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February mock draft with trades (1 Viewer)

Bracie Smathers

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
  1. (TRADE)  NYJ  QB Sam Darnold 
  2. NYG QB Josh Rosen
  3. IND RB Saquon Barkley
  4.  CLE QB Baker Mayfield
  5.  DEN DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
  6.  (trade) CLE DE Bradley Chubb
  7.  TB LB Tremaine Edmonds
  8. (TRADE) ARI QB Josh Allen
  9. SF LB Roquan Smith
  10. OAK CB Denzel Ward
  11. MIA EDGE Marcus Davenport
  12. CIN OT Conner Williams
  13. WAS DT Da'Ron Payne
  14. GB OG Quenton Nelson
  15. (trade) CHI WR Calvin Ridley
  16. BAL OT Mike McGlinchey
  17. LAC DT Vita Vea
  18. SEA SS Derwin James
  19. DAL DT Murice Hurst
  20. DET RB Derrius Guice
  21. BUF OC/OG Billy Price
  22. BUF EDGE Harold Landry
  23. LAR CB Josh Jackson
  24. CAR TE Dallas Goedert
  25. TEN DE Sam Hubbard
  26. ATL OG Isaiah Wynn
  27. NO WR Christian Kirk
  28. PIT OT Orlando Brown
  29. JAX OG Will Hernandez
  30. MIN DT Harrison Phillips
  31. NE CB Isaiah Oliver
  32. PHI LB Rashaan Evans
--------------------------------------

Explanation for each pick

  • *TRADE* NYJ QB Sam Darnold -- Jets willing to move up for a QB.  
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jets-gm-mike-maccagnan-is-willing-to-trade-up-in-the-draft-for-a-quarterback/

Jets GM Mike Maccagnan is willing to trade up in the draft for a quarterback 
Click to expand...
Browns aren't sold on any QB at the top of the board and can get one with the #4 pick.  (Jets give up their #2 this year and 1st next.)

  • NYG Josh Rosen --  G-Men can't bypass rare opportunity to get a franchise QB.  Rosen has excellent footwork and accuracy.  I really like him.
  • IND RB Saquon Barkley -- Wanted to give them Chubb but Barkley gets tough yards and keeps drives alive.  I've come around on this pick.
  • CLE QB Baker Mayfield --  If the Jets take Mayfield Darnold slides, if Darnold and Mayfield are gone then Rosen is available.  
  • DEN DB Minkah Fitzpatrick -- Provided Elway signs Cousins.  Aqib was part of the deal for Alex Smith.  I think they want to move on.
  • *TRADE* CLE DE Bradley Chubb -- Tempted to put LB Tremaine Edmonds here but take blue chip pass rusher.
  • TB LB Tremaine Edmonds -- Love Edmonds and think he will be a monster.
  • *TRADE*  ARI QB Josh Allen -- Carson Palmer retired.  Dire need.  Make bold move and get their guy.  (ARI gives 2nd this year and 1st next)
  • SF LB Roquan Smith -- Slight reach.  Tempted to take the OG but go with Roquan.
  • OAK CB Denzel Ward -- Ward the top corner?  Ohio State trainer said he's going to test out bigger and stronger than expected.
  • MIA EDGE Marcus Davenport -- Unblockable in Senior Bowl practices and in the game.  Riser at pass rusher tend to rise in draft.
  • CIN OT Conner Williams -- Dire need filled with top OT.
  • WAS DT Da'Ron Payne --  Two Bama DTs in the middle create an interior push.
  • GB OG Quenton Nelson -- The fall ends.  Pack gets dominant guard.
  • (trade) CHI WR Calvin Ridley -- Chicago drops and gets WR they wanted and regain the pick they gave up for Trubisky plus extras.
  • BAL OT Mike McGlinchey -- Tough O-Lineman.  Fills need without reaching.
  • LAC DT Vita Vea -- Run stuffer who can run.  Planet theory in action.
  • SEA SS Derwin James -- Falls right into the lap of Seahawks.
  • DAL DT Murice Hurst -- Best interior pass rusher in the draft.
  • DET RB Derrius Guice -- Too obvious?  Probably for real life but in this mock it fits.
  • BUF OC/OG Billy Price -- Fills need and versatile.
  • BUF EDGE Harold Landry -- Can play LB if needed.
  • LAR CB Josh Jackson -- Best cover guy in draft but might fall if he doesn't run a sub 4.5 forty.
  • CAR TE Dallas Goedert -- He looks much better than where he goes in most mock drafts.
  • TEN DE Sam Hubbard -- Need more pass rush.
  • ATL OG Isaiah Wynn -- Need with best player at position.
  • NO WR Christian Kirk --  Great draft last year.  Kirk could get them another solid player.
  • PIT OT Orlando Brown --  Steeler-type of O-Lineman.  Big, strong, raw and can develop into something special.
  • JAX OG Will Hernandez --  Could go a number of directions.  Go with 'safe' pick.
  • MIN DT Harrison Phillips --  One of the best defenses gets better.
  • NE CB Isaiah Oliver --  Seeking DB help after SB fiasco.
  • PHI LB Rashann Evans --  Great value here.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Andy Dufresne said:
I like it. Tremaine Edmunds is this year's Haason Reddick.
Click to expand...
The tape doesn't look real.  The fact he's only 19 might allow him to fall due to the fact his body will change and he's already 270 lbs so he 'could' lose some speed.

 I love his explosion to the ball and lateral movement which should not slow down.  I've never seen anything like him.

 
Nice effort but hate the Packers pick.  The interior of their offensive line is solid and with a new D coordinator and all the defensive talent available they'll take a defensive lineman, edge rusher or another DB. 

 
Pipes said:
Nice effort but hate the Packers pick.  The interior of their offensive line is solid and with a new D coordinator and all the defensive talent available they'll take a defensive lineman, edge rusher or another DB. 
Click to expand...
There's something to be said about r taking BPA which Nelson would clearly be at that point.

In the mock I closed without saving :hot: I had the pack taking Josh Jackson the CB from Iowa.

I gave Edmunds to Chicago and Nelson to San Fran.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Pipes said:
Nice effort but hate the Packers pick.  The interior of their offensive line is solid and with a new D coordinator and all the defensive talent available they'll take a defensive lineman, edge rusher or another DB. 
Click to expand...
Thanks.  To drill down a bit on the Nelson pick.

Nelson is akin to Zack Martin who was a Pro Bowler as a rookie. 

He's rare to the point I would not be shocked if he goes as high as #7 to Tampa Bay. 

He is a dominant run blocker.

I understand need but at some point you have to take value and Nelson is the last of four blue chip talents in this draft IMHO.

 
TripleThreat said:
I'd be surprised if MIA took back to back DEs (Charles Harris last yr) but stranger things have happened. 
Click to expand...
Point noted.

Harris wasn't starting but played in all 16 games.  He came away with only 2 sacks but had 3 TFL and 2 PD which indicates he was penetrating and being disruptive but was not coming away with traps.  

Wake is 36 so he won't be around much longer.  Branch is only 28 but he only had 1.5 sacks.

They could use more pressure from the EDGE.

 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles traded #32 and try to pick up a 2nd and/or 3rd round pick.  Going into the draft, they have a 1st, 2-4th, 2-5th, and a 6th.

 
The Browns spanked the Jets on the trade - I don't see that happening in real life. Jets just can't afford to give up assets like that.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
The Browns spanked the Jets on the trade - I don't see that happening in real life. Jets just can't afford to give up assets like that.
Click to expand...
Agreed. No one is giving up a 1st and 2nd to move up 5 spots. In some drafts maybe, but not this one.

 
Ben & Jerry's said:
Agreed. No one is giving up a 1st and 2nd to move up 5 spots. In some drafts maybe, but not this one.
Click to expand...
They could if whoever is at 2 is after the same QB, which could be very, very likely.

Top 3-4 picks likely to be QBs, so if you want your top ranked, you'll likely have to pony up

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I will throw up on your lunch if the Lions draft a RB first round. Get Landry or Vita or Hurst. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I will throw up on your lunch if the Lions draft a RB first round. Get Landry or Vita or Hurst. 
Click to expand...
Sounds pleasant. Vita or Hurst in the 1st is who I prefer at this moment. I wouldn’t be opposed to a 2nd rd RB though. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
The Browns spanked the Jets on the trade - I don't see that happening in real life. Jets just can't afford to give up assets like that.
Click to expand...
People said the same thing about the Eagles when they traded up for Wentz and the Rams traded up for Goff.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I like it. Tremaine Edmunds is this year's Haason Reddick.
Click to expand...
Can he play DE in a 4-3, because that's what Tampa would need him to do.  I would think they take Vea or Nelson in this scenario.

I wanted to believe in Davenport, but he looked outclassed to me at the Senior Bowl.

When is the Shark Pool mock?!

 
I think Hubbard could be alright but he seems more like a 4-3 guy. I'm not real sure he's a guy Vrabel or Pees would get excited about. Maybe.

Isaiah Wynn would fit in nicely on the Titans OL and any time you can help Marcus and Henry I'd like it.  But I do think they'll prefer to go defense, Rashaan Evans seems like a good fit. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
The Browns spanked the Jets on the trade - I don't see that happening in real life. Jets just can't afford to give up assets like that.
Click to expand...
I'm guessing this will happen.  I'm doubtful that Darnold is their target, though.  I also see Indy trading out of #3 and QBs going 1-2-3.

Edit to add:  Maybe the #3 makes more sense for the Jets.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dr. Octopus said:
The Browns spanked the Jets on the trade - I don't see that happening in real life. Jets just can't afford to give up assets like that.
Click to expand...
Every NFL draft trade chart shows:  http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/  

http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php      https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

  • top pick 3,000 points
  • 6th pick 1,600 points
Jets pick in 2nd round is 37 

  • 37th pick worth 530 points
Gap of 870 points which basically equals Dallas' 1st round pick this year at #19.  Future first round picks hold less value than first round picks today much like taking out a loan, i.e., time valuation of money = time valuation of NFL draft picks.  The rule of thumb is any future pick is one round lower and the top pick of the 2nd round this year is pick 33 which is the Browns pick and it is worth only 580 points.  Add that together and you have a gap of 290 points which is how the NFL would view the deal because that is how they value the picks.

First round picks today that equal the Browns top pick are NY Jets 1st pick at #6 and CHI Bears 1st pick at #8. 

How much would it take you to get the 8th pick because THAT equals exactly 3,000 points which is how much the top pick is worth and it definitely is worth that much to move up for a potential franchise quarterback.

 
daveR said:
I'm guessing this will happen.  I'm doubtful that Darnold is their target, though.  I also see Indy trading out of #3 and QBs going 1-2-3.

Edit to add:  Maybe the #3 makes more sense for the Jets.
Click to expand...
My take on how the QBs will go off the board is that the top two will go #1 and #2.  I don't think that anyone is going to move up for Mayfield because he's more of a risk.  Just my opinion.

 
I also doubt that Indy would spend #3 on a RB.  They have a ton of more important spots to fill, IMO.

 
daveR said:
I also doubt that Indy would spend #3 on a RB.  They have a ton of more important spots to fill, IMO.
Click to expand...
I did as well but my thought changed when I thought of Andrew Luck and how much a top-five NFL RB would help him.  Luck is the franchise and having a Saquon Barkley would take pressure off of him, allow drives to continue, put them in more third and short situations rather than third and longs, help to keep Luck from scrambling which is how he has gotten injured in the past.  

Like I said in my explanation, I have come around on the Colts picking Saquon Barkley.

 
daveR said:
I'm guessing this will happen.  I'm doubtful that Darnold is their target, though.  I also see Indy trading out of #3 and QBs going 1-2-3.

Edit to add:  Maybe the #3 makes more sense for the Jets.
Click to expand...
Browns fans want it to happen of course. It won’t.

Plus the Browns would have to be inept to let other teams pick which QB falls to them. They must identify which QB they like the best and take him. If they get cute and get burned, that’s a disaster if that guy works out and the one they settle for doesn’t.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If I’m a Browns fan and they trade the first pick and come out of the first round with Mayfield and Chubb I’m gonna be homicidal.

 
Jets have stated they are willing to move up to draft a QB.

Cecil Lammey speculates that the Broncos could move up.

https://247sports.com/nfl/denver-broncos/Bolt/Report-Broncos-may-move-up-for-No-1-pick-in-2018-NFL-draft-114884536

Report: Broncos may move up for No. 1 pick in 2018 NFL draft

... assuming they don't acquire quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Click to expand...
Cecil Lammey‏Verified account @CecilLammey

FollowFollow @CecilLammey

Cecil Lammey Retweeted Matt Miller

depending on what happens with Cousins, I wouldn't be surprised to see the #Broncos trade up to no1 overall. #NFLDraft @1043TheFan

Cecil Lammey added,

Matt Miller @miniwheatz007

Replying to @CecilLammey

If we don’t get cousins do you see Denver being very aggressive in the draft?

6:42 PM - 6 Feb 2018

===========================================================

If two teams start bidding, the price would go up far more than a 2nd this year and a 1st next.

If Denver does not get Cousins they are going to be aggressively trying to trade up for the #1 pick.

 
petekrum said:
If I’m a Browns fan and they trade the first pick and come out of the first round with Mayfield and Chubb I’m gonna be homicidal.
Click to expand...
That sounds like a dream scenario assuming that get great value in the trade.  Chubb is an animal and I think all of these top qb's are about the same.  No clear cut 1.  Chubb with Garrett could be sick

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Jets have stated they are willing to move up to draft a QB.

Cecil Lammey speculates that the Broncos could move up.

https://247sports.com/nfl/denver-broncos/Bolt/Report-Broncos-may-move-up-for-No-1-pick-in-2018-NFL-draft-114884536

Cecil Lammey‏Verified account @CecilLammey

FollowFollow @CecilLammey

Cecil Lammey Retweeted Matt Miller

depending on what happens with Cousins, I wouldn't be surprised to see the #Broncos trade up to no1 overall. #NFLDraft @1043TheFan

Cecil Lammey added,

Matt Miller @miniwheatz007

Replying to @CecilLammey

If we don’t get cousins do you see Denver being very aggressive in the draft?

6:42 PM - 6 Feb 2018

===========================================================

If two teams start bidding, the price would go up far more than a 2nd this year and a 1st next.

If Denver does not get Cousins they are going to be aggressively trying to trade up for the #1 pick.
Click to expand...
What a GM says in December or what a radio host guesses now means very little.

As a Browns fan aren’t you tired of the Browns always trading down and in the process giving up superstar players like Julio, Wentz, Watkins, Watson, etc. to gain lower value assets that don’t pan out? I’m not saying that as an insult, I’m just thinking I’d be pissed as a fan if my team was always punting in big decisions. The Browns need to take the QB that they evaluate will be the best in the class. They can’t let 2-3 other teams make the decision of who their QB will be for them.

As a Jets fan I wouldn’t be terribly upset in Mac identified his guy and traded up to get him - but at that cost I’d think they should pass since this team has too many holes to fill. Of course if The guy they get is a stud the sting will be less.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
What a GM says in December or what a radio host guesses now means very little.

As a Browns fan aren’t you tired of the Browns always trading down and in the process giving up superstar players like Julio, Wentz, Watkins, Watson, etc. to gain lower value assets that don’t pan out? I’m not saying that as an insult, I’m just thinking I’d be pissed as a fan if my team was always punting in big decisions. The Browns need to take the QB that they evaluate will be the best in the class. They can’t let 2-3 other teams make the decision of who their QB will be for them.

As a Jets fan I wouldn’t be terribly upset in Mac identified his guy and traded up to get him - but at that cost I’d think they should pass since this team has too many holes to fill. Of course if The guy they get is a stud the sting will be less.
Click to expand...
What I think is that NFL teams feel that Darnold and Rosen are clearly the top-two franchise QBs from this draft and that many are scared of Mayfield and Josh Allen is a lessor value due to accuracy and level of competition but that the Browns new GM Dorsey isn't as adverse about Mayfield and would be open to trading down as long as he can get him.

I think he can get Baker with the #4 pick.  I don't think anyone would move up for him but would for Darnold or Rosen.

If Dorsey can get his guy and one of the top-three blue chip players from this draft that he would be fine.  If Dorsey can get his guy and one of the top-four blue chip players plus extras he would do it and be happy.

I'm not sold on any of the QBs so I'm open if Dorsey can trade down and still get his guy and I think he can.

 
Amused to Death said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles traded #32 and try to pick up a 2nd and/or 3rd round pick.  Going into the draft, they have a 1st, 2-4th, 2-5th, and a 6th.
Click to expand...
Makes sense to try to flip that pick for a couple later ones since it is such a late pick already.

This draft is deep at the QB position so I can see a team wanting to move up for that pick, draft a QB and have the 5th year option available to them, the main benefit of 1st round picks compared to other picks.

 
Ilov80s said:
I will throw up on your lunch if the Lions draft a RB first round. Get Landry or Vita or Hurst. 
Click to expand...
Interesting.

When I saw Guice landing with the Lions it made me think that would make their offense a lot more challenging to defend. He has really good vision and runs inside well. Has enough speed to get the edge and create explosive plays.

His route running kind of sucks, but that is what Riddick is for.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
What I think is that NFL teams feel that Darnold and Rosen are clearly the top-two franchise QBs from this draft and that many are scared of Mayfield and Josh Allen is a lessor value due to accuracy and level of competition but that the Browns new GM Dorsey isn't as adverse about Mayfield and would be open to trading down as long as he can get him.

I think he can get Baker with the #4 pick.  I don't think anyone would move up for him but would for Darnold or Rosen.

If Dorsey can get his guy and one of the top-three blue chip players from this draft that he would be fine.  If Dorsey can get his guy and one of the top-four blue chip players plus extras he would do it and be happy.

I'm not sold on any of the QBs so I'm open if Dorsey can trade down and still get his guy and I think he can.
Click to expand...
So if he identifies Mayfield as the QB he wants but thinks according to the mocks that he can get him at 4, and trades the pick to Denver and they take Mayfield or some one else like the Jets moves to 3 to take Mayfield - then the Browns lose again.

It would be foolish for the Browns not to take their top guy at 1.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
So if he identifies Mayfield as the QB he wants but thinks according to the mocks that he can get him at 4, and trades the pick to Denver and they take Mayfield or some one else like the Jets moves to 3 to take Mayfield - then the Browns lose again.

It would be foolish for the Browns not to take their top guy at 1.
Click to expand...
From what I have heard, take this with a grain of salt, but from what I've heard.  Dorsey isn't sold on any one particular guy with the top pick but he isn't as afraid of Mayfield and would take him.  Meaning, he would be happy with any of the top-three QBs whereas most NFL teams only have two guys at the top.

The Giants aren't going to move because they don't have the luxury of the #4 pick and they don't have Mayfield on the same level as Rosen/Darnold.  

The Broncos got to see both Mayfield and Josh Allen since they coached the Senior Bowl.  Elway took a guy in the 1st a few years ago who had warts and it didn't work out for him.  He'd love to land Cousins but I don't realistically see that happening or he'd have to gut the team to make his contract fit.  That leaves one option.  Move up to get one of the top-two guys and the 2nd pick isn't going to deal because they are taking one of the top-two guys.  

I think Dorsey can get Mayfield at 4 and his blue-chip player and extras.  Just my opinion.

 
I like the Bears' trade-down but I don't like their pick - I'm not excited about Ridley, even at pick 15. I'd rather see them trade down again, or go OT (McGlinchey), or take any of the next several defenders to come off the board (Vea, James, Hurst, Landry, Jackson).

 
I think the Steelers would likely take Evans over Brown if it falls like this, although I like the value with Brown at that pick. Both Gilbert and Villanueva are going to man the T spots for at least the next two seasons barring injury. Replacing Shazier is far more important than a 3rd tackle right now. As is getting a CF at the safety spot since Mitchell is likely gone. 

Really good mock Bracie, I like a lot of your thinking here. 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
I think the Steelers would likely take Evans over Brown if it falls like this, although I like the value with Brown at that pick. Both Gilbert and Villanueva are going to man the T spots for at least the next two seasons barring injury. Replacing Shazier is far more important than a 3rd tackle right now. As is getting a CF at the safety spot since Mitchell is likely gone. 

Really good mock Bracie, I like a lot of your thinking here. 
Click to expand...
Is Shazier done?

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Is Shazier done?
Click to expand...
Nothing official, but I suspect he is. He can't even walk without help, it's hard to see him laying lumber in 6 months. I think the focus going forward is going to be on living a normal life rather than playing football. 

He was the linchpin of the whole defense, his absence was glaring last year. They desperately need someone that can make plays in that spot. They were starting Sean Spence late in the season, a street free agent (although one who had previously been with the team.) That's not going to cut it. They're not going to find someone with his stupifying speed in the draft (he beat Brown and Heyward-Bey in a footrace in training camp), but they need some sort of facsimile. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK said:
I like the Bears' trade-down but I don't like their pick - I'm not excited about Ridley, even at pick 15. I'd rather see them trade down again, or go OT (McGlinchey), or take any of the next several defenders to come off the board (Vea, James, Hurst, Landry, Jackson).
Click to expand...
A good offensive tackle could make the Bears offensive line one of the better ones in the league I think.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Nothing official, but I suspect he is. He can't even walk without help, it's hard to see him laying lumber in 6 months. I think the focus going forward is going to be on living a normal life rather than playing football. 

He was the linchpin of the whole defense, his absence was glaring last year. They desperately need someone that can make plays in that spot. They were starting Sean Spence late in the season, a street free agent (although one who had previously been with the team.) That's not going to cut it. They're not going to find someone with his stupifying speed in the draft (he beat Brown and Heyward-Bey in a footage in training camp), but they need some sort of facsimile. 
Click to expand...
Oh that is too bad.  Then yep, your are right. 

They would need someone but you can't replace Shazier that easily.  They could go LB but Ryan had rare speed.  No one they could get that late would be able to equal what he brought to that defense.  They might opt for the big safety in that case.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Nothing official, but I suspect he is. He can't even walk without help, it's hard to see him laying lumber in 6 months. I think the focus going forward is going to be on living a normal life rather than playing football. 

He was the linchpin of the whole defense, his absence was glaring last year. They desperately need someone that can make plays in that spot. They were starting Sean Spence late in the season, a street free agent (although one who had previously been with the team.) That's not going to cut it. They're not going to find someone with his stupifying speed in the draft (he beat Brown and Heyward-Bey in a footage in training camp), but they need some sort of facsimile. 
Click to expand...
This is sad. I really enjoy watching Shazier.

 
Biabreakable said:
Interesting.

When I saw Guice landing with the Lions it made me think that would make their offense a lot more challenging to defend. He has really good vision and runs inside well. Has enough speed to get the edge and create explosive plays.

His route running kind of sucks, but that is what Riddick is for.
Click to expand...
He certainly would help the offense. The Lions really do need an upgrade at RB but   that can be had later in the draft. I don't think a RB is worth a first round pick. 

 
Ilov80s said:
He certainly would help the offense. The Lions really do need an upgrade at RB but   that can be had later in the draft. I don't think a RB is worth a first round pick. 
Click to expand...
I think I agree with that for the most part.

Guice would be a good fit though. Not sure if he falls to the 2nd round or not.

 
With Gareon Conley paired with Denzel Ward the Raiders are trying for the all Ohio State DB group. I like the Ward pick Bracie. The Raiders need CB help bigly.

 
Biabreakable said:
This is sad. I really enjoy watching Shazier.
Click to expand...
He just turned 25 at the beginning of the season and is already a two-time Pro Bowler and was still improving season to season.  His instincts and play diagnosis was finally catching up to his absurd physical gifts.  Guy had a possible HOF career in the offing when the injury occurred.  Just a crying shame for everyone involved, but as Tomlin would say : "Such is life in the NFL."  :kicksrock:

 
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