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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020

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On 9/18/2018 at 11:33 AM, Ilov80s said:

Lots of negativity here in Detroit on the tariffs. Automakers are preparing for a downturn and it is being suggested if you are in the market for a new vehicle, move quickly. 

Does everyone agree with this? Was planning on buying a new Honda Accord next summer.  Should I move it up to now?

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1 hour ago, pokin said:
On 18/9/2018 at 5:33 PM, Ilov80s said:

Lots of negativity here in Detroit on the tariffs. Automakers are preparing for a downturn and it is being suggested if you are in the market for a new vehicle, move quickly. 

Does everyone agree with this? Was planning on buying a new Honda Accord next summer.  Should I move it up to now?

Not sure

On one hand, the tariffs may be higher then, resulting in a higher sticker price

On the other hand, if no one is buying you  may be able to get a good deal out of the dealers desperation

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7 hours ago, pokin said:

Does everyone agree with this? Was planning on buying a new Honda Accord next summer.  Should I move it up to now?

I don't know about everyone. That was the opinion of a couple different Detroit writers who cover the auto beat so they are well sourced. Now maybe it's the auto companies trying to drum up sales, but I think it's clear Trump's economic polices are not good for the auto industry. 

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18 hours ago, Mile High said:

Jack Ma, founder and chairman of Chinese retail giant Alibaba, says the company no longer plans to create 1 million jobs in the United States in the wake of the ongoing trade conflictbetween the U.S. and China.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/09/19/jack-ma-alibaba-is-no-longer-planning-to-create-1-million-us-jobs.html

 

50 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Chinese tech billionaire Jack Ma's promise to create 1 million new US jobs is the latest casualty of the trade war.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/19/technology/alibaba-trade-war-jobs/index.html

 

 

Let's take a minute to remember what those promised jobs were:
 

Quote

The Chinese e-commerce giant said the positions would be generated through Alibaba adding 1-million small-and medium-sized US businesses to its platforms, estimating that each one will hire a new person as a result of the added commerce.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/asia/2017-01-10-chinas-jack-ma-promises-trump-alibaba-will-create-1-million-us-jobs/

A nebulous promise based on an unrealistic expectation. Alibaba would expect to pull marketshare from Amazon and eBay and Jet.com and a host of other ecommerce sites. Jobs would exist from more products sold or higher margin. Not from just an additional sales channel.

ETA: If we're talking about e-commerce sites and the profits generated by them, I'd prefer those profits to stay with an American HQ company, such as Amazon than a Chinese company, such as Alibaba.

 

Edited by Gawain
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25 minutes ago, Gawain said:

 

Let's take a minute to remember what those promised jobs were:
 

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/asia/2017-01-10-chinas-jack-ma-promises-trump-alibaba-will-create-1-million-us-jobs/

A nebulous promise based on an unrealistic expectation. Alibaba would expect to pull marketshare from Amazon and eBay and Jet.com and a host of other ecommerce sites. Jobs would exist from more products sold or higher margin. Not from just an additional sales channel.

ETA: If we're talking about e-commerce sites and the profits generated by them, I'd prefer those profits to stay with an American HQ company, such as Amazon than a Chinese company, such as Alibaba.

 

Good point. Althought Trump loved the idea at the time and thought it was a big plus for the US economy:

Quote

"Jack and I are going to do some great things together," Trump said in the lobby of the Trump Tower in New York. After the meeting, Alibaba tweeted that it "wants to create US jobs by helping US small businesses and farmers sell to China’s 300-million-strong middle-class."

 

Edited by Ilov80s

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9 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Good point. Althought Trump loved the idea at the time and thought it was a big plus for the US economy:

 

The promise was as dumb then as it is now.
The idea that 1 million businesses are going to hire an additional American to deal with selling on TMall or Alibaba is silly.

The company I work for sells on TMall. Our China office handles it. 

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11 hours ago, Gawain said:

How are prices now compared to 2011? At least in your industry it's probably not too often that a factory tries to pass ABS plated crap as the real deal.

Do you think these projects aren't feasible ever at current price points or that plans were put on hold due to the likelihood of a decrease after resolution of the tarrif tête-à-tête? 

I cannot say off the top of my head will have to do some research on price history. Pricing in the pipe world generally trends with the price of oil (higher oil price = more companies trying to bring oil to market = more pipelines needed).

The project on hold are not due to the speculation that the price of steel will eventually drop -- they are on hold due to economies at current oil prices.

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15 hours ago, The Commish said:

The markets understand the impacts aren't going to be immediate.  All you need to know is they are already talking about recession which was on exactly NO ONE'S radar 9 months ago.  All predictions were 4-5 years out at that time.

The markets understand that the trade wars will be resolved in the next 12 months.  Somebody has used the recession word for the past 8+years of the bull run, nothing new.  Market up 200 today, maybe we need to start a trade war with another country,

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54 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

The markets understand that the trade wars will be resolved in the next 12 months.  Somebody has used the recession word for the past 8+years of the bull run, nothing new.  Market up 200 today, maybe we need to start a trade war with another country,

oh ok

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22 hours ago, Mile High said:

Jack Ma, founder and chairman of Chinese retail giant Alibaba, says the company no longer plans to create 1 million jobs in the United States in the wake of the ongoing trade conflictbetween the U.S. and China.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/09/19/jack-ma-alibaba-is-no-longer-planning-to-create-1-million-us-jobs.html

Who cares. We don't have a million available workers to fill those jobs. Trump is crushing China with tariffs.  Our markets are at new highs. Thiers is down 20%. That's a hint. When this gets resolved and the Chinese come groveling to Trump, 'Pleas Mr. Trump, quit punishing us with your powerful tariffs, we give up already', then go long emerging markets.

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3 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Who cares. We don't have a million available workers to fill those jobs. Trump is crushing China with tariffs.  Our markets are at new highs. Thiers is down 20%. That's a hint. When this gets resolved and the Chinese come groveling to Trump, 'Pleas Mr. Trump, quit punishing us with your powerful tariffs, we give up already', then go long emerging markets.

I'm going out on a limb here and assuming you have a list of the jobs that they'd be creating, yes?

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I put very low odds on China groveling to Trump. They'd take a 6 year economic downturn over losing face like that.

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15 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I'm going out on a limb here and assuming you have a list of the jobs that they'd be creating, yes?

What?

Dude, there are over 5 million open jobs currently that can't be filled simply because there is no one qualified to do the work. All that is left not holding a job in the USA is the dumb and the drug addicted. This article from May touts 6.6 mil. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/08/the-u-s-now-has-a-record-6-6-million-job-openings/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d0ffa42843ca

When the dems were in control they were great jobs and the reps said they were low paying. Now the reps are in control and they are great jobs and the dems say they are crumbs. Since I reside between both, I know they are a mix of all skill levels. The fact remains, there are over 5 million and climbing.

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27 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Who cares. We don't have a million available workers to fill those jobs. Trump is crushing China with tariffs.  Our markets are at new highs. Thiers is down 20%. That's a hint. When this gets resolved and the Chinese come groveling to Trump, 'Pleas Mr. Trump, quit punishing us with your powerful tariffs, we give up already', then go long emerging markets.

We don't have the people to fill most of the jobs Trump promises.  

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Just now, Mile High said:

We don't have the people to fill most of the jobs Trump promises.  

He doesn't have to promise any. They are already sitting there unfilled.

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6 minutes ago, lod001 said:

He doesn't have to promise any. They are already sitting there unfilled.

Then what is the point in bringing jobs back from other countries if there is no one to fill them?

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27 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Who cares. We don't have a million available workers to fill those jobs. Trump is crushing China with tariffs.  Our markets are at new highs. Thiers is down 20%. That's a hint. When this gets resolved and the Chinese come groveling to Trump, 'Pleas Mr. Trump, quit punishing us with your powerful tariffs, we give up already', then go long emerging markets.

There is a very long institutional history in China of acquiescing to government demands. There's not so much of it in the USA. 

21 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

I put very low odds on China groveling to Trump. They'd take a 6 year economic downturn over losing face like that.

Agreed. The Chinese government can't roll over. A mutual understanding and status quo ante can definitely occur, but I think we may be waiting another two years for that.
Copyright/IP protection and stronger anti-counterfeiting laws are really what the world needs out of this dispute. The USA needs a trade imbalance as reserve currency. 
https://www.aier.org/article/real-reason-trade-deficit
 

Quote

By making international trade the culprit behind the American deficits, the U.S. government commits the error of blaming something extremely beneficial for a malaise that has different roots. The causal logic is the opposite of what the government claims. The position of the dollar as the main international reserve currency is the source of the financial inflows. These inflows, in turn, make it possible for the American economy to afford to have a low national savings rate because the inflow of foreign savings closes the gaps between domestic savings, on the one hand, and private investment and public spending, on the other.


 

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12 minutes ago, lod001 said:

What?

Dude, there are over 5 million open jobs currently that can't be filled simply because there is no one qualified to do the work. All that is left not holding a job in the USA is the dumb and the drug addicted. This article from May touts 6.6 mil. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/08/the-u-s-now-has-a-record-6-6-million-job-openings/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d0ffa42843ca

When the dems were in control they were great jobs and the reps said they were low paying. Now the reps are in control and they are great jobs and the dems say they are crumbs. Since I reside between both, I know they are a mix of all skill levels. The fact remains, there are over 5 million and climbing.

Don't really like getting in the way of a good rant (been saying that a lot around here lately) but you didn't answer my question.  I was asking what the jobs were this company was bringing here.  You made the statement that we didn't have people to fill them which tells me you know what the jobs are.  Otherwise you're just blowing smoke up your own ###.  There's no question we have a ton of jobs that can't be filled because we don't have the skill set.  It's been an issue for a while that our government continues to fail at.  We aren't supporting the individuals they way we need to in order to compete in the global economy.  That much is clear and really not arguable.  I don't really give a #### which "side" says what in this regard.  They are failing the individuals in this country.

However, the bold is categorically false and a really stupid thing to say.  Back to my question though.  I take it the lack of an answer to it initially means you don't have any idea of what the jobs were that were supposed to come with this company.  True?

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Just now, Mile High said:

Then what is the point in bringing jobs back from other countries if there is no one to fill them?

That's a good question and it could very well cause a problem here. I've been saying it for years that the IQ of this planet is dropping and that, regardless of fake stats, is undeniable. I've been asking others that have been working for 10-20-30 years and they all come to the exact same conclusion that the # of people that are completely clueless is increasing faster that the bubonic plague. Just ask someone. 'Does it seem like everyone is getting dumber'. The answer is a laugh and 'oh eff yeah'. maybe it's technology passing most humans by but its happening.

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18 hours ago, toshiba said:

Why would they?  The stock market doesn't care about the pain of the average American, just $$$

 

But how has the stock market done since the they started?

The market Dow is up about 3300 points since April 2; about the time the trade wars really being talked about.  The market should set a new record high today.  The us economy is growing at about 4 percent rate, if the average American is in pain their not showing it with their pocket books/spending.

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3 hours ago, lod001 said:

Who cares. We don't have a million available workers to fill those jobs. Trump is crushing China with tariffs.  Our markets are at new highs. Thiers is down 20%. That's a hint. When this gets resolved and the Chinese come groveling to Trump, 'Pleas Mr. Trump, quit punishing us with your powerful tariffs, we give up already', then go long emerging markets.

At some point you will realize he is punishing Americans right now eithnthe tariffs.

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2 hours ago, Gopher State said:

The market Dow is up about 3300 points since April 2; about the time the trade wars really being talked about.  The market should set a new record high today.  The us economy is growing at about 4 percent rate, if the average American is in pain their not showing it with their pocket books/spending.

That's good news but is the market actually doing anything for the average American's income?  People's 401k accounts are looking good but that really only helps the people who are going to take money out of it soon.  For the average, middle aged American, how is this helping them?  Unless their wages are going up or expenses going done I don't think it really affect them at the moment.

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

That's good news but is the market actually doing anything for the average American's income?  People's 401k accounts are looking good but that really only helps the people who are going to take money out of it soon.  For the average, middle aged American, how is this helping them?  Unless their wages are going up or expenses going done I don't think it really affect them at the moment.

Same could be said about jobs moving to China. It's didn't help the average worker, even if you want to argue that tv's are cheaper. When you're fry cook at McDonald's there's only so much you can buy regardless of the price. 

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Has the faerie dust sprinkled yet? Is there a Unicorn sighting?

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2 hours ago, Gopher State said:

 

21 hours ago, toshiba said:

Why would they?  The stock market doesn't care about the pain of the average American, just $$$

 

But how has the stock market done since the they started?

The market Dow is up about 3300 points since April 2; about the time the trade wars really being talked about.  The market should set a new record high today.  The us economy is growing at about 4 percent rate, if the average American is in pain their not showing it with their pocket books/spending.

 

Are we sure they’re not spending the same amount of money, just on fewer goods?

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31 minutes ago, msommer said:

Has the faerie dust sprinkled yet? Is there a Unicorn sighting?

Nope. And the country hasn't collapsed in on itself either. (which is probably killing you by this point)

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6 hours ago, Gopher State said:

The us economy is growing at about 4 percent rate

Should probably bust out the GDP graphs again here and here so all remember context.  

I feel like we have to take more time to explain this GDP stuff than what "evidence" means.  

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4 hours ago, msommer said:

Has the faerie dust sprinkled yet? Is there a Unicorn sighting?

Well their is talk of a blue wave in November

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3 hours ago, Gopher State said:

Well their is talk of a blue wave in November

*there

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7 hours ago, KCitons said:

Nope. And the country hasn't collapsed in on itself either. (which is probably killing you by this point)

Citation,please

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4 hours ago, msommer said:

Citation,please

Eyewitness report. I just looked out my window and the country is still their. 

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The increased costs associated with import tariffs hasn't hit consumer products yet. The prices you see on store shelves was mostly locked in with contacts signed 6, 8, 10 months ago. Importers can't recoup the fees paid to the government until they can renegotiate these contracts, whereupon they will try to regain their historical profit margins.

This year at my company, every single cent (and more) of productivity improvement (i.e. wringing cost out of the product) will be erased by commodity inflation and tariffs.  Coupled with a mixing down in margin of our products means we are less profitable (as a %) than last year, despite record high revenues.

The result is that we've been on a spending lock down since June, as that's the only thing we can control. That means no new hires, and positions are not backfilled if lost due to attrition. In other words, fewer dollars into the economy, less investment in personnel and equipment, and a less ambitious future. Tariffs are a big contributor to that reality.

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11 minutes ago, Sheriff Bart said:

Again, fishing 

 

14 hours ago, msommer said:

Has the faerie dust sprinkled yet? Is there a Unicorn sighting?

 

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4 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

I believe that @msommer is Danish, so that would be the correct English spelling in Europe for fairy.

Nobody cares about the spelling. The content is trolling. 

Unfortunately, @Sheriff Bart only calls it out when it's coming from the side he doesn't agree with. Just more proof of hypocrisy. 

 

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2 hours ago, KCitons said:

Eyewitness report. I just looked out my window and the country is still their. 

So nothing to back up your baseless accusation about me....

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:

The increased costs associated with import tariffs hasn't hit consumer products yet. The prices you see on store shelves was mostly locked in with contacts signed 6, 8, 10 months ago. Importers can't recoup the fees paid to the government until they can renegotiate these contracts, whereupon they will try to regain their historical profit margins.

This year at my company, every single cent (and more) of productivity improvement (i.e. wringing cost out of the product) will be erased by commodity inflation and tariffs.  Coupled with a mixing down in margin of our products means we are less profitable (as a %) than last year, despite record high revenues.

The result is that we've been on a spending lock down since June, as that's the only thing we can control. That means no new hires, and positions are not backfilled if lost due to attrition. In other words, fewer dollars into the economy, less investment in personnel and equipment, and a less ambitious future. Tariffs are a big contributor to that reality.

This is similar to what happened with insurance when our wonderful government couldn't seem to get out of it's own way (still can't).  All these companies, mine included, decided to slash benefits and drastically alter their plans using the new ACA changes as an excuse.  They hit well before the new laws took place.  There's no question companies are using these tariffs to get a premature raise in prices of their products.  And the government is all too willing just to sit there and provide them the rock to hide behind.  The price increases we are seeing on most things aren't because of the tariffs.  They are because the companies have made decisions to raise prices using the tariffs as an excuse to do so.  

This is part of why I have no idea how anyone in middle class America can be happy with these tax cuts.  It really is beyond logical explanation. 

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6 minutes ago, msommer said:

So nothing to back up your baseless accusation about me....

That you are a troll? 

Yes 

14 hours ago, msommer said:

Has the faerie dust sprinkled yet? Is there a Unicorn sighting?

 

 

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19 minutes ago, The Commish said:

There's no question companies are using these tariffs to get a premature raise in prices of their products.  And the government is all too willing just to sit there and provide them the rock to hide behind.  The price increases we are seeing on most things aren't because of the tariffs.  They are because the companies have made decisions to raise prices using the tariffs as an excuse to do so.  

That is the exact opposite of what I said. I said the price changes haven't happened in many cases since the wholesale prices that the retailers paid were locked in before the tariffs. Is the importers of the products that are taking the hit to their margins due to tariffs.

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23 minutes ago, KCitons said:

That you are a troll? 

Yes 

 

 

I love that you admit it is baseless :lol: 

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56 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

That is the exact opposite of what I said. I said the price changes haven't happened in many cases since the wholesale prices that the retailers paid were locked in before the tariffs. Is the importers of the products that are taking the hit to their margins due to tariffs.

But this isn't what we're seeing in some areas :oldunsure:

Take a look at washers/dryers for example...vehicles.....a good amount of the food products as well.  I guess it's a mixed bag at this point.

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47 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

That is the exact opposite of what I said. I said the price changes haven't happened in many cases since the wholesale prices that the retailers paid were locked in before the tariffs. Is the importers of the products that are taking the hit to their margins due to tariffs.

IDK what industry you are in, it would be interesting to know.
I think both you and Commish are correct, it just depends on the industry.

Ignoramus pointed out how his industry (steel) felt the tariff effects almost before they went into place. In the consumer electronics industry, everyone I know is taking a wait-and-see approach. To be the first to go to a retailer with a price increase based on tariffs is suicide.

I am no economist and couldn't state with any authority as to why industries are different, but I'd hazard a guess that direct to consumer products without contractual pricing are going to be the first to move, while products sold through distributors and retail storefronts (b&m or online) will feel the most resistance. I also think that high margin goods will have more resistance than lower margin products.

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On 20/09/2018 at 9:56 AM, Gawain said:

 

Let's take a minute to remember what those promised jobs were:
 

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/asia/2017-01-10-chinas-jack-ma-promises-trump-alibaba-will-create-1-million-us-jobs/

A nebulous promise based on an unrealistic expectation. Alibaba would expect to pull marketshare from Amazon and eBay and Jet.com and a host of other ecommerce sites. Jobs would exist from more products sold or higher margin. Not from just an additional sales channel.

ETA: If we're talking about e-commerce sites and the profits generated by them, I'd prefer those profits to stay with an American HQ company, such as Amazon than a Chinese company, such as Alibaba.

 

MCGA

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3 hours ago, msommer said:

I love that you admit it is baseless :lol: 

BREAKING: U.S. has not imploded due to tariffs.

Do you read any other posts? Or just mine.

As you can see, there are industries that have had negative effects from the tariffs, some have not seen any effect, and others have improved. 

What baseline are you using to determine success or failure. (or in better terms, unicorns or implosion)

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5 minutes ago, KCitons said:

BREAKING: U.S. has not imploded due to tariffs.

Narrator: Not a single person has stated this would be the case

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15 minutes ago, msommer said:

Narrator: Not a single person has stated this would be the case

Same applies to the statement below. 

19 hours ago, msommer said:

Has the faerie dust sprinkled yet? Is there a Unicorn sighting?

 

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On 9/20/2018 at 2:05 PM, The Z Machine said:

I put very low odds on China groveling to Trump. They'd take a 6 year economic downturn over losing face like that.

I agree with this under the general idea that this is part of China's slow attempt to become the world's #1 economic superpower.  Just look at their influence in Africa right now, and look at how they immediately step in whenever the US falters with its traditional trade partners (the Paris Agreement, for example).

I don't believe China is in a strong enough economic position to really wrestle control from the US.  In that sense, I really don't mind the US being more forceful with China.  China's IP rules are ####ed, and the US should defend its interests.

I'm not sure tariffs are nuanced enough to really work, though.  It seems an overly simplistic "solution" for an extremely complex problem.  I really don't see China backing down anytime soon.

Edited by Steve Tasker

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11 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

1,000 Jobs from one company could be leaving Colorado due to Tariffs. I guess Colorado didn't vote for him so he won't care, but they'll be defending that Senate seat in 2020....

#MAGA

but coal....

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