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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (2 Viewers)

It’s on with China starting tomorrow! 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1GX20V

No worries though; I’m sure the Chinese will surrender very quickly. They won’t retaliate. 
Not to worry, Larry Kudlow is on top of things:

"A thought that I have is the United States could lead a coalition of large trading partners and allies against China, or to let China know that they’re breaking the rules left and right… That’s the way I’d like to see. You call it a sort of a trade coalition of the willing." - Kudlow
So far, so good.

There is just one problem:

Yet Kudlow’s “trade coalition of the willing” is exactly the plan that Trump had abolished at the start of his presidency. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, was a US-led trade agreement that includes 12 countries around the Pacific Rim, who together account for about 40% of the world’s GDP, but excludes China. Just three days after his inauguration, Trump, who had argued that the TPP could harm American manufacturing, pulled the US out of the trade deal, just as he promised on the campaign trail.

The TPP requires members to commit to heightened standards in areas like labor law, environmental protection, and intellectual property (IP), in addition to lowering tariffs. Former US president Barack Obama framed the TPP, one of his signature foreign-policy initiatives, as an effort to set free-trade standards in Asia ahead of China. If China were to join the partnership, it would have to crack down on all the things Trump has complained about, from dumping to stealing American IP.
Oh.

 
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US - “We’re hitting you with $60 billion in tariffs”

China - “Let me pull that out of my couch cushions”

Americans - “Why am I payin more for my iPad and Nike’s?”

 
US - “We’re hitting you with $60 billion in tariffs”

China - “Let me pull that out of my couch cushions”

Americans - “Why am I payin more for my iPad and Nike’s?”
While amusing, the bolded isn't exactly true. China has lots of problems. They have a really serious debt problem, for one thing. That doesn't make them unique, since it is nearly universal, but they are in the soup too.

 
While amusing, the bolded isn't exactly true. China has lots of problems. They have a really serious debt problem, for one thing. That doesn't make them unique, since it is nearly universal, but they are in the soup too.
Maybe they can sell some of the 3 trillion dollars worth of US treasury bonds they have accumulated to help.

 
RedmondLonghorn said:
Not to worry, Larry Kudlow is on top of things:

"A thought that I have is the United States could lead a coalition of large trading partners and allies against China, or to let China know that they’re breaking the rules left and right… That’s the way I’d like to see. You call it a sort of a trade coalition of the willing." - Kudlow
So far, so good.

There is just one problem:

Yet Kudlow’s “trade coalition of the willing” is exactly the plan that Trump had abolished at the start of his presidency. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, was a US-led trade agreement that includes 12 countries around the Pacific Rim, who together account for about 40% of the world’s GDP, but excludes China. Just three days after his inauguration, Trump, who had argued that the TPP could harm American manufacturing, pulled the US out of the trade deal, just as he promised on the campaign trail.

The TPP requires members to commit to heightened standards in areas like labor law, environmental protection, and intellectual property (IP), in addition to lowering tariffs. Former US president Barack Obama framed the TPP, one of his signature foreign-policy initiatives, as an effort to set free-trade standards in Asia ahead of China. If China were to join the partnership, it would have to crack down on all the things Trump has complained about, from dumping to stealing American IP.
Oh.
Can't help but laugh at this bafoon. 

Donnie Two Scoops:  "Oh yeah, me and my buddies will take our ball and go home".

"Buddies":  :oldunsure:  "Um...you talking about us?  You told us you don't want to play with us anymore"

 
Indications are China will retaliate against Boeing, Apple, and California almond growers (our leading crop.): 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/03/22/trumps-big-tariff-blow-on-china-may-cause-a-backlash-against-boeing.html

Boeing is responsible for 24% of the Dow’s increase since 2016. China is pledged to purchase a trillion dollars of aircraft- but they could easily switch over to Airbus in retaliation. 

Nope- nothing to see here folks. 
Aerospace exports are the biggest export for the State of Washington by a factor of over 10x ($42 bln vs. the next largest at $3.7 bln). It is also pretty big for South Carolina. 

 
On the news they’re asking, “Will China start a trade war as a result of these tariffs?”

Trump started the trade war, just now. China can’t start a trade war; they’ve already been fired upon. All they can do is either capitulate or  respond in kind. 

Now word comes that in addition to almonds and Boeing, they may decide to punish soybean imports. 

 
Lutherman2112 said:

Every time I see this thread I can't help but think of this song. Instead of a trade war, I hear gay bar.
I picture Eric Cartman running down the hallway yelling "TRADE WARRRRR!!!"

 
On the news they’re asking, “Will China start a trade war as a result of these tariffs?”

Trump started the trade war, just now. China can’t start a trade war; they’ve already been fired upon. All they can do is either capitulate or  respond in kind. 

Now word comes that in addition to almonds and Boeing, they may decide to punish soybean imports. 
Overheard in Germany in 1939:

On the news they're asking, "Will Britain start a war as a result of these land expansion polices?"

 
Indications are China will retaliate against Boeing, Apple, and California almond growers (our leading crop.): 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/03/22/trumps-big-tariff-blow-on-china-may-cause-a-backlash-against-boeing.html

Boeing is responsible for 24% of the Dow’s increase since 2016. China is pledged to purchase a trillion dollars of aircraft- but they could easily switch over to Airbus in retaliation. 

Nope- nothing to see here folks. 
Make Airbus Great Again. Actually, China's endgame is to break the Boeing/Airbus dominance with Comac, their airline maker.

 
I think sometimes it's easy to look at politics as a sort of everlasting football game: you root for your "team" as it moves up and down the field, you cheer and groan, but it doesn't really affect you; you're just a spectator. The Russian scandal is like this.

Every once in a while though, something happens that reminds us that it's all very real, and that what Trump does really can have a direct effect on how you and I live. This is one of those times. There was no urgent reason for these tariffs, and they're going to punish much of America.

 
I think sometimes it's easy to look at politics as a sort of everlasting football game: you root for your "team" as it moves up and down the field, you cheer and groan, but it doesn't really affect you; you're just a spectator. The Russian scandal is like this.
Wrong-o.

 
I used the word "like", Gr00vus. I realize that it actually affects me as well, but you don't see it affect you on a daily basis so it's easier to be detached.
Russians cracking our infrastructure doesn't affect me on a daily basis? Beyond that, if the Russians actually did meddle into our election to the extent that Trump isn't a legitimate holder of office, that definitely effects me on a daily basis.

i know what you're getting at, find a better example. How about immigration, nope, shipping out all the cheap labor will cause prices of goods to go up. Lets think of another one....taxes, nope...maybe the whole U.S. embassy in Israel thing, oh wait, I'm Jewish...uhhh lets see, ####### with the football players protesting, i think that's a winner for me since I barely watch the NFL anymore and always skip the national anthem. Winner!

 
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Russians cracking our infrastructure doesn't affect me on a daily basis? Beyond that, if the Russians actually did meddle into our election to the extent that Trump isn't a legitimate holder of office, that definitely effects me on a daily basis.

i know what you're getting at, find a better example. How about immigration, nope, shipping out all the cheap labor will cause prices of goods to go up. Lets think of another one....taxes, nope...maybe the whole U.S. embassy in Israel thing, oh wait, I'm Jewish...uhhh lets see, ####### with the football players protesting, i think that's a winner for me since I barely watch the NFL anymore and always skip the national anthem. Winner!
:lol:

 
So you are going to use a one day forecast to judge the effectiveness of this tariff...
Oh no. I think it will have a far worse effect than just a 700 point drop in the Dow. This is just the start. It's going to be very very bad. I hope I'm wrong, obviously.

 
Trump trying to turn Kansas blue(not Jayhawk blue) with trade war that will negatively impact agricultural. The art of negotiation! 

 
Large views always triumph over small ideas. Broad economic principles always in the end defeat the sharp devices of expediency; science is better than sleight of hand; justice outwits intrigues; free imports can contend with hostile tariffs; honesty is, in fact, the policy that pays the best.

-Winston Churchill, "Why I Am a Free Trader".

 
Yeah, that's not how something being a "failure" works.
I understand how economics work and am capable of learning from history. I realize that sounds like wizardry to a Trump supporter, but it is really not that hard.

You can wait and watch the jobs destroyed and economic damage and be surprised though. You'd better start working on your excuses for why it isn't Trump's fault right now though.

 
I understand how economics work and am capable of learning from history. I realize that sounds like wizardry to a Trump supporter, but it is really not that hard.

You can wait and watch the jobs destroyed and economic damage and be surprised though. You'd better start working on your excuses for why it isn't Trump's fault right now though.
Only if you start working on your apology for when it is a success.

 
When you've been conditioned to believe that dijon mustard is a sign of failure, then it's going to take a while to recognize the economic impact of tariffs.

 
Short term fall for a much better future economic situation? Sure.
oof...I think you better sign up for an economics lesson with @RedmondLonghorn

We screwed the pooch when we abandoned TPP - and let China step into the void - but without all of the restrictions TPP would have required.  We are about to screw the kitty when we abandon our closest trading partners - Mexico and Canada.  We have alienated Europe.  Australia hates us.  Not sure who we have left to trade with.  Maybe Putin will throw us a bone.

 
oof...I think you better sign up for an economics lesson with @RedmondLonghorn

We screwed the pooch when we abandoned TPP - and let China step into the void - but without all of the restrictions TPP would have required.  We are about to screw the kitty when we abandon our closest trading partners - Mexico and Canada.  We have alienated Europe.  Australia hates us.  Not sure who we have left to trade with.  Maybe Putin will throw us a bone.
And if China negotiates in a timely matter you will say what?

 

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