hoffman0001
Footballguy
As we get into the "business season" (I.E. no games). What players are you looking to trade for this year that has poor years that you think you can "flip" for a nice return for owners that may have given up too soon? Here are some on my radar. This is the season where deals can be made and values can be had. This time last I targeted Gurley in every league and got him. It paid off in spades.
My Criteria:
A. Significant Upside
B. Recent poor performance that will result in a discount if the current owner is frustrated
C. Factors that can help take that upside and turn it into a nice value. This includes coaching changes, improved cast around them, return from an injury, etc.
QB:
A. LUCK: Upside is significant, but risk is high given the past two years of production. Surrounding talent might need some work, and a trade might payoff more in 2019 then 2018. That being said his price might NEVER get this low.
D. CARR: Still young, has lots of talent, and has a new coach who is know for quick turnarounds. This roster has quality options for him to throw too. He fell off a cliff in 2017, and went from being a sexy pick to a forgotten man. Love his likely discount, high upside profile.
J Winston: Warning This is a very distant 3rd on my list. His has upside, but he is also trending poorly and he should have done better. I would only go after him if I could get a real deal. For example if someone has him on their roster as like a 3rd or 4th QB based on performance and you can get him for a thorw away player or a late rookie pick then he would be worth the gamble.
RB:
D. Johnson: Obvious pick here. If you can leverage his injury and uncertainty to get him at a discount, I think it's worth making an offer. His talent should keep him in the discussion as a top 5-10 back IMO. If you can pay a lower price, go for it.
D. Murray: He is likely out in TEN which could be a win/win for all involved. If he ends up on a good team with lead dog (1st and 2nd down) and goal-line back, I think his value is higher then many might expect given his production this year.
J Ajayi: Assuming Blount moves on, I like this potential. He moved mid-season and never really got integrated equal to his past production. He is on a stacked roster, and I think they will re-design the running game to make him the lead dog in 2018
D. Lewis: Look at his fantasy playoff production and you see the upside here. He will likely move on and he did not really shine in the SB. He is still young and has proven is limited action he can be dominant when given the touches. I think he is a nice value and might be a player to target as owners clear roster space for rookies. I don't think he will be cut but a discount could be gotten.
WR:
M. Evans: Huge upside but his value has really fallen off after this year. Still a young elite talent. You need to ride the Winston roller coaster so not for the faint of heart.
B. Cooks: The first year in NE was a disappointment but the potential is there, I'm still a buyer at the right price. He also was a no-show in the SB which should tamp done his value.
Crabtree/Cooper: I think both of these guys have big upside with the OAK revival, and can be had at a steep discount.
TE:
G. Olsen: Yes he is up there in age, but the price is likely right if your a TE away from winning in your league. He is a rental, but a nice one.
J. Graham: I'm a buyer because he still has the skills and was not used correctly in SEA. He has show he is recovered from his knee and can still be elite when given the ball.
This is not a definitive list, and I'm sure it will get picked apart with valid debate. This is a starting point, please add your own.
My Criteria:
A. Significant Upside
B. Recent poor performance that will result in a discount if the current owner is frustrated
C. Factors that can help take that upside and turn it into a nice value. This includes coaching changes, improved cast around them, return from an injury, etc.
QB:
A. LUCK: Upside is significant, but risk is high given the past two years of production. Surrounding talent might need some work, and a trade might payoff more in 2019 then 2018. That being said his price might NEVER get this low.
D. CARR: Still young, has lots of talent, and has a new coach who is know for quick turnarounds. This roster has quality options for him to throw too. He fell off a cliff in 2017, and went from being a sexy pick to a forgotten man. Love his likely discount, high upside profile.
J Winston: Warning This is a very distant 3rd on my list. His has upside, but he is also trending poorly and he should have done better. I would only go after him if I could get a real deal. For example if someone has him on their roster as like a 3rd or 4th QB based on performance and you can get him for a thorw away player or a late rookie pick then he would be worth the gamble.
RB:
D. Johnson: Obvious pick here. If you can leverage his injury and uncertainty to get him at a discount, I think it's worth making an offer. His talent should keep him in the discussion as a top 5-10 back IMO. If you can pay a lower price, go for it.
D. Murray: He is likely out in TEN which could be a win/win for all involved. If he ends up on a good team with lead dog (1st and 2nd down) and goal-line back, I think his value is higher then many might expect given his production this year.
J Ajayi: Assuming Blount moves on, I like this potential. He moved mid-season and never really got integrated equal to his past production. He is on a stacked roster, and I think they will re-design the running game to make him the lead dog in 2018
D. Lewis: Look at his fantasy playoff production and you see the upside here. He will likely move on and he did not really shine in the SB. He is still young and has proven is limited action he can be dominant when given the touches. I think he is a nice value and might be a player to target as owners clear roster space for rookies. I don't think he will be cut but a discount could be gotten.
WR:
M. Evans: Huge upside but his value has really fallen off after this year. Still a young elite talent. You need to ride the Winston roller coaster so not for the faint of heart.
B. Cooks: The first year in NE was a disappointment but the potential is there, I'm still a buyer at the right price. He also was a no-show in the SB which should tamp done his value.
Crabtree/Cooper: I think both of these guys have big upside with the OAK revival, and can be had at a steep discount.
TE:
G. Olsen: Yes he is up there in age, but the price is likely right if your a TE away from winning in your league. He is a rental, but a nice one.
J. Graham: I'm a buyer because he still has the skills and was not used correctly in SEA. He has show he is recovered from his knee and can still be elite when given the ball.
This is not a definitive list, and I'm sure it will get picked apart with valid debate. This is a starting point, please add your own.
How does that not hurt him? He's never been very efficient with his targets. Well, I take it back. He had one year where he caught 69%. But historically he only catches about 60%, has a low YPR, and low TD rate. Dude needs volume. Any threat to volume will tank his fantasy value. 
