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Dynasty: Is the 2018 draft class still considered strong? (1 Viewer)

Concept Coop

Concept Coop

Footballguy
My excitement for this class has really waned.  Harris and Love going back to school really hurt.  Sutton's stock dropping like a rock really hurts.  Barkley and Ridley are the only NFL 1st round locks at RB/WR - and Ridley has his warts.  The 2nd and 3rd round of rookie drafts will offer great value, but the first round is pretty meh, outside of Barkley.  

Anybody else a lot less bullish on the 2018 draft class than they were a couple months ago?

 
I was never a big Harris or Love guy so them staying in school doesn’t change much for me. Barkley and Guice is the best 1-2 punch at RB in years, and I don’t have Ronald Jones too far behind them.   The WR group lacks a true #1 star but has a lot of good talent that will be fantasy starters for years.  The NFL draft will push some guys way up the board ala Perine last year.  I think the talent runs pretty deep until around the mid 2nd range this year.  

 
the combine should fuel the rookie hype.

I've always thought this class had good depth, but light on the high end. I think there will be quality through the Top 24 ish, and worthy fliers after that.

 
Concept Coop said:
My excitement for this class has really waned.  Harris and Love going back to school really hurt.  Sutton's stock dropping like a rock really hurts.  Barkley and Ridley are the only NFL 1st round locks at RB/WR - and Ridley has his warts.  The 2nd and 3rd round of rookie drafts will offer great value, but the first round is pretty meh, outside of Barkley.  

Anybody else a lot less bullish on the 2018 draft class than they were a couple months ago?
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I have only watched 3 players much so far, so no idea.

I will say that some of the talk about how great this draft class was going to be, especially at RB is something I have been skeptical of all along. When folks were saying 2018 RB group as good or better than 2017? Yeah I have always doubted that. As you say with Harris and Love not declaring, the depth of talent has been weakened somewhat.

I think this happens every year. The build up and anticipation of a draft class gets people overly excited. Then once the smoke begins to clear a bit and the players get their tires kicked, nits packed and things don't look so rosy as they did before.

Now maybe I end up watching some great players in the weeks ahead and I start to agree more with those earlier impressions if I do, Barkley is great. What I have seen of Chubb and Michel so far does not have me valuing them over most of the top RB from 2017 though. I don't think this RB group is as good as 2017 was, even if Harris and Love were in it.

 
Biabreakable said:
I have only watched 3 players much so far, so no idea.

I will say that some of the talk about how great this draft class was going to be, especially at RB is something I have been skeptical of all along. When folks were saying 2018 RB group as good or better than 2017? Yeah I have always doubted that. As you say with Harris and Love not declaring, the depth of talent has been weakened somewhat.

I think this happens every year. The build up and anticipation of a draft class gets people overly excited. Then once the smoke begins to clear a bit and the players get their tires kicked, nits packed and things don't look so rosy as they did before.

Now maybe I end up watching some great players in the weeks ahead and I start to agree more with those earlier impressions if I do, Barkley is great. What I have seen of Chubb and Michel so far does not have me valuing them over most of the top RB from 2017 though. I don't think this RB group is as good as 2017 was, even if Harris and Love were in it.
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I think it's close with Harris and Love.  Granted, I was much lower on McCaffrey (and Foreman and Perine) than most.  

Barkley
Fournette
Cook
Mixon
Guice
Michel
McCaffrey
Love
Kamara
Harris
Hunt
Jones
Penny
Johnson

 
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I like it a lot. 

QB. I like the depth and top guys here. One of the better ones. More excited about this years over last by quite a bit. Some nice depth and see a Garoppolo type out coming on out of the White, Benkurt, Laudela type

RB. Love the group overall. And with Raback. Barkley easily better than last year and I like a Guice and Jones over Cook from last year in Concepts group. Also. Live the depth as big Ballege fan

WR. I think better than last year but agreed no stud. I do like Washington but in a better Golden Tate. But better depth overall and top as good even if they drop in draft because OL is way better this year. 

TE. Not as good as year ago but this is deeper group. Some nice talent Ina Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry or Jason Witten type of way. See 5 guys having nice careers

LB. Really like this years group. Some nice fantasy names if you play IDP

very excited. 

 
Yeah, I’m with you. I like Barkley and Guice but have become lukewarm on the rest of the group. Think Jones needs the perfect situation and will be a committee guy regardless, same with Chubb. Those two would actually make a good 1-2 punch. I think Sony could be a 3 down guy but his age drops him some for me, he’s only a bit younger than Gurley who’s been in the league 3 years. He really has to hit the ground running. Ridleys another older dude who needs to hit the ground running being 24 during his rookie season. Older guys in college worry me a bit. It’s like a Senior in high school dominating JV. Not super high on any of the other WRs. Agree that there will be good value in the 2nd this year cause after the first 4-5 guys depending on how things breaking there’s potentially 10-15 guys in a group. That said I think Barkley and Guice are top tier guys in any year. Going with this thought I traded three 1sts for the 1.01.

 
Crippler said:
WR. I think better than last year but agreed no stud. I do like Washington but in a better Golden Tate. But better depth overall and top as good even if they drop in draft because OL is way better this year. 
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Good write-up.  I have to disagree with you here, however.  Corey Davis was a least a tier ahead of any WR in this class.  I'd say Mike Williams would be the top WR in this class as well.  

 
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Going strictly by NFL.com grades for 2016, 2017, & 2018...

QB

Darnold 7.1

Wentz & Goff 6.5

Trubisky 6.3

Josh Rosen 6.1

Mayfield, Lamar Jackson 6.0

Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson 5.9

Mahomes 5.8

Dak Prescott 5.4

RB

Barkley 7.5

Zeke Elliot 7.0

Fournette 6.8

Guice 6.4

Ronald Jones 6.4

Dalvin Cook 6.2

Derrick Henry & Jordan Howard 6.1

Mixon & McCaffery 6.0

Kamara & Sony Michel 5.9

Kerryon Johnson & Penny 5.8

Foreman 5.7

Booker & Dixon 5.7

Chubb, Freeman, Scarborough 5.6

Hunt, Wadley, & Walton 5.5

Ballage 5.4

WR

Ridley 7.0

Mike Williams & Corey Davis 6.2

Fuller & Treadwell 6.2

John Ross & Josh Doctson 6.1

Deon Cain & Corey Coleman 6.0

Sterling Shepard 5.9

JuJu, Pettis, Sutton, Westbrook, Samuel 5.8

Washington, Kirk, Gallup, Chark 5.7

TE

Howard 6.5

Njoku 6.3

Henry Hunter 6.2

Engram 6.0

Everett & Gesicki 5.9

Shaheen, Hurst, Goedert 5.8

Auston Hooper 5.7

Andrews 5.7

Edited to add in some of the higher ranked players from 2016.

 
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The Darnold and Ridley grades really jumps out... but to touch upon the QBs, I think it is a very strong class and I can see drafting one of four on every one of my teams depending on who falls where (Rosen, Darnold, Jackson and Mayfield).

Same with the TEs, i'll end up with one of four on every roster (Andrews, Goedert, Gesicki or Fumagalli )

That's 8 players. I know I can find a dozen RBs I would roster, WRs maybe 10. That's 30 players, so even top have 3rd rounders have some appeal to me

 
Concept Coop said:
My excitement for this class has really waned.  Harris and Love going back to school really hurt.  Sutton's stock dropping like a rock really hurts.  Barkley and Ridley are the only NFL 1st round locks at RB/WR - and Ridley has his warts.  The 2nd and 3rd round of rookie drafts will offer great value, but the first round is pretty meh, outside of Barkley.  

Anybody else a lot less bullish on the 2018 draft class than they were a couple months ago?
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Remember last April when everyone was splooging over 2018 picks?

 
class is loaded still IMO, Sony Michel is as good as anyone in last years class too.  The WR while no Julio is there, has some nice depth and players from small schools I like in Gallup to name one

 
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Crippler said:
TE. Not as good as year ago but this is deeper group. Some nice talent Ina Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry or Jason Witten type of way. See 5 guys having nice careers
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Guess I need to look deeper, as I haven't seen it quite as deep as OJ, engram, njoku, everett, Shaheen, butt, Jonnu and Kittle. Not to mention guys who looked like they had potential like Hodges and leggett.

 
Still love this class. Considering I already have Barkley and Guice plus the 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 10th pick. I’m in the process of trading that 10th pick for a 2019 1st rounder. It will likely be a top 5 pick so it’s a win for me.

Tex

 
This seems to happen every year. Before the off season everyone is really excited about 3-4 guys, and then the rest of the class comes out, people see more of the prospects and get excited about them. Then they realize the class is deeper than they thought, creating more excitement and discussion for the rest of the class (if its warranted or not always remains to be seen)

I think this is just where we are in the cycle. People have time to pick prospects apart more, comb over stats and "tape", theorize landing spots and factor that in to some sort of early success indicator or whatever.

This started with a few players being hyped, mainly Saquan, Guice, Sutton, maybe Chubb, Ridley to an extent. Now we are a few players deeper, Michel, Washington, Kirk, Jones.

Next will be the most athletic TE and some lesser known WR, and the pattern repeats itself as the dynasty community has more exposure to mocks and twitter and yada yada

 
Draft looks solid to me right now but I just can't make a definitive conclusion until NFL draft but comping it to how I felt about last years class post NFL draft:

QB- this position is an afterthought, I don't recall a QB going in round one of a rookie draft since Luck/RG3 so not impactful either way but to me it's deeper than I thought last years draft was, even after the NFL draft when QB's went higher than I expected.

RB-  Barkley beats any RB from last years class and Guice I'd have put in group of Fournette/Cook/Mixon/CMC. All in all while RB is super deep again I think just a little off last year in terms of RB's in the 3-6'ish range but here is where landing spot can be huge because I felt last year that the 4 RB's I just referenced above had what I viewed as negative landing spots.  So if guys like Guice/Jones land in ideal landing spots I'll rank them higher post draft then I did those 4 RB's last year post draft. 

WR- I think it's slightly deeper than last season, similar at the top and deeper.

TE- not quite up to last year but again a deep group.

I think it's going to be a deep draft with quality options in upper to middle second round but how high we rate the draft will ultimately depend on where the upper echelon RB's land, with a chance that I will view picks in the 2-6 range higher than last year(1.1 already more valued).

 
Answers will vary on this question. It all depends on what you are measuring this by. What, last year???? Hell, that was one of the best performance of any class at the QB, WR, TE and RB positions E.V.E.R!!!!  If Watson hadn’t got hurt, with the performance of Engram, Hunt, Kamara, McCaffrey, Fournette, Cooks and JuJu it’s not fair to compare any class to that! And we haven’t seen Mixon with a decent line or the growth of Howard, Njoku, Williams, Davis, etc......

If you didn’t have multiple picks last year then you certainly missed out on the best draft we’ll see in some time so it’s not wise to judge this year based off last year. The year before was a decent class as well.

The Truth, we have been spoiled by the last few years and many are expecting/wanting the same excitement in some of the upcoming drafts and you are just setting yourself up for failure. Study, read, analyze and stick to your board every year regardless of who declares and your hard work will pay off.

Meno, I just read your post. My post was’nt directed at you but it kinda proves my point. We look at last year and we’ll compare it to this year but last year was an outliner. We just won’t see anything like that for awhile if ever again.

Tex

 
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menobrown said:
So if guys like Guice/Jones land in ideal landing spots I'll rank them higher post draft then I did those 4 RB's last year post draft. 
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I think this is what it comes down to for me.  I liked Mixon, Cook, Davis, Williams, McCaffrey a lot more than I do Guice, Jones, Michel, Ridley, Sutton.  It's the 1.02 - 1.06 range that I feel the most bummed about.  

I do like Guice and would put him in the Cook/Mixon tier, but those 2 projected to be much more involved in the passing game.  

I just don't see Michel or Jones being in that tier for me. 

Ridley is a stud, but he's really old for a rookie (never mind a true Jr.) and doesn't have the build we'd prefer.  He's also being mocked to some awful landing spots, whereas Davis and Williams got a boost for theirs.  Granted, that could absolutely change.  

 
BigTex said:
We look at last year and we’ll compare it to this year but last year was an outliner. We just won’t see anything like that for awhile if ever again.
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Great point.  I should have picked a better title/posed a better question, as I think we can all agree it's a strong class.  Just nowhere near as strong as it looked a couple months ago; especially if we compare it to last year.  

 
Concept Coop said:
Great point.  I should have picked a better title/posed a better question, as I think we can all agree it's a strong class.  Just nowhere near as strong as it looked a couple months ago; especially if we compare it to last year.  
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I think we all in some fashion are guilty of looking at this year and comparing it to last year but it’s fairly safe to say you won’t be able to compare 2019 to this class either and there are some serious studs especially at WR and RB that could declare.

What really, really made 2017 such a great class? Why was it so perfect? I’ll submit to you three things that took place OR didn’t happen but it happens to nearly every year.

1. There were studs that could have declared for the 2016 class but decided to return and entered the 2017 class which help bolster an already great class.

2. IIRC, EVERYONE we thought would declare for the 2017 class ACTUALLY DID!!! No one returned to school for another year. When was the last time this happened?

3. Many of the players from last year landed in ideal spots. Either they landed on a team that had good talent around them which made them better than expected, they were draft to a team with the scheme to match their talent or they ended up being a starter their when no one was really expecting it.

Tex

 
FF Ninja said:
Feels like a really exciting class for RB and QB. Statistically, there will probably be a couple unheralded WR gems in there. 
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I agree, I also like the TE's. Although the TE's aren't as good as last year, they are better than most years IMO.

IMO, the WRs are very poor at the top, but there is some good depth there and there will be some gems to try to find.

 
The nfl has a ton of opportunity right now for these rbs. Just off the top of my head. All these teams could draft a starter at rb this year:

Baltimore. Detroit. Washington. Tampa. Nyg. Nyj. Oakland. Seattle. Cleveland. Indy. San fran.

Not to mention other teams that need depth. Miami. Chargers. Tennessee if demarco moved on. 

 
BigTex said:
Answers will vary on this question. It all depends on what you are measuring this by. What, last year???? Hell, that was one of the best performance of any class at the QB, WR, TE and RB positions E.V.E.R!!!!  If Watson hadn’t got hurt, with the performance of Engram, Hunt, Kamara, McCaffrey, Fournette, Cooks and JuJu it’s not fair to compare any class to that! And we haven’t seen Mixon with a decent line or the growth of Howard, Njoku, Williams, Davis, etc......

If you didn’t have multiple picks last year then you certainly missed out on the best draft we’ll see in some time so it’s not wise to judge this year based off last year. The year before was a decent class as well.

The Truth, we have been spoiled by the last few years and many are expecting/wanting the same excitement in some of the upcoming drafts and you are just setting yourself up for failure. Study, read, analyze and stick to your board every year regardless of who declares and your hard work will pay off.

Meno, I just read your post. My post was’nt directed at you but it kinda proves my point. We look at last year and we’ll compare it to this year but last year was an outliner. We just won’t see anything like that for awhile if ever again.

Tex
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I agree the 2017 draft class was one of the better groups of RB I have seen since perhaps 2008. It was very good.

That is why I have been skeptical of folks saying this crop would be better. Kind of hard for that to be true compared to last year.

The 2017 TE group best I think I have ever seen. So yeah there may be some good TE from 2018 (I dunno yet) but I really doubt it is as good as last years.

2017 WR were not that great though. Still maybe some higher NFL picks at WR in 2017 than there may be this year.

It is the same thing as trying to compare the WRs since 2014 to the 2014 WR group. Thats one of the best if not the best group of WR I have ever seen. May have to back to the year where Marvin Harrison and TO were the stars of an otherwise good and deep WR group. That is how good 2014 WR were. Really not fair to compare drafts since then to it at WR.

There does seem to be a lot of good QB this year. I thought the 4 QB from 2017 were pretty good also, but maybe this group of QB is better? I dunno QB always the hardest players for me to evaluate.

 
Concept Coop said:
I think this is what it comes down to for me.  I liked Mixon, Cook, Davis, Williams, McCaffrey a lot more than I do Guice, Jones, Michel, Ridley, Sutton.  It's the 1.02 - 1.06 range that I feel the most bummed about.  

I do like Guice and would put him in the Cook/Mixon tier, but those 2 projected to be much more involved in the passing game.  

I just don't see Michel or Jones being in that tier for me. 

Ridley is a stud, but he's really old for a rookie (never mind a true Jr.) and doesn't have the build we'd prefer.  He's also being mocked to some awful landing spots, whereas Davis and Williams got a boost for theirs.  Granted, that could absolutely change.  
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I really like Ridley, but I think he is going to be a better NFL player than a fantasy player.

For fantasy I think he is a WR two. Not sure if there are any WR ones this year. Last year Davis was the only WR one for me.

 
Biabreakable said:
I really like Ridley, but I think he is going to be a better NFL player than a fantasy player.

For fantasy I think he is a WR two. Not sure if there are any WR ones this year. Last year Davis was the only WR one for me.
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in retrospect isn't JuJu a one? at least talent wise?

 
Aunt Jemima said:
in retrospect isn't JuJu a one? at least talent wise?
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I still consider him a WR two for fantasy purposes.

He did perform better than I expected him to as a rookie though.

To expand on this my definition of a WR one is a player who I think has a good chance to finish in the top 12 in fantasy. There are usually about 20 of those players at any given time, some years perhaps a few more other years a few less.

Then there are the WR twos who have the upside to finish in the top 13-24 for fantasy, but not likely top 12. There are usually about 40 of those players at any given time, some years perhaps a few more other years a few less.

Then you have your WR threes who are guys you don't likely want to be starting every week, but still have top 25-36 upside, but not likely in the WR two range. This is basically the rest of the WR that has a pulse, so 100 or so players. I suppose you could try to differentiate between a WR three and a WR five but we are getting close to below replacement level value with those WR fours anyways, so I don't really bother.

As long as Antonio Brown is the top Steelers WR then it is very unlikely that JuJu will become one in the same season.

JuJu's performance as a rookie was very good and he finished as WR 20 in PPR or standard scoring leagues. It is reasonable to expect him to improve as a player with more experience. So its not out of the question that at some point down the road he becomes a WR one. I don't think I would project him to do so in the next 3 seasons however, with Antonio Brown in his way to a target share that could lead to a top 12 fantasy season.

 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
The nfl has a ton of opportunity right now for these rbs. Just off the top of my head. All these teams could draft a starter at rb this year:

Baltimore. Detroit. Washington. Tampa. Nyg. Nyj. Oakland. Seattle. Cleveland. Indy. San fran.

Not to mention other teams that need depth. Miami. Chargers. Tennessee if demarco moved on. 
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I'd add Miami and Denver to the top list, but then again, maybe I'm missing the boat on Drake. PIT should also be there since Bell is a free agent. Not sure if Oakland will move on from Lynch or not. He looked good to me. Seattle has Carson.

Either way, we're looking at about a dozen places that will possibly need starters, but keep in mind there will be quite a few free agents and cuts: Bell, Hyde, Crowell, Dion, Collins, and McKinnon are all free agents. CJA and DeMarco are strong cut candidates. 

 
FF Ninja said:
I'd add Miami and Denver to the top list, but then again, maybe I'm missing the boat on Drake. PIT should also be there since Bell is a free agent. Not sure if Oakland will move on from Lynch or not. He looked good to me. Seattle has Carson.

Either way, we're looking at about a dozen places that will possibly need starters, but keep in mind there will be quite a few free agents and cuts: Bell, Hyde, Crowell, Dion, Collins, and McKinnon are all free agents. CJA and DeMarco are strong cut candidates. 
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you seem pretty convinced that Bell wont be in Pitt or something, if they don't have a deal hes franchised again

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
you seem pretty convinced that Bell wont be in Pitt or something, if they don't have a deal hes franchised again
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I think the odds are greater than 50% that he returns to PIT, but it's not a stone cold lock like you seem to think. He turned down what seemed to be a very fair contract last year. He's made comments about sitting out a season or retiring if they franchise him again. I don't get the confidence that he'll be back. I mean, I think it'll happen, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

 
FF Ninja said:
I think the odds are greater than 50% that he returns to PIT, but it's not a stone cold lock like you seem to think. He turned down what seemed to be a very fair contract last year. He's made comments about sitting out a season or retiring if they franchise him again. I don't get the confidence that he'll be back. I mean, I think it'll happen, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
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He said after the playoffs he was planning on being back and would sign a franchise offer if tendered. He wants to be back, they will give him a fair deal imo. 

 
FF Ninja said:
IMHO, they gave him a very fair deal last year that he rejected.
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And now he's a year later, older, and with $14M in the bank.  His agent has had a year to convince him that perhaps that's the best he's going to get.  That it could be a lot worse for him than making another $30M-$50M playing for a perennial SB contender.  Bell may not be the sharpest tool in the shed but even he is capable of learning and adapting.

 
Hankmoody said:
And now he's a year later, older, and with $14M in the bank.  His agent has had a year to convince him that perhaps that's the best he's going to get.  That it could be a lot worse for him than making another $30M-$50M playing for a perennial SB contender.  Bell may not be the sharpest tool in the shed but even he is capable of learning and adapting.
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:shrug:  I guess we'll see. Again, I think they'll offer him a fair deal and I think he should take it, but let's not pretend anything is a :IBTL:  to happen. Bell clearly has an inflated sense of worth. He's really good, but the system helps and RBs just don't get paid like they used to.

Also, sorry to nitpick, but he only got $12M last year. I'm guessing if they franchise him again, it would be something along the lines of $14M.

 
What's a couple million dollars amongst friends? ;)

Not sure how you're inferring I think anything is a lock, I was simply pointing out there are plenty of reasonable factors that might influence Bell's decision this year.

 
FF Ninja said:
I'd add Miami and Denver to the top list, but then again, maybe I'm missing the boat on Drake. PIT should also be there since Bell is a free agent. Not sure if Oakland will move on from Lynch or not. He looked good to me. Seattle has Carson.

Either way, we're looking at about a dozen places that will possibly need starters, but keep in mind there will be quite a few free agents and cuts: Bell, Hyde, Crowell, Dion, Collins, and McKinnon are all free agents. CJA and DeMarco are strong cut candidates. 
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Lamar Miller is a cut candidate as well, although IMO the Texans keep him.

 
FF Ninja said:
IMHO, they gave him a very fair deal last year that he rejected.
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Yeah I agree. I’m just noting what he said in an interview after the loss. Looked for the interview but can’t find it, but he said straight up he would sign a franchise tender this year. Certainly have to take emotions and interview timing into consideration, and I hope I can drum up where I got this info so you don’t have to rely on my word. For sure nothing is a lock, but I’m leaning strongly that he will be back. 

It seems I’d find it somewhere but can’t, so now I’m doubting myself.  I’m sure I heard those words come out of his mouth after the Jacksonville game. Seems it would get reported after he  said he’d retire, so perhaps I’m mistaken here. 

 
BigTex said:
Meno, I just read your post. My post was’nt directed at you but it kinda proves my point. We look at last year and we’ll compare it to this year but last year was an outliner. We just won’t see anything like that for awhile if ever again.
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No problem, I just used last year as a reference since it's fresh on everyone's mind. For the record I thought last year was a bit overrated, especially the depth.

For the past 5 years, post NFL draft I list players I feel worth a first round rookie pick.  Hard to define what that means exactly but one way I'd put it is if I can get one of my first round players when I'm OTC I am good making that pick, if I can't I'd rather move the pick for a future #1. In drafts I'll typically exhaust every effort I can to move up  late 1's/seconds to pick one of my first round graded players and as soon as the last one is gone I'm usually out. A guy I grade as a first round player means I got enough confidence in them to eventually blossom that no matter how bad year one might be, I'm keeping for year two.

I mainly play in FFPC rules leagues so I rate TE's higher, with that in mind over the last 5 years this is the amount of players I assigned first round grades. I got a ton of mistakes,  ton's, but that's another subject:

2017- 11 (3 TE's)

2016- 7 ( 1 TE)

2015- 11 (1 TE)

2014-  9 (1 TE)  At the time I thought this was the deepest second round I'd ever seen, but I did not have guys like A-Rob, Lee, Jordan Mathews, Benjamin as first round guys. Had them as second round guys. In hindsight I view this as the deepest draft I've seen since I've been dynasty rookie drafts, with my first one being in 2012 so not an exhaustive history.

2013- 8 (1 TE)

Just providing all that for context. Can't say where this years class will end up, but I feel right now that it's likely going to be in the 7-9 range so in terms of first round guy  so me not super deep but strong at the top. The second round looks pretty deep right now but even in what is considered a strong draft class like last year we did not see a lot of consensus second round hits. I say consensus because Kamara or Hunt sometimes went second round but I was in drafts they went as high as 6/7 and most drafts they went in round 2. JuJu to me was the massive consensus second round hit. Kupp was a solid hit but I drafted him as late as 3.8.  Since I play in so many FFPC leagues, which has tight roster spaces, I don't value the later round picks as much which is why I focus so much of how I grade a draft on first round graded players. Don't have roster room to wait out some of the later round fliers.

 
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menobrown said:
No problem, I just used last year as a reference since it's fresh on everyone's mind. For the record I thought last year was a bit overrated, especially the depth.

For the past 5 years, post NFL draft I list players I feel worth a first round rookie pick.  Hard to define what that means exactly but one way I'd put it is if I can get one of my first round players when I'm OTC I am good making that pick, if I can't I'd rather move the pick for a future #1. In drafts I'll typically exhaust every effort I can to move up  late 1's/seconds to pick one of my first round graded players and as soon as the last one is gone I'm usually out. A guy I grade as a first round player means I got enough confidence in them to eventually blossom that no matter how bad year one might be, I'm keeping for year two.

I mainly play in FFPC rules leagues so I rate TE's higher, with that in mind over the last 5 years this is the amount of players I assigned first round grades. I got a ton of mistakes,  ton's, but that's another subject:

2017- 11 (3 TE's)

2016- 7 ( 1 TE)

2015- 11 (1 TE)

2014-  9 (1 TE)  At the time I thought this was the deepest second round I'd ever seen, but I did not have guys like A-Rob, Lee, Jordan Mathews, Benjamin as first round guys. Had them as second round guys. In hindsight I view this as the deepest draft I've seen since I've been dynasty rookie drafts, with my first one being in 2012 so not an exhaustive history.

2013- 8 (1 TE)

Just providing all that for context. Can't say where this years class will end up, but I feel right now that it's likely going to be in the 7-9 range so in terms of first round guy  so me not super deep but strong at the top. The second round looks pretty deep right now but even in what is considered a strong draft class like last year we did not see a lot of consensus second round hits. I say consensus because Kamara or Hunt sometimes went second round but I was in drafts they went as high as 6/7 and most drafts they went in round 2. JuJu to me was the massive consensus second round hit. Kupp was a solid hit but I drafted him as late as 3.8.  Since I play in so many FFPC leagues, which has tight roster spaces, I don't value the later round picks as much which is why I focus so much of how I grade a draft on first round graded players. Don't have roster room to wait out some of the later round fliers.
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Do you mind sharing who those 7-9 players might be?  I’d be interested to see who you have ranked as a 1st rounder

 
Boone22 said:
Do you mind sharing who those 7-9 players might be?  I’d be interested to see who you have ranked as a 1st rounder
Click to expand...
7-9 is just a guess and otherwise just looks like a long list of the prospects.  There are a few players that could get drafted to worst conceivable scenario we could come up with and they would still be first round picks unless injury/off field stuff was at play but most are subject to what happens in the draft. Also the combine matters to me and for me it can usually break you more than make you so that will likely trim some of this list.

I would likely have these players are first round picks no matter what happens: Barkley, Guice, Jones, Michel, Ridley.

This group of players I feel are more likely than not to be first round graded: Sutton, Kirk, Washington

This group slants more on situation/combine impacting how I grade them: Kerryon ,Cain, Chubb, Freeman, Penny. 

More long shots but not out of realm of possibility:  Mark Walton, Anthony Miller, Michael Gallup, Pettis, Chark

I've ommitted TE's but in FFPC there are a few that could get first round grades but not seeing any right now that would be first round picks without a strong landing spot and even then, despite some success lately spending first round picks on rookie TE's, I'm beginning to think it's not the best strategy.

This grouping could look foolish in May, just how I have them now.

 
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