SHIZNITTTT
Footballguy
Taking money from every taxpayer and giving it to his base who were harmed by the tariffs. Congrats farmers greatness apparently means you're on welfare.
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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter timschochet
- Start date
China is not giving up. Trump won't because he's insane. I don't even think a resolution now is anything but a chance to sell and get out. The Elliott Wave guys are predicting 2200-2000 before the next wave up towards 3500. We are teetering at the 200 day MA. Once below 2775, the real selling probably takes hold. How long before the 'gotta retest the lows' talk. If we go back down to 2350, we will most likely go below it. Then they will refer to that last rally as the mother of all bear market rallies. Russell 2K is 15% below high already.
Also the talking heads pushed 'sell in May & go away' big for the past few years and it was a mistake. They pushed it again this year and it appears to be the correct move. I think we are one bad economic report from a bigly sell off.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Me too. It would hurt me financially, mostly on paper, but without the "economy" to hang his hat on Trump would be as good as gone.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
You have really changed your tune on Trump. My sincerest kudos for seeing him for what he is. I seriously can't express how happy it makes me to see even just one person on this board see through the facade.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
As much as I disagree with Trump on this issue, I don't agree with you here. So far, Trump has been pretty cautious- he talks a very tough game on this subject, but he is careful to avoid actually punishing American consumers to any significant extent. The sole reason the Dow hasn't already crashed is because investors believe Trump will never actually go that far- he'll make a face saving deal first. I think that they're right.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Oh, I don't disagree with any of that. If you look back in this thread I'm pretty sure I screamed "GET OUT" around October. 15-20% drop is coming, we're just waiting to see when.
[scooter]
Footballguy
Trump has not been careful at all. His tariffs have already cost consumers billions, and gas prices are up 20% since he took office.
The Dow is down 1500 points since the first tariffs were implemented. You can argue that "the Dow" has no impact on the average American consumer, but we don't live in the 1980s anymore. Millions of average Americans have their net wealth tied to the market -- either directly, or through employer pensions.
If you want to argue that these costs are relatively minor and that they don't "punish" Americans, fine. Just don't say that Trump is being careful about what he's doing. Not with a straight face, at least.
Not really. The 2nd drop and recovery is all in this calendar year. By election day we will be at all time highs again. Of course if we are not, he's in bigly trouble.
Yeah, he's insane but good clean fun. He makes me laugh. He gets my vote in 2020 because the D's just won't come to the center. Now, give someone like Tim Ryan the nomination and I can flip.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Oh. Nevermind.lod001 said:
The Commish
Footballguy
Wait...back up a second. I was following along nicely until this. Your position is "since the Dems won't come complete to center (I'd argue that you don't get much more center than Joe Biden) you're going with extreme fringe right?lod001 said:
<--------B--X----------T->
Where B = Biden, X=center and T=Trump....that's what we're looking at here
According to some, Hillary was right of Center (on many issues) and that did not really help her...Wait...back up a second. I was following along nicely until this. Your position is "since the Dems won't come complete to center (I'd argue that you don't get much more center than Joe Biden) you're going with extreme fringe right?
<--------B--X----------T->
Where B = Biden, X=center and T=Trump....that's what we're looking at here
Henry Ford
Footballguy
You’re anticipating a 20% drop within six months and then a 25%+ rise within 11 months after that?lod001 said:
That’s.... ambitious.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I'm sick of winning now.
BTW, Fox had an economist on when the news of the new tariffs on Mexico broke. He view was it would be illegal because the US and Mexico are both members of the same trade organization (sorry, the initials escape me). Plus alienating Mexico would be counter-productive to our trade war with China. We NEED allies!
The Z Machine
Footballguy
My company is putting in plans on how to mitigate List 4, as well as Chinese made components that go into finished goods made in Mexico for the US market. Think about that... The USA will be putting taxes on the portions of the finished goods that originate in China.
I don't know if that's even legal under WTO or NAFTA, but it seems my company it's planning for it.
I don't know if that's even legal under WTO or NAFTA, but it seems my company it's planning for it.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
It's just so stupid. And I'm guessing this is a violation of Nafta (including v. 2.0).
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Biden would be entertaining. You really think that's who the Ds are gonna go with? He's really tainted. I'd be fine if he won but I gotta go with Mr Entertainment, D. Trump.Wait...back up a second. I was following along nicely until this. Your position is "since the Dems won't come complete to center (I'd argue that you don't get much more center than Joe Biden) you're going with extreme fringe right?
<--------B--X----------T->
Where B = Biden, X=center and T=Trump....that's what we're looking at here
[scooter]
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
5% tariff on all products from Mexico- then 10%, 15%...madness. Earlier today I wrote that Trump isn’t insane. Not so sure at this point.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Something to keep in mind, at least from an automotive perspective, is that the cost of the goods on new vehicles coming in now were negotiated years ago. OEMs are reluctant to accept any price increases, so right now you have suppliers cutting investment or cutting heads to keep their numberstimschochet said:
as new programs get negotiated they’ll start factoring the tariffs into the cost (because even with the tariffs it’s still cheaper to build and procure a lot of things in China) or if they do switch stateside that inflated cost will be reflected
so you might not see it on this years model, but as new models start rolling out is when the impact will really be felt
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
The stock market isn't the economy. However Trump and his stupid tariffs are the biggest reason for problems in the economy and the faltering indexes.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
timschochet
Footballguy
Well as soon as they stop supporting Trump and his policies, the new president can do the hard work of building long-term economy mic policies.
But as long as people continue to cheer on Trump, the economy will suffer long-term damage.
[scooter]
Footballguy
The economy is slowing down, it's a natural cycle, but Trump may be accelerating the process. He's increasing the odds of a 2020 Q2 or Q3 recession. Most democrats with good jobs and a house don't want a recession.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Exactly. My point is that too many Trump supporters denounce everything he does but still support him because of the "economy". If the Dow drops to where it was when he took office perhaps we can get the incompetent spoiled brat psycho out of the WH.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Amused to Death
Footballguy
yak651
Footballguy
Pretty sure he doesn't want the economy to tank, just wants everyone to wake up to the guy that is doing his best to make it happen
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Some people, not me mind you, but some people are saying this statement is as stupid as the tariffs.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
He had 3.1% GDP growth in the first quarter and is going to be lucky to get to 1% this one these tariffs.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Your boy Trump is the one with his foot on the gas. Maybe you could write a letter or something.
Trump kills the soybean market with trade tariffs on China. Now we can impose tariffs on Mexico so our number one importer of corn can retaliate with tariffs on corn. Corn market is currently down on the overnight trade.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Let’s just assume the tariff move could improve trade deals going forward while hurting us short term. Shouldn’t the President be capable of articulating that and asking for our sacrifice? He makes little attempt and is flat out bad at trying to bring people together for a purpose. He wants us to sacrifice to fight a war but he doesn’t ever sell us on that on that despite the claim of being a great salesman.
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The Commish
Footballguy
I have no idea who's going to win. But it's pretty transparent that your heart is set on Trump...especially after this comment. If you're concerned about "tainted" and still vote for Trump it's not about being "tainted" at all.
The Commish
Footballguy
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The Commish
Footballguy
Economists were projecting a slowdown, if not actual recession by 2022-24....now they are saying we are ahead of schedule and that was before this move. It would be pretty remarkable to go from "no recession on the horizon" to "we're in a recession" in a four year period.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
There it is, the core of what I have been saying for a while. A lot of the support for Trump is based around the fact he is entertaining. We as Americans hate boredom and now we even want our governance to be entertaining. And that isn't a GOP or Democrat statement- it's across the board.
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timschochet
Footballguy
Putting aside all the other ways this move is terrible, consider that if you really want to stop undocumented people from crossing our border, slowing down the Mexican economy will have the exact opposite effect.
This may be the single worst decision Trump has made as President. And that is saying a lot:
This may be the single worst decision Trump has made as President. And that is saying a lot:
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I'm honestly pretty amazed at how bad at presidenting this guy is. If Trump spent his entire day on the golf course and let his staff run things on autopilot, he would be doing an infinitely better job.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
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