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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (2 Viewers)

joffer said:
shader said:
There is so much wrong with this post.  Trump is an extraordinary success in the business world.  Anyone denying that is a delusional conspiracy theorist.  
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I wonder if the folks conned by Bernie Madoff ever thought something similar
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:lmao:  5 bankruptcies including two casinos.  He should be in jail for the Trump University scam.  Couldn't get a car loan US. Extraordinary success. 

 
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bradyfan said:
Pork prices has doubled or tripled in China, depending on location, and it could go higher.

Pork belly now costs more than ribeye steak imported from the US.
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That's because of the disease outbreaks the killed off 1/3 of their swine, correct?  China consumes 2/3 of the worlds pig commodities. The outbreaks even added 50% to Europe's pig cost.

 
Bucky86 said:
Trump considered tariffs on Australia last week...

:mellow:  
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I don't understand why we don't put tariffs on the whole world. Just imagine how much money we would be raking in according to Trump. We wouldn't need to tax Americans anymore tariffs will pay for everything. 

 
timschochet said:
So long as we don’t have inflation the public is not going to react to these tariffs. 
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Just curious.  Do you think inflation for US Consumers is the same as the number reported by the Government?

Biggest Expenses (not in any particular order) are:

  • Housing
  • Healthcare
  • Food
  • Transportation
  • Energy
  • Education
Do you really  think year over year these prices have really risen only approx 2%?

 
bradyfan said:
The Commish said:
Wait...when did this happen?  Smithfield was completely exempt from the tariffs initially.  Did that change?
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I’m pretty sure the US government ended its contract with Smithfield last year.  Link

Comments from the Chinese company on impact of tariffs: Link
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Right, I get all this.  My question was around the tariffs themselves.  Smithfield was exempt from the tariffs making this statement false:

The tariffs are targeted equally at China/Mexico/India and at American companies.
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unless they were thrown back in with everyone else.  The second link sort of suggests that, but I can't find anywhere else that this happened.  They are paying the import tariff imposed by China and the 12% tariff that's been there forever.  I was unaware of them being part of the Trump tariffs...they were explicitly written out initially.

 
siffoin said:
Just curious.  Do you think inflation for US Consumers is the same as the number reported by the Government?

Biggest Expenses (not in any particular order) are:

  • Housing
  • Healthcare
  • Food
  • Transportation
  • Energy
  • Education
Do you really  think year over year these prices have really risen only approx 2%?
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Probably much more. Let me clarify my comment: unless the public actually feels this inflation and relates it to the tariffs, they will be indifferent to the tariffs. 

 
Maybe US companies need to move down the road. Plenty of cheap labor over in the rest of Asia. I almost find it humorous, the greed of US companies. Made in Taiwan became Made in Japan, became made in next cheap labor country.  Who's left? North Korea?

 
lod001 said:
Maybe US companies need to move down the road. Plenty of cheap labor over in the rest of Asia. I almost find it humorous, the greed of US companies. Made in Taiwan became Made in Japan, became made in next cheap labor country.  Who's left? North Korea?
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Is it that surprising that they want to maximize profits?

I mean we have people who brag about Trump because their 401k is good.  The rest of what happens be damned.

 
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lod001 said:
Maybe US companies need to move down the road. Plenty of cheap labor over in the rest of Asia. I almost find it humorous, the greed of US companies. Made in Taiwan became Made in Japan, became made in next cheap labor country.  Who's left? North Korea?
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What is a company suppose to do when it's customers demand the cheapest prices.  It's not just about profits, it's about giving the people what they want.  If you've ever worked in retail you'd know that price is the number one factor for most people.  For some it's quality and for others it's being made in the US but for the rest, it's price.

 
lod001 said:
Maybe US companies need to move down the road. Plenty of cheap labor over in the rest of Asia. I almost find it humorous, the greed of US citizens. Made in Taiwan became Made in Japan, became made in next cheap labor country.  Who's left? North Korea?
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Sadly this is more accurate

 
I haven't checked but I'm sure by now that Trump has moved all of his companies and their manufacturing back in to the U.S, right?

 
Mr. President, have you moved all of your companies operations back on to US soil?

Mr. President, isn't it hypocritical to tell businesses to stay in he US when you aren't willing to do the same?

Mr. President, will you pledge today to move all of your companies operations to the US?

Mr. President, you've started tariffs on China, and said they have been taking advantage of the US for years. Why then are you still making your products in China?

Are these questions not asked every single time? How is that possible?

Maybe they have and I just haven't been paying close enough attention, but I certainly haven't heard any of those sound bytes.

 
Unemployment at low levels. Millions of new jobs waiting to be filled. Where is the labor force coming from to fill these millions of jobs? Millions of new jobs with no one to do them doesn't mean much.

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
A private survey shows China’s manufacturing activity for May was slightly higher than expected

Way to put the pressure on Trump.  

Of course I'm referring to putting pressure on Americans.  What a nincompoop. 
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We are stepping up production with an eye to shipping into the USA before July 15-20 (when the tariffs would likely go into effect).

My average pallet cost is $3,000. I'm paying $9.65 for storage. I can pay for a lot of extra months by avoiding a 10% tariff (which Gold Sachs now says is 60% likely).

 
lod001 said:
Maybe US companies need to move down the road. Plenty of cheap labor over in the rest of Asia. I almost find it humorous, the greed of US companies. Made in Taiwan became Made in Japan, became made in next cheap labor country.  Who's left? North Korea?
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Africa. That's where China has been putting a lot of money for the past years. Just need a stable political climate.

 
Ok it’s not a war war but as a metaphorical war this feels stupid like Germany opening a second front with the USSR while already at war in the West was stupid. It feels that dumb.

 
Gawain said:
Africa. That's where China has been putting a lot of money for the past years. Just need a stable political climate.
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Depends very much of the country and the product. Education level most countries are not up to SE Asia or China standards which might preclude making relatively complicated products.

 
I don't see why we don't just threaten every other country with nuclear annihilation if they don't give us what we want.  "Nice country you got there, be a shame if anything happened to it."  Watch that trade imbalance disappear!

 
Trump dismissed the threat of Republican Senators standing up to him about Mexico, cited his 94% support among Republicans and said “if they try anything they’ll look foolish.” 

This is one area in which I have to say I am fully in agreement with President Trump: he has every reason to be contemptuous of these Republican Senators who every now and then express “deep concern” but in the end never actually defy him. Certainly if they do it this time I’ll change my tune, but until it happens, Trump is correct to basically say “yeah right.” 

 
Farmer Sentiment Collapsing As Financial Conditions Continue to Decline

This is partly trade related: "Finally, producers’ confidence that the trade dispute with China will be resolved quickly is waning and they were also less confident that the trade dispute would ultimately be resolved in a way that favors U.S. agriculture than they were earlier in the year."

Mother Nature is not helping either. My brother just drove from Denver to Jacksonville and saw a lot of flooded farmland. 

 
SoBeDad said:
Farmer Sentiment Collapsing As Financial Conditions Continue to Decline

This is partly trade related: "Finally, producers’ confidence that the trade dispute with China will be resolved quickly is waning and they were also less confident that the trade dispute would ultimately be resolved in a way that favors U.S. agriculture than they were earlier in the year."

Mother Nature is not helping either. My brother just drove from Denver to Jacksonville and saw a lot of flooded farmland. 
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There's more coming.  The Morganza Spillway in Louisiana is set to open because of Mississippi River volume.  There are a lot of farmers in that basin who will lose their entire crops when their land gets flooded.

 
SoBeDad said:
Farmer Sentiment Collapsing As Financial Conditions Continue to Decline

This is partly trade related: "Finally, producers’ confidence that the trade dispute with China will be resolved quickly is waning and they were also less confident that the trade dispute would ultimately be resolved in a way that favors U.S. agriculture than they were earlier in the year."

Mother Nature is not helping either. My brother just drove from Denver to Jacksonville and saw a lot of flooded farmland. 
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Corn planting progress is only at 67% of intended planting. That’s nearly 30 million acres. Window to plant corn and expect a much lower yield is fast approaching. Slowest corn planting progress in US history. While corn prices have risen some the idea of a potential trade war with our #1 corn importer ( Mexico) is creating concern. I have been farming close to 45 years. First time ever that I will have some unplanted acres due to excess rain

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2019/05/planting-troubles-worsen-progress-lowest-on-record-for-corn/

 
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bradyfan said:
The tariffs are targeted equally at China/Mexico/India and at American companies.  Has anyone moved jobs back to the US yet?
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My company has.  I talked about it in this thread earlier.  Lad year at this time I was in China working on transitioning our factory over there.  After tarriffs, we changed our mind.

 
Yesterday McConnell broadly implied that the Mexican delegation coming to Washington this week would reach a “compromise deal” with the White House: meaning there will be no tariffs. Trump seemed to deny this. The Dow Jones apparently believes McConnell. 

If there is a “compromise deal” it will be meaningless; the Mexican government can have very little effect on the number of migrants as the source of that lies elsewhere. But Trump mY accept it and call this a victory. Or maybe he will apply the tariffs anyhow- who knows? One thing I simply do not believe is that the Republican Senators are going to revolt. I’d love to see it happen but come on. 

 
lazyike said:
Corn planting progress is only at 67% of intended planting. That’s nearly 30 million acres. Window to plant corn and expect a much lower yield is fast approaching. Slowest corn planting progress in US history. While corn prices have risen some the idea of a potential trade war with our #1 corn importer ( Mexico) is creating concern. I have been farming close to 45 years. First time ever that I will have some unplanted acres due to excess rain

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2019/05/planting-troubles-worsen-progress-lowest-on-record-for-corn/
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I think we are getting pretty close to being done here in Eastern Iowa but I agree, this is the slowest progress I've ever seen.  Corn is usually to our shins at this time of year and now farmers are still trying to plant.  It's nice to see that prices have gone up and hopefully some can finally take advantage of it because they need it.  I don't think we've gone more than 3 days without rain since the end of winter.

 
This story is continually changing. It currently does not look like talks with Mexico are going to be fruitful. McConnell is asking Trump to delay the tariffs a few weeks but that doesn’t seem likely. Republican Senators are threatening to revolt (supposedly) but they don’t have enough votes in the House to overturn a veto. 

I think Trump is going to do this. I don’t think he cares about the effect on the economy because he believes that by attacking immigration he can win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That’s his calculation. 

 
timschochet said:
This story is continually changing. It currently does not look like talks with Mexico are going to be fruitful. McConnell is asking Trump to delay the tariffs a few weeks but that doesn’t seem likely. Republican Senators are threatening to revolt (supposedly) but they don’t have enough votes in the House to overturn a veto. 

I think Trump is going to do this. I don’t think he cares about the effect on the economy because he believes that by attacking immigration he can win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That’s his calculation. 
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its the economy, stupid.

 
No agreement. In Mexico public opinion is very strong; they do not want Lopez Obrador to roll over for whatever Trump demands. 

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I think we are getting pretty close to being done here in Eastern Iowa but I agree, this is the slowest progress I've ever seen.  Corn is usually to our shins at this time of year and now farmers are still trying to plant.  It's nice to see that prices have gone up and hopefully some can finally take advantage of it because they need it.  I don't think we've gone more than 3 days without rain since the end of winter.
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Same here in NE Wisconsin.  Many fields still haven't been touched, some farmers with higher and sandier ground have corn that is just popping up.

 
timschochet said:
Not sure what your point is here. Lopez Obrador has a 72% approval rating. Part of that, per reporting, is Mexicans rallying around the flag: for him and against Trump. 
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Point is, was, and always will be..polls don't mean anything at all.  They are entirely worthless.  You quote them constantly, which I find amusing.

 
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