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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (2 Viewers)

Sinn Fein said:
Its really weird. 

Because there are a lot of smart people here, and in the Administration.  I mean, some of the smartest people ever.  And yet, nobody predicted that it was a bad idea to give tax breaks to corporations to use - not on Plant & Equipment, and not on R&D - but instead use that money to prop up stock prices via stock re-purchases.  Its almost like people were forgetting what happens when you artificially inflate asset prices - and are now shocked to see a downturn in manufacturing.

I am completely shuked.  :shrug:
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This guy corporates 

 
Thanks Trump!  You're the most perfectest president, maybe ever.

-US Farmers and Manufacturers

Citing trade uncertainties and a slumping ag economy, Deere & Co. said Tuesday it will layoff about 160 workers at production facilities in the Quad Cities.

 
President Trump did take time off attacking the whistleblower yesterday to address this. According to him it has nothing whatsoever to do with the trade war which is going great! It’s the fault of the Fed. 

 
Peter Navarro on CNBC yesterday: “manufacturing is as strong as ever.” 

Enough is enough. We’ve lost the trade war. Trump needs to surrender and let’s get back to business, salvage what we can. 

 
The Z Machine said:
I think I'll be fine, honestly.  But I have a feeling that they will be closing a USA manufacturing plant.  And the reason is almost entirely due to tariffs on incoming Chinese made components.
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I'm still flabbergasted by the idea to tariff components but not finished goods.

Headphones (8518.30) don't have a tariff until 12/15, but charging cables, microphone cables, bluetooth chips and all other components have a 25% at the moment.

 
Gawain said:
I'm still flabbergasted by the idea to tariff components but not finished goods.

Headphones (8518.30) don't have a tariff until 12/15, but charging cables, microphone cables, bluetooth chips and all other components have a 25% at the moment.
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Multiple people in my office let go today, including design engineers, sourcing engineers, and product specialists with 20+ years experience.  I think I escaped the cut...  Might have to wait and see till the end of the day.

 
The Z Machine said:
Multiple people in my office let go today, including design engineers, sourcing engineers, and product specialists with 20+ years experience.  I think I escaped the cut...  Might have to wait and see till the end of the day.
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Ugh. The worst part is when these jobs come back, they won't be in the states.

 
Gawain said:
Ugh. The worst part is when these jobs come back, they won't be in the states.
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Nope.  BTW, to be clear, these are salaried employees that do not directly work in manufacturing.  Just collateral damage from the trade war reducing profit margins, which needed to be recouped through headcount reduction.

 
The Z Machine said:
Nope.  BTW, to be clear, these are salaried employees that do not directly work in manufacturing.  Just collateral damage from the trade war reducing profit margins, which needed to be recouped through headcount reduction.
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Did they give them the option to work in manufacturing? I’m afraid same thing might happen to me. 

 
The Z Machine said:
Multiple people in my office let go today, including design engineers, sourcing engineers, and product specialists with 20+ years experience.  I think I escaped the cut...  Might have to wait and see till the end of the day.
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we have an opening for a design engineer.  Feel free to send resume's my way.

 
Per Bloomberg:

The partial deal calls for China to agree to some agricultural concessions and for the U.S. to offer some relief on tariffs, added the report, which also described the pact as tentative. It was not expected to address issues such as intellectual-property theft and forced technology transfer.

So, is this a mini deal so that Trump can declare victory? Or is there a real agreement here?

 
Deal is to suspend the Oct 15 tariff increase. Not expected to address the fundamental reasons for the trade war such as subsidies, IP theft, or forced tech transfer.

 
timschochet said:
Per Bloomberg:

The partial deal calls for China to agree to some agricultural concessions and for the U.S. to offer some relief on tariffs, added the report, which also described the pact as tentative. It was not expected to address issues such as intellectual-property theft and forced technology transfer.

So, is this a mini deal so that Trump can declare victory? Or is there a real agreement here?
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So we get upset about lack of access, tech transfer, currency manipulation, etc and impose tarriffs.  China retaliates with tarriffs on ag products. 

This deal rolls back a bit of both...did China just win here?

 
timschochet said:
Per Bloomberg:

The partial deal calls for China to agree to some agricultural concessions and for the U.S. to offer some relief on tariffs, added the report, which also described the pact as tentative. It was not expected to address issues such as intellectual-property theft and forced technology transfer.

So, is this a mini deal so that Trump can declare victory? Or is there a real agreement here?
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That's the opposite of what CNBC is reporting:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/11/trump-says-us-has-come-to-a-substantial-phase-one-deal-with-china.html

The current incarnation of the deal will address intellectual property and financial services concerns, along with purchases of about $40 to $50 billion worth of agricultural products by China.
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Probably need to wait before spinning this one way or the other.

ETA: Or, you're severely misinformed. From Bloomberg

As part of the deal, China would significantly step up purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities, agree to certain intellectual-property measures and concessions related to financial services and currency, Trump said Friday at the White House. In exchange, the U.S. will delay a tariff increase due next week as the deal is finalized, though new levies scheduled for December haven’t yet been called off.
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caustic said:
Deal is to suspend the Oct 15 tariff increase. Not expected to address the fundamental reasons for the trade war such as subsidies, IP theft, or forced tech transfer.
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More or less a truce, not much more.

 
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moleculo said:
So we get upset about lack of access, tech transfer, currency manipulation, etc and impose tarriffs.  China retaliates with tarriffs on ag products. 

This deal rolls back a bit of both...did China just win here?
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The qualifiers for "success" as defined by this administration was a closing of the trade deficit, combatting IP theft and combating unfair trade practices.

The trade deficit has gotten larger and this deal doesn't seem to address either of the other two.  Maybe if you squint and turn your head a little bit, he's "addressing unfair trade practices" but, at best, that is simply getting us back to where we were at the beginning of this.

I think we'll have to wait for the trump guy talking points.  I'm sure they'll be in shortly.  :popcorn:  

 
Weebs210 said:
You guys can never just give him any credit eh
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meh....I've given him credit when due....you can see the silver linings thread.  In this instance what is better now than before?  What of the issues he raised in defining success (IP, trade deficit, unfair practices) has been addressed in any meaningful way?  I haven't seen any details, but you must have so spill it....inquiring minds want to know.  :oldunsure:  

 
The Commish said:
meh....I've given him credit when due....you can see the silver linings thread.  In this instance what is better now than before?  What of the issues he raised in defining success (IP, trade deficit, unfair practices) has been addressed in any meaningful way?  I haven't seen any details, but you must have so spill it....inquiring minds want to know.  :oldunsure:  
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Both CNBC and Bloomberg have IP protection as part of this first deal.

Here's Reuters take:
 

The United States and China agreed on Friday to the first phase of a trade deal covering agricultural purchases, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections, and averting a threatened tariff hike, but President Donald Trump said more needed to be negotiated.
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I think this won't get done, but it's being reported that IP and currency controls are in the first phase.

 
Gawain said:
The Commish said:
meh....I've given him credit when due....you can see the silver linings thread.  In this instance what is better now than before?  What of the issues he raised in defining success (IP, trade deficit, unfair practices) has been addressed in any meaningful way?  I haven't seen any details, but you must have so spill it....inquiring minds want to know.  :oldunsure:  
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Both CNBC and Bloomberg have IP protection as part of this first deal.

Here's Reuters take:
 

The United States and China agreed on Friday to the first phase of a trade deal covering agricultural purchases, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections, and averting a threatened tariff hike, but President Donald Trump said more needed to be negotiated.
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I think this won't get done, but it's being reported that IP and currency controls are in the first phase.
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Thanks....I'm good waiting to see the details.  I certainly don't trust anything out of this admin's corner without validation by several sources.

 
Sheriff Bart said:
The house burned down but give me props for putting the fire out.

You carelessly started the fire.

YOU JUST WON'T GIVE ME CREDIT FOR ANYTHING WILL YOU!
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He put the fire out in the carpet while the roof and structure is still in fire.  At this point he hasn't even done that...just announced that he did it.

 
Today, Sec. Mnuchin said the market is always right.  After details of the trade agreement made it to Wall Street the markets dropped fast.

 
I get the sneaking suspicion that Trump just got taken to the proverbial cleaners, and I also wouldn't be shocked to hear he asked for a favor from them as part of the deal.

 
timschochet said:
If this turns out to be the real deal, he won't need any credit from us.
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It will be particularly interesting knowing this deal comes just a few days after learning that a Trump minion has received information from China on Biden's son.  :lol:

NOTE:  I have no reason, today, to believe they are related, but I couldn't help myself.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Do you expect this to help you out or will we not be able to see the affects on farmers until next year?
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My understanding is that tariffs are still set to go in place in December and I don’t know how many times the President has said China agrees to buy more agricultural products. On one occasion they denied they agreed on that, another they responded by buying more from S. America. I have no faith in any of the garbage that comes out of this pathological liars mouth. However, I have always suspected one way or another he wasn’t going to let this trade war carry into next years election and would settle for almost no gain for the US at the same time claiming it was the greatest deal ever reached in American history. He is going to need that rural vote.

 
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