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2023 New York Jets: Bye Bye (7 Viewers)

If colleges don't play at least a fair number of games, the players will be slower to develop, but will still be the same players physically and talent-wise once they get pro coaching and pro action under their belt - in some cases less to unlearn. So the value of the draft class will be about the same, but it will he harder to spot who will be the achievers and who won't.That means a harder task to be right on picks, but also a higher chance of getting a better player than you expected. It probably hurts good drafters some and helps the odds for poorer drafters.There still will be tape on most guys and the combine. Teams never can know everything and now will know a bit less. The value of good scouting will rise.

 
Definitely, I just didn’t see it acknowledged in the  conclusion that the Jets ripped off Seattle. Teams are valuing those picks differently, which in typical markets allows arbitrage opportunity.

Financial commitments to first rounders vs later are substantial and if variance is much higher in player outcome the value equations change. It’s kind of how Belicheck has always approached the draft historically. He’d rather more shots at hitting than a potential big swing and miss
I totally agree with your first point that it should be factored in. I had the same thought because the same thing is going on in fantasy dynasty rookie drafts for 2021 right now. How does one value future picks given the informational uncertainty sure to come?

That said, I think you used a poor example. Bill Belichick has actually arguably performed incredibly poorly in the draft for the very reason you give. He trades down and out of really good players. First example that comes to mind is passing on Heisman Ingram to draft Vereen and Ridley back-to-back in the second. Sometimes cents on the dollar are just that.

 
I totally agree with your first point that it should be factored in. I had the same thought because the same thing is going on in fantasy dynasty rookie drafts for 2021 right now. How does one value future picks given the informational uncertainty sure to come?

That said, I think you used a poor example. Bill Belichick has actually arguably performed incredibly poorly in the draft for the very reason you give. He trades down and out of really good players. First example that comes to mind is passing on Heisman Ingram to draft Vereen and Ridley back-to-back in the second. Sometimes cents on the dollar are just that.
At least it’s an ethos dude

...agreed on NE bad drafts. Vereen would have been pretty good if he could have stayed healthy. No matter what position you are you have to pick the right guys 

 
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Pats Hightower and starting RT opting out this yr....maybe Belichick sees the writing on the wall and is tanking for Trevor!  

crazy as it seems - even losing Adams - it is not impossible for the Jets to take this division.....

edit: add Chung to the list

 
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I think its all irrelevant, as I dont think we're going to have a season.

But kudos to Bill for coming up with this next level strategy to get Lawrence. I hate the guy, but you gotta admire the outside the box thinking.

 
Bill isn’t getting Lawrence, the basement floor is 6 wins. OL holes and starting MLB out have been a yearly routine since the Jerod Mayo era

 
Bill isn’t getting Lawrence, the basement floor is 6 wins. OL holes and starting MLB out have been a yearly routine since the Jerod Mayo era
We'll see how he adjusts the offense to fit Cam (Assuming Cam is even healthy).

As a long suffering Jet fan, I'm always worried that Bill's playing 3d chess while the rest of the teams play candyland.

 
I have it on good authority that the Jets are about to sign Jadeveon Clowney.  Apparently, Bradley McDougald wants Clowney on the team, and from what I hear, Clowney himself wants to sign with the Jets.  Does anyone think Jadeveon Clowney would make the Jets any better than they are right now?

 
At this point, I think Clowney wants to sign with whoever will give him $15+ Million. I still dont think Douglas is the one that's going to do that.

I'd still be very surprised if this happened. Even with Clowney playing at his best (which is a good player, but not the game changer we thought he'd be coming out) the Jets aren't a contender. And I think they know this.

Obviously the expectations for this year is that they'll be in the playoff mix. Even without Adams, (and Anderson gone) they should be better considering what they've added/gotten back from injury.  

To me, this is a "be in the hunt" kinda year where the only thing that REALLY matters is whether Sam looks like the guy. If he takes a step and they win like 9-10 games this year, (unlikely, IMO due to Gase and the schedule)  next year is the year you try to load up and go for it.   And if you're gonna do that, you're better off just rolling over the open cap space to next season.

And honestly....I kinda dont think we're having a season anyway.

 
At this point, I think Clowney wants to sign with whoever will give him $15+ Million. I still dont think Douglas is the one that's going to do that.

I'd still be very surprised if this happened. Even with Clowney playing at his best (which is a good player, but not the game changer we thought he'd be coming out) the Jets aren't a contender. And I think they know this.

Obviously the expectations for this year is that they'll be in the playoff mix. Even without Adams, (and Anderson gone) they should be better considering what they've added/gotten back from injury.  

To me, this is a "be in the hunt" kinda year where the only thing that REALLY matters is whether Sam looks like the guy. If he takes a step and they win like 9-10 games this year, (unlikely, IMO due to Gase and the schedule)  next year is the year you try to load up and go for it.   And if you're gonna do that, you're better off just rolling over the open cap space to next season.

And honestly....I kinda dont think we're having a season anyway.
Id be shocked if they signed Clowney - with the cloudiness of even having a season along with the big cut in cap next season by around $50M- I think JD rolls the cap room into next year.  They are already $57M under and adding an extra $20M to that gets them to $77M....if they cut Bell, Anderson and Quincy they would be close to $100M under when most teams will be slashing and cutting players to get under....they would be able to grab a ton of solid players on the cheap....agree with above...develop OL and Sam - be in the playoff chase until Dec - then load up for the next 5 yrs in the offseason.  This is not the yr to add a Clowney to go for it...

 
Good - just like Wilkerson and Richardson before him - the one decent top 10ish pick we make every 5 years, at the least relevant of positions, ALSO can't carry on his career as a Jet past his first contract.  We sure know how to pick em, even when we figure out how to pick em. 

The good news is all this BS continues to affirm my faith in Joe Douglas.

 
COVID opt out....i guess that tolls his awful contract another yr and gives Gase another huge excuse.....

Guy missed 1 game in 5 seasons in Balt....signs with Jets and plays 1 game in 2 seasons.....unreal

 
Obvious move given the cap hit, his decline and the other upgrades they made.

Guy was a good soldier though. Had some pretty solid years (After a rough rookie campaign) but injuries took a toll. 

I have a theory that pretty much every team should draft a lineman from the mid-west or southeast with either their 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick every single year. Even if they're never spectacular,  there's a good chance you'll land a serviceable starter who will do his job and keep his mouth shut.  Too many coachable, fundamentally sound, country strong kids from Georgia and big ol' farm boys from Ohio to spend early picks chasing a LITTLE more upside.

I developed this theory shortly after it became clear that Vlad Ducasse was a wasted pick (LOL at drafting a project GUARD from freaking UMASS in the 2nd round. Let alone one that scored a 13 on the Wondrerlic)

 
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Obvious move given the cap hit, his decline and the other upgrades they made.

Guy was a good soldier though. Had some pretty solid years (After a rough rookie campaign) but injuries took a toll. 

I have a theory that pretty much every team should draft a lineman from the mid-west or southeast with either their 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick every single year. Even if they're never spectacular,  there's a good chance you'll land a serviceable starter who will do his job and keep his mouth shut.  Too many coachable, fundamentally sound, country strong kids from Georgia and big ol' farm boys from Ohio to spend early picks chasing a LITTLE more upside.

I developed this theory shortly after it became clear that Vlad Ducasse was a wasted pick (LOL at drafting a project GUARD from freaking UMASS in the 2nd round. Let alone one that scored a 13 on the Wondrerlic)
Completely agree - 

I think they were waiting until he passed the physical to cut him - assuming the cap goes down to what they are saying many teams are going to have to cut quality players to get under.....Jets will be in a great position - hope they roll it all over rather than spending it on a big signing for a rebuild yr.  

Winters was the last of the Rex/Idzick regime and a solid IOL - I also love drafting midwest OL - very high success rate.....

 
Obvious move given the cap hit, his decline and the other upgrades they made.

Guy was a good soldier though. Had some pretty solid years (After a rough rookie campaign) but injuries took a toll. 

I have a theory that pretty much every team should draft a lineman from the mid-west or southeast with either their 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick every single year. Even if they're never spectacular,  there's a good chance you'll land a serviceable starter who will do his job and keep his mouth shut.  Too many coachable, fundamentally sound, country strong kids from Georgia and big ol' farm boys from Ohio to spend early picks chasing a LITTLE more upside.

I developed this theory shortly after it became clear that Vlad Ducasse was a wasted pick (LOL at drafting a project GUARD from freaking UMASS in the 2nd round. Let alone one that scored a 13 on the Wondrerlic)
Any strategy other than Mac’s never draft OL is fine with me. But in seriousness, I think that’s a decent strategy that you laid out - still you take a potential franchise OT when you can. 

 
Completely agree - 

I think they were waiting until he passed the physical to cut him - assuming the cap goes down to what they are saying many teams are going to have to cut quality players to get under.....Jets will be in a great position - hope they roll it all over rather than spending it on a big signing for a rebuild yr.  

Winters was the last of the Rex/Idzick regime and a solid IOL - I also love drafting midwest OL - very high success rate.....
I hope they make the playoffs this year on the back of Sam, but it all honesty, playing for 2021 while still improving this year is the smart play. 

 
Any strategy other than Mac’s never draft OL is fine with me. But in seriousness, I think that’s a decent strategy that you laid out - still you take a potential franchise OT when you can. 
Oh no question you still take a stud OT (or absolutely no brainer elite interior guy) in the first round. But I just think you should constantly be taking flyers at that spot in the middle rounds. You always need guys and I think it's pretty easy to spot guys that will be serviceable. 

But no project guys at that position. Take your early flyers on wrs and pass rushers.

 
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So yeah......Mosley apparently needs to "find his flame" during this time off.

Translation....a crappy team paid me $85 Million dollars, I played parts of 2 games and now I dont really feel like playing anymore.

Unfreaking real. Guarantee this guy will be useless when he comes back.

 
Kalen Ballage. We already have Bell, Gore, Perine.

Now a guy that can't average over two yards a carry.

Seriously. #### this team. 

 
Didn't even let him get to waivers.And right after the Gase/Bell "hamstring disagreement." 
Gase really likes who he likes, I guess. Anyone else left from his Mia days besides Gore and Ballage?

 
Kalen Ballage. We already have Bell, Gore, Perine.

Now a guy that can't average over two yards a carry.

Seriously. #### this team. 
I’m not a fan but he’ll probably be released before Week One, and maybe resigned so they don’t have to guarantee his contract or maybe not at all. 
I don’t see him as anyone they have plans for. 

 
I have the feeling that if someone else lost a running back and offered us a 3rd rounder, Gase would be in Douglas' office BEGGING him to take it.

Dude is a clown.  This year is going to suck.....because they're obviously not good enough to make a playoff run....but if they win 9 or 10 games, Gase survives another year unless Douglas just straight up can't stand him personally and convinces Johnson to oust him.

 
I have the feeling that if someone else lost a running back and offered us a 3rd rounder, Gase would be in Douglas' office BEGGING him to take it.

Dude is a clown.  This year is going to suck.....because they're obviously not good enough to make a playoff run....but if they win 9 or 10 games, Gase survives another year unless Douglas just straight up can't stand him personally and convinces Johnson to oust him.
I don't see how, with this schedule, they win nine or ten games. Not seeing it. They should have just fired Gase. He's a placeholder right now and the team is a mess.

 
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I have the feeling that if someone else lost a running back and offered us a 3rd rounder, Gase would be in Douglas' office BEGGING him to take it.
As a Bears fan, during that brief time frame yesterday, when it sounded like Montgomery suffered a potential season ending injury and not the 2-4 week injury it turned out to be, I instantly wondered how much it would cost the Bears for Bell. I was thinking a 5th if they took the entire contract.

 
As a Bears fan, during that brief time frame yesterday, when it sounded like Montgomery suffered a potential season ending injury and not the 2-4 week injury it turned out to be, I instantly wondered how much it would cost the Bears for Bell. I was thinking a 5th if they took the entire contract.
I think he'd come basically free if they took the contract.

 
As a Bears fan, during that brief time frame yesterday, when it sounded like Montgomery suffered a potential season ending injury and not the 2-4 week injury it turned out to be, I instantly wondered how much it would cost the Bears for Bell. I was thinking a 5th if they took the entire contract.
I think Gase would take it. Douglas would (hopefully) tell him to go pound sand

Even if you believe that he's never going to be even 85% as productive as he was with Pittsburgh (a reasonable assumption, although I think last year's struggles were mostly O-line related), he's the best weapon the Jets have right now.  Perriman could be a month long flash in the pan, Crowder is just a really good slot guy and Mims is hurt.  Herndon clearly has potential but after missing a whole year, who knows.

At some point.....you have to give Darnold SOMEONE with some game breaking potential. Even if Bell PROBABLY isn't that guy anymore, there's still a chance he bounces back. Trading him at this point would be awful.

Of course, that probably means Gase wants it to happen, because he's a goof who thinks he is WAY smarter than he is.

 
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Don’t like him but have to hope he succeeds or we’re blowing Darnold’s rookie deal and forcing him to learn another new offense next year.
Go root for the Bills instead. You don't have to put yourself thru this. Gase is an even less likeable George Castanza. Have you seen him without his hat on?

 
I know it was just a 7th but i cant fathom trading anything for Ballage....let alone to a div opponent....

Tough to gauge without preseason games but all the anti news on Bell is disturbing....could Gase really be this stubborn?  Im really trying to root for him to give Sam a chance but at this point if the season is  a failure and Gase is fired it would comfort me.....a bad season and Gase returns and I dont think i could take much more....

 
Our long and national nightmare is over.
Or not...  :unsure:
 

Ian Rapoport@RapSheet 21h

More intrigue for former #Dolphins RB Kalen Ballage, who was to be traded to the #Jets: Source said he failed his physical with #NYJ because of a hamstring injury. So Ballage reverts back to MIA, who likely releases him. He could end up back with the #Jets when healed.

 
People are speculating that the Jets will look at Fournette. Would even speculation happen with a competent franchise who had two mediocre backs (at this point in time) on their roster already? You know the answer to this question.

It's sad. :(

 
JD should be spending all his time on upgrading that putrid WR group.....looks as bad as the OL last yr which will not help Sam develop....

 

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