signed had contracts totaling $11M

 

 

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1 hour ago, moondog said:

I think the league also looks at the $$ amount of the contracts of the FAs you lose got vs the FAs you signed.

The four FA's Pittsburgh lost had contracts totaling  $26M.   The five FAs they signed had contracts totaling $11M

 

 

Nope, # first.  Only if you lose more than you sign.

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

Cancel Out CFAs Lost With CFAs Gained For Each Team
Finally, one each team’s list of CFAs lost and gained are determined and valued, one-to-one cancellations are applied.  Cancellations work as follows:
A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained.
If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value.
A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out.
Any team that has more CFAs lost than CFAs gained will then be eligible for compensatory picks for the CFAs lost that were not cancelled out by CFAs gained.
For a visual representation of how cancellations work, please visit our Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart to gain a better understanding of this complex process.

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1 hour ago, moondog said:

I think the league also looks at the $$ amount of the contracts of the FAs you lose got vs the FAs you signed.

The four FA's Pittsburgh lost had contracts totaling  $26M.   The five FAs they signed had contracts totaling $11M

 

 

Where this applies most is when determining what picks cancel.  PIT lost four guys - Timmons 2 years at $6M per year, Wheaton 2 years at $6M per year, Jarvis Jones 1 year at $1.25M, and Shamarko Thomas 1/$855k.  So they should qualify for a 5th, 5th, 7th, and 7th respectively.

When they sign Justin Hunter at almost exactly what Thomas was lost at they "cancel out" the 7th he would have brought.
Alualu was signed for 2 years/$6M per, so that cancels out Timmons' 5th
When they sign Knile Davis, there is no one close to his contract value, so the "next highest" would be the 7th from Jones.
If they stop there they would have a 5th round comp pick left.  But since they signed others, and since there were no other lower comp picks to "cancel", when you look at Cody Sensabaugh, even though it's only 2 years at $1.3M per year, the only pick left to cancel is the 5th from Wheaton.

My disclaimer is I don't follow PIT so I don't know when these guys were signed or even if they were cut at some point.  If they were signed after a certain cutoff they wouldn't cancel out a comp pick, and if they were cut before (week 10? I think?) a certain point they also wouldn't cancel any.

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"The Miami Herald reports the Dolphins are expected to release LB Lawrence Timmons by the start of the new league year.

Source: Miami Herald Feb 22 - 3:16 PM"

I don't think Timmons can cover anymore but I would not be surprised if the Steelers talk to him.

 

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On 2/22/2018 at 3:29 PM, moondog said:

 

"The Miami Herald reports the Dolphins are expected to release LB Lawrence Timmons by the start of the new league year.

Source: Miami Herald Feb 22 - 3:16 PM"

I don't think Timmons can cover anymore but I would not be surprised if the Steelers talk to him.

 

He would be an upgrade over Spence. That's not saying much but anything they can do to improve depth at ILB is welcome

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No compensatory picks for the Steelers in 2018.    The Bengals get three:  3rd, 5th and 7th.   Ravens get a 6th.   None for the Browns.

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Just say no to Timmons' returning.  Guy was a warrior for Pitty, but he's toast.  "He's better than Spence" isn't a big enough selling point to me.  They can probably find someone "better than Spence" on the 91A PAT bus headed through Lawrenceville every afternoon at 3:42. 

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10 hours ago, 5-ish Finkle said:

Just say no to Timmons' returning.  Guy was a warrior for Pitty, but he's toast.  "He's better than Spence" isn't a big enough selling point to me.  They can probably find someone "better than Spence" on the 91A PAT bus headed through Lawrenceville every afternoon at 3:42. 

I dunno I thought he had a decent year in 2016, he knows the system, and he was calling the plays on defense until last year.  There was a big problem with communications on defense after Shazier went down and they never did fix it.

He is only 32 which is not ancient and should come cheap.  I say bring him to kick the tires...

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If Tremaine Edmunds somehow falls to 15, any chance we trade up in front of the Ravens to draft him? He's very athletic, super young, and fills an immediate need. Seems like the kind of guy we'd want to take if we could. What would it take for the Cards to move back to 28? It might make sense for them to trade back because they're nearing a rebuild. If they can't get a QB in FA, they will probably draft 1, but the top 4 could be gone by 15, and it's too high for Rudolph or Jackson, but 28 isn't.  Could we get away with pick 28, pick 92, the 7th we got from the Giant, and Martavis Bryant?

It's a lot to give up, but he's projected to be the next big playmaker LB, and we just lost one.  

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1 hour ago, steelers1080 said:

If Tremaine Edmunds somehow falls to 15, any chance we trade up in front of the Ravens to draft him? He's very athletic, super young, and fills an immediate need. Seems like the kind of guy we'd want to take if we could. What would it take for the Cards to move back to 28? It might make sense for them to trade back because they're nearing a rebuild. If they can't get a QB in FA, they will probably draft 1, but the top 4 could be gone by 15, and it's too high for Rudolph or Jackson, but 28 isn't.  Could we get away with pick 28, pick 92, the 7th we got from the Giant, and Martavis Bryant?

It's a lot to give up, but he's projected to be the next big playmaker LB, and we just lost one.  

I wouldn't say impossible, but unlikely.  They'd probably want our 1st and 2nd rounders or our first and next year's first to make that move.

1st, 3rd, 7th and Martavis?  I suppose that's possible/fair - it would depend on the value AZ places on Bryant. Might have been more realistic with Arians still there. I don't think the Steelers would do that, though.  I think they still think Martavis has a part to play in this title window and aren't likely to sell low to get a 20 year old LB that may or may not be quite ready for prime-time.  That's putting a lot of expectations on this kid too if they give up a haul like that to go get him.

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20 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

I wouldn't say impossible, but unlikely.  They'd probably want our 1st and 2nd rounders or our first and next year's first to make that move.

1st, 3rd, 7th and Martavis?  I suppose that's possible/fair - it would depend on the value AZ places on Bryant. Might have been more realistic with Arians still there. I don't think the Steelers would do that, though.  I think they still think Martavis has a part to play in this title window and aren't likely to sell low to get a 20 year old LB that may or may not be quite ready for prime-time.  That's putting a lot of expectations on this kid too if they give up a haul like that to go get him.

All true. I think it's unlikely, but with the Ben window closing I do think we could see the Steelers be more aggressive. Also, when Ben leaves unless another solid QB falls into our laps, I could see them cleaning house somewhat and getting rid of a lot of high cap players to be able to restart. They always say reload instead of rebuild, but Ben could be what kicks off a new era.

I haven't reviewed tape on LVE yet, but the reviews definitely seem mixed between a 1st and 2nd round grade. If the Steelers are sold on him and he doesn't kill it at the combine (like Watt) then I hope we trade back instead of reaching. We're in a prime location for a team that wants to guarantee a 5th year option.

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2 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

All true. I think it's unlikely, but with the Ben window closing I do think we could see the Steelers be more aggressive. Also, when Ben leaves unless another solid QB falls into our laps, I could see them cleaning house somewhat and getting rid of a lot of high cap players to be able to restart. They always say reload instead of rebuild, but Ben could be what kicks off a new era.

I haven't reviewed tape on LVE yet, but the reviews definitely seem mixed between a 1st and 2nd round grade. If the Steelers are sold on him and he doesn't kill it at the combine (like Watt) then I hope we trade back instead of reaching. We're in a prime location for a team that wants to guarantee a 5th year option.

Seeing as we pick #28, most of the guys available are going to carry a 1st/2nd round grade unless someone drops precipitously.  Steelers typically aren't afraid to make a slight reach to guarantee they get their guy rather than play games.  Vander Esch isn't going to make it to pick 60 barring a miracle, so if he's the guy they like at 28, they'll pick him.  They're not going to sweat whether Kiper, McShay, or Mayock have him ranked #39 overall.

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Just saw a mock that had us taking Hercules Mata'afa in the 1st. He's a 250lb DT with a 5th round grade. I'm pretty sure we're not going to take him in the first. That said, he does have an excellent motor and tries harder than anyone else on the field. If we could get him late I'd definitely be ok with it even though he's hard to project in the NFL (he won't stay at DT).

It will be really interesting to see how the combine shakes up draft order. Unless a player is off the charts (good or bad) I usually don't change my opinion much after watching game tape. That can be a good thing or bad thing. Still thought Dalvin Cook was good even after poor combine, but also thought Jarvis Jones was good after a poor combine (not so much).

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34 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Just saw a mock that had us taking Hercules Mata'afa in the 1st. He's a 250lb DT with a 5th round grade. I'm pretty sure we're not going to take him in the first. That said, he does have an excellent motor and tries harder than anyone else on the field. If we could get him late I'd definitely be ok with it even though he's hard to project in the NFL (he won't stay at DT).

It will be really interesting to see how the combine shakes up draft order. Unless a player is off the charts (good or bad) I usually don't change my opinion much after watching game tape. That can be a good thing or bad thing. Still thought Dalvin Cook was good even after poor combine, but also thought Jarvis Jones was good after a poor combine (not so much).

I thought both Jarvis and Bud Dupree were steals, for opposite reasons.  Just goes to show you can't really rely on tape and ignore combine results, nor vice-versa. It's an inexact science since you're dealing with human beings - even the guys getting paid obscene amounts of money to do this professionally can't see the future, so how are a bunch of know-nothing buttwads like us sitting on a message board supposed to do any better?  :lol:

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I love Leveon. His skillset is unique. I would pay him for this year because of the window to win. 

However, what would it cost to sign McKinnon and Doug Martin?

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3 hours ago, bananafish said:

Kevin Colbert confirms that Shazier will not play in 2018.

It seemed like something that didn't need to be said, considering he can barely walk. Is there any way to still pay him but not have him count towards the cap?

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4 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

I love Leveon. His skillset is unique. I would pay him for this year because of the window to win. 

However, what would it cost to sign McKinnon and Doug Martin?

Sign john stewart instead

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8 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

It seemed like something that didn't need to be said, considering he can barely walk. Is there any way to still pay him but not have him count towards the cap?

If you mean from a competitive sense, no.  His 5th year option is guaranteed and must hit the salary cap. 

If you mean from a "that sucks, here's $1M a year for the rest of your life" then it's a gray area they need to be very careful with.  Technically yes they can do whatever they want with non-players, but if he were ever to get back on the field this could be construed as a way for them to get around the salary cap by pre-compensating him with the expectation he'd take less later.  I think that as long as there's a chance he could play they should stay far away from that.  

Edited by Hankmoody

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

If you mean from a competitive sense, no.  His 5th year option is guaranteed and must hit the salary cap. 

If you mean from a "that sucks, here's $1M a year for the rest of your life" then it's a gray area they need to be very careful with.  Technically yes they can do whatever they want with non-players, but if he were ever to get back on the field this could be construed as a way for them to get around the salary cap by pre-compensating him with the expectation he'd take less later.  I think that as long as there's a chance he could play they should stay far away from that.  

So you count against the cap if you are on season ending IR?  That seems unfair. Teams shouldnt be hamstrung by injuries and should be able to provide another player with a job. Seems like a no-brainer for the nflpa to want. 

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3 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

So you count against the cap if you are on season ending IR?  That seems unfair. Teams shouldnt be hamstrung by injuries and should be able to provide another player with a job. Seems like a no-brainer for the nflpa to want. 

They can.  Only the top 51 salaries count toward the cap, so signing a cheap replacement won't impact the cap.  

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

They can.  Only the top 51 salaries count toward the cap, so signing a cheap replacement won't impact the cap.  

Why should it have to be cheap?

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1 minute ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Why should it have to be cheap?

It doesn't "have to" be cheap, if they have cap room they can sign anyone they want.  If you want to debate the fairness of it I'm not your guy, you'll have to take it up with the ones that wrote the rule.

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14 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

So you count against the cap if you are on season ending IR?  That seems unfair. Teams shouldnt be hamstrung by injuries and should be able to provide another player with a job. Seems like a no-brainer for the nflpa to want. 

I agree that if you have a player that has been ruled out for the season before the season begins there should be some type of rebate on the cap but that is not how it works unfortunately. Now if Shazier chose to retire I think he wouldn't count against the cap but then he wouldn't get paid either so that would be an incredibly bad idea for him to do that.   The Steelers could restructure/extend his contract to lessen the hit for this year, which is what they would have done had he not been injured,  or they could just eat the entire $8 million this season.

On the bright side the Steelers got an additional $4 million dollars in roll-over salary cap space for this year which helps lessen the blow a bit.

Edited by Godsbrother

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14 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

On the bright side the Steelers got an additional $4 million dollars in roll-over salary cap space for this year which helps lessen the blow a bit.

The picture in that article doesn' reference cap rollover, it's referencing team spending toward the "Salary Floor" which is the minimum cash spending teams must outlay over a 4 year period.  It's not related to the cap number at all.  For example, when they give Le'Veon Bell a $20M signing bonus, all of that will count toward their "cap spending" for purposes of minimum spending, but only $5M (assuming 4 year deal) of it will hit the 2018 salary cap in terms of the pro-rated cap hit.  That's why the Lions are so high - Stafford got $50M in cash in 2017 but their cap number wasn't anywhere near $204M (which would have been more than $30M over the cap).

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19 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

The picture in that article doesn' reference cap rollover, it's referencing team spending toward the "Salary Floor" which is the minimum cash spending teams must outlay over a 4 year period.  It's not related to the cap number at all.  For example, when they give Le'Veon Bell a $20M signing bonus, all of that will count toward their "cap spending" for purposes of minimum spending, but only $5M (assuming 4 year deal) of it will hit the 2018 salary cap in terms of the pro-rated cap hit.  That's why the Lions are so high - Stafford got $50M in cash in 2017 but their cap number wasn't anywhere near $204M (which would have been more than $30M over the cap).

So you're saying this statement from the article is not true:  "On Monday, the team got more good news when the NFLPA credited the Steelers with $4 million in roll over cap space, which the team can use in the upcoming league year"

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2 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

So you're saying this statement from the article is not true:  "On Monday, the team got more good news when the NFLPA credited the Steelers with $4 million in roll over cap space, which the team can use in the upcoming league year"

No that is not what I'm saying.  

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Just now, Hankmoody said:

No that is not what I'm saying.  

Okay.   Regardless of the picture the point I was trying to make was the $8 million cap hit from Shazier was lessened a bit by getting an additional $4 million of it back in the rollover.

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