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BassNBrew

2018 FBG WSL1 Discussion Thread

275 posts in this topic

20 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

I love Kamara, have since the draft last year. I got him in the 11th round of a keep-forever league, so I should be as big a fanboy as anyone.

But he put up 315 fantasy points last year ... on 201 touches. That's "literally never been done before in NFL history" levels of unsustainable. But to justify him as an early 1st-rounder, you really do have to believe either that Ingram gets shipped out or that AK's level of per-touch production - a level that's never been done before - is going to repeat.

Spoiler alert: it's not.

Over under on kamaras touches in 2018?  

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2 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Over under on kamaras touches in 2018?  

Back of the envelope calcs here, so take 'em with a grain of salt.

Last year the Saints fed 530 touches to their RBs. That was top-5 in the NFL, so I'd expect regression, but let's be generous and say they hit that number again. Of that 530, Ingram and Kamara combined for 489 - AP's gone, but I imagine there'll be another 3rd-stringer or fullback taking up that slack, so let's keep that figure also.

To get Kamara to 300 - which is historically where he'd have to be to have a shot at repeating his 315-point season - he'd have to get a 61% share of RB touches. That'd be a complete script-flip from last season. Even if you believe that Kamara's capable of handling that load, you have to wonder why Payton would do it. Why mess with what clearly worked so well?

So even at that elevated 489 figure, I'll guess it winds up about a 50-50 split, for 245 touches each. Even at 1.1 FPPT - which would still be elite production - that puts him at about 270 FP for the year. A solid figure for sure, but a big step down from 2017, and not worth a top-5 pick IMO.

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5 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Back of the envelope calcs here, so take 'em with a grain of salt.

Last year the Saints fed 530 touches to their RBs. That was top-5 in the NFL, so I'd expect regression, but let's be generous and say they hit that number again. Of that 530, Ingram and Kamara combined for 489 - AP's gone, but I imagine there'll be another 3rd-stringer or fullback taking up that slack, so let's keep that figure also.

To get Kamara to 300 - which is historically where he'd have to be to have a shot at repeating his 315-point season - he'd have to get a 61% share of RB touches. That'd be a complete script-flip from last season. Even if you believe that Kamara's capable of handling that load, you have to wonder why Payton would do it. Why mess with what clearly worked so well?

So even at that elevated 489 figure, I'll guess it winds up about a 50-50 split, for 245 touches each. Even at 1.1 FPPT - which would still be elite production - that puts him at about 270 FP for the year. A solid figure for sure, but a big step down from 2017, and not worth a top-5 pick IMO.

Good response. But given the other rbs available when he was taking. Ill draft him

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there is a message at the top about our league being able to switch over to 2018....wondering if we should circle the wagons since we aren't too far in and catch the draft up on that one and start using it....might make the transition easier....

thoughts.....

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

there is a message at the top about our league being able to switch over to 2018....wondering if we should circle the wagons since we aren't too far in and catch the draft up on that one and start using it....might make the transition easier....

thoughts.....

 

 

Rookies are not available yet in 2018...wtf

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34 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

there is a message at the top about our league being able to switch over to 2018....wondering if we should circle the wagons since we aren't too far in and catch the draft up on that one and start using it....might make the transition easier....

thoughts.....

 

 

We should but I don't have time to work on this today.

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21 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

We should but I don't have time to work on this today.

I can make some time to go in as commish and catch the draft up on th enew site....just not sure how this changes things for people if they will have to resign in or whatever...

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ok I caught the draft up in the 2018 site.....you guys might need to go in and reset on new site....

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7 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

ok I caught the draft up in the 2018 site.....you guys might need to go in and reset on new site....

Thanks man

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I think we all need to make sure we're now using the 2018 page. I just got text notifications that Shadowfax made some picks, but they're only showing up on the 2017 page.

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I turned off the draft on the 2017 site. Owners should only be able to draft on the 2018 league site now.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

I think we all need to make sure we're now using the 2018 page. I just got text notifications that Shadowfax made some picks, but they're only showing up on the 2017 page.

Woke up, saw I was OTC and made my picks. Didn't realize there was a 2018 page yet. Up to speed now. 

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Tried to mix it up a bit this year and instead of going with a WR in the early third (to accompany Bell and T. Hill), chose Engram to take advantage of the additional points on receptions.  It was hard to pass up guys like Baldwin, etc., but I wanted to see how I would fair with a proper TE (I have historically punted on TEs in these leagues).

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Just now, Sweet Love said:

Tried to mix it up a bit this year and instead of going with a WR in the early third (to accompany Bell and T. Hill), chose Engram to take advantage of the additional points on receptions.  It was hard to pass up guys like Baldwin, etc., but I wanted to see how I would fair with a proper TE (I have historically punted on TEs in these leagues).

I cursed you for taking Hill. He probably wasn't making it back to 3.12 but I was hoping. Contemplated taking him over Evans back at 2.05

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15 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I cursed you for taking Hill. He probably wasn't making it back to 3.12 but I was hoping. Contemplated taking him over Evans back at 2.05

lol....

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PM'd Holloway.  Please pm the guys after you this round and let them know that they need to logged into 2017.  I was looking at the 2017 draft report and didn't realize i was otc.

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49 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

PM'd Holloway.  Please pm the guys after you this round and let them know that they need to logged into 2017.  I was looking at the 2017 draft report and didn't realize i was otc.

all are encouraged to set up the notifications as well....you can make it where you only get notified when you are OTC....kind of like a no brainer for these

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1 hour ago, Stinkin Ref said:

all are encouraged to set up the notifications as well....you can make it where you only get notified when you are OTC....kind of like a no brainer for these

Just to add to this, if you set up mobile notifications the first time around, you'll need to do it again for the new (2018) page. Personally, I have it set to text me each draft pick. But like Ref said, you can have it only text you when you're on the clock. You can also get the same notifications via e-mail.

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14 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

lol....

:shrug: I said it was unlikely.

Wasn't expecting Derrick Henry to make it back either. This tier is rather large IMO right now, this early in the pre season. 

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18 hours ago, -OZ- said:

I cursed you for taking Hill. He probably wasn't making it back to 3.12 but I was hoping. Contemplated taking him over Evans back at 2.05

I liked Hill in a format like this, and the QB change does not scare me.  Engram is the tricky one...I was going to go Baldwin or Landry for the consistency at WR, but a dependable TE would not be there for me at the end of the fourth, and I can likely cobble together some possession receivers going forward that can give me a decent floor on a week-by-week basis.

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Really like the Hilton pick that late.

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5 hours ago, -OZ- said:

:shrug: I said it was unlikely.

Wasn't expecting Derrick Henry to make it back either. This tier is rather large IMO right now, this early in the pre season. 

no worries...my lol was an inside joke from last year when I was all up on his nuts and everybody was busting my chops...with that said...no way in hell was he making it past 3.06

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2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Really like the Hilton pick that late.

Yep. He was on my very short list at 3.12, definitely was taking him 4.05

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2 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Yep. He was on my very short list at 3.12, definitely was taking him 4.05

He was in my pre-draft list for 4.03... was surprised to see him slip so far, but at the same time, I get it with the Luck injury concerns. 2017 was not kind to Hilton (57/996/4). 

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59 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

He was in my pre-draft list for 4.03... was surprised to see him slip so far, but at the same time, I get it with the Luck injury concerns. 2017 was not kind to Hilton (57/996/4). 

guess I wasn't super surprised....think there are some other guys still on the board (or like Diggs who went two picks later)...and a few others that I probably would have gambled on upside with over him ....Hilton finished as WR27 in this format last year and just went as WR20....guess I 'd have to be slam dunked convinced that his situation is going to improve at that price....and then to be value he would have to do even better than WR20...no idea about Luck or the direction of that offense/team....Hilton didn't miss any games and finished WR27.....and that's also with several guys like OBJ missing significant time or weird situations that would have probably bumped Hilton down into the 30's.....if Brissett remains the starter (which is looking like more of a possibility every day with not such good reports about Luck)...for a draft this early I don't like the pick that high with some of the other other options out there...:2cents:

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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Honestly, not real sure how I feel about having taken Wentz in the 4th as QB5. If he's back healthy I think it will end up being a great pick. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's in the top 2 next year.

But I took a big risk. He might not return and might not be 100% healthy if he does play week 1.  But I don't think he was getting back to me and he's a risk worth taking.

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11 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Honestly, not real sure how I feel about having taken Wentz in the 4th as QB5. If he's back healthy I think it will end up being a great pick. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's in the top 2 next year.

But I took a big risk. He might not return and might not be 100% healthy if he does play week 1.  But I don't think he was getting back to me and he's a risk worth taking.

Would you have taken Brady instead if I hadn't? Gut choice on my part - I usually wait on QB in these.

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Also I'm at the Eagles SB parade so I'm, shall we say, not entirely of sober mind. :suds:

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51 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

guess I wasn't super surprised....think there are some other guys still on the board (or like Diggs who went two picks later)...and a few others that I probably would have gambled on upside with over him ....Hilton finished as WR27 in this format last year and just went as WR20....guess I 'd have to be slam dunked convinced that his situation is going to improve at that price....and then to be value he would have to do even better than WR20...no idea about Luck or the direction of that offense/team....Hilton didn't miss any games and finished WR27.....and that's also with several guys like OBJ missing significant time or weird situations that would have probably bumped Hilton down into the 30's.....if Brissett remains the starter (which is looking like more of a possibility every day with not such good reports about Luck)...for a draft this early I don't like the pick that high with some of the other other options out there...:2cents:

I agree with most of what you said, but then again I've never been a huge Hilton fan. However, even I can't ignore his 2016 (91/1448/6) which was better than Julio's 2017 (88/1444/3). And if you look at his career, 2017 is the clear outlier. I had both Hilton and Diggs in my 4.03 predraft and I don't even remember which one I had ahead. I was just hoping to get one. They each carry their own risks, but have very high upside. 

--------------------

Semi-related to the above, Hilton was a bit of a surprise slip, but the guys that have surprised me on how early they went are Brees, Collins, and DT.

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21 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Would you have taken Brady instead if I hadn't? Gut choice on my part - I usually wait on QB in these.

Probably not over Wentz but it would have been close. 

I was really close to taking my wr2. He won't make it back either.

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Got to say that you guys are on top of your #### this year

Duckboy has #### blocked me twice on Keenan Allen and Jay Ajayi.

 

I  don't mind settling for Hunter Henry at TE with Gates a UFA , he has the record and now he can goto the HOF in 5 years

 

 

 

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Ajax was a very strong pick.  So was Henry.  I preferred Henry slightly over Graham, but thought Henry might slip.

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22 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

no worries...my lol was an inside joke from last year when I was all up on his nuts and everybody was busting my chops...with that said...no way in hell was he making it past 3.06

Ha, that was me. I think you took him way above his ADP last year. I guess it worked out for you, but I got basically the same production from Marvin Jones like five rounds later. Sometimes it works to play the ADP game, other times it doesn't. I think it is criminal that Marvin went WR26 in here (4.14), but I really thought he'd make it back to me at 5.14 due to the fact he somehow is still flying under the radar. Good on AR for scooping him up.

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Yuck...Lamar Miller at 5.02.  Felt there was a super drop right as I picked...my queue cleared out at the turn.  Lucky to get Funchess at 4.15, and tossed that value away with Miller.  Just did not really see anyone else I thought could get me a decent baseline of points.I am kind of boom/bust with Hill as my WR1, so I did not feel taking a higher upside guy was the right play.  I don't see Foreman as a threat in 2018, but we'll see.

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1 hour ago, Sweet Love said:

Yuck...Lamar Miller at 5.02.  Felt there was a super drop right as I picked...my queue cleared out at the turn.  Lucky to get Funchess at 4.15, and tossed that value away with Miller. 

I think with Bell in your pocket I'd have been tempted to punt RB for a couple rounds and go full RB2BC with a couple of 3rd-down backs and maybe a couple rookies. I'd love your team right now if you'd locked down someone like Cam or Big Ben on top of the squad you've got in place. Instead you're going to have to spend a couple upcoming picks on a QBBC and that might limit your flexibility more than you'd like.

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant
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1 hour ago, Sweet Love said:

Yuck...Lamar Miller at 5.02.  Felt there was a super drop right as I picked...my queue cleared out at the turn.  Lucky to get Funchess at 4.15, and tossed that value away with Miller.  Just did not really see anyone else I thought could get me a decent baseline of points.I am kind of boom/bust with Hill as my WR1, so I did not feel taking a higher upside guy was the right play.  I don't see Foreman as a threat in 2018, but we'll see.

hes solid points at RB, Houston wont cut him, Foreman is hurt badly , perhaps they spend a pick on a RB, but Houston doesn't have  a first or second rounder this year and they have much bigger needs IMO. So I think his role is safe, not sexy, but he is what he is

 

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Ha, that was me. I think you took him way above his ADP last year. I guess it worked out for you, but I got basically the same production from Marvin Jones like five rounds later. Sometimes it works to play the ADP game, other times it doesn't. I think it is criminal that Marvin went WR26 in here (4.14), but I really thought he'd make it back to me at 5.14 due to the fact he somehow is still flying under the radar. Good on AR for scooping him up.

lol..yeah I think it was you and a few others.... Mr. I comes to mind...

in 2016 Hill finished WR18....in 2017 I took him as WR17 in one WSL and WR24 in the other....I did a little digging and from what I can see across the board Hill's 2017 ADP was in fact right around WR20 in most leagues fantasy wide....so not a tremendous reach as it turned out and actually decent value as he finished WR9....he sat out week 17 or he might have been top 7 leapfrogging Theilan and Julio...he was not as much value as say Theilan or Marvin by any means....guys are gonna get lucky and hit it out of the park sometimes....but I don't really recall anybody pounding the table for either of those guys like I did for Hill and correctly predicting that I wouldn't be surprised if he finished top 10....just sayin...;)

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13 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

lol..yeah I think it was you and a few others.... Mr. I comes to mind...

in 2016 Hill finished WR18....in 2017 I took him as WR17 in one WSL and WR24 in the other....I did a little digging and from what I can see across the board Hill's 2017 ADP was in fact right around WR20 in most leagues fantasy wide....so not a tremendous reach as it turned out and actually decent value as he finished WR9....he sat out week 17 or he might have been top 7 leapfrogging Theilan and Julio...he was not as much value as say Theilan or Marvin by any means....guys are gonna get lucky and hit it out of the park sometimes....but I don't really recall anybody pounding the table for either of those guys like I did for Hill and correctly predicting that I wouldn't be surprised if he finished top 10....just sayin...;)

Are we talking Pryor drafts???

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