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Dr. Octopus

2020 New York Jets: Metlife turf puts up more fight than the Jets

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Not sure how to quantify it, but there is some percentage chance that an abbreviated or cancelled college football season will substantially impact the value of draft picks for 21, maybe 22 if you are seeing player who generally play 3 years lose a year of development and increased difficulty of scouting old tape
 

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9 minutes ago, Babooya said:

Not sure how to quantify it, but there is some percentage chance that an abbreviated or cancelled college football season will substantially impact the value of draft picks for 21, maybe 22 if you are seeing player who generally play 3 years lose a year of development and increased difficulty of scouting old tape
 

I've read something similar to that. Hence why it's even more critical and crucial to have a GM who knows what the F he's doing. Even in this scenario where there wouldn't be a college football season this year, I'd still trust Douglass to make the right moves and improve the team.

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i'd call myself a 40+ year jet fan.  I don't blame Adams for not wanting to be here, this is a terrible organization that loses.  Historical drafts are almost laughable.  Total decision making is non existant.  I am pessimistic about Gase, Douglas needs to show me something cause this team's history is brutal.  That said, the Jets were 16-32 with Adams being called a premier defender.  SS is simply not a premier position.  He wanted to be paid years early in a global pandemic.  Who knows what anything looks like, why pay a guy early and lock money when you are gonna have to pay Darnold too.  I think Ashtyn Davis will be a functional replacement.  McDougald can play.  To say the Seahawks picks will be low misses the fact that this league changes from week to week and we remain in a pandemic.  1 or 2 injuries and a funky schedule could make anyone 7-9.  The Jets got burnt on Wilkerson.  They were smart on L Williams.  Stop paying middling guys big money.  Not saying Adams is middling, but be wary of guys on losing teams that have stats.  I won't dispute Adams is a player, but on a different team will he be asked to blitz or cover?  Will he be in the box all the time?  I hate getting picks, cause this team can't draft, but i hate paying a malcontent.  The one thing i always know is that guys are replaceable, at every position.  I am praying Douglas has a clue and dumps Gase after this year, constructs a roster and turns this thing around.  Is Adams a winning player?  Honestly, who knows.  The return is worth the deal IMO. 

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3 hours ago, Maximus* said:

I've read something similar to that. Hence why it's even more critical and crucial to have a GM who knows what the F he's doing. Even in this scenario where there wouldn't be a college football season this year, I'd still trust Douglass to make the right moves and improve the team.

Definitely, I just didn’t see it acknowledged in the  conclusion that the Jets ripped off Seattle. Teams are valuing those picks differently, which in typical markets allows arbitrage opportunity.
 

Financial commitments to first rounders vs later are substantial and if variance is much higher in player outcome the value equations change. It’s kind of how Belicheck has always approached the draft historically. He’d rather more shots at hitting than a potential big swing and miss

 

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If colleges don't play at least a fair number of games, the players will be slower to develop, but will still be the same players physically and talent-wise once they get pro coaching and pro action under their belt - in some cases less to unlearn. So the value of the draft class will be about the same, but it will he harder to spot who will be the achievers and who won't.That means a harder task to be right on picks, but also a higher chance of getting a better player than you expected. It probably hurts good drafters some and helps the odds for poorer drafters.There still will be tape on most guys and the combine. Teams never can know everything and now will know a bit less. The value of good scouting will rise.

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38 minutes ago, Babooya said:

Definitely, I just didn’t see it acknowledged in the  conclusion that the Jets ripped off Seattle. Teams are valuing those picks differently, which in typical markets allows arbitrage opportunity.

Financial commitments to first rounders vs later are substantial and if variance is much higher in player outcome the value equations change. It’s kind of how Belicheck has always approached the draft historically. He’d rather more shots at hitting than a potential big swing and miss

I totally agree with your first point that it should be factored in. I had the same thought because the same thing is going on in fantasy dynasty rookie drafts for 2021 right now. How does one value future picks given the informational uncertainty sure to come?

That said, I think you used a poor example. Bill Belichick has actually arguably performed incredibly poorly in the draft for the very reason you give. He trades down and out of really good players. First example that comes to mind is passing on Heisman Ingram to draft Vereen and Ridley back-to-back in the second. Sometimes cents on the dollar are just that.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, rockaction said:

I totally agree with your first point that it should be factored in. I had the same thought because the same thing is going on in fantasy dynasty rookie drafts for 2021 right now. How does one value future picks given the informational uncertainty sure to come?

That said, I think you used a poor example. Bill Belichick has actually arguably performed incredibly poorly in the draft for the very reason you give. He trades down and out of really good players. First example that comes to mind is passing on Heisman Ingram to draft Vereen and Ridley back-to-back in the second. Sometimes cents on the dollar are just that.

At least it’s an ethos dude

 

 

...agreed on NE bad drafts. Vereen would have been pretty good if he could have stayed healthy. No matter what position you are you have to pick the right guys 

Edited by Babooya
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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

My title was edited out. LOL.

That was money.

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Posted (edited)

Pats Hightower and starting RT opting out this yr....maybe Belichick sees the writing on the wall and is tanking for Trevor!  

crazy as it seems - even losing Adams - it is not impossible for the Jets to take this division.....

edit: add Chung to the list

Edited by Kiddnets

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I think its all irrelevant, as I dont think we're going to have a season.

But kudos to Bill for coming up with this next level strategy to get Lawrence. I hate the guy, but you gotta admire the outside the box thinking.

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Bill isn’t getting Lawrence, the basement floor is 6 wins. OL holes and starting MLB out have been a yearly routine since the Jerod Mayo era

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24 minutes ago, Babooya said:

Bill isn’t getting Lawrence, the basement floor is 6 wins. OL holes and starting MLB out have been a yearly routine since the Jerod Mayo era

We'll see how he adjusts the offense to fit Cam (Assuming Cam is even healthy).

As a long suffering Jet fan, I'm always worried that Bill's playing 3d chess while the rest of the teams play candyland.

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I have it on good authority that the Jets are about to sign Jadeveon Clowney.  Apparently, Bradley McDougald wants Clowney on the team, and from what I hear, Clowney himself wants to sign with the Jets.  Does anyone think Jadeveon Clowney would make the Jets any better than they are right now?

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At this point, I think Clowney wants to sign with whoever will give him $15+ Million. I still dont think Douglas is the one that's going to do that.

I'd still be very surprised if this happened. Even with Clowney playing at his best (which is a good player, but not the game changer we thought he'd be coming out) the Jets aren't a contender. And I think they know this.

Obviously the expectations for this year is that they'll be in the playoff mix. Even without Adams, (and Anderson gone) they should be better considering what they've added/gotten back from injury.  

To me, this is a "be in the hunt" kinda year where the only thing that REALLY matters is whether Sam looks like the guy. If he takes a step and they win like 9-10 games this year, (unlikely, IMO due to Gase and the schedule)  next year is the year you try to load up and go for it.   And if you're gonna do that, you're better off just rolling over the open cap space to next season.

And honestly....I kinda dont think we're having a season anyway.

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16 hours ago, TLEF316 said:

At this point, I think Clowney wants to sign with whoever will give him $15+ Million. I still dont think Douglas is the one that's going to do that.

I'd still be very surprised if this happened. Even with Clowney playing at his best (which is a good player, but not the game changer we thought he'd be coming out) the Jets aren't a contender. And I think they know this.

Obviously the expectations for this year is that they'll be in the playoff mix. Even without Adams, (and Anderson gone) they should be better considering what they've added/gotten back from injury.  

To me, this is a "be in the hunt" kinda year where the only thing that REALLY matters is whether Sam looks like the guy. If he takes a step and they win like 9-10 games this year, (unlikely, IMO due to Gase and the schedule)  next year is the year you try to load up and go for it.   And if you're gonna do that, you're better off just rolling over the open cap space to next season.

And honestly....I kinda dont think we're having a season anyway.

Id be shocked if they signed Clowney - with the cloudiness of even having a season along with the big cut in cap next season by around $50M- I think JD rolls the cap room into next year.  They are already $57M under and adding an extra $20M to that gets them to $77M....if they cut Bell, Anderson and Quincy they would be close to $100M under when most teams will be slashing and cutting players to get under....they would be able to grab a ton of solid players on the cheap....agree with above...develop OL and Sam - be in the playoff chase until Dec - then load up for the next 5 yrs in the offseason.  This is not the yr to add a Clowney to go for it...

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Good - just like Wilkerson and Richardson before him - the one decent top 10ish pick we make every 5 years, at the least relevant of positions, ALSO can't carry on his career as a Jet past his first contract.  We sure know how to pick em, even when we figure out how to pick em. 

The good news is all this BS continues to affirm my faith in Joe Douglas.

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Mosley out. Lol. Like 30 mil to play exactly zero full games.

See you guys next year

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COVID opt out....i guess that tolls his awful contract another yr and gives Gase another huge excuse.....

Guy missed 1 game in 5 seasons in Balt....signs with Jets and plays 1 game in 2 seasons.....unreal

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Even on the down side, trying to keep up with the Pats. 😠

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Winters just cut....roll another $7M into next yr cap.....

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Posted (edited)

Obvious move given the cap hit, his decline and the other upgrades they made.

Guy was a good soldier though. Had some pretty solid years (After a rough rookie campaign) but injuries took a toll. 

I have a theory that pretty much every team should draft a lineman from the mid-west or southeast with either their 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick every single year. Even if they're never spectacular,  there's a good chance you'll land a serviceable starter who will do his job and keep his mouth shut.  Too many coachable, fundamentally sound, country strong kids from Georgia and big ol' farm boys from Ohio to spend early picks chasing a LITTLE more upside.

I developed this theory shortly after it became clear that Vlad Ducasse was a wasted pick (LOL at drafting a project GUARD from freaking UMASS in the 2nd round. Let alone one that scored a 13 on the Wondrerlic)

Edited by TLEF316
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12 hours ago, TLEF316 said:

Obvious move given the cap hit, his decline and the other upgrades they made.

Guy was a good soldier though. Had some pretty solid years (After a rough rookie campaign) but injuries took a toll. 

I have a theory that pretty much every team should draft a lineman from the mid-west or southeast with either their 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick every single year. Even if they're never spectacular,  there's a good chance you'll land a serviceable starter who will do his job and keep his mouth shut.  Too many coachable, fundamentally sound, country strong kids from Georgia and big ol' farm boys from Ohio to spend early picks chasing a LITTLE more upside.

I developed this theory shortly after it became clear that Vlad Ducasse was a wasted pick (LOL at drafting a project GUARD from freaking UMASS in the 2nd round. Let alone one that scored a 13 on the Wondrerlic)

Completely agree - 

I think they were waiting until he passed the physical to cut him - assuming the cap goes down to what they are saying many teams are going to have to cut quality players to get under.....Jets will be in a great position - hope they roll it all over rather than spending it on a big signing for a rebuild yr.  

Winters was the last of the Rex/Idzick regime and a solid IOL - I also love drafting midwest OL - very high success rate.....

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19 hours ago, TLEF316 said:

Obvious move given the cap hit, his decline and the other upgrades they made.

Guy was a good soldier though. Had some pretty solid years (After a rough rookie campaign) but injuries took a toll. 

I have a theory that pretty much every team should draft a lineman from the mid-west or southeast with either their 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick every single year. Even if they're never spectacular,  there's a good chance you'll land a serviceable starter who will do his job and keep his mouth shut.  Too many coachable, fundamentally sound, country strong kids from Georgia and big ol' farm boys from Ohio to spend early picks chasing a LITTLE more upside.

I developed this theory shortly after it became clear that Vlad Ducasse was a wasted pick (LOL at drafting a project GUARD from freaking UMASS in the 2nd round. Let alone one that scored a 13 on the Wondrerlic)

Any strategy other than Mac’s never draft OL is fine with me. But in seriousness, I think that’s a decent strategy that you laid out - still you take a potential franchise OT when you can. 

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7 hours ago, Kiddnets said:

Completely agree - 

I think they were waiting until he passed the physical to cut him - assuming the cap goes down to what they are saying many teams are going to have to cut quality players to get under.....Jets will be in a great position - hope they roll it all over rather than spending it on a big signing for a rebuild yr.  

Winters was the last of the Rex/Idzick regime and a solid IOL - I also love drafting midwest OL - very high success rate.....

I hope they make the playoffs this year on the back of Sam, but it all honesty, playing for 2021 while still improving this year is the smart play. 

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Any strategy other than Mac’s never draft OL is fine with me. But in seriousness, I think that’s a decent strategy that you laid out - still you take a potential franchise OT when you can. 

Oh no question you still take a stud OT (or absolutely no brainer elite interior guy) in the first round. But I just think you should constantly be taking flyers at that spot in the middle rounds. You always need guys and I think it's pretty easy to spot guys that will be serviceable. 

But no project guys at that position. Take your early flyers on wrs and pass rushers.

Edited by TLEF316
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So yeah......Mosley apparently needs to "find his flame" during this time off.

Translation....a crappy team paid me $85 Million dollars, I played parts of 2 games and now I dont really feel like playing anymore.

Unfreaking real. Guarantee this guy will be useless when he comes back.

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Kalen Ballage. We already have Bell, Gore, Perine.

Now a guy that can't average over two yards a carry.

Seriously. #### this team. 

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Kalen Ballage. We already have Bell, Gore, Perine.

Now a guy that can't average over two yards a carry.

Seriously. #### this team. 

Is bell on the Way out now, if not, what the heck??

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, mphtrilogy said:

Is bell on the Way out now, if not, what the heck??

I misread this. I have no idea if he is. It doesn't make any sense to sign Ballage. Just perplexing and confusing.

Edited by rockaction

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Didn't even let him get to waivers.And right after the Gase/Bell "hamstring disagreement." 
Gase really likes who he likes, I guess. Anyone else left from his Mia days besides Gore and Ballage?

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Kalen Ballage. We already have Bell, Gore, Perine.

Now a guy that can't average over two yards a carry.

Seriously. #### this team. 

I’m not a fan but he’ll probably be released before Week One, and maybe resigned so they don’t have to guarantee his contract or maybe not at all. 
I don’t see him as anyone they have plans for. 

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Actually I didn’t know they made a trade for him. That is weird.

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I have the feeling that if someone else lost a running back and offered us a 3rd rounder, Gase would be in Douglas' office BEGGING him to take it.

Dude is a clown.  This year is going to suck.....because they're obviously not good enough to make a playoff run....but if they win 9 or 10 games, Gase survives another year unless Douglas just straight up can't stand him personally and convinces Johnson to oust him.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

I have the feeling that if someone else lost a running back and offered us a 3rd rounder, Gase would be in Douglas' office BEGGING him to take it.

Dude is a clown.  This year is going to suck.....because they're obviously not good enough to make a playoff run....but if they win 9 or 10 games, Gase survives another year unless Douglas just straight up can't stand him personally and convinces Johnson to oust him.

I don't see how, with this schedule, they win nine or ten games. Not seeing it. They should have just fired Gase. He's a placeholder right now and the team is a mess.

Edited by rockaction
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Not only is Case incredibly stupid, he also seems to be a wiesel-like sleezeball as well. Am I missing something here?

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Just now, cloppbeast said:

Not only is Case incredibly stupid, he also seems to be a wiesel-like sleezeball as well. Am I missing something here?

Not really. And he has creepy googly eyes at times, too. The whole shebang, this guy.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Not really. And he has creepy googly eyes at times, too. The whole shebang, this guy.

Sorry fellas. You jets fans deserve better.

On the bright side at least you don't have to live with him. Poor Mrs. Gase.....

Edited by cloppbeast
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28 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

I have the feeling that if someone else lost a running back and offered us a 3rd rounder, Gase would be in Douglas' office BEGGING him to take it.

As a Bears fan, during that brief time frame yesterday, when it sounded like Montgomery suffered a potential season ending injury and not the 2-4 week injury it turned out to be, I instantly wondered how much it would cost the Bears for Bell. I was thinking a 5th if they took the entire contract.

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4 minutes ago, travdogg said:

As a Bears fan, during that brief time frame yesterday, when it sounded like Montgomery suffered a potential season ending injury and not the 2-4 week injury it turned out to be, I instantly wondered how much it would cost the Bears for Bell. I was thinking a 5th if they took the entire contract.

I think he'd come basically free if they took the contract.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, travdogg said:

As a Bears fan, during that brief time frame yesterday, when it sounded like Montgomery suffered a potential season ending injury and not the 2-4 week injury it turned out to be, I instantly wondered how much it would cost the Bears for Bell. I was thinking a 5th if they took the entire contract.

I think Gase would take it. Douglas would (hopefully) tell him to go pound sand

Even if you believe that he's never going to be even 85% as productive as he was with Pittsburgh (a reasonable assumption, although I think last year's struggles were mostly O-line related), he's the best weapon the Jets have right now.  Perriman could be a month long flash in the pan, Crowder is just a really good slot guy and Mims is hurt.  Herndon clearly has potential but after missing a whole year, who knows.

At some point.....you have to give Darnold SOMEONE with some game breaking potential. Even if Bell PROBABLY isn't that guy anymore, there's still a chance he bounces back. Trading him at this point would be awful.

Of course, that probably means Gase wants it to happen, because he's a goof who thinks he is WAY smarter than he is.

Edited by TLEF316
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59 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Not only is Case incredibly stupid, he also seems to be a wiesel-like sleezeball as well. Am I missing something here?

Don’t like him but have to hope he succeeds or we’re blowing Darnold’s rookie deal and forcing him to learn another new offense next year.

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44 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Don’t like him but have to hope he succeeds or we’re blowing Darnold’s rookie deal and forcing him to learn another new offense next year.

Go root for the Bills instead. You don't have to put yourself thru this. Gase is an even less likeable George Castanza. Have you seen him without his hat on?

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12 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

Go root for the Bills instead. 

Nah.

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48 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

And now Bell and Gase have had "a good talk" and Ballage failed his physical, so reverts to Miami.

Our long and national nightmare is over.

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In other news: The Jets are still ####e.

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