Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
On TV now lying some more. Mostly about the transcript and Ukraine. Really like this beauty thogh HE is opening up China so that we can trade with them. As if this is a new market. God I hate him.
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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter timschochet
- Start date
James Daulton
Footballguy
Wait, we traded with China pre-Trump?
And next you'll tell me that they haven't pinkie sweared to stop stealing our intellectual property.
Trump haters...SMH
Y'all act like Trump has accomplished the most of any president and that he didn't win the largest electoral landslide of all time. Plus he's really really great at writing notes to foreign heads of state and he knows more about hurricanes than the NWS.
timschochet
Footballguy
Any lifting of tariffs is a good thing.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
The Dow was. About even now. Point is this was some sort of blockbuster deal, "one of the greatest of all time", the Dow would be up at least 500,maybe 1000 or more.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
I heard something more comprehensive would be released later today. Wasn't paying close attention to some guy on CNBC that saw them but he said "I don't know how these numbers work*.
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Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
That is the nature of the market. If you follow it hour by hour it will drive you crazy.
John Blutarsky
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Yeah, shame on us for actually reading and understanding the terms of this "deal"....just like we all knew that you and the regulars would claim this regardless of results.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Well if that is the case that is unfortunate as it is about so much more than whoever is POTUS.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Don't worry, nobody has said that. What people HAVE said, myself included, is that CORRECTIONS are a very normal thing in the market and it would be nice if we had one a few months before the election because it would almost assure a Trump defeat since its why so many people claim to love him.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They’re lifting 7.5% on the smallest tranche, $120b (at an unspecified time). In exchange, they’re buying #### they need.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Since he took office, I’m highly unimpressed by his negotiating skills. Even if they buy agriculture heavily, which in all honesty they should, it’ll take a few years just to make up for what they haven’t bought recently.
Regardless, since he took office, he has gotten zero accomplished with China. He is at a disadvantage versus Xi since he has an election to worry about. Regardless, he was inaugurated almost 3 years ago and there has been little done here.
China is an important issue, much more important than all bull#### you guys argue about endlessly. We can’t have a country like China being the world’s superpower. It’s a bipartisan issue, for the good America.
If he is re-elected, I will look back on this for his legacy above all the bull####, and there’s a lot of it. If he puts a halt to China’s rise, kudos to him! Here’s the rub, I just don’t think he’s a good negotiator. He’s gotten abused by the Chinese for the last 3 years.
Regardless, since he took office, he has gotten zero accomplished with China. He is at a disadvantage versus Xi since he has an election to worry about. Regardless, he was inaugurated almost 3 years ago and there has been little done here.
China is an important issue, much more important than all bull#### you guys argue about endlessly. We can’t have a country like China being the world’s superpower. It’s a bipartisan issue, for the good America.
If he is re-elected, I will look back on this for his legacy above all the bull####, and there’s a lot of it. If he puts a halt to China’s rise, kudos to him! Here’s the rub, I just don’t think he’s a good negotiator. He’s gotten abused by the Chinese for the last 3 years.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Yep, he actually had leverage. Have to believe he made this deal just because he needed a win.. So dumb.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
My 12 year old son is a better negotiator. Really sharp kid. I think he should be a lawyer but he wants to be an astronaut of all things. Great in math, in 7th grade and tutors high school students. /brag
Just heard on MSNBC from a soybean farmer representative from Wisconsin. He's optimistic about the trade deal, but agreed that we'll never get back all of the Chinese market we had pre-trade, as countries such as Brazil have increased soybean cultivation (also, infrastructure). So, these farmers are diversifying their export market so they'll never be so dependent on one customer.
whoknew
Footballguy
I haven't seen an article on the details yet, but this is from twitter -
Larry Kudlow tells @CNBC that the $40 to $50 billion of ag purchases in the China trade deal is over a two year period.
If Kudlow is correct -- and it matches what WH told me in October -- then Trump's trade war has accomplished exactly nothing. Ag purchases would go back to they were before Trump started it.
Larry Kudlow tells @CNBC that the $40 to $50 billion of ag purchases in the China trade deal is over a two year period.
If Kudlow is correct -- and it matches what WH told me in October -- then Trump's trade war has accomplished exactly nothing. Ag purchases would go back to they were before Trump started it.
msommer
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
LinkEven as officials in Washington and Beijing began disclosing the first details, however, critics complained that resolving the most damaging Chinese trade practices had been left to future talks.
Trump initiated his trade war with China in March 2018 to close a yawning trade deficit and to counter what he described as a widespread Chinese campaign to acquire advanced American technology by theft or coercion. In the ensuing months, he slapped tariffs on more than two-thirds of all Chinese goods and threatened to hit the rest starting Sunday.The deal averts those tariffs, which would have applied to $160 billion in consumer goods such as laptops, clothing and toys, and includes the first formal Chinese promises to stop forcing U.S. companies to surrender their technology to enter the Chinese market. "This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!” the president said on Twitter, where he announced the agreement. ()
The 86-page accord caps a 21-month battle that saw the U.S. raise its tariffs to their highest levels in decades, reversing nearly three generations of progress toward freer global commerce. Manufacturing supply chains were disrupted as companies relocated factories outside of China to escape Trump’s levies.
Those that couldn’t shift quickly enough got stuck with a tariff bill that totaled $65 billion in the most recent fiscal year. Taxpayers, meanwhile, forked over $28 billion — twice the cost of the 2009 auto industry bailout — to compensate farmers for lost sales. To cope with the trade war’s impact on business confidence and investment, the Federal Reserve executed an abrupt U-turn and began cutting interest rates.
“If it’s what I think it is, it’s not even close to worth it,” said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If you turn this deal sideways, it’s almost invisible.”
Asked if the “phase one” agreement was worth the cost, Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said: “Not really, no.”
Financial markets were unimpressed. The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 130 points before quickly surrendering those gains, ending the day up a bit more than 3 points to close at 28,135.38. @Da Guru @John Blutarsky
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Psshh... We don't need experts and the global elites to tell us about trade deals. We know a good deal when we see obe, and this is obviously a huge deal, probably the biggest deal that the US has ever seen. So much prosperity will come from this deal. Thank you, President Trump!
msommer
Footballguy
Not quite, there is still a lot of imports with 7.5% tariffs on them. Yay - Higher prices!!!
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
U.S. Secretly Expelled Chinese Officials Suspected of Spying After Breach of Military Base
Yeah, Trump has the Chinese right where he wants them.
Yeah, Trump has the Chinese right where he wants them.
siffoin
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
So let's take a break for a brief moment from the impeachment talk and celebrate what happens when the Republicans and Democrats can get together for once. The USMCA is a tremendous trade deal, it is in some ways an improvement on NAFTA (which was also an excellent deal for this country) in terms of worker protections. It should be great for farmers, and will add to our current prosperity. Hopefully it will help bring about an end to the trade war with China as well.
So congratulation to President Trump, the trade negotiators, the Republicans, the Democrats, everyone involved. This is a good thing.
So congratulation to President Trump, the trade negotiators, the Republicans, the Democrats, everyone involved. This is a good thing.
timschochet
Footballguy
Of course. He's been pushing for it. I imagine it will go straight through to the President's desk.
sho nuff
Footballguy
It could have already...why hasn't it?
The deal appears to be a small improvement over NAFTA...basically repackaged and some of the new protections insisted upon by democrats make it a good deal. Congrats to them for getting Trump to cave...but ill hold off in making this some huge victory for him...bu nearly every account its not hugely different than what we had...so did we lose anything in the mean time (I dont think so...at least not at the level we have with China)
Is a modest improvement to what he called the worst deal ever something to credit him with doing well? Or should we credit those that opposed some of what he wanted and got the proper issues addressed.
timschochet
Footballguy
First, not sure what you mean by "it could have already"- the Democrats waited to vote on it until today.
Second, there's no doubt in my mind that Trump's rhetoric about NAFTA was wrong-headed and really stupid. But even so, from what I can see this deal is slightly better so it's an improvement. And as far as crediting, I credit everybody involved. Most of all, its the first major bipartisan agreement not dealing with the budget that I can think of in a long time...maybe in the last 10-12 years? Since TARP. And that's worth celebrating IMO.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Sorry...my fault...was going off of memory that it had passed and MCConnels initial wording and didn't realize the house had not passed til now.
Yes...I commend the sides for working together for once for an improvement...something that could have been done months ago....which is why it also deserves criticism.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Have not followed this too much but listening to the radio it sounds like this is a good deal.
The Commish
Footballguy
The overall view of the deal seems to be upgrades to worker protections while tweaking the old agreement in ways that helps certain industries in modest ways. I don't know if that's "good" or "bad" but it seems to be an improvement and not a step backwards, so that's progress. The social aspect of this will be entertaining to watch. Traditionally, the GOP claims to be of the "free trade" type. The mechanisms put in place to protect the workers aren't that. They are decidedly "socialist" (by the GOP types). The mechanisms are relatively "isolationist" by any practical measure. This agreement is a shift away from "let the market decide" towards "let the government help you out". I'd have to imagine all those shouting "socialism!!!!!!!!!!!!!" when talking about Bernie and/or Warren are going to have a rough time reconciling that complaint and full throated support of this bill OR they'll be ok with their hypocrisy.
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Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Not surprising as they have been trying to close that plant for 20 years. It was built in the early 1900s and is totally outdated and has not been economically feasible for years. Without a total revision and investment with updates it could not continue. US steel was never going to update and invest in that old plant when Gary IN can take over the same workload. Plus it was one of the the heaviest air and water polluter`s in SE Michigan. Many residents of the down river area of Detroit are glad this cesspool of a plant is finally closing.
I have been in there twice, it is the filthiest environment I have ever been in. Over the years it has been closed a number of times dues to workers becoming ill from gases emitted inside the plant.
boots11234
Footballguy
So much Winning!!! Obama said he was going to redo this deal. Crickets. Trump 1.5 years.
Gopher State
Footballguy
On talk radio they said that Ford is adding 3000 jobs and investing 1.5 billon in two factories in Detroit . They said that before Trump these jobs would be going to 
Mexico.
Mexico.
beef
Footballguy
There were sites in Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio and Canada pushing for it too. Gov. Whitmer and the Michigan Strategic Fund fought hard and won it for Michigan Autoworkers.On talk radio they said that Ford is adding 3000 jobs and investing 1.5 billon in two factories in Detroit . They said that before Trump these jobs would be going to
The Commish
Footballguy
Evan Osnos made a statement on Fresh Air today saying the average American has come out of pocket $1300 to fund the trade war with China. That number's only going to go up. I am trying to understand/predict what the steps will be of the next administration to get this ship righted.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
China to Send Chief Trade Negotiator to U.S. to Sign Phase-One Deal
It sure sounds like he plans on staying. Almost like he can't lose.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
That's a reach by him don't you think? The average American is making $45000 a year. Allowing 1.5% for inflation, prices would have had to increase by 5% for that to be true and that's assuming no one is saving a dime.
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The Commish
Footballguy
I haven't dug into it to verify completely. I generally trust Osnos given his life is observing and reporting on China and our relationship with them. I think you understand the issues with using "Average American" here. I am sure there are some who aren't affected at all and then those who have been significantly impacted. His point might be better received/understood if he said something like "the cost to Americans is $XX Billions and that comes out to about $XXXX per person" or some such. I suspect that's where he's going. To your point though, we already know that well over half the country has no form of savings of any kind...some by choice, most not. There's been a rather large increase in food costs, even I've noticed that.
msommer
Footballguy
He really only should be counting tariffs paid and lost sales on goods the other parties have imposed tariffs on (and the second might be hard to pin down - uncertainty principle). Job losses (if included) are hard to argue for in the present job market of virtual full employment. He also should make it on the bolded argument, not "average American" argument.
Prices of domestically produces foods, such as pork and soy derivatives ought to have gone down - so is this "LOOK AT ME I EAT FRENCH CHEESE!!!"?
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
And I generally trust what you post. In this case, it doesn't pass the eye test for me. It's funny that you mention food, I was going to say I'm seeing food prices coming down. I've be picking up grass fed filets for $7.50 a pound and grass fed strips and ribeye for $6.99 to $7.99. Milk prices are down again but I realize that's a state controlled thing. I go to Best Buy and a Mac Book Air is $800 and the Samsung QLEDs are the same price they have been or cheaper.
I suspect that he's taking the total amount in tariffs and dividing by the total number of people. The reality may be that many companies are eating this in loss of profit.
For me the eye test is that the average American is making between $40-$50k. The bulk of their budget is going to housing built before the tariffs (fixed), gas (flat), medical insurance (not significantly impacted by tariffs). To get to $1300 you have to have a huge price increases on a small piece of the pie.
The Commish
Footballguy
Could be. It was a single sentence in his explanation of another point. It wasn't the focus of the conversation. I probably shouldn't have even brought it up without digging in to figure out where he was coming from...that's my bad
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I have no issue with you bringing it up and want to discuss it. I originally asked if his statement was BS with a question mark and the end. That could be construed that I thought you were posting BS so I've edited my original post.Could be. It was a single sentence in his explanation of another point. It wasn't the focus of the conversation. I probably shouldn't have even brought it up without digging in to figure out where he was coming from...that's my bad
It makes perfect sense to think the Trump trade war would have huge negative impacts on the economy. Costing the average person $1300 would be a huge impact. I'm just trying to rationalize where that impact is actually being seen. Personally I'm not seeing it, but I'm just one data point.
The Commish
Footballguy
I know GB...no worries. Our food prices are going up pretty steadily here in Florida. And oddly enough, washing machines and dryers
I only know about that because we just recently purchased both. What we purchased 9 months ago now costs $100ish more per appliance. Complete anecdote but it's what I've seen. Farmers here have been hammered and I've documented what I've seen with the lobster industry down here. I suspect those kinds of groups who are completely decimated are a significant contributor to that number. One person loses $5000 and the other two lose nothing, that "averages" out to $1600 a person (rough math...but I think we agree). That sort of thing.
msommer
Footballguy
IIRC, washing machines and dryers were some of the first things with a tariff on it and it pretty quickly led to price increasesI know GB...no worries. Our food prices are going up pretty steadily here in Florida. And oddly enough, washing machines and dryers
The Commish
Footballguy
I had heard that was going to be the case and that's why we bought when we did. I just never looked at it again to see if true...apparently it is.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
According to CNBC an hour ago nobody other than Trump or his inner circle has seen the actual deal yet. Must be a real winner.
The Commish
Footballguy
Isn't it sitting on McConnell's desk with the rest of the legislation passed by the House?According to CNBC an hour ago nobody other than Trump or his inner circle has seen the actual deal yet. Must be a real winner.
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