Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Derrick Henry for the 1.06 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dansav
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Pretty simple...if you like 6 players in the draft better than Henry you make the deal...if you don't you don't make it...that being said I would shop him around to see what else is around before you take that deal...that is not an overpay by any means, there could be something better out there...Henry is one of those players that has a big swing with how owners view him...
foxco
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
This.
Also there is absolutely someone out there that would pay more. Now I'm wondering if I should try to buy Henry.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Boone22
Footballguy
If you compare just the NFL draft scores, Herry’s 6.1rating would put him 4th this year behind Barkley, Guice, and Jones. I think you also have to consider that he’s not know for catching passes so in PPR leagues you have to knock him down a bit below that as he’s more of a 2-down back.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I would seriously consider moving henry in dynasty PPR leagues. if they guy is offering 1.06, hit up the guy with the 1.03 or 1.04 and see if there is interest.
Tennessee will add a pass catching back at least, they have no depth behind Henry.
Tennessee will add a pass catching back at least, they have no depth behind Henry.
Last edited by a moderator:
-OZ-
Footballguy
1st round - disappointed. (ETA, more as a Titans fan as they have more pressing needs and RB won't be BPA at their pick)
2nd round - less disappointed. In redraft wouldn't mean much probably, more important in dynasty.
3rd - ambivalent. If they release Murray they need another back. I'd rather they sign McKinnon but drafting a 3rd down / cop back would be fine.
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think hes talking the NFL.com draft ratings, which a lot of use dyno freaks would consider pretty terrible
Soulfly3
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
The Titans drafting a RB isn't a big deal to Henry because they need more RBs
Last edited by a moderator:
-OZ-
Footballguy
This, plus I suspect Vrabel won't throw the rookie in over Henry for the majority of carries in his rookie year. He's not Mularkey so I guess we don't really know utilization but I'll bet on Henry.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
spider321
Footballguy
Oh. I prefer Barkley, too, but I would not consider less than that for Henry. ...and I don’t even own Henry. Lol.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Boone22 said:
I just do not understand this kind of thinking. What was Trent Richardson’s pre-draft grade? CJ Spiller’s? Knowshon Moreno’s? Reggie Bush’s?
Henry is a known at the NFL level. His pre-draft grade is completely meaningless. All the incoming rookies are nothing better than speculative.
- Edited to soften the initial statement.
Last edited by a moderator:
Boone22
Footballguy
It’s funny... I see that 6.1 grade as support of his performance to date. You cherry picked 4 guys who underperformed their grades. I’m using the 6.1 to support Henry’s performance to date and say he was the second best RB drafted in 2016 behind Zeke, who by the way graded out as a 7.0. So to me his ranking feels pretty spot on. By the way, the other guy who ranked with a 6.1 that year... Jordan Howard. Another ranking that feels about right.
Now if you are saying the incoming rookies could flame out spectacularly and miss their current NFL grades, I can’t disagree with that... poop happens. But saying there are potentially 3-4 rookies in this draft who “could” outperform him isn’t all that far fetched. Especially in PPR leagues where Henry hasn’t exactly been a reception machine.
Last edited by a moderator:
bostonfred
Footballguy
He's known for his 3 nfl starts, all against playoff teams, in which he had 357 total yards and 2 touchdowns.
He's also known for his 286 carries for 1234 yards (4.3 yards per carry) and 24 catches for 273 (11.4 yards per reception) and 11 touchdowns in two regular seasons. He added 35 rushes for 184 yards (5.3 ypc) and a touchdown and 5 catches for 56 (11.2 ypr) in the post season.
He also is known to play behind a good o line with a mobile quarterback and a tight end who puts stress on the linebacker/safety.
And he's known for playing well against his division. He had games of 89, 92, 109, 117, and 145 yards with 4 touchdowns against Indy, Jacksonville and Houston this year, despite only starting one of those games. The other game was a horrific 6 carries for 7 yards. But even then - in 6 games he had 559 yards and 4 touchdowns which is pace for 1360/10. As a backup.
He's known for being a physical specimen who had a huge college workload, but has very low mileage in his first two seasons and could be capable of 300+ carries. In his 3 starts he had 63 carries (at 3.7 ypc) and 6 catches which is in line with a high projected workload.
He's also known for having 910 total yards and 6 touchdowns as a backup this year, on 187 total touches (176 rush, 11 rec). So if that workload increases to "just" 250 carries, that would project to about 1300/9. If it goes higher than that, his ceiling is potentially very high.
Thanks for response but none of that is anything to do with being a "known" at the NFL level when used in the context it was used or in a fantasy context.
He's actually less "known" than say Tevin Coleman in the NFL and people are not paying pick 6 for Tevin Coleman.
If you are investing in Henry you are in fact speculating he'll do more then he's shown, you are not paying his price for what you have seen him show, for the part that is "known".
bostonfred
Footballguy
That's an interesting comparison.
Both have 3 career starts
Coleman 265 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 reception
Henry 357 yards, 2 touchdowns, 6 receptions
Very similar career averages
Henry 4.31 ypc and 11.38 ypr
Coleman 4.27 ypc and 12.23 ypr
Henry gets slightly more carries
Henry 286 carries in 2 years
Coleman 361 carries in 3 years
Coleman actually averages about one more touchdown per year
Henry 11 touchdowns in 2 years
Coleman 20 touchdowns in 3 years
Very similar.
I'm not sure if I'm supposed to like Coleman more or Henry less because of the comparison, but the reason I like Henry more is that he appears to be the starter going forward, and Coleman doesn't, and might never be in line to start. That's a pretty significant difference.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I agree, except that is also still speculation. If Murray sticks around I’d still like Henry as a buy but not for that price. If he is indeed the guy back there and they use a 4th+ rd pick on a back up I think you could make a case for 1.03. If Murray leaves and they sign someone like Chris Thompson to be the receiving back then I think he’s closer to a late first. Likely worth the pick but it’s a little early for me to take the chance.
@menobrown I’m curious- with the sample size we’ve seen and making the assumption that he is the starter, do you find his game flawed? If he’s in line for a good workload, do you think he will produce or be replaced in a year? We certainly know more about him than whoever you draft at 1.06, and I think he’s shown pretty well and looks like he belongs out there. I’m curious if you don’t like Henry or simply think the value is skewed.
Boone22
Footballguy
I’m not Meno so I can’t speak for him but since it looks like he and I are on the same side in this discussion I’ll give my opinion...
Based on my comments above I see him valued right around 1.05-1.06 based on the unknowns. I can’t see giving up the 1.03 or earlier as some people have mentioned. My reasons being...
1) We don’t know how much he’ll be used in the passing game going forward. With the new coaching staff and him not having a big resume when it comes to receptions that makes me a bit leary of him in PPR leagues.
and
2) We don’t know whether Tenn will bring someone else in through the draft or Free Agency.
I guess I just can’t see spending MORE than the 1.06 at this point in time. If you are willing to give up more to get him why not wait until after the draft to see how things shake out. I don’t see his value increasing (beyond the 1.02-1.03) so why spend that now when there are still a bunch of unknowns.
I think a potentially good comparison to Henry is Jordan Howard. What do people feel his value is in rookie picks? I think Henry could become a slightly better Howard if he becomes the unquestioned starter and everything falls just right.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Thanks for not answering the questions asked, and further for completely either missing or dodging the point.
And as to “cherry picking”, that’s just under half of the top picks at RB when a RB was taken in the upper half of the first round since 2006. You know, can’t-miss type guys. I can post a lot more names if we want to widen those parameters a bit.
.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
That his skill set had pretty much transferred over in total to the NFL level. Perhaps you disagree? That’s something that not one RB in this draft class has had the opportunity to prove yet, and therefore is unknown. And as we can see from the examples I posted above, it does happen that the transfer does not always occur for the top RBs in a draft class.
Last edited by a moderator:
Boone22
Footballguy
And apparently you’re completely missing my point, which is fine. I’m not going to get into a message board argument. We can agree to disagree and move on.
Last edited by a moderator:
I just threw Coleman's name out as someone who has been similarly productive on a per touch basis to address to some degree the "known" part of this equation. In both cases those RB's have had some level of success when pressed to be the starter, but we still don't know if any of them are complementary RB's.
I like Coleman more myself as a player but would take Henry over him for the obvious reason you stated regarding him appearing to be the starter, only I don't think that's as clear cut as you likely do which I'll address more in my next response to Snorkelson. But he's got a chance this off-season which TC does not not. Did not mean to make this a TC vs DH discussion, but while on subject of TC he hits FA next year and I think will have a better shot to become a starting RB next off-season then Henry has this off-season. Which is based on a few factors regarding Henry which I'll mention next but also because I don't think Falcons can pay TC after paying Freeman so when he hits UFA he'll be able to pick his spot which I think helps, but enough about him.
Yes I do find his game flawed. Some positives as well with main one being his size/speed combo makes him as dangerous as any RB in the NFL if he can get in space or to second level of defense and maintain his build up speed.
But on those flaws I see. Slow build up speed is my biggest knock on him. It helps he plays behind a good OL which can help him but I think he needs a bit of a runway. My second biggest knock on him kind of goes to his running style which is inconsistent. It's kind of ironic a knock on him coming into the league was lack of lateral quickness because reality is he tries to cut to much outside which goes hand in hand with another flaw which is he far to often does not run with the power someone of his size should run with. I find his play inconsistent in general, to many negative runs, not consistently running with power. He can catch well enough and again if you can get to him in space and allow him to get a head of steam he is as dangerous as it gets but he also looks confused in pass protection at times. This to me is a the makeup of a RB you like to have in your rotation, but not to me the makeup of a the foundation of your running game.
You had mentioned that he has shown pretty well and I would say at times he absolutely has but at other times he has looked awful. Again a very inconsistent player.
I think the Titans make a fairly significant investment in another RB through FA or the draft. A RB that will either compete with Henry to be the main guy or make up a RBBC. If I'm wrong on this and he survives FA and draft without a big challenge he'll be worth more than pick 6 for sure.
In a nutshell I don't think the flaws I see or positives other people see will drive his value, it's the workload or perceived workload and I just have more concerns than most on that. I think those who believe in him and think he's worth pick 1.2 or the such believe he's the bell cow in waiting and if he is they might be right on their valuation. I don't feel this way and why I tend to put his value as something more in the 6-8 range right now.
This is always an annoying time of year at this stage in a RBs career.
People point out what a RB can't do and that makes your mind drift toward a replacement or time sharer.
Throw in a new coach, new staff, new offense, and now people are saying he is not the right type for a zone blocking offense.
I'll tell ya this-
The Yulee Express has done everything the Titans asked of him. Don't forget people were down on Murray and expected Henry to take over during his rookie season. Murray had a splendid year and Henry was well-seated in the backup role. He returned well before the required date and somehow the biggest back in football got even bigger. (The guy lifts more weights than most linemen and some of those videos are still wow) With permission from the Titans, he returned to school and got his degree. (Mularkey would apologize for the miscommunication, it was cleared) He was the top back throughout the entire offseason, not Murray. Murray was out with a hammy, a hangnail, and anything else they could think of. Murray had become Mularkey and Croom's darling or teacher's pet. He was starting no matter what Henry did.
What did Henry do? He outrushed the starter. His yardage total surpassed Murray's on a few occasions in 2017. It's extremely rare for a backup RB to remain the backup when he outrushes the starter, but he did.
Poor hands? Guy worked on it all offseason before his rookie year. He didn't think there was an issue but he thought that he better answer the bell. He finished with an 86% catch rate. No one with bad hands has an 86% catch rate.
Many seem to be unaware that Henry has lined up as the fullback very often. He has also lined out wide as a receiver a large number of times.
He's been relatively quiet and said all the right things about contributing to the team. He's a gem of an offseason type with the workouts and charity appearances and stuff. They cut Henry's BFF, Jalston Fowler, and even then Henry was a "good boy" and said all the right things.
Few talk about it but Henry was arguably the best high school RB ever. Barry's RB coach, Sylvester Croom, is who groomed him in his first two years. Works out with Eddie George and George has been at camp a number of times working with the backs. These are just a nice anecdote but, good for a young back to have on his resume.
At this moment, Henry is the perfect dynasty RB prospect. You map out what you want a guy to be capable of, how to act, who to teach him, who to learn from, type of line to run behind....everything with him is a checkmark on the list.
Right now, hope and aspirations are probably making you rank Barkley or someone else ahead of him. Maybe you think you're a scout (we all do this dance) and Barkley looks better to you. This is all your gut thoughts and affect all our rankings. You're not wrong, it's your opinion. However, you ought to make a mental note of what Henry has accomplished versus what others haven't yet. This is what I think is at the heart of everyone's debates of Henry versus some rookie. It's not what Henry is or isn't capable of but the hopeful career of some rook.
A couple other notes- Taylor Lewan is about to be a superstar or whatever top linemen are considered. A household name? Despite everyone knowing the Titans loved to run left, their runningbacks averaged 10.22 yards running around the left end. That is about as dominant a stat as an NFL lineman can somehow produce. It'll send you looking up stats and wondering about Anthony Munoz and some of the best ever. It's really something special.
Henry is an absolute gem of a man for Yulee, where he grew up. He goes and spends time with less fortunate youth and donates to tons of things. The nickname Yulee Express came from his high school days but now he loves it because it's a sense of pride in how he has grown up and been able to give back. He loves when people call him that now and interviews of him discussing growing up and giving back just give all the feels. The phrase triggers memories of people raising him right and all these things. You all do you and all, but now that I know this invigorates him and triggers him to be more and more of a nice guy, geesh I call him that every chance I get. If only it were that easy to get all NFL players to be gems.
People point out what a RB can't do and that makes your mind drift toward a replacement or time sharer.
Throw in a new coach, new staff, new offense, and now people are saying he is not the right type for a zone blocking offense.
I'll tell ya this-
The Yulee Express has done everything the Titans asked of him. Don't forget people were down on Murray and expected Henry to take over during his rookie season. Murray had a splendid year and Henry was well-seated in the backup role. He returned well before the required date and somehow the biggest back in football got even bigger. (The guy lifts more weights than most linemen and some of those videos are still wow) With permission from the Titans, he returned to school and got his degree. (Mularkey would apologize for the miscommunication, it was cleared) He was the top back throughout the entire offseason, not Murray. Murray was out with a hammy, a hangnail, and anything else they could think of. Murray had become Mularkey and Croom's darling or teacher's pet. He was starting no matter what Henry did.
What did Henry do? He outrushed the starter. His yardage total surpassed Murray's on a few occasions in 2017. It's extremely rare for a backup RB to remain the backup when he outrushes the starter, but he did.
Poor hands? Guy worked on it all offseason before his rookie year. He didn't think there was an issue but he thought that he better answer the bell. He finished with an 86% catch rate. No one with bad hands has an 86% catch rate.
Many seem to be unaware that Henry has lined up as the fullback very often. He has also lined out wide as a receiver a large number of times.
He's been relatively quiet and said all the right things about contributing to the team. He's a gem of an offseason type with the workouts and charity appearances and stuff. They cut Henry's BFF, Jalston Fowler, and even then Henry was a "good boy" and said all the right things.
Few talk about it but Henry was arguably the best high school RB ever. Barry's RB coach, Sylvester Croom, is who groomed him in his first two years. Works out with Eddie George and George has been at camp a number of times working with the backs. These are just a nice anecdote but, good for a young back to have on his resume.
At this moment, Henry is the perfect dynasty RB prospect. You map out what you want a guy to be capable of, how to act, who to teach him, who to learn from, type of line to run behind....everything with him is a checkmark on the list.
Right now, hope and aspirations are probably making you rank Barkley or someone else ahead of him. Maybe you think you're a scout (we all do this dance) and Barkley looks better to you. This is all your gut thoughts and affect all our rankings. You're not wrong, it's your opinion. However, you ought to make a mental note of what Henry has accomplished versus what others haven't yet. This is what I think is at the heart of everyone's debates of Henry versus some rookie. It's not what Henry is or isn't capable of but the hopeful career of some rook.
A couple other notes- Taylor Lewan is about to be a superstar or whatever top linemen are considered. A household name? Despite everyone knowing the Titans loved to run left, their runningbacks averaged 10.22 yards running around the left end. That is about as dominant a stat as an NFL lineman can somehow produce. It'll send you looking up stats and wondering about Anthony Munoz and some of the best ever. It's really something special.
Henry is an absolute gem of a man for Yulee, where he grew up. He goes and spends time with less fortunate youth and donates to tons of things. The nickname Yulee Express came from his high school days but now he loves it because it's a sense of pride in how he has grown up and been able to give back. He loves when people call him that now and interviews of him discussing growing up and giving back just give all the feels. The phrase triggers memories of people raising him right and all these things. You all do you and all, but now that I know this invigorates him and triggers him to be more and more of a nice guy, geesh I call him that every chance I get. If only it were that easy to get all NFL players to be gems.
Boone22
Footballguy
Titans agreed to terms with RB Dion Lewis, formerly of the Patriots, on a four-year contract.
The Derrick Henry bellcow status lasted for all of five days. The Titans released DeMarco Murray last Thursday and add the more talented Lewis to pair with Henry in what will likely be a backfield tough to figure out at times in 2018. Lewis is by no means just a pass-down back, as he proved late last season when he carried the Patriots' offense on his back. He can bang it between the tackles in addition to excelling in the pass game. Lewis is the latest in a long line of former ex-Patriots to head to Nashville. This will be a backfield to watch closely.
This is exactly why I said this type of trade should wait until after the draft...
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
i think they were always going to bring in a 3rd down receiving back. Henry should still get most of the early down carries and goal line work.
Overall not really a surprise.
