Which trade offer in a PPR 12 team Dynasty? (1 Viewer)

Offer A)

Give up: D. Freeman and D. Adams 

Get: 1.1 and 1.12 rookie picks

Offer B)

Give up: Adams and 1.6 rookie pick

Get: 1.1 rookie pick 

Or would you continue to try and get a better return? 

I like offer B much more than offer A.  Personally, I think Adams is overrated and there's a huge gap between 1.1. and 1.6.  I would easily give that up to get Barkley.

CabinFever said:

Offer A)

Give up: D. Freeman and D. Adams 

Get: 1.1 and 1.12 rookie picks

Offer B)

Give up: Adams and 1.6 rookie pick

Get: 1.1 rookie pick 

Or would you continue to try and get a better return? 

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According to Hindery's dynasty trade value chart the first trade is you giving up 47 to get 43 and the second is you giving up 41 to get 40.  That said, I think Hindery overvalues 1.1.  The pick's value in inflated by the fact that the last three consensus 1.1s seem to have lived up to draft slot (Gurley, Elliot, Fournette).  But I still remember the trend before that.  The three consensus 1.1s prior to that were Watkins, Bernard, and Trent Richardson... none of which have lived up to draft slot.  BTW, the consensus #1 the prior year was Mark Ingram, who was dumped by most that drafted him well before he became fantasy relevant.  I saw him on many a waiver wire prior to his resurgence, so you cannot count him as a hit either. Before Ingram it was Ryan Matthews and before that was Michael Crabtree and before that was Darrin McFadden.  That means that, prior to the recent Gurley/Zeke/Fournette run, only one of the seven consensus #1 rookies from 2008 to 2014 ever had a season that was as good as Adams gave you last year... and that was missing two games and without his starting QB.   

Personally, if I had Adams, I might turn down and offer of 1.1 straight up.  The dude averages 8 targets a game!

There is no way I would ever give up fantasy gold (a young, proven, 1st option WR in a prolific passing offense) plus a consensus top 15 RB that already has a #1RB, #6RB and #13 RB overall finishes and is only 25 himself for 1.1 and 1.12.  Even more, I would never trade Adams just to move up 5 slots.

Finally, as a general rule, the offseason is the worst time to trade for draft picks and the best time to trade for players.  Everyone is looking for a shiny new toy and bored with the proven performers they already possess... so the draft pick market is inflated and the player market is where you can get real value.  The best example I can give you for this was during the offseason prior to the 2015 draft, I was able to acquire DHop for 1.7 plus 2.7.  I have a runner up followed by two consecutive championships in that league thanks to the other owner wanting the new and shiny.

Brisco54 said:

Personally, if I had Adams, I might turn down and offer of 1.1 straight up.  The dude averages 8 targets a game!

There is no way I would ever give up fantasy gold (a young, proven, 1st option WR in a prolific passing offense) plus a consensus top 15 RB that already has a #1RB, #6RB and #13 RB overall finishes and is only 25 himself for 1.1 and 1.12.  Even more, I would never trade Adams just to move up 5 slots.

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Agree that offer A isn't that good. 

Disagree about Adams.  He's a good WR but I don't think he's elite.  Plus, Rodgers loves to spread the ball around.  8 targets only equates to 128 for a year.  14 WRs/TEs had more targets in 2017, so it's going to be TDs that makes Adams great and we all know that's volatile.  He's never caught more than 75 passes in a year, and he tends to miss games.  He's one concussion away from missing serious time. 

I would trade Adams and the 1.06 for Barkley all day long.  Barkley has the chance to be a real stud in the NFL and much more of an impact player than Adams or who you would get at 1.06.

One thing nobody mentioned about Adams is that he had two concussions this year relatively close together.  He is one hit from not playing again.  I see him as a serious injury risk and have no problem moving him in either deal.  I prefer B because I think Freeman is better than the 1.06. 

fightingillini said:

Agree that offer A isn't that good. 

Disagree about Adams.  He's a good WR but I don't think he's elite.  Plus, Rodgers loves to spread the ball around.  8 targets only equates to 128 for a year.  14 WRs/TEs had more targets in 2017, so it's going to be TDs that makes Adams great and we all know that's volatile.  He's never caught more than 75 passes in a year, and he tends to miss games.  He's one concussion away from missing serious time. 

I would trade Adams and the 1.06 for Barkley all day long.  Barkley has the chance to be a real stud in the NFL and much more of an impact player than Adams or who you would get at 1.06.

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Then again.. Barkely could be the next Trent Richardson and 1.6 could be Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara. 

Maybe we are looking at different data for Adams?

Two of his four seasons he has played all 16 games and he has missed a total of 5 games in 4 season.

His 8.3 targets per game place him at WR6 for 2017, behind only Dhop, Brown, Fitz, Landry & Keenan.  His target share was 19.8 in 2016 and increased to 23.8 in 2017.  (22% target share is normally the cut off for elite production.)

He followed the typical WR developmental pattern of a year three spike.  I get that folks want more total yards, but I fail to see any indicators that his performance levels will decline in the foreseeable future.    Hindery has him at WR8 for dynasty and I feel that is about right.  Any young top ten wr is fantasy gold in my book.

Brisco54 said:

Then again.. Barkely could be the next Trent Richardson and 1.6 could be Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara. 

Maybe we are looking at different data for Adams?

Two of his four seasons he has played all 16 games and he has missed a total of 5 games in 4 season.

His 8.3 targets per game place him at WR6 for 2017, behind only Dhop, Brown, Fitz, Landry & Keenan.  His target share was 19.8 in 2016 and increased to 23.8 in 2017.  (22% target share is normally the cut off for elite production.)

He followed the typical WR developmental pattern of a year three spike.  I get that folks want more total yards, but I fail to see any indicators that his performance levels will decline in the foreseeable future.    Hindery has him at WR8 for dynasty and I feel that is about right.  Any young top ten wr is fantasy gold in my book.

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Two terrible concussions in the last 6 months........that is a huge red flag to me.

Brisco54 said:

His 8.3 targets per game place him at WR6 for 2017, behind only Dhop, Brown, Fitz, Landry & Keenan. 

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This is not correct.  I believe you're using fantasypros data which it looks like the targets per game column is very much bugged out.  It is using the formula of regular season targets divided by 20 (counting bye week, injury weeks, and playoff weeks all as 0's).  For instance Antonio Brown had 174 targets in 15 games (11.6 per game) but it lists him as 8.7 per game (174 / 20).  It lists Adams as 6.2 targets per game using its broken formula.

With the correct numbers I believe Adams' 8.3 targets per game is somewhere around 13th.

What the fantasypros bug tells us is that there are six players that would have averaged more targets per game than Adams even if they had played 4-5 extra games where they received zero targets in each game.  That's how far ahead those guys were. 

I like the idea above of 1.01 for Adams; I there needs to be more would try a 2nd rounder.  Another option of course is to stand pat.  There are a lot of RBs in this draft and depending upon situation, there may be some good situations to consider with the 1.06.