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2018 FBG WSL1 Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)

Just for quick view:

1.01.ShadowfaxWaiting On "Shadowfax For The Next Pick 

1.02.Sweet Love  

1.03.Aaron Rudnicki  

1.04.Bicycle Seat Sniffer

1.05.Duckboy  

1.06.Stinkin Ref  

1.07.BassNBrew  

1.08.Stephen Holloway  

1.09.dpeease  

1.10.Bro1ncos  

1.11.Fullback Fro  

1.12.-OZ-

1.13.Mr. Irrelevant  

1.14.FF Ninja  

1.15.by_the_sea_wannabe  

1.16.Reaper  

2.01.Reaper  

2.02.by_the_sea_wannabe  

2.03.FF Ninja  

2.04.Mr. Irrelevant  

2.05.-OZ-  

2.06.Fullback Fro  

2.07.Bro1ncos  

2.08.dpeease  

2.09.Stephen Holloway  

2.10.BassNBrew  

2.11.Stinkin Ref  

2.12.Duckboy  

2.13.Bicycle Seat Sniffer  

2.14.Aaron Rudnicki  

2.15.Sweet Love  

2.16.Shadowfax 

 
So I made my pre-draft pick at two...do I need to log out as Commish, or am I somehow linked to it?

 
sitting at pick 6.....felt the the top 5 picks were pretty much chalk....for me it came down to Kamara and one other option.....nod to Kamara with PPR....

first pick of 2018 in the books....

 
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7 picks in, no real surprises although I wondered if cook was going to fall to me at 12 and I wasn't really sure where DJ would be taken. 

 
7 picks in, no real surprises although I wondered if cook was going to fall to me at 12 and I wasn't really sure where DJ would be taken. 
I have a comment on Cook, but will hold my tongue until other players are chosen...

 
I cant seem log in as user = commish, password = fbgwsl1 to link my account and draft. 

I'd like to take Kareem Hunt. 

 
1.11 Saquon Barkley RB Rookie
:rant:

When I got pick 12, my first thought was "sweet, seems like a good place to take Barkley before we know where he'll play". 

But instead I'll take the player I hate to like. (Titans fan but dammit I like this kid's Style)

 
I would have taken Fournette at 1.07 had I had that pick and the first 6 were gone......
I fully expected him to be gone and my option to be between cook and an option not yet taken (whom I would have taken), though I wanted Barkley.

 
:rant:

When I got pick 12, my first thought was "sweet, seems like a good place to take Barkley before we know where he'll play". 
Heh. In that case, I guess I shouldn't be too upset seeing him go at 1.11 knowing I still wouldn't have gotten him at 1.13. Thought there was a chance this early in the offseason he'd fall to me, though.

Of course, OBJ ain't a bad consolation prize.

 
Was so tempted to take a different player but there's a chance he'll fall to 3.12 (unlikely but maybe). But was not expecting Evans to be available at 2.05. he had an off year but he's still one of the best in the league.

So going all Florida so far, fournette and Evans  :popcorn:

 
just a heads up boys....

"We will have a short outage on Tuesday, Feb 6th while we prepare our system for the 2018 season. You won't be able to access your leagues for a couple of hours starting at about noon ET, but then access should return to normal later in the afternoon at about 3pm ET."

 
Was so tempted to take a different player but there's a chance he'll fall to 3.12 (unlikely but maybe). But was not expecting Evans to be available at 2.05. he had an off year but he's still one of the best in the league.

So going all Florida so far, fournette and Evans  :popcorn:
I would have taken Evans in a half-second at 2.04 if I didn't already have OBJ. Every time I've gone WR-WR to start off these things I've instantly regretted it.

McCaffrey was my first big swing for the fences at RB12. As a pure runner he's behind at least 3-4 other RBs still on the board, but he's got upside they don't if he manages to improve even somewhat as an inside runner while still maintaining an 80-catch pace. That's top-5, maybe top-3 scoring potential in PPR. Not too many other backs left I could spin that story about.

 
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Was so tempted to take a different player but there's a chance he'll fall to 3.12 (unlikely but maybe). But was not expecting Evans to be available at 2.05. he had an off year but he's still one of the best in the league.

So going all Florida so far, fournette and Evans  :popcorn:
Did not expect Julio or Evans to be available to me at 2.03. Had quite a choice to make. Went with Julio due to a lack of faith in Winston/Koetter. Not sure either of them are better than who I was planning on taking, though, but I'm sure I'll land him on a lot of other teams. Need to diversify. 

 
I found the selection of Cook over Hunt/Fournette interesting...not that I think it is a bad pick (at all), but I am not sure whether I would have had the guts to take a guy coming off a major injury at this time of the year (August would have been a different story).

 
I found the selection of Cook over Hunt/Fournette interesting...not that I think it is a bad pick (at all), but I am not sure whether I would have had the guts to take a guy coming off a major injury at this time of the year (August would have been a different story).
Not to mention they lost their OC. The first round just feels scary in general this year. Was glad to be picking late-ish. 

  • Bell could very well not be on PIT next year
  • DJ lost Arians and Palmer - I want no part of him at his current price due to this
  • Kamara - there was something in the water in New Orleans this past year... I sense a team-wide regression coming
  • Cook - loss of OC plus QB turmoil increases risk
  • Hopkins - if defense and ground game improve, his massive garbage time stats will dry up
  • Hunt - Spencer Ware isn't a superstar, but he's going to have a role; Hunt's value was in being a bellcow
  • Gordon - yet to crack 4 ypc, leaving room for Ekeler's role to grow
  • Barkley - rookie + unknown landing spot
  • OBJ - injury + QB questions + new offense
  • Gronk - injuries + retirement talks
  • McCoy - age, mileage... offense always a question, too
  • Kelce - new QB
I mean, if Gronk was gone I was mentally debating between Fournette and Barkley. Fournette's 3.9 ypc and ankle woes don't inspire confidence, but he's got a lot of upside if they improve at QB to take some defensive focus off of him. Barkley's obviously got a lot of upside and I think some of the possible landing spots are a lot better than they seem at first blush. The upside coupled with being relatively late in the first round make those two very appealing teams for this type of league. OZ, getting Evans to go with Fournette, is sitting on a lot of upside.

I couldn't pass on the upside of a healthy Gronk in a TE2ppr league. Obvious injury risk, but to win a league like this you need to catch a break (which can mean avoiding a literal break).

 
What am I missing with Brees?

I have him in a dynasty and can't get squat for him in a deal. 

 
What am I missing with Brees?

I have him in a dynasty and can't get squat for him in a deal. 
little surprising....but there is a chance some QB's start going soon (2-3 turn) so if you like someone I guess go ahead and go get them...learned my lesson last year across the board about waiting at QB so I'm not going to throw any shade....saw some predictions of almost half the league or something having a different QB to start the season....

 
My fantasy league website request. I am on vacation and it is a challenge to identify players. Could we get the league website where last uear’s Points scored will display for sorting?

missing draft dominator especially with very little time for picks.

thanks in advance!

 
FF Ninja said:
 Not to mention they lost their OC. The first round just feels scary in general this year. Was glad to be picking late-ish. 

  • Bell could very well not be on PIT next year Stud no worries he's in Pitt 
  • DJ lost Arians and Palmer - I want no part of him at his current price due to this. Palmer held on two years to long and Arians don't bother me, this is a broken wrist not a knee buying everywhere I can
  • Kamara - there was something in the water in New Orleans this past year... I sense a team-wide regression coming. This kid is the second coming of Chris Johnson with better hands, only reason I took DJ was because Ingram takes touches Saints Oline is elite. 
  • Cook - loss of OC plus QB turmoil increases risk Knee injury is risky, Minnesota will run and run more and Mckinnon is gone. 
  • Hopkins - if defense and ground game improve, his massive garbage time stats will dry up . Nope, Watson will feed him 
  • Hunt - Spencer Ware isn't a superstar, but he's going to have a role; Hunt's value was in being a bellcow , Spencer Ware is the definition of JAG, he will be 3rd/4th on the depth chart.
  • Gordon - yet to crack 4 ypc, leaving room for Ekeler's role to grow . Gordon is a compiler/grinder extra value in TD leagues. Ekler? really? I'm lukewarm on him too though
  • Barkley - rookie + unknown landing spot - top 5 pick even if he ends up in Cleveland will be a nasty player
  • OBJ - injury + QB questions + new offense - Will be fine
  • Gronk - injuries + retirement talks - Yeah I'm worried about him, played almost every game this year, 29, will retire the day Brady does I think ; knee back arm surgeries nasty concussion. 
  • McCoy - age, mileage... offense always a question, too - pass 
  • Kelce - new QB - Agree could be difficult to repeat last years numbers but often first time starting QBs need that security blanket.
I mean, if Gronk was gone I was mentally debating between Fournette and Barkley. Fournette's 3.9 ypc and ankle woes don't inspire confidence, but he's got a lot of upside if they improve at QB to take some defensive focus off of him. Barkley's obviously got a lot of upside and I think some of the possible landing spots are a lot better than they seem at first blush. The upside coupled with being relatively late in the first round make those two very appealing teams for this type of league. OZ, getting Evans to go with Fournette, is sitting on a lot of upside.

I couldn't pass on the upside of a healthy Gronk in a TE2ppr league. Obvious injury risk, but to win a league like this you need to catch a break (which can mean avoiding a literal break).
Boy you are a Debbie downer huh. rebuttals in BOLD

 
Boy you are a Debbie downer huh. rebuttals in BOLD
  • Bell - I like Bell, but there's no way you can tell me that if he leaves PIT it won't hurt his fantasy value a lot.
  • DJ - Say what you will, but Palmer and Arians were effective together. I'd say there's a 10% chance DJ's offense improves, 10% it stays the same, and 80% it devolves. I'll gladly let people like you buy.
  • Kamara = Chris Johnson? Bwhahaha
  • Cook - Who is Minnesota's new OC? I don't understand your confidence in their game plan. The system looked pretty good. No matter who was in the backfield, they looked good. Even Murray. He was slow coming off injury, but his last 8 games = 138-593-7. A change in OC and QB = uncertainty. Don't get me wrong, I'm not Keenum fan, but he was punching way above his weight somehow last year.
  • Hopkins - he won't feed him if it's not in the game plan. I'm also bracing for an RG3-esque sophomore slump from Watson.
  • Hunt - you're wrong about Ware. (Disclaimer: I own Ware in zero leagues)
  • Gordon - compilers are replaceable. 
  • Barkley - ok, I love Barkley and I think Cleveland could be a great spot (if Joe Thomas returns and they find a mediocre QB), but let's not pretend he has zero risk. The Giants were a hot mess last year and have a terrible OL. If Luck is broken, the Colts would be a terrible landing spot.
  • OBJ - if Eli falls off a cliff, nobody on that offense will be fine. They really need to work on that OL if they're going to squeeze anything more out of Eli.
I always prefer auction, but this year I will feel particularly good watching the studs and duds people bid these guys up.

 
  •  
  • Kamara = Chris Johnson? Bwhahaha
  • Hopkins - he won't feed him if it's not in the game plan. I'm also bracing for an RG3-esque sophomore slump from Watson.
  • Gordon - compilers are replaceable.
You always give good reasons on your responses this kamara one is odd. Did you watch kamara??? Kids elite has an elite oline and hof qb. So in hindsight i should of maybe taken him .  

I been on watsons jock since the beginning. So while his pace was not sustainable. I dont think rg3 regression will happen at all

Gordon is replacable. But the odds of it happening this year or ekeler making it some kind split are slim. Imo

 
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People thinking spencer ware is some kind of elite talent? Kc traded up for hunt and they kow what they have in ware. JAG city man. Hunt was going to put him on the bench even if ware didnt get hurt

 
You always give good reasons on your responses this kamara one is odd. Did you watch kamara??? Kids elite has an elite oline and hof qb. So in hindsight i should of maybe taken him .  
I love Kamara, have since the draft last year. I got him in the 11th round of a keep-forever league, so I should be as big a fanboy as anyone.

But he put up 315 fantasy points last year ... on 201 touches. That's "literally never been done before in NFL history" levels of unsustainable. But to justify him as an early 1st-rounder, you really do have to believe either that Ingram gets shipped out or that AK's level of per-touch production - a level that's never been done before - is going to repeat.

Spoiler alert: it's not.

 
You always give good reasons on your responses this kamara one is odd. Did you watch kamara??? Kids elite has an elite oline and hof qb. So in hindsight i should of maybe taken him .  

I been on watsons jock since the beginning. So while his pace was not sustainable. I dont think rg3 regression eill haopen at all

Gordon is replacable. But the odds of it happening this year or ekeler making it some kind split are slime. Imo
I mean, Chris Johnson ran for 2000 yards @ 5.6 ypc on a mediocre Jeff Fisher offense. I think you are doing him a disservice by comparing him to Kamara (and even saying Kamara is a CJ plus something else). I don't mean to say Kamara is a scrub, but that comparison is getting carried away. New Orleans went 7-9 for three years in a row with mostly the same people around. Last year just felt flukish. Ingram had a career year, too. A rising tide lifts all boats, so I think last year's perfect storm will result in it being Ingram and Kamara's career years. I know it seems crappy to say that when one of them is a rookie, but I feel very confident in it.

Ok, so RG3's slump was really bad, so I don't think it'll be as bad, but I can't get past the feeling that Rick Smith was taking a desperation shot with Watson and that Watson will turn out to be a mirage. His arm isn't strong and his accuracy is questionable. I hope I'm wrong, but I can't shake that Rick Smith stink off of him. Regardless, Hopkins garbage time stats are massive compared to other top 5 WRs. He's due for a big regression in 2018.

Gordon's value has come solely from volume. I think Ekeler has earned a bigger role. I mean, not a huge role, but big enough to drop Gordon down a tier. And the rookie RB depth is solid. Who knows what the Chargers will do? They drafted Mike Williams for no apparent reason last year...

Dude, nobody is saying Ware is an elite talent. You know there is a huge middle ground between elite and JAG, right? Ware is a much better pass blocker than Hunt and probably an equally capable receiver. He's also a good goal line back. He's only 26 and he'll be playing for a new contract. Reid likes him. I'm not super high on him, but I think he'll turn Hunt from a featured bellcow back into a lead committee back. Or at least the odds of that happening are enough to scare me off of Hunt. Also, don't forget Smith had a freaking awesome, unpredictable year. The odds of that offense regressing are pretty high.

 
I love Kamara, have since the draft last year. I got him in the 11th round of a keep-forever league, so I should be as big a fanboy as anyone.

But he put up 315 fantasy points last year ... on 201 touches. That's "literally never been done before in NFL history" levels of unsustainable. But to justify him as an early 1st-rounder, you really do have to believe either that Ingram gets shipped out or that AK's level of per-touch production - a level that's never been done before - is going to repeat.

Spoiler alert: it's not.
Over under on kamaras touches in 2018?  

 
Over under on kamaras touches in 2018?  
Back of the envelope calcs here, so take 'em with a grain of salt.

Last year the Saints fed 530 touches to their RBs. That was top-5 in the NFL, so I'd expect regression, but let's be generous and say they hit that number again. Of that 530, Ingram and Kamara combined for 489 - AP's gone, but I imagine there'll be another 3rd-stringer or fullback taking up that slack, so let's keep that figure also.

To get Kamara to 300 - which is historically where he'd have to be to have a shot at repeating his 315-point season - he'd have to get a 61% share of RB touches. That'd be a complete script-flip from last season. Even if you believe that Kamara's capable of handling that load, you have to wonder why Payton would do it. Why mess with what clearly worked so well?

So even at that elevated 489 figure, I'll guess it winds up about a 50-50 split, for 245 touches each. Even at 1.1 FPPT - which would still be elite production - that puts him at about 270 FP for the year. A solid figure for sure, but a big step down from 2017, and not worth a top-5 pick IMO.

 
Back of the envelope calcs here, so take 'em with a grain of salt.

Last year the Saints fed 530 touches to their RBs. That was top-5 in the NFL, so I'd expect regression, but let's be generous and say they hit that number again. Of that 530, Ingram and Kamara combined for 489 - AP's gone, but I imagine there'll be another 3rd-stringer or fullback taking up that slack, so let's keep that figure also.

To get Kamara to 300 - which is historically where he'd have to be to have a shot at repeating his 315-point season - he'd have to get a 61% share of RB touches. That'd be a complete script-flip from last season. Even if you believe that Kamara's capable of handling that load, you have to wonder why Payton would do it. Why mess with what clearly worked so well?

So even at that elevated 489 figure, I'll guess it winds up about a 50-50 split, for 245 touches each. Even at 1.1 FPPT - which would still be elite production - that puts him at about 270 FP for the year. A solid figure for sure, but a big step down from 2017, and not worth a top-5 pick IMO.
Good response. But given the other rbs available when he was taking. Ill draft him

 
there is a message at the top about our league being able to switch over to 2018....wondering if we should circle the wagons since we aren't too far in and catch the draft up on that one and start using it....might make the transition easier....

thoughts.....

 
there is a message at the top about our league being able to switch over to 2018....wondering if we should circle the wagons since we aren't too far in and catch the draft up on that one and start using it....might make the transition easier....

thoughts.....
Rookies are not available yet in 2018...wtf

 
there is a message at the top about our league being able to switch over to 2018....wondering if we should circle the wagons since we aren't too far in and catch the draft up on that one and start using it....might make the transition easier....

thoughts.....
We should but I don't have time to work on this today.

 

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