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Hankmoody's too-early pre-combine Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

Hankmoody

Hankmoody

Footballguy
Still a bit early for mine.  I do a lot during/after combine but here's a preliminary list by position.  I do two rankings - first is my Player Ranking, which is purely a talent play.  A guy like Penny, for example, is getting a lot of flack about whether or not he translates to the NFL's passing game.  I will make that determination later, but right now I am in love with his physical talent.  "If" he can't catch or block, and "if" if goes to a bad situation, and "if" he gets into an RBBC - that's all for later.  Right now I'm assuming they end up with a coaching staff that will get 100% of their talent out of them, that's how these lists are built.  I also emphasize ceiling over floor.  I have no interest in a safe 11 PPG guy - those guys are readily available via trade any year.  I want to end up with Duke Johnson (RB17 in PPR!) and not Isiah Crowell in 3 years. 

After the NFL draft I'll create my Draft List.  That's a very different list which takes the situation into account and interleaves the positions.  It will also be tweaked by league - size (more emphasis on QB), scoring, and opponent behavior. 

Tier 0 - no brainer, just draft and forget.  Future FF stud.  Situation is irrelevant aside from the fact it may take a year or two to fix - see Gurley, Todd.
Tier 1 - future FF starter POS1.  May not be elite but he's gonna be a guy you start every week.  Maybe he ran a 4.58 or only caught 12 passes in college.  Melvin Gordon.
Tier 2 - POS1/POS2 type.  Maybe a limited ceiling due to skillset .  Probably going to flash immediately and might be a strong flip candidate.  Jordan Howard type.
Tier 3 - upside shots.  FF wildcard and lots of roster killer types here.  Guys you just can't bring yourself to resist because "what if" but realistically not a big chance they make it big.  You can't carry many of these guys but you gotta draft a couple every year and see who hits.  Yeti Carson.

RB
Tier 0 - Barkley, Guice
Tier 1 - Penny, Kerryon Johnson, mystery RB #1
Tier 2 - Jones, Michel, Freeman, Chubb
Tier 3 - Ballage, Wadley

I am keeping a secret on my last Tier 1 guy because I haven't heard a peep about him yet and I don't want to crack that egg.  I know my league members are on these forums and I am not going to be the one that gets them thinking "hmm, that guy eh?  Maybe I'll check him out more...".   They may discover him, but it won't be from me - good thing I don't have paying customers I'm stealing from.  Suffice to say I'll be grabbing him in all of my drafts mid/late.  That's the next Kamara IMO.

WR
disclaimer - I no longer draft WR early.  They take too long to develop and reach value and they are too easy to poach after week 8 for a hot ticket item.  I love drafting Chris Carson and trading him for Mike Williams in week 5.  Love it.  I'll take shots at later guys and if they miss I'll just find the other believer in my league and let him carry him on taxi for 2 more years while I grab Robby Anderson (or Chester Rodgers /sigh) off waivers.
Tier 0 - N/A
Tier 1 - Ridley, Anthony Miller, Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk
Tier 2 - Sutton, Washington, Deon Cain, DaeSean Hamilton, Auden Tate, Simmie Cobbs
Tier 3 - Alan Lazzard, Richie James, Daurice Fountain, Marcel Ateman, Trey Quinn

Still some names left to slot, Keke Coutre is really interesting - I saw him play and whoa.  Washington is growing on me and I will probably bump him up.  I love guys with long arms that know how to use them.  So many body-catches nowadays.  There are a ton ton ton of upside guys in this draft.  FF round 2 is going to create some league powerhouses over the next couple of years.  In my IDP league I am trying desperately to move some guys for late 2/early 3rd and create room on my taxi squads.

TE
Tier 0 - N/A
Tier 1 - Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst
Tier 2 - Troy Fumagali
Tier 3 -  Ian Thomas, Alan Breneman

Another deep positional draft, and there are a few left for me to look into.  Marcus Baugh is super intriguing.  Big-time recruit but a terrible TE system for him at OSU. 

QB
disclaimer - Situation and coaching for me affects my Draft List a LOT more than any other position. 
Tier 0 - N/A
Tier 1 - Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen,
Tier 2 - Sam Brad I mean Darnold
Tier 3 - Lamar Jackson, Kyle Allen, Kenny Hill

Remember, my list is based on assuming the team is going to maximize the QB's talents.    Josh Allen has tools you can't find in most guys and if Mayfield is enabled to do the things on the NFL field he could in college we're going to have a fantasy bonanza on our hands.   I don't actually believe Lamar Jackson, Allen, and Hill are equally likely to find success, but if Allen or Hill do, they are the most likely candidates to be the Dak Prescott of this draft.

I'll do IDP in the IDP forum, that place needs all the traffic it can get.

 
thanks for sharing this and your thoughts.

I'm starting to wonder about the gestation period of rookie WRs. We went from Year 3 breakout to getting some studs that produced in Year 1 and 2, and now owners are accepting more time is needed (like QB and TE). Maybe it's the quality of the rookies since there has been a dearth of "stud" WRs recently (though I still like Davis vis a vis rookies in 2016, 2017 and 2018). I will say that WRs hold their value after the first year, but the decline D+2 is real and can be spectacular.

So come draft time, each owner has to balance instant gratification of drafting a RB or the buy/hold other positions. Have to somehow keep the pipeline full in dynasty

 
DexterDew said:
thanks for sharing this and your thoughts.

I'm starting to wonder about the gestation period of rookie WRs. We went from Year 3 breakout to getting some studs that produced in Year 1 and 2, and now owners are accepting more time is needed (like QB and TE). Maybe it's the quality of the rookies since there has been a dearth of "stud" WRs recently (though I still like Davis vis a vis rookies in 2016, 2017 and 2018). I will say that WRs hold their value after the first year, but the decline D+2 is real and can be spectacular.

So come draft time, each owner has to balance instant gratification of drafting a RB or the buy/hold other positions. Have to somehow keep the pipeline full in dynasty
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2014 was an anomaly and really threw people for a loop.  But really it's consistently taken WR a full year minimum to be productive.  I have always had a "no rookie WR" rule in redraft leagues and while it's not that drastic for dynasty for me, I am much more likely to invest at RB or for larger leagues QB's, and since all my leagues are IDP I just focus on the stud LB's once the late 1st comes around and the RB bargains are drying up.

 
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mystery RB #1 + the next Kamara - Barkley, Guice, Penny, Kerryon Johnson, Jones, Michel, Freeman, Chubb, Ballage, Wadley = _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _   (combined first and last name)

 
cockroach said:
Ito is the mystery back
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Decent guess. I recall him standing out to me when I was watching some other player on his team and also in discussions about Jalen Richard he came up for me as I thought Smith was better than Richard who is a decent RB.

 
Thanks for your thoughts Hank. I like your definition of the tiers, makes sense.

I disagree with your strategy of avoiding WR and opting for RB instead although I recognize it is viable and every league is different. If your IDP is tackle heavy LB score about as consistently as WR do so I can understand going that direction instead. As long as you can trade for startable WR I guess this strategy works fine though.

 
Biabreakable said:
Thanks for your thoughts Hank. I like your definition of the tiers, makes sense.

I disagree with your strategy of avoiding WR and opting for RB instead although I recognize it is viable and every league is different. If your IDP is tackle heavy LB score about as consistently as WR do so I can understand going that direction instead. As long as you can trade for startable WR I guess this strategy works fine though.
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I’m not in IDP but I have the same(ish) strategy as Hank. I maybe go even more extreme though. With RBs usually you don’t have to wait long so even if I’m only hitting on 2 out of 5 (4 round rookie draft and a waiver claim) you still have 2 contributors per year. So if we go with the old “3rd year breakout” of WR, At the year 3 mark I have 6 RBs to the 2 WRs and now there’s trade options on top of more line up production. The other thing is that RBs aren’t as reliant on things outside of their control. A bad QB or OC hurts a WR more than an RB. Obviously, everything thing is a factor but it’s just not typically as much as of a factor. 

The career life span of a WR is usually long than a RB but if it takes 7 years (RB aging from 22 as a rookie to 29) for to come into affect than that’s 14 RB hits and most likely trades for the other positions. 

That’s my logic anyways. Probably swayed by the fact that I find it so much more difficult to evaluate WRs.

 
Borden said:
I’m not in IDP but I have the same(ish) strategy as Hank. I maybe go even more extreme though. With RBs usually you don’t have to wait long so even if I’m only hitting on 2 out of 5 (4 round rookie draft and a waiver claim) you still have 2 contributors per year. So if we go with the old “3rd year breakout” of WR, At the year 3 mark I have 6 RBs to the 2 WRs and now there’s trade options on top of more line up production. The other thing is that RBs aren’t as reliant on things outside of their control. A bad QB or OC hurts a WR more than an RB. Obviously, everything thing is a factor but it’s just not typically as much as of a factor. 

The career life span of a WR is usually long than a RB but if it takes 7 years (RB aging from 22 as a rookie to 29) for to come into affect than that’s 14 RB hits and most likely trades for the other positions. 

That’s my logic anyways. Probably swayed by the fact that I find it so much more difficult to evaluate WRs.
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It is actually a more common strategy I think than something else.

I think this depends on your starting requirements and the other owners in the league. If everyone is valuing RB over WR then I think you have to adjust for that. If it is easier to trade for WR because of the majority of owners in your league sharing this view then I would adjust to that.

If you are playing 2 RB 3 WR and a flex though I think the majority of the flex starts should be WR though and that sets baselines at RB 30 and WR 42 which using those baselines will have the WR stacking up as more valuable than you and Hank or Drugrunners view about it. Minimal WR theory or stud RB theory.

If the league is PPR with 2 RB 3 WR and a flex this pushes the WR value higher, then the long term value of a WR compared to a RB comes into play as well.

I recognize that my perspective may not be the common of popular view anymore, I think for a couple years there with WR performing so well relative to RB that people had come around to my point of view more, but now with 2 years of WR being in decline, that perspective has shifted back towards the RB.

I don't think I am better at evaluating WR than anyone else and I acknowledge that it is easier to trade a RB when they are hot than it is with a WR who owners may want to see more than a game or two of being good before they will pay much for a WR.

For roster construction I would still preffer to have WR depth than RB depth in the long run. So I often find myself converting short term assets (RB) for long term ones (WR).

 
He's probably not the secret RB but what do you think of Chase Edmunds? I think I like what I've seen, reminds me somewhat of Matt Forte, but his level of competition wasn't great.

 
BINGBING said:
Four future starter TE's?  Nope.  The Kerryon Johnson ranking..wow no. 
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Care to expand on that? I don't know enough about him, and his rankings seem to be all over the place. What don't you like?

The write up from this article seems to support the OPs stance:

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2018/02/14/pfw-nfl-draft-newsletter-sample-mosher-charts-the-top-rbs/a6fjmrs/#//

"The raw numbers are impressive on their own, but the advanced data supports just how dominant Johnson was. When he faced even boxes, he averaged a stunning 5.93 yards per carry on 121 runs. Even when there was one more defender in the box than blockers, Johnson still averaged 4.75 yards per carry, which led the class in 2017. Against seven-man fronts, Johnson was unstoppable, averaging more than five yards per carry on 87 rushes regardless of how many blockers were on the field. Even against eight-man fronts, Johnson averaged 4.63 yards per carry on 38 attempts. If a defense was ever foolish enough to have fewer than seven defenders in the box, Johnson made them pay by averaging  6.1 yards per carry."  

 
kneeshooter said:
Care to expand on that? I don't know enough about him, and his rankings seem to be all over the place. What don't you like?

The write up from this article seems to support the OPs stance:

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2018/02/14/pfw-nfl-draft-newsletter-sample-mosher-charts-the-top-rbs/a6fjmrs/#//

"The raw numbers are impressive on their own, but the advanced data supports just how dominant Johnson was. When he faced even boxes, he averaged a stunning 5.93 yards per carry on 121 runs. Even when there was one more defender in the box than blockers, Johnson still averaged 4.75 yards per carry, which led the class in 2017. Against seven-man fronts, Johnson was unstoppable, averaging more than five yards per carry on 87 rushes regardless of how many blockers were on the field. Even against eight-man fronts, Johnson averaged 4.63 yards per carry on 38 attempts. If a defense was ever foolish enough to have fewer than seven defenders in the box, Johnson made them pay by averaging  6.1 yards per carry."  
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I'm not disputing that Kerryon will be good but man does that article read like an author who doesn't understand the difference in YPC in college vs. the NFL.  While 5.93ypc may be "stunning" in NFL terms it is in no way so in college football.  Melvin Gordon, for instance, averaged 7.79ypc for his career in college and that's even WITHOUT taking his runs against stacked fronts out.

The 4.75ypc career number doesn't even break the top 1000 all time in college YPC and is more than a full yard less than the Shonn Greene's and Mikel Leshoure's of the world.  Damien Harris averaged 7.4ypc this year.  Nick Chubb 6.0.  Sony Michel 7.9.  Bryce Love 8.1!

Kerryon may well be good, but if someone is looking to pimp him then YPC, even limited to certain scenarios, is the last place you want to go to.

 
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Biabreakable said:
Thanks for your thoughts Hank. I like your definition of the tiers, makes sense.

I disagree with your strategy of avoiding WR and opting for RB instead although I recognize it is viable and every league is different. If your IDP is tackle heavy LB score about as consistently as WR do so I can understand going that direction instead. As long as you can trade for startable WR I guess this strategy works fine though.
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This is purely a rookie strategy, I'm working on team equity at this point, not lineups, but yeah, that's the way to look at it..  This is purely economics - I can draft Corey Davis at 3, or I can draft Dalvin Cook at 3 and trade him for Corey Davis and a future pick or a few FAAB or a veteran backup QB or some other form of equity.   Very few WR are going to hit hard enough that they'd resist Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara this year - I think you'd even have gotten OBJ his rookie year for one of these guys.  Certainly would have before week 13.

Starters are born out of this same strategy though - if I'm in need of a starter at WR and I have Corey Davis to wave at those guys rebuilding, I'm not going to get AJ Green out of that.  But if I have Dalvin Cook or Mixon that's going to get me a lot closer to my goal.

 
menobrown said:
Oddly enough one of the few things I agreed with.
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I would consider future starter to mean somewhere between TE #1-18 for several years, with an average of TE #12 at worst for several years.  To think four of those guys are in this class when they have to compete with last years class makes that happen is next to impossible.

 
Hankmoody said:
This is purely a rookie strategy, I'm working on team equity at this point, not lineups, but yeah, that's the way to look at it..  This is purely economics - I can draft Corey Davis at 3, or I can draft Dalvin Cook at 3 and trade him for Corey Davis and a future pick or a few FAAB or a veteran backup QB or some other form of equity.   Very few WR are going to hit hard enough that they'd resist Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara this year - I think you'd even have gotten OBJ his rookie year for one of these guys.  Certainly would have before week 13.

Starters are born out of this same strategy though - if I'm in need of a starter at WR and I have Corey Davis to wave at those guys rebuilding, I'm not going to get AJ Green out of that.  But if I have Dalvin Cook or Mixon that's going to get me a lot closer to my goal.
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While I disagree with your rankings, your logic here is what likely makes you a great dynasty player.  It's all about assets

 
kneeshooter said:
Care to expand on that? I don't know enough about him, and his rankings seem to be all over the place. What don't you like?

The write up from this article seems to support the OPs stance:

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2018/02/14/pfw-nfl-draft-newsletter-sample-mosher-charts-the-top-rbs/a6fjmrs/#//

"The raw numbers are impressive on their own, but the advanced data supports just how dominant Johnson was. When he faced even boxes, he averaged a stunning 5.93 yards per carry on 121 runs. Even when there was one more defender in the box than blockers, Johnson still averaged 4.75 yards per carry, which led the class in 2017. Against seven-man fronts, Johnson was unstoppable, averaging more than five yards per carry on 87 rushes regardless of how many blockers were on the field. Even against eight-man fronts, Johnson averaged 4.63 yards per carry on 38 attempts. If a defense was ever foolish enough to have fewer than seven defenders in the box, Johnson made them pay by averaging  6.1 yards per carry."  
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He would have to fall into just the right team to have more value than R Jones, Michel, Chubb, and mystery RB that IMO is IMO Kelly.

 
BINGBING said:
I would consider future starter to mean somewhere between TE #1-18 for several years, with an average of TE #12 at worst for several years.  To think four of those guys are in this class when they have to compete with last years class makes that happen is next to impossible.
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I was actually talking about the Kerryon Johnson ranking but while on the subject of the TE's I sure don't see how it's impossible  that 4 players can be top 18 TE's.  TE is not that deep and a lot of them are not that young.

 
BINGBING said:
I would consider future starter to mean somewhere between TE #1-18 for several years, with an average of TE #12 at worst for several years.  To think four of those guys are in this class when they have to compete with last years class makes that happen is next to impossible.
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BINGBING said:
He would have to fall into just the right team to have more value than R Jones, Michel, Chubb, and mystery RB that IMO is IMO Kelly.
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You have miscontrued my original post.  I was very clear these are talent/potential rankings.  This is not a draft list and it's not a long-term value ranking.  Those can't be done yet.  Yes, I think 4 TE's have the talent to put up top 12 numbers for multiple years.  I know full well they all won't - some will get hurt, some will be drafted to bad teams/fits, some might even get vetted out by the pre-draft process.  My goal at that time will be to ferret out who does what.  But from what I have seen of these guys, this is the talent they have.

 
Hankmoody said:
This is purely a rookie strategy, I'm working on team equity at this point, not lineups, but yeah, that's the way to look at it..  This is purely economics - I can draft Corey Davis at 3, or I can draft Dalvin Cook at 3 and trade him for Corey Davis and a future pick or a few FAAB or a veteran backup QB or some other form of equity.   Very few WR are going to hit hard enough that they'd resist Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara this year - I think you'd even have gotten OBJ his rookie year for one of these guys.  Certainly would have before week 13.

Starters are born out of this same strategy though - if I'm in need of a starter at WR and I have Corey Davis to wave at those guys rebuilding, I'm not going to get AJ Green out of that.  But if I have Dalvin Cook or Mixon that's going to get me a lot closer to my goal.
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I recognize that. However just thinking this through if you are always drafting RB in the rookie draft, you do need to acquire WR some other way (since you are not drafting them) and because drafting the WR as rookies may be your lowest price point on them, over time you are going to need to pay more for those WR you will need for your team to be a contender.

RB careers do not last very long which is why dynasty owners will need to be constantly chasing them, every year because the turnover rate is so high. So only logical that if you stick with this strategy of only drafting RB in rookie drafts that you will need to acquire WR and other positions in some other way than the draft.

 
John Kelly or Nyheim Hines is my guess.  

"Tier 1 - future FF starter POS1.  May not be elite but he's gonna be a guy you start every week.  Maybe he ran a 4.58 or only caught 12 passes in college.  Melvin Gordon.
Tier 2 - POS1/POS2 type.  Maybe a limited ceiling due to skillset .  Probably going to flash immediately and might be a strong flip candidate.  Jordan Howard type."

You can basically flip your tier1 and tier2 RB's in my opinion.  All of your tier2 RB's (other than Freeman) have better ceilings than tier1 to me and it's really not even close.  

Another guy that stood out to me was Dante Pettis, I watched 2 games of his, and instantly put him on my DND (do not draft) list.  I finished watching 4 more games but still, he left a bad taste in my mouth.  Can you explain what you saw from him?  

 
Biabreakable said:
I recognize that. However just thinking this through if you are always drafting RB in the rookie draft, you do need to acquire WR some other way (since you are not drafting them) and because drafting the WR as rookies may be your lowest price point on them, over time you are going to need to pay more for those WR you will need for your team to be a contender.

RB careers do not last very long which is why dynasty owners will need to be constantly chasing them, every year because the turnover rate is so high. So only logical that if you stick with this strategy of only drafting RB in rookie drafts that you will need to acquire WR and other positions in some other way than the draft.
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I was concurring with you, hope it didn't come off confrontational or corrective.

I'm fine with paying more for WR because I know what I'm getting.  Rookie RB's appreciate so much faster and so much more reliably than WR I end up playing with house money anyway.  And your point about chasing RB is kind of what drives this, because while everyone else is out there drafting WR and watering them and giving them good sunlight to grow big and strong, I've got RB's that are ready to go.  They can't come offer me their Corey Davis for my Kareem Hunt so they have to sweeten the pot.  When Chris Carson gets his shot I'm getting offers of Golden Tate and Michael Crabtree - I couldn't pull those guys using Cooper Kupp after week 3.

 
Hankmoody said:
I was concurring with you, hope it didn't come off confrontational or corrective.

I'm fine with paying more for WR because I know what I'm getting.  Rookie RB's appreciate so much faster and so much more reliably than WR I end up playing with house money anyway.  And your point about chasing RB is kind of what drives this, because while everyone else is out there drafting WR and watering them and giving them good sunlight to grow big and strong, I've got RB's that are ready to go.  They can't come offer me their Corey Davis for my Kareem Hunt so they have to sweeten the pot.  When Chris Carson gets his shot I'm getting offers of Golden Tate and Michael Crabtree - I couldn't pull those guys using Cooper Kupp after week 3.
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I also agree with what you saying as far as being able to trade the RB earlier than the WR.

Just playing devils advocate here. Some of what you are talking about may be specific to your league and not always the case. I kind of doubt people would be willing to trade Golden Tate for Chris Carson for example, but maybe in your league you can do that.

I would say it depends on the talent of the draft too. If you drafted RB over WR in 2014 for example, you likely would regret doing that. If you do in 2018 it is likely the best thing to do because the WR are not that good this year.

 
Zyphros said:
John Kelly or Nyheim Hines is my guess.  

"Tier 1 - future FF starter POS1.  May not be elite but he's gonna be a guy you start every week.  Maybe he ran a 4.58 or only caught 12 passes in college.  Melvin Gordon.
Tier 2 - POS1/POS2 type.  Maybe a limited ceiling due to skillset .  Probably going to flash immediately and might be a strong flip candidate.  Jordan Howard type."

You can basically flip your tier1 and tier2 RB's in my opinion.  All of your tier2 RB's (other than Freeman) have better ceilings than tier1 to me and it's really not even close.  

Another guy that stood out to me was Dante Pettis, I watched 2 games of his, and instantly put him on my DND (do not draft) list.  I finished watching 4 more games but still, he left a bad taste in my mouth.  Can you explain what you saw from him?  
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Return yards, he's a great PR and some of my leagues award for those.

I like how he catches the ball - probably born of his PR work, but he's always using his hands pulling it to his body.  A lot of guys let it hit their body or arms/biceps and try to trap it and that causes a lot of drops.  He's always using his hands and then bringing it in.  I think that translates really well to making contested catches and also catches in weather.

He's got this move that his upper body leans or turns like it's going to go somewhere but his hips stay directly on target, and he fools a whole lot of tacklers with that.  Ends up not breaking stride but the defender totally breaks down with it and can't recover.

He looks like he runs a lot of routes well and he gets in and out of breaks well.

 
-OZ- said:
He's probably not the secret RB but what do you think of Chase Edmunds? I think I like what I've seen, reminds me somewhat of Matt Forte, but his level of competition wasn't great.
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Sorry just noticing I missed this.  I've never seen him play and I tend to stay away from those kinds of guys when doing rankings.  I'll rely a lot more on analysts and combine numbers and actual NFL draft results for players like this.  I'm unlikely to rank more than 10-15 deep at RB and WR and probably not much past 6-7 at other positions.

 
Ballage over Mark Walton? I can't support that. Ballage is a total hypothetical, a physical specimen but his track record is questionable at best. Walton missed most this last year and he might never be a 3 down workhorse but he is electric with the ball in his hands.

 
BINGBING said:
WR list needs DJ Moore and Gallup in there.
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Haven't seen enough from them to know.  That's a little surprising and/or a bad sign for Moore since I'm a raging Buckeye fan and watch every game so if he didn't stand out to me as someone to watch I'm probably not going to end up all that high on him.

 
Hankmoody said:
RB
Tier 0 - Barkley, Guice
Tier 1 - Penny, Kerryon Johnson, mystery RB #1
Tier 2 - Jones, Michel, Freeman, Chubb
Tier 3 - Ballage, Wadley

I am keeping a secret on my last Tier 1 guy because I haven't heard a peep about him yet and I don't want to crack that egg.  I know my league members are on these forums and I am not going to be the one that gets them thinking "hmm, that guy eh?  Maybe I'll check him out more...".   They may discover him, but it won't be from me - good thing I don't have paying customers I'm stealing from.  Suffice to say I'll be grabbing him in all of my drafts mid/late.  That's the next Kamara IMO.
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Update?

 
Hankmoody said:
Still a bit early for mine.  I do a lot during/after combine but here's a preliminary list by position.  I do two rankings - first is my Player Ranking, which is purely a talent play.  A guy like Penny, for example, is getting a lot of flack about whether or not he translates to the NFL's passing game.  I will make that determination later, but right now I am in love with his physical talent.  "If" he can't catch or block, and "if" if goes to a bad situation, and "if" he gets into an RBBC - that's all for later.  Right now I'm assuming they end up with a coaching staff that will get 100% of their talent out of them, that's how these lists are built.  I also emphasize ceiling over floor.  I have no interest in a safe 11 PPG guy - those guys are readily available via trade any year.  I want to end up with Duke Johnson (RB17 in PPR!) and not Isiah Crowell in 3 years. 

After the NFL draft I'll create my Draft List.  That's a very different list which takes the situation into account and interleaves the positions.  It will also be tweaked by league - size (more emphasis on QB), scoring, and opponent behavior. 

Tier 0 - no brainer, just draft and forget.  Future FF stud.  Situation is irrelevant aside from the fact it may take a year or two to fix - see Gurley, Todd.
Tier 1 - future FF starter POS1.  May not be elite but he's gonna be a guy you start every week.  Maybe he ran a 4.58 or only caught 12 passes in college.  Melvin Gordon.
Tier 2 - POS1/POS2 type.  Maybe a limited ceiling due to skillset .  Probably going to flash immediately and might be a strong flip candidate.  Jordan Howard type.
Tier 3 - upside shots.  FF wildcard and lots of roster killer types here.  Guys you just can't bring yourself to resist because "what if" but realistically not a big chance they make it big.  You can't carry many of these guys but you gotta draft a couple every year and see who hits.  Yeti Carson.

RB
Tier 0 - Barkley, Guice
Tier 1 - Penny, Kerryon Johnson, mystery RB #1
Tier 2 - Jones, Michel, Freeman, Chubb
Tier 3 - Ballage, Wadley - Wadley not even getting drafted in fantasy leagues

I am keeping a secret on my last Tier 1 guy because I haven't heard a peep about him yet and I don't want to crack that egg.  I know my league members are on these forums and I am not going to be the one that gets them thinking "hmm, that guy eh?  Maybe I'll check him out more...".   They may discover him, but it won't be from me - good thing I don't have paying customers I'm stealing from.  Suffice to say I'll be grabbing him in all of my drafts mid/late.  That's the next Kamara IMO.

WR
disclaimer - I no longer draft WR early.  They take too long to develop and reach value and they are too easy to poach after week 8 for a hot ticket item.  I love drafting Chris Carson and trading him for Mike Williams in week 5.  Love it.  I'll take shots at later guys and if they miss I'll just find the other believer in my league and let him carry him on taxi for 2 more years while I grab Robby Anderson (or Chester Rodgers /sigh) off waivers.
Tier 0 - N/A
Tier 1 - Ridley, Anthony Miller, Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk - St. Brown is a dud, even 3rd drafted WR from his team.  Love Miller however
Tier 2 - Sutton, Washington, Deon Cain, DaeSean Hamilton, Auden Tate, Simmie Cobbs - Like Washington in tier 2, but Cain, Hamilton Tate and Cobbs, bad
Tier 3 - Alan Lazzard, Richie James, Daurice Fountain, Marcel Ateman, Trey Quinn - who?  I like Fountain as a flier, but that's about it

Still some names left to slot, Keke Coutre is really interesting - I saw him play and whoa.  Washington is growing on me and I will probably bump him up.  I love guys with long arms that know how to use them.  So many body-catches nowadays.  There are a ton ton ton of upside guys in this draft.  FF round 2 is going to create some league powerhouses over the next couple of years.  In my IDP league I am trying desperately to move some guys for late 2/early 3rd and create room on my taxi squads.

TE
Tier 0 - N/A
Tier 1 - Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst - I like Goedert the best from this group
Tier 2 - Troy Fumagali - I would put Ian Thomas here instead of Fumagali
Tier 3 -  Ian Thomas, Alan Breneman

Another deep positional draft, and there are a few left for me to look into.  Marcus Baugh is super intriguing.  Big-time recruit but a terrible TE system for him at OSU. 

QB
disclaimer - Situation and coaching for me affects my Draft List a LOT more than any other position. 
Tier 0 - N/A
Tier 1 - Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen,
Tier 2 - Sam Brad I mean Darnold
Tier 3 - Lamar Jackson, Kyle Allen, Kenny Hill - Lamar Jackson will be the best QB for fantasy purposes  I like Rosen somewhat.

Remember, my list is based on assuming the team is going to maximize the QB's talents.    Josh Allen has tools you can't find in most guys and if Mayfield is enabled to do the things on the NFL field he could in college we're going to have a fantasy bonanza on our hands.   I don't actually believe Lamar Jackson, Allen, and Hill are equally likely to find success, but if Allen or Hill do, they are the most likely candidates to be the Dak Prescott of this draft.

I'll do IDP in the IDP forum, that place needs all the traffic it can get.
Click to expand...

 
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Hopefully you noticed those are pre-combine, let alone NFL draft, rankings.  Obviously a lot changed once we got a lot more info.  I especially listen to the NFL guys that do this for a living.  If, for example, Wadley was a 4th round pick and ESB a 2nd you'd be seeing very different live results. 

As I expected, round 2 looks like a bonanza in my leagues.  I grabbed a few extras and really love the results.  One thing I didn't account for is the bonehead picks that happen push better players into the 3rd round than should be there, so I need to start grabbing those too.  I always seem to say that to myself but never seem to be able to retain it.  Next year!

Mister CIA said:
Hankmoody said:
RB
Tier 0 - Barkley, Guice
Tier 1 - Penny, Kerryon Johnson, mystery RB #1
Tier 2 - Jones, Michel, Freeman, Chubb
Tier 3 - Ballage, Wadley

I am keeping a secret on my last Tier 1 guy because I haven't heard a peep about him yet and I don't want to crack that egg.  I know my league members are on these forums and I am not going to be the one that gets them thinking "hmm, that guy eh?  Maybe I'll check him out more...".   They may discover him, but it won't be from me - good thing I don't have paying customers I'm stealing from.  Suffice to say I'll be grabbing him in all of my drafts mid/late.  That's the next Kamara IMO.
Click to expand...
Update?
Click to expand...
It was Jaylen Samuels.  After the combine and draft he's a little more JAG-y as a runner than I first thought but he's got PPR monster written all over him, and I just can't help but remember how absolutely ordinary Alfred Morris looked and wished he could catch - he'd be Jayln Samuels.  The NFL draft spot is kind of a mixed blessing because it keeps his price down, if he's a 3rd rounder all of a sudden a bunch of ears perk up and you get the Hunt comparisons, but it's also a bit of a bummer because it means NFL evaluators have their doubts.  But hey, they missed on other guys and sometimes these kids just keep improving after college - Arian Foster, Terrell Davis, Morris - there's production to be had in later rounds.  And maybe, just maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt it.  I'm grabbing him in my PPR leagues so far and my tiered leagues are going slower so we'll see where I can get him.

People will probably not even read this and just get all bent out of shape with my Kamara comment but that was more about the surprise production than the physical skillset, I probably should have been a little more cautious with my words.  Oh well.

 
Process > results. Putting in tons of time means you're more likely to draft/manage winning fantasy teams than not. If people play fantasy football to be 100% correct then they should try another hobby. Thanks for showing your work. 

 
Appreciate your opinions.

Really like Jaylen Samuels. Somehow he fell to me at 4.03 and I'm uncommonly pleased with a pick this late.

My dark horse candidate in this draft was Roc Thomas. He's slightly undersized (5'10", 198), and a hair slow for his size (4.56), but looks so natural at the RB position. Style-wise, he's a poor man's LeSean McCoy. There's a sliver of opportunity in Minn if Dalvin Cook is not on the field.

 
I'm not sure what you're crowing about - that you got one of the WR right?  Congrats on that. Did you even read what I wrote, or are you just in here to stroke yourself over your brilliance?

You have misconstrued my original post.  I was very clear these are talent/potential rankings.  This is not a draft list and it's not a long-term value ranking.  Those can't be done yet.  Yes, I think 4 TE's have the talent to put up top 12 numbers for multiple years.  I know full well they all won't - some will get hurt, some will be drafted to bad teams/fits, some might even get vetted out by the pre-draft process.  My goal at that time will be to ferret out who does what.  But from what I have seen of these guys, this is the talent they have.

The TE's were all drafted in the first three rounds FYI, and Kerryon Johnson was a 2nd rounder, so I feel pretty validated despite your strutting around.  I did end up with Moore moved way up on my rankings but I never really got into Gallup and he was the 9th WR drafted.  I got neither in any drafts although that's not surprising given my strategy of preferring RB heavily over WR.  This was a pre-combine list by the way so there's little surprise a few things changed drastically in 3 months.  Be sure to shoot me a link with your 100% accurate pre-combine rankings so I can go congratulate you on them.

 
A. Morris appeared to have an uncanny ability to hit stride quickly (hole shot)  So while I do not agree with the words "absolutely ordinary"  Watching some YouTube of Samuels does appear to offer quite similar instant-on button acceleration on some plays as they develop  Great call Hank n' thank-you for the post's

 
Hankmoody said:
I'm not sure what you're crowing about - that you got one of the WR right?  Congrats on that. Did you even read what I wrote, or are you just in here to stroke yourself over your brilliance?

You have misconstrued my original post.  I was very clear these are talent/potential rankings.  This is not a draft list and it's not a long-term value ranking.  Those can't be done yet.  Yes, I think 4 TE's have the talent to put up top 12 numbers for multiple years.  I know full well they all won't - some will get hurt, some will be drafted to bad teams/fits, some might even get vetted out by the pre-draft process.  My goal at that time will be to ferret out who does what.  But from what I have seen of these guys, this is the talent they have.

The TE's were all drafted in the first three rounds FYI, and Kerryon Johnson was a 2nd rounder, so I feel pretty validated despite your strutting around.  I did end up with Moore moved way up on my rankings but I never really got into Gallup and he was the 9th WR drafted.  I got neither in any drafts although that's not surprising given my strategy of preferring RB heavily over WR.  This was a pre-combine list by the way so there's little surprise a few things changed drastically in 3 months.  Be sure to shoot me a link with your 100% accurate pre-combine rankings so I can go congratulate you on them.
Click to expand...
1. "one of the WR right....he was the overall #1 WR taken in the draft and you didn't even have him on your board.  It was constructive criticism and it was correct.

2.  "You have misconstrued my original post.  I was very clear these are talent/potential rankings.  This is not a draft list and it's not a long-term value ranking"....and then your rebuttal is to point out the draft position of certain players...DJ Moore was the #1 WR drafted...you write that off...The players you touted went within the first few rounds of the draft and will succeed...use that as evidence to prove you were right on those players.   Extreme double standard.  That being said, DJ Moore's landing spot was not idea.  Once Olsen retires he will get a good amount of targets...until then it is too crowded.

3.  To both support and argue against you in the same breath...I still agree with Guice as the #2 RB as you had him ranked, yet you support your Kerryon Johnson ranking because of his draft position.  Opportunity is king and Kerryon landed in a good spot, but the fact that he was drafted before Guice does not mean he is a better FANTASY prospect. 

4.  Michael Gallup...like I said...you missed on him in your rankings.

5. "my strategy of preferring RB heavily over WR."   EFF YESSSSS this is how you do it unless it is a slot WR that will produce immediate results ala Cooper Kupp late in the draft...and then sell that man without people realizing he's older than some veteran NFL WR's and that was near his ceiling.  RB's produce right away or they suck and you dump them.  Don't waste the space on the countless WR's that don't pan out...all that arguing over WR's and I prolly won't draft any of them because there is a 3-4 ppg difference between the bottom WR1's and the WR 3-4's.

6.  Don't be so sensitive.  You clearly learned from the process and that is the point of doing this.  I think I accurately called out some glaring omissions from your rankings.  We grew as a community.  We learned as a society.  I just think you were overly aggressive on some guys and especially the TE's....and i'm a guy desperate for TE's because my strategy in two start-ups last year was to just punt on that position completely.

 
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Hankmoody said:
Mister CIA said:
Hankmoody said:
RB
Tier 0 - Barkley, Guice
Tier 1 - Penny, Kerryon Johnson, mystery RB #1
Tier 2 - Jones, Michel, Freeman, Chubb
Tier 3 - Ballage, Wadley

I am keeping a secret on my last Tier 1 guy because I haven't heard a peep about him yet and I don't want to crack that egg.  I know my league members are on these forums and I am not going to be the one that gets them thinking "hmm, that guy eh?  Maybe I'll check him out more...".   They may discover him, but it won't be from me - good thing I don't have paying customers I'm stealing from.  Suffice to say I'll be grabbing him in all of my drafts mid/late.  That's the next Kamara IMO.
Click to expand...
Update?
Click to expand...
It was Jaylen Samuels.  After the combine and draft he's a little more JAG-y as a runner than I first thought but he's got PPR monster written all over him, and I just can't help but remember how absolutely ordinary Alfred Morris looked and wished he could catch - he'd be Jayln Samuels.  The NFL draft spot is kind of a mixed blessing because it keeps his price down, if he's a 3rd rounder all of a sudden a bunch of ears perk up and you get the Hunt comparisons, but it's also a bit of a bummer because it means NFL evaluators have their doubts.  But hey, they missed on other guys and sometimes these kids just keep improving after college - Arian Foster, Terrell Davis, Morris - there's production to be had in later rounds.  And maybe, just maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt it.  I'm grabbing him in my PPR leagues so far and my tiered leagues are going slower so we'll see where I can get him.

People will probably not even read this and just get all bent out of shape with my Kamara comment but that was more about the surprise production than the physical skillset, I probably should have been a little more cautious with my words.  Oh well.
Click to expand...
Mission accomplished.  Got him in 4/5 leagues and the.one I didn't I didn't have a realistic shot at him - I went from 2.11 to 6.05 in a 16 man league.  He went  4.13 which is 61 overall so I probably should have traded a future pick to make a move.

I'm very glad I got him and this is over because there's a lot of attention on him now.   He's got a dedicated thread here plus other mentions, I'm reading about him on other boards, and EBF called him out specifically as well.

 
I haven't watched Jalen Samuels at all yet but your teasing/subterfuge regarding him has piqued my interest.

Just reading this article that Faust poster recently sounds like you are not alone in trying to land him in every league.

Jaylen Samuels (RB – PIT)
Of everyone on this list, Samuels is without question my favorite value. I will be getting ALL the shares of him this season. Maybe I will even join extra leagues just to make sure I can draft Samuels a few more times. Le’Veon Bell is an unrestricted free agent next year and might just walk away from Pittsburgh if they don’t pay him up. That would leave Samuels as the most likely player to take over in what may be the best situation for a running back in the NFL. Even if not, let’s just say he is Bell’s handcuff, Bell has missed more than a fair amount of time over the years, and when he has, DeAngelo Williams was 95% as effective as Le’Veon in that time. Samuels may not be as talented as Williams, but the situation cannot be understated.
Click to expand...

 
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