Zyphros
Footballguy
Well it's that time again. Post-combine rankings to give you what I have. My rankings are based on 2QB leagues with .5 ppr. The other thing I'd like to mention is I'm aiming more for high ceiling guys or quick flip guys this year and hoping that strategy pans out for me as I think if any of them hit, they'll be hot commodities, where as I don't particularly love any prospect this year with 2 exceptions other than Barkley since everyone loves him.
Here we go to kick it off, and a little write up for each guy, my top20 Rookie rankings. Feel free to post your own.
Saquon Barkely - Obviously?
Derrius Guice - He's grown on me since I posted pre-combine rankings about a month and a half ago and with Chubb not being as much as a pass catcher, and Ronald Jones not participating at the combine (due to injury running his 40), it kind of forces my hand to put Guice up here. I like his game but I am kind of scared he is more Carlos Hyde than Zeke Elliott.
Nick Chubb - I love Nick Chubb, he's built like a true hammer, but has good quickness to be more than that and create on his own. Only thing to question is if he's a natural pass catcher so his workload could be limited. I like to think Jordan Howard is his floor.
Sony Michel - Can do it all, and I expect him to be given a chance at a workhorse role, however he hasn't exactly proven he's extraordinary at anything. I like him a lot and if I were to pick a guy in this class to outproduce everyone else as a surprise pick, Michel would be my guy.
Ronald Jones - Loved everything I saw up until the 40 run. But if he runs 4.66 or whatever as he's pulling up, I think his speed is fine. The problem is he still was only 205 which isn't great. Personally I hate the Jamaal Charles comparisons because Jones actually grinds out more yards between the tackles than Charles did and the style isn't the same. Pretty safe floor I'd imagine but questions are valid.
Josh Rosen - Landing spot dependent but he can chuck it. Least concerning QB to me this year.
Baker Mayfield - Most concerning QB to me this year, but he's a baller. He oozes upside and he knows his football. I wouldn't be surprised for wonderlic if he was the highest scoring. That is why I have him as my QB2
John Kelly - Measured in bigger than expected and claims he was that weight all year so why isn't he being considered up there with some of these other RB's? I don't know, but he's basically the same size as Michel with less production. I honestly don't really watch college football so could it be the Tennessee system vs the Georgia system who pumps out RB numbers where Tennessee isn't known for that? No idea, just a thought.
Josh Allen - Big arm, seems to play the part of QB really well. Concerns are obvious that he's inconsistent and all but any QB can have an off day. Even if he does have questionable decision making, he'll still go in the 1st round to someone and they'll give him a chance. Worst case he turns out to be Jay Cutler.
Sam Darnold - Safe. Not flashy, can win you games, but safe. He's Joe Flacco without the arm strength in terms of career, not playing style.
Rashaad Penny - I moved pretty much every RB on my list up a few spots and I do like Penny. Another guy who isn't flashy, more of a grinder, but he's good (not great) in all phases it seems and situation could vault him up a little more I'd think.
Michael Gallup - My favorite WR this year. Safe floor, good ceiling, and could get on the field early for an NFL team. Most of these WR's are pretty "blah" that are situation/opportunity dependent but I think Gallup could challenge a lot of #3 WR's on a team instantly.
Dallas Goedert - Man among boys in 2017, circus catches and amazing grabs, I'll be super interested in his pro day when that comes around, but he's my favorite TE this year. I want to put him higher because most of my leagues are 2TE but the waiting period for TE's is just so long it's hard to wait on guys like that. This ranking (along with Gesicki) are a little more a product of what TE's I have on my rosters already.
Christian Kirk - He's amazing in space. A plus version of Tavon Austin who was a top rookie pick his year. In the right system he could be dynamite for PPR or return yardage leagues. Easy path to playing time with his special teams ability as well. And the more he can show, the more chances he'll get.
Royce Freeman - I'm banking on his production. I didn't necessarily "like" Freeman a lot when I watched him, so this is probably a bit lower than consensus, and I'm fine with not owning him on my teams.
Mike Gesicki - Stud athlete, good production. What do they feed the guys at Penn State? The studly RB or WR doesn't necessarily have to be a stud athlete, but it seems the TE does.
Equanimeous St. Brown - My 2nd favorite WR in the draft with a ceiling that is through the roof. I don't have him ranked at WR2 but I think he could become the guy everyone wants after a year. I finally caved in and moved him above Ridley thinking of their ceilings.
Calvin Ridley - I've soured on Ridley a lot lately, and the more I think about him, the more I get a "meh" feeling. He's too slight, he isn't exceptionally fast or quick or tall or a larger than avg catch radius, he's just "meh". There are 2 situations in mind that I think could propel him back up a bit but I don't see myself moving him up a whole lot regardless of landing spot. Wouldn't be surprised if he had a Randall Cobb type of career.
Lamar Jackson - He's not a guy I'm willing to hitch my wagon on because he has more warts than any other QB in the draft. If you want a running QB, go get RGIII off waivers and expect similar results. That's what he'll be. A wonder when he starts playing because he creates on his own and makes spectacular plays, but then you scratch your head of why he still can't throw when he drops back and sits in the pocket.
Courtland Sutton - He tested much better than I expected. But he still can't run routes. His hips don't sink, he just turns around and CB's will eat him alive if he doesn't push off on every play. I think with the athleticism he showed, he can learn better technique and become a better WR in the long term, but he isn't day 1 starter material to me. That's the difference between him and Treadwell. Sutton tested better in every way than Treadwell did so perhaps that gives him an edge on that comparison to debunk it. Either way I'll believe it when I see it, but it won't be from my team with how low I rank him. With the WR's I ranked ahead of him, I think the immediate return will be greater, and the wait for them to be something special will be shorter, if they reach that ceiling I have in mind.
Noticeable guys I left off my top20, not in any particular order:
DJ Moore - I don't think he has great WR characteristics to be a success when everyone in the NFL is better. He had amazing production when teams knew it was coming his way, but the traits I look at for a WR, hands, quickness, quick feet, looseness in routes, sharp cuts, explosiveness, all the things you can think of that would help a WR. I didn't feel like he was that good at any of it. He seems to be a great athlete so I'm willing to say he can learn the nuances and become better, I just don't know how much better that will be. He's a hard one to project for me, so I left him off my top20. If an NFL team rolls with him early in the draft, I'll adjust accordingly.
Kalen Ballage - Honestly thought he'd test a lot better than he did which makes me question his work ethic and preparation for the combine. That and he never really broke out as a RB for his team in college either. He coasted. Good players show up for practice and game's while great players go beyond and I think he can be used, but he won't be a bellcow.
Kerryon Johnson - He just isn't a good RB. Bad vision, indecisive, doesn't have much suddenness, so I'm not bothering.
DJ Chark - He's fast, I get that, I also get that he was at LSU where his QB's did him little to no favors most of the time. More of a "believe it when I see it" type of guy, and if he goes to a good spot could move up. He's obviously athletic but I think taking him early is a mistake when there are safer floors, with just as high or higher of a ceiling than Chark.
Here we go to kick it off, and a little write up for each guy, my top20 Rookie rankings. Feel free to post your own.
Saquon Barkely - Obviously?
Derrius Guice - He's grown on me since I posted pre-combine rankings about a month and a half ago and with Chubb not being as much as a pass catcher, and Ronald Jones not participating at the combine (due to injury running his 40), it kind of forces my hand to put Guice up here. I like his game but I am kind of scared he is more Carlos Hyde than Zeke Elliott.
Nick Chubb - I love Nick Chubb, he's built like a true hammer, but has good quickness to be more than that and create on his own. Only thing to question is if he's a natural pass catcher so his workload could be limited. I like to think Jordan Howard is his floor.
Sony Michel - Can do it all, and I expect him to be given a chance at a workhorse role, however he hasn't exactly proven he's extraordinary at anything. I like him a lot and if I were to pick a guy in this class to outproduce everyone else as a surprise pick, Michel would be my guy.
Ronald Jones - Loved everything I saw up until the 40 run. But if he runs 4.66 or whatever as he's pulling up, I think his speed is fine. The problem is he still was only 205 which isn't great. Personally I hate the Jamaal Charles comparisons because Jones actually grinds out more yards between the tackles than Charles did and the style isn't the same. Pretty safe floor I'd imagine but questions are valid.
Josh Rosen - Landing spot dependent but he can chuck it. Least concerning QB to me this year.
Baker Mayfield - Most concerning QB to me this year, but he's a baller. He oozes upside and he knows his football. I wouldn't be surprised for wonderlic if he was the highest scoring. That is why I have him as my QB2
John Kelly - Measured in bigger than expected and claims he was that weight all year so why isn't he being considered up there with some of these other RB's? I don't know, but he's basically the same size as Michel with less production. I honestly don't really watch college football so could it be the Tennessee system vs the Georgia system who pumps out RB numbers where Tennessee isn't known for that? No idea, just a thought.
Josh Allen - Big arm, seems to play the part of QB really well. Concerns are obvious that he's inconsistent and all but any QB can have an off day. Even if he does have questionable decision making, he'll still go in the 1st round to someone and they'll give him a chance. Worst case he turns out to be Jay Cutler.
Sam Darnold - Safe. Not flashy, can win you games, but safe. He's Joe Flacco without the arm strength in terms of career, not playing style.
Rashaad Penny - I moved pretty much every RB on my list up a few spots and I do like Penny. Another guy who isn't flashy, more of a grinder, but he's good (not great) in all phases it seems and situation could vault him up a little more I'd think.
Michael Gallup - My favorite WR this year. Safe floor, good ceiling, and could get on the field early for an NFL team. Most of these WR's are pretty "blah" that are situation/opportunity dependent but I think Gallup could challenge a lot of #3 WR's on a team instantly.
Dallas Goedert - Man among boys in 2017, circus catches and amazing grabs, I'll be super interested in his pro day when that comes around, but he's my favorite TE this year. I want to put him higher because most of my leagues are 2TE but the waiting period for TE's is just so long it's hard to wait on guys like that. This ranking (along with Gesicki) are a little more a product of what TE's I have on my rosters already.
Christian Kirk - He's amazing in space. A plus version of Tavon Austin who was a top rookie pick his year. In the right system he could be dynamite for PPR or return yardage leagues. Easy path to playing time with his special teams ability as well. And the more he can show, the more chances he'll get.
Royce Freeman - I'm banking on his production. I didn't necessarily "like" Freeman a lot when I watched him, so this is probably a bit lower than consensus, and I'm fine with not owning him on my teams.
Mike Gesicki - Stud athlete, good production. What do they feed the guys at Penn State? The studly RB or WR doesn't necessarily have to be a stud athlete, but it seems the TE does.
Equanimeous St. Brown - My 2nd favorite WR in the draft with a ceiling that is through the roof. I don't have him ranked at WR2 but I think he could become the guy everyone wants after a year. I finally caved in and moved him above Ridley thinking of their ceilings.
Calvin Ridley - I've soured on Ridley a lot lately, and the more I think about him, the more I get a "meh" feeling. He's too slight, he isn't exceptionally fast or quick or tall or a larger than avg catch radius, he's just "meh". There are 2 situations in mind that I think could propel him back up a bit but I don't see myself moving him up a whole lot regardless of landing spot. Wouldn't be surprised if he had a Randall Cobb type of career.
Lamar Jackson - He's not a guy I'm willing to hitch my wagon on because he has more warts than any other QB in the draft. If you want a running QB, go get RGIII off waivers and expect similar results. That's what he'll be. A wonder when he starts playing because he creates on his own and makes spectacular plays, but then you scratch your head of why he still can't throw when he drops back and sits in the pocket.
Courtland Sutton - He tested much better than I expected. But he still can't run routes. His hips don't sink, he just turns around and CB's will eat him alive if he doesn't push off on every play. I think with the athleticism he showed, he can learn better technique and become a better WR in the long term, but he isn't day 1 starter material to me. That's the difference between him and Treadwell. Sutton tested better in every way than Treadwell did so perhaps that gives him an edge on that comparison to debunk it. Either way I'll believe it when I see it, but it won't be from my team with how low I rank him. With the WR's I ranked ahead of him, I think the immediate return will be greater, and the wait for them to be something special will be shorter, if they reach that ceiling I have in mind.
Noticeable guys I left off my top20, not in any particular order:
DJ Moore - I don't think he has great WR characteristics to be a success when everyone in the NFL is better. He had amazing production when teams knew it was coming his way, but the traits I look at for a WR, hands, quickness, quick feet, looseness in routes, sharp cuts, explosiveness, all the things you can think of that would help a WR. I didn't feel like he was that good at any of it. He seems to be a great athlete so I'm willing to say he can learn the nuances and become better, I just don't know how much better that will be. He's a hard one to project for me, so I left him off my top20. If an NFL team rolls with him early in the draft, I'll adjust accordingly.
Kalen Ballage - Honestly thought he'd test a lot better than he did which makes me question his work ethic and preparation for the combine. That and he never really broke out as a RB for his team in college either. He coasted. Good players show up for practice and game's while great players go beyond and I think he can be used, but he won't be a bellcow.
Kerryon Johnson - He just isn't a good RB. Bad vision, indecisive, doesn't have much suddenness, so I'm not bothering.
DJ Chark - He's fast, I get that, I also get that he was at LSU where his QB's did him little to no favors most of the time. More of a "believe it when I see it" type of guy, and if he goes to a good spot could move up. He's obviously athletic but I think taking him early is a mistake when there are safer floors, with just as high or higher of a ceiling than Chark.
