Is Bilal Powell worth 3.10 Rookie Pick (1 Viewer)

In a 12 team PPR league of QB - RB - WR - TE (no kickers  / defense)...  I'm not worried about roster and such.  Simple question, is Powell & pick 4.07 worth giving up pick 3.10?  I have my first two round picks.  We can start 1 to 5 of each RB - WR - TE, and one QB.  

I would probably rather have Powell to drop back 9 picks in the late 3rd early 4th.  If you have the roster space I would take the gamble because you are basically giving up nothing.

Thanks, Gally...  I was leaning that way as it may give me a little flexibility, so now, here is my roster:

QB:  Stafford, Mariota, Garoppolo, Bortles, Brissett, 
RB:  Gurley, D Murray, L Murray, J Williams, Kelley, Forte, McGuire (TS)
WR: Hilton, Anderson, Thielen, Benjamin, Jeffery, R Matthews, Humphries, Cole, Bourne
TE:  Kelce, Njoku, Burton, Witten

With this group, went 10 - 3 and led the league in scoring for the regular season. Ended up in 3rd in playoffs.  

I like Powell side... maybe he can get some work in.

Good information. I would do the deal.  Hanging onto Jimmy G is looking like a good move.  

Unless its a start up draft, any pick in a competitive dynasty league after the second round has almost zero value.  By the mid third round there is no longer any real consensus on value, so the player you want is likely to be there a round later or even on the wire at the end of the draft.  If you feel that Powell is worth adding off the wavier wire, than you make that trade since you are basically giving up nothing.

Brisco54 said:

Unless its a start up draft, any pick in a competitive dynasty league after the second round has almost zero value.  By the mid third round there is no longer any real consensus on value, so the player you want is likely to be there a round later or even on the wire at the end of the draft.  If you feel that Powell is worth adding off the wavier wire, than you make that trade since you are basically giving up nothing.

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I strongly disagree with this.  This is a deep class and there will be a lot of QB/TE value in the 3rd.  Patrick Mahomes was a 4th round pick last year, and this class is even deeper at QB. 

Concept Coop said:

I strongly disagree with this.  This is a deep class and there will be a lot of QB/TE value in the 3rd.  Patrick Mahomes was a 4th round pick last year, and this class is even deeper at QB. 

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Coop, I think you misunderstand my post.  Regardless of the strength of a class, consensus fails by the 3rd round.  In fact, deeper drafts are more likely to have less consensus.  

Ask ten experienced dynasty owners to rank the top 15 rookies, and their lists will be 80-90% similar... therefore a pick in that range is more valuable because if you do not select the player, someone else surely will.  Consensus starts to fade after that and by the mid 3rd round, or pick 30 overall, those same ten owners might give you ten different answers on who is the next best rookie.  Pick 3.10 is the 34th pick overall.  At that point, it goes beyond possible to probable that the player you want to add will still be there on the wire after the draft is over because consensus is gone.

On a side note... there is a reason that consensus is gone by that point.  I did a ten year analysis of the top 36 ranked rookies in dynasty drafts by ADP and by the third round the "hit" rate (Player became worth a 2d round rookie pick three years after the draft) was under 25%... and that low hit rate was relatively consistent in years where the draft was considered deep or shallow.  In the first two rounds the hit rate for WR was about 65% if drafted in the 1st round and 45% if drafted in the 2d... and most interestingly, 2d round RBs had a higher hit rate than 1st round RBs.