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timschochet

TRADE WAR: Dow drops all week, rebounds a little on Friday

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13 minutes ago, The Duff Man said:

Maybe Trump misheard and thought he was starting a thumb war.....cause who doesn't like a good thumb war. 

A guy with tiny orange hands?

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So this is supported by people that should be Democrats, but left the D party on cultural grounds.  Are they right here?

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Trump is consistent. In 1987, he said the USA is stupid on trade and warned about foreigners buying up valuable real estate. His target back then was Japan. 

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2 hours ago, Doctor Detroit said:
2 hours ago, timschochet said:

"We lose 800 billion a year on trade."

Evidence that Trump doesn't understand what a trade deficit is.

Well, obviously. 

Just send them a bill for the difference.  Wa-la

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Just thinking this through...

We (almost) all seem to understand the potential lasting damage this tariff and trade war route could cause.  In addition, especially with retaliatory measures from our trading partners, many of which are major allies, will hurt those nations as well, not to mention put a dent into the entire circle of trading partners / allies re: U.S., Europe, UK, Japan etc. 

Who doesn't seem to get mentioned? Because they wouldn't be nearly as affected, and perhaps benefit from the worldwide economic chaos more than anyone else?

 

 

Perhaps this wasn't such a from left field crazy Donnie idea after all... because such a calculated means to extract chaos and pain in the western economic world would seem to most benefit one country.  Hmm.

Edited by Koya

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13 minutes ago, Koya said:

Just thinking this through...

We (almost) all seem to understand the potential lasting damage this tariff and trade war route could cause.  In addition, especially with retaliatory measures from our trading partners, many of which are major allies, will hurt those nations as well, not to mention put a dent into the entire circle of trading partners / allies re: U.S., Europe, UK, Japan etc. 

Who doesn't seem to get mentioned? Because they wouldn't be nearly as affected, and perhaps benefit from the worldwide economic chaos more than anyone else?

 

 

Perhaps this wasn't such a from left field crazy Donnie idea after all... because such a calculated means to extract chaos and pain in the western economic world would seem to most benefit one country.  Hmm.

Whenever there are losers, there are also winners. 

At the beginning there will be a temporary spike in demand for dollars internationally, as international trade still needs growth in available dollars, and Trump just choked that growth. This spike in demand for dollars will cause asset prices to fall. 

At that point it's anyone's guess as to what will happen, as central banks around the world will take evasive action, including the US Federal Reserve. It could end up going from a trade war into a currency war. 

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Just now, Politician Spock said:

Whenever there are losers, there are also winners. 

At the beginning there will be a temporary spike in demand for dollars internationally, as international trade still needs growth in available dollars, and Trump just choked that growth. This spike in demand for dollars will cause asset prices to fall. 

At that point it's anyone's guess as to what will happen, as central banks around the world will take evasive action, including the US Federal Reserve. It could end up going from a trade war into a currency war. 

Sure seems that Russia would be in a position to do better if the overall tides began to ebb, or just rush out altogether.  I mean, this would be a stroke of genius by Trump's Puppeteer, no?

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Just now, Koya said:

Sure seems that Russia would be in a position to do better if the overall tides began to ebb, or just rush out altogether.  I mean, this would be a stroke of genius by Trump's Puppeteer, no?

The BRICS countries having been leading the charge to replace the US dollar as the world reserve currency for at least a decade now.

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Aftica.

So yes, Russia would love to see Trump do this. 

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

We have never had a major politician, since Joseph McCarthy, who has pushed "fear of the other" as much as President Trump has. I just don't understand how anybody can see this as a positive. I mean, putting aside the economic ramifications, doesn't it make you sick to your stomach? It does for me. I can't stand it.

Lovecraft 2020!

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5 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

The BRICS countries having been leading the charge to replace the US dollar as the world reserve currency for at least a decade now.

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Aftica.

So yes, Russia would love to see Trump do this. 

We are getting so freakin' played.  Ugh.  To think I thought this was just a temper tantrum and the foolish policy of someone that simply doesn't understand the very basics of how economics actually work... but it now seems pretty obvious, THIS is a nice ROI for Putin.

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9 minutes ago, Koya said:

We are getting so freakin' played.  Ugh.  To think I thought this was just a temper tantrum and the foolish policy of someone that simply doesn't understand the very basics of how economics actually work... but it now seems pretty obvious, THIS is a nice ROI for Putin.

Depends on what you see as an ROI.

Most people would assume you mean they would profit. That's not it at all.

With modern money mechanics being what they are on an international level, the United States HAS to consume more from the rest of the world than it produces for the rest of the world. This causes the world to receive more dollars from us than they give back to us. Which is what they need in order for them to have enough dollars to buy and sell to each other as the world economy grows. 

This situation of us having to consume more than we produce is what allows us to have the ridiculously funded military that we do. Because in order for money to make it into the private businesses and eventually into international trade, that money has to first be birthed into existence. This is done by the Federal Reserve printing it (either on paper or digitally) and the US Treasury issuing bonds. The two trade and then the US treasury spends those newly printed dollars. We could spend those new dollars on anything, but congress loves military spending, so that's where it goes. Yes, taxes also go to the Treasury funds, but if taxes alone funded it, we'd never spend what we do on military spending.

So what is Putins ROI?

His return is American won't be able to afford the military we do if the dollar is no longer the worlds reserve currency. 

Edited by Politician Spock
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I am here to learn from our FBG economic guru.

Tim, what has free trade gotten us in the last 50 years?

Edited by bradyfan

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Just now, Politician Spock said:

Depends on what you see as an ROI.

Most people would assume you mean they would profit. That's not it at all.

With modern money mechanics being what they are on an international level, the United State HAS to consume more from the rest of the world than it produces for the rest of the world. This cause the world to receive more dollars from us than they give back to us. Which is what they need in order for them to have enough dollars to buy and sell to each other. 

This situation of us having to consume more than we produce is what allows us to have the ridiculously funded military that we do. Because in order for money to make it into the private businesses and eventually into international trade, that money has to first be birthed into existence. This is done by the Federal Reserve printing it (either on paper or digitally) and the US Treasury issuing bonds. The two trade and then the US treasury spends those newly printed dollars. We could spend those things on anything, but congress loves military spending, so that's where it goes. Yes, taxes also go to the Treasury funds, but if taxes alone funded it, we'd never spend what we do on military spending.

So what is Putins ROI?

His return is American won't be able to afford the military we do if the dollar is no longer the worlds reserve currency. 

I didn't mean ROI in a monetary sense - it's more sowing chaos to a degree, the fact that even if there's a worldwide recession in which Russia gets hit, their standing likely gets hit less than ours (by a long shot), and relatively speaking, that's a "win" for them, a "return" - just as there are no "winners" in war, but it is waged because the lesser loser can be in a position for a longer term win, after that pain is done.

My basic point is Putin wants to weaken our standing in general, while sowing discord. This seems a perfect instrument, unless I'm reading it wrong. 

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1 minute ago, bradyfan said:

I am here to learn from our FBG enconomic guru.

Tim, what has free trade gotten us in the last 50 years?

:mellow: 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

:mellow: 

 

I need some metrics to gain concrete understanding of the pros and cons.

Edited by bradyfan

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7 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

I am here to learn from our FBG economic guru.

Tim, what has free trade gotten us in the last 50 years?

The resources to become the world's sole super power in the world? 

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2 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

The resources to become the world's sole super power in the world? 

What about the EU, Russia, China, India, and Brazil?

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7 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

The resources to become the world's sole super power in the world? 

And now, the chance to piss that away.  (Well, even quicker than our general selfish, short-sightedness was doing anyway.  Much, quicker)

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1 minute ago, bradyfan said:

What about the EU, Russia, China, India, and Brazil?

Uh, none of them are the world's sole superpower. 

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2 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

If steel workers in the rust belt made $10,000 a year, we'd make a lot more steel in the USA. 

True and if our GDP wasn’t so high, people would be able to live off of $10,000 a year.

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Just now, James Daulton said:

Uh, none of them are the world's sole superpower. 

They also will all become relatively more powerful as the lone superpower's superpower is diminished by this very trade war.  You know, minor things in a historical sense.

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4 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

What about the EU, Russia, China, India, and Brazil?

The GDP of Brazil is like 10% of the US GDP. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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16 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

I need some metrics to gain concrete understanding of the pros and cons.

If you want metrics - go to Europe or Canada - or just about anywhere else in the world...

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6 minutes ago, Koya said:

They also will all become relatively more powerful as the lone superpower's superpower is diminished by this very trade war.  You know, minor things in a historical sense.

So China and India did not become more powerful in the last 20 years due to free trade?

Edited by bradyfan

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Just now, bradyfan said:

So China and India did not become more powerful in the last 20 years due to free trade?

More powerful than us? No. 

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2 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

More powerful than us? No. 

But USA is already numero uno 50 years ago, no?

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27 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

I need some metrics to gain concrete understanding of the pros and cons.

Maybe you should pick up any basic economics textbook.

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5 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

So China and India did not become more powerful in the last 20 years due to free trade?

China is going to become far more economically powerful due to our abandonment of the TPP. 

But- the real question is, should we fear economic rivals? The answer is no. It’s the opposite of military power. When other countries gain economic strength we benefit. 

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Just now, Slapdash said:

Maybe you should pick up any basic economics textbook.

I was hoping someone here is smart enough to give me a cliff note run down.  Where is Tim when you neeed him?

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8 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

So China and India did not become more powerful in the last 20 years due to free trade?

:confused:.....:doh:...:no:

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3 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

But USA is already numero uno 50 years ago, no?

This is meaningless. Our standard of living is much higher now than it was 50 years ago. 

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31 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

I need some metrics to gain concrete understanding of the pros and cons.

I'd start with this book:

Prices Go Up, Prices Go Down: The Laws of Supply and Demand
by David Adler

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3 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

I was hoping someone here is smart enough to give me a cliff note run down.  Where is Tim when you neeed him?

You're trying to thread a needle here of someone smart enough to explain things, but dumb enough to do it to an obvious alias who will not listen.  Good luck.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gains_from_trade

Edited by Slapdash
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3 minutes ago, timschochet said:

China is going to become far more economically powerful due to our abandonment of the TPP. 

But- the real question is, should we fear economic rivals? The answer is no. It’s the opposite of military power. When other countries gain economic strength we benefit. 

How did China become threat in the first place?

If we have free trade now then why isn’t Amazon making more billions in China and India?

Edited by bradyfan

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Just now, bradyfan said:

How did China become threat in the first place?

If we have free trade now then why isn’t Amazon making more billions in China and India?

What is Amazon going to sell to China and India?

Goods made in China and India, and sold by Amazon in China/India are not imports to China/India

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When a point is made that we are the world's only superpower, and the response is a non sequitur deflection that other (nonsuperpowers) have gained strength over the past decades, any pretense of looking to genuinely engage, learn, debate, is lost.

Back to the topic...

 

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5 minutes ago, timschochet said:

China is going to become far more economically powerful due to our abandonment of the TPP. 

But- the real question is, should we fear economic rivals? The answer is no. It’s the opposite of military power. When other countries gain economic strength we benefit. 

Unless and until, the US$ is not considered the world reserve currency.

 

Or, until the balance swings, and China and India become consumers of good produced by cheap labor in America.

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3 hours ago, timschochet said:
3 hours ago, The Commish said:

Link?  I can't imagine his supporters being fond of this in any meaningful number.

It's just speculation on my part regarding Sanders. But these Democrats like what Trump is doing:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/06/trade-democrats-tariffs-rust-belt-442822

There are certainly reasons to be critical of free trade deals, but these Democrats do not make those points.  It's sad.

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1 minute ago, bradyfan said:

How did China become threat in the first place?

If we have free trade now then why isn’t Amazon making more billions in China and India?

1. China became a threat to the United States when it became Communist in 1949. China became an economic rival to the USA in 1973. They are not a threat to us as a rival, but they remain a threat to us as an autocratic, still nominally Communist nuclear power with the largest military on Earth. 

2. The hope is that as the consumer base rises in both India and China, companies like Amazon will make more billions. We have untapped markets in all of Asia that can bring us tremendous prosperity over this next century- so long as we don’t blow it by becoming protectionist. 

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8 minutes ago, dschuler said:

:confused:.....:doh:...:no:

Great Britain supported free trade, so why is it not a superpower anymore?  I’m confused.

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6 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

What is Amazon going to sell to China and India?

Goods made in China and India, and sold by Amazon in China/India are not imports to China/India

Does this mean free trade works better for countries that can produce goods at a lower price?

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5 minutes ago, Koya said:

When a point is made that we are the world's only superpower, and the response is a non sequitur deflection that other (nonsuperpowers) have gained strength over the past decades, any pretense of looking to genuinely engage, learn, debate, is lost.

Back to the topic...

 

I said I am here to learn.  You have to look for someone else if you want to debate.

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6 minutes ago, timschochet said:

1. China became a threat to the United States when it became Communist in 1949. China became an economic rival to the USA in 1973. They are not a threat to us as a rival, but they remain a threat to us as an autocratic, still nominally Communist nuclear power with the largest military on Earth. 

2. The hope is that as the consumer base rises in both India and China, companies like Amazon will make more billions. We have untapped markets in all of Asia that can bring us tremendous prosperity over this next century- so long as we don’t blow it by becoming protectionist. 

Which US companies are making a lot of money in China and India right now?

Edited by bradyfan

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5 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

Great Britain supported free trade, so why is it not a superpower anymore?  I’m confused.

First off I don’t believe you are confused. I believe you’re trolling, and attempting to attack free trade at the same time. 

But you raised a very good issue here. Great Britain is no longer a superpower. And the people there have a much higher standard of living now than when they were forced to pay taxes for maintaining that empire they used to own. 

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11 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

What is Amazon going to sell to China and India?

Goods made in China and India, and sold by Amazon in China/India are not imports to China/India

I used to buy a lot from Amazon but now I usually find better prices elsewhere, and no fakes.

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5 minutes ago, timschochet said:

First off I don’t believe you are confused. I believe you’re trolling, and attempting to attack free trade at the same time. 

But you raised a very good issue here. Great Britain is no longer a superpower. And the people there have a much higher standard of living now than when they were forced to pay taxes for maintaining that empire they used to own. 

I am not attacking free trade.  Every policy has its pros and cons.  To make it work for us, we need to recognize the pitfalls.

Edited by bradyfan

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10 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

Great Britain supported free trade, so why is it not a superpower anymore?  I’m confused.

Great Britain isn't a superpower anymore because it is smaller than the size of Florida and Georgia combined.  Would Florida/Georgia be a superpower?  No.  Great Britain gave up a lot of areas they once controlled,  are very limited in its natural resources and doesn't have tech giants like South Korea and Japan have. 

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