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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (3 Viewers)

I wonder how much China and others really want Trump to stay in office, and how that affects their deal making over the next several months. Trump is definitely a dude who would take a win now, destroy us later, approach if he thinks it will help with re-election. And everyone knows this

 
Whatever deal it is we will hear that it is the greatest deal in the history of deals and that no one else could have ever possibly done this especially Obama.

 
Color me skeptical. I hope he’s truly making progress. I question the timing, when the administration badly needs a win, that the deal being made could be from a position of weakness in an attempt to change the news cycle. I don’t doubt that this administration would sell out to simply buy a week of time. 
I also won’t rejoice until something actually happens. Its like the new nafta agreement he touts as an accomplishment- it hasn’t actually been signed into law as far as I know. He also likes to dangle stuff- “big announcement in a couple days” or “I can’t talk about it now but you’ll know soon” kind of stuff. So until the farmers I know aren’t complaining about soybeans costing more to plant than they can sell it for I’ll take this with a grain of salt. 

 
The knee jerk reaction, for me, is to sell AAPL after yesterday and wait for whatever drop that might be coming. Then, the investor inside of me says, ride the wave. Not sure which way to go. So volatile, so weird.

 
The General said:
Whatever deal it is we will hear that it is the greatest deal in the history of deals and that no one else could have ever possibly done this especially Obama.
Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

·

2h

The deal I just made with China is, by far, the greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country. In fact, there is a question as to whether or not this much product can be produced? Our farmers will figure it out. Thank you China!

 
Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

·

2h

The deal I just made with China is, by far, the greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country. In fact, there is a question as to whether or not this much product can be produced? Our farmers will figure it out. Thank you China!
The last guy to use the phrase “Great Patriot Farmers” was Josef Stalin, just before his Five Year Plan which ended up murdering most of them...

 
The last guy to use the phrase “Great Patriot Farmers” was Josef Stalin, just before his Five Year Plan which ended up murdering most of them...
The good news(relatively speaking) is that Trump might not get a year, let alone 5. Maybe the next president can fix some of this mess.

 
The Chinese aren’t even calling this “greatest and biggest deal ever” a deal. They are calling it a “temporary halt” to tariffs, like a ceasefire, lol. 

 
The Chinese aren’t even calling this “greatest and biggest deal ever” a deal. They are calling it a “temporary halt” to tariffs, like a ceasefire, lol. 
Like every other agreement Trump has claimed only it wasn't really any agreement?  At least he didn’t try the fake “Ive got the agreement right here” holding up some random paper.

 
It doesn’t really matter if they agreed to that. The only way we’re selling them $50 bn a year in agricultural products is if we double the price of soybeans. 

 
Stupid question but what was the old trade agreement with China before Trump?
There really wasn't one that I know of....it was generally "free trade" for the most part with some of the standard tariffs.  Nothing special about the relationship.  People didn't like the terms China required for access to their market.  That's a decision left to the business person...don't like it?  Don't go to that market.  Then there were IP theft issues which definitely need to be addressed.  That's flat out wrong.

 
It doesn’t really matter if they agreed to that. The only way we’re selling them $50 bn a year in agricultural products is if we double the price of soybeans. 
Trump even said in his tweet the farmers might not be able to produce enough product to cover 40 to 50 billion. 

 
Stupid question but what was the old trade agreement with China before Trump?
Good question. The Commish answered it as best as I know about it. Other answers you received had nothing to do with anything involving trade. I'd bet the snarky answers you got, they couldn't even name what the previous deal had at all. I'd also bet those snarky commenters couldn't point to China correctly on a map of China. So, there's that.

 
There really wasn't one that I know of....it was generally "free trade" for the most part with some of the standard tariffs.  Nothing special about the relationship.  People didn't like the terms China required for access to their market.  That's a decision left to the business person...don't like it?  Don't go to that market.  Then there were IP theft issues which definitely need to be addressed.  That's flat out wrong.
I think the issue us that if we had just mirrored China's approach to the USA, the trade war would have been even worse.
It's stolen from Tom Clancy's ideas towards Japan in the 80s, but I would have phrased the trade issues as reciprocity, not as punitive. China requires native ownership...now the States do as well, that type of thing.

 
I think the issue us that if we had just mirrored China's approach to the USA, the trade war would have been even worse.
It's stolen from Tom Clancy's ideas towards Japan in the 80s, but I would have phrased the trade issues as reciprocity, not as punitive. China requires native ownership...now the States do as well, that type of thing.
The US couldn't do what China is doing unless our laws were changed

 
:lol:

Jenny Leonard @jendeben · 1h

Scoop from my colleagues in Beijing: China isn’t ready to sign what Trump calls the “phase one” deal without more talks later this month. Beijing also wants commitments prior to signing that the next round of U.S. tariffs, scheduled for Dec. 15, is off.

 
:lol:

Jenny Leonard @jendeben · 1h

Scoop from my colleagues in Beijing: China isn’t ready to sign what Trump calls the “phase one” deal without more talks later this month. Beijing also wants commitments prior to signing that the next round of U.S. tariffs, scheduled for Dec. 15, is off.
It’s so weird that they wouldn’t agree that the talks have concluded. No one would have seen that coming from the fact that it isn’t even in writing yet. 

 
So Trump starts a round of tariffs and China retaliates and now Trump can't even get an agreement to stop that? Art of the Deal!

 
Slapdash said:
How many times have we seen this crap from Trump?  And people fall for it every time.  :lmao:  
Democratic congresswoman Abby Finkenauer from Iowa said the agreement should not be interpreted as a clear win for US farmers. “The President started this fire, and he should not be taking a victory lap over putting only part of that fire out. The markets we took decades to build have been lost to countries like Brazil,” she said in a statement. (During the trade war, with tariffs between the US and China, Chinese buyers have turned to Brazil for many agricultural products like soybeans.)

The previous high for Chinese purchasing of agricultural  commodities was 25 billion in 2014. You don’t make agreements with other countries like Brazil for 18 months during a trade war with the US, build infrastructure in S. America and then say to them “thanks for supplying us with your soybeans but we are now going to go back to the US and buy double the amount of Ag commodities than we ever have before. Ain’t happening folks, get real!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Democratic congresswoman Abby Finkenauer from Iowa said the agreement should not be interpreted as a clear win for US farmers. “The President started this fire, and he should not be taking a victory lap over putting only part of that fire out. The markets we took decades to build have been lost to countries like Brazil,” she said in a statement. (During the trade war, with tariffs between the US and China, Chinese buyers have turned to Brazil for many agricultural products like soybeans.)

The previous high for Chinese purchasing of agricultural  commodities was 25 billion in 2014. You don’t make agreements with other countries like Brazil for 18 months during a trade war with the US, build infrastructure in S. America and then say to them “thanks for supplying us with your soybeans but we are now going to go back to the US and buy double the amount of Ag commodities than we ever have before. Ain’t happening folks, get real!
China very well could make this kind of deal though.  See this thread from one of the better trade experts I read:  https://twitter.com/Brad_Setser/status/1182763704368205824 

 
China purchased about 9 billion last year. That is a lot of value added commodities away from 50 billion. I don’t buy it. 
I think the last comment sums it up.

Kris Shocka 

@KrisShocka

·

Oct 11Replying to

@Brad_Setser

and

@sdonnan

What kind of moron believes anything Trump says. Idiot.

 
China purchased about 9 billion last year. That is a lot of value added commodities away from 50 billion. I don’t buy it. 
I don't buy it will happen either, but it could given how China runs their country.   They can also very easily close off other markets when they want. 

 

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