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2018 Sleepers, Midseason Callups and Breakouts... (2 Viewers)

Smack Tripper

Footballguy
I think Yelich, not quite a sleeper, really takes an elite step playing in Milwaulkee

I'd keep your keeper eye on Miguel Andujar, yankees 3b, as a late guy (though I have no idea of his ADP)

Who are you guys liking?

 
Anthony Alford is the Blue Jays best outfielder right now and I think they know that, they just have to find some way to move Pillar or let him play himself out of the job.
...and just like that, he's scratched from today's game due to hamstring issues.  I've owned Alford in Serious Biz for years and have grown attached to him.  He seems like a great kid.  But he needs a healthy season more than anything this year.  I don't care whether he's in the bigs or minors but he needs 500+ PAs under his belt.

 
Nick Senzel will probably get sandbagged for a while due to service time rules, but they didn’t move him to SS this spring just for fun. They know that’s his path to major league ABs in 2018 and when he gets them he’s going to very relevant in fantasy baseball. Think Corey Seager type bat with worse defense and better ballpark. 

As far as veteran sleepers Cameron Maybin would presumably have a green light to run wild if he can stay healthy for once.  Miami has nothing else going on and might as well let him get 10-15 HRs and 40 steals. 

 
I like Mikie Mahtook as a cheap guy who'll put up numbers for a bad team.  He has 20/20 upside if he plays every day and won't kill you in OBP leagues.

 
Jose Pirela, OF for SD. He should be starting and playing everyday week 1. He might gain position eligibility elsewhere (such as 2B) as the season progresses. 

Steven Duggar, OF for SF. He's having a great Spring. He might open in a platoon but he's only 24 or 25...lots of potential here.

Walker Buehler, SP for Dodgers. The guy throws fire. He was just optioned down but could be up midseason.

Michael Conforto, OF for Mets. He's had success before but now coming back from a shoulder injury. I feel like people forgot about him. He should be ready by end of April and he really has the talent to be a great OF (top 20) for years to come.

 
I had Delino Deshields penciled into pick 178 but apparently 40+ picks in front of adp wasn't enough. It is an obp league though. I think 10/50 is a reasonable ceiling and it'll take a lot of missed time to not get 100 runs. 

Thing is if you target him you need to be careful about how you build your team. Can get into sb trouble easily if you miss him or end up with unnecessary excess if you back your way into him.

 
I had Delino Deshields penciled into pick 178 but apparently 40+ picks in front of adp wasn't enough. It is an obp league though. I think 10/50 is a reasonable ceiling and it'll take a lot of missed time to not get 100 runs. 

Thing is if you target him you need to be careful about how you build your team. Can get into sb trouble easily if you miss him or end up with unnecessary excess if you back your way into him.
SBs are down 20% vs. ten years ago and 30% vs twenty years back.  If you don't want to overpay for speed only guys like DeShields and Hamilton, it'll take a lot of scrambling to pick up enough 10 and 15 SB players to compete in the category.

 
Here's my deep sleeper and I'm not responsible for it when it inevitably fizzles. 

Dan Vogelbach, the fat kid with a career MLB line of .175/.250/.200 has been having a torrid spring.  My normal reaction would be to ignore the pheeenom but the Mariners' 1B Ryon Healy just started hitting off a tee following hand surgery and their DH Nelson Cruz was removed from today's game with a strained quad.

Vogelbach's primary camp competition Mike Fox hasn't been hitting either.  Unfortunately, Fox is a rule 5 guy and Vogelbach has an option remaining but c'mon, you can't send down a guy batting 444/.571/.852 this spring.

 
SBs are down 20% vs. ten years ago and 30% vs twenty years back.  If you don't want to overpay for speed only guys like DeShields and Hamilton, it'll take a lot of scrambling to pick up enough 10 and 15 SB players to compete in the category.
Mallex Smith is the backup plan. One that could very well never get on the tracks. But, yes, sprinkling in as many double digit steals guys early on is the best way to combat. Lots of cheap power available late. Mostof it comes with poor avg/obp though. 

 
Here's my deep sleeper and I'm not responsible for it when it inevitably fizzles. 

Dan Vogelbach, the fat kid with a career MLB line of .175/.250/.200 has been having a torrid spring.  My normal reaction would be to ignore the pheeenom but the Mariners' 1B Ryon Healy just started hitting off a tee following hand surgery and their DH Nelson Cruz was removed from today's game with a strained quad.

Vogelbach's primary camp competition Mike Fox hasn't been hitting either.  Unfortunately, Fox is a rule 5 guy and Vogelbach has an option remaining but c'mon, you can't send down a guy batting 444/.571/.852 this spring.
Mike Ford :nerd:

 
1B - Yonder Alonso - swing adjustment guy playing in a better ballpark and lineup. 

2B - Cesar Hernandez - OBP stud who will score a ton, swipe a bunch of bags, and even pop a few.

SS - Jorge Polanco - from August on last year, he was on a 30HR/20SB pace.

3B - Matt Chapman - tons of power and knows how to take a walk. superior D keeps him on the field. 40HR potential.

OF - Schwarbs - post-hype breakout, best shape of his life and ready to finally deliver.

OF - Odubel Herrara - should pile up stats hitting 2nd or 3rd. OK, I really just love his zany antics on the field.

OF - Cameron Maybin - going very late for a guy that could swipe 30 and pop a few.

SP - Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray, Tyler Chatwood - I like all of these guys to turn a profit.

RP - Brad Boxberger - all the tea-leaves point to Archie going back to the Andrew Miller / multi-inning role. 

RP - AJ Ramos - already being called the "co-closer" and Familia is hurt.

 
...and just like that, he's scratched from today's game due to hamstring issues.  I've owned Alford in Serious Biz for years and have grown attached to him.  He seems like a great kid.  But he needs a healthy season more than anything this year.  I don't care whether he's in the bigs or minors but he needs 500+ PAs under his belt.
Out 3-6 weeks, you should probably give up on him IMO.

 
SBs are down 20% vs. ten years ago and 30% vs twenty years back.  If you don't want to overpay for speed only guys like DeShields and Hamilton, it'll take a lot of scrambling to pick up enough 10 and 15 SB players to compete in the category.
My feeling is guys like Machado, Harper, and a few other star players who are very capable of stealing 25 bases just are not running as much due to injury concerns and playing for the big contracts.   HRs and RBIs get paid.  After Trout was hurt last year stealing a base I doubt he will be running as much this season.

 
My feeling is guys like Machado, Harper, and a few other star players who are very capable of stealing 25 bases just are not running as much due to injury concerns and playing for the big contracts.   HRs and RBIs get paid.  After Trout was hurt last year stealing a base I doubt he will be running as much this season.
There also seems to be a trend of managers just feeling its better to not try and steal a base, especially when five players on the team can hit 25 hrS

 
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Improved analytics also play a role.  Average success rates have been in the 70-75% range for a long time.  Even peak Rickey got thrown out 15% of the time.  There are some situations where the risk/reward of the extra base doesn't make sense.

 
Schwarber seems to have fallen very far in drafts as compared with his new body. I took a gamble at pick 160. 

DeJong also doesn’t seem to get much love

 
Tons of people talking up Brandon Drury as a potential 30HR guy this year. Not crazy about a player's fantasy value batting 8th or 9th though.

 
Tons of people talking up Brandon Drury as a potential 30HR guy this year. Not crazy about a player's fantasy value batting 8th or 9th though.
I don't see it.  He never showed that kind of power in Arizona or the minors.  Right handed hitters with opposite field tendencies should perform well in the Bronx but he'd have to double his HR rates to hit 30.  He's a bottom of the order hitter with no speed and is at risk of losing ABs as the season progresses.

The 2B eligibility is nice though.

 
I don't see it.  He never showed that kind of power in Arizona or the minors.  Right handed hitters with opposite field tendencies should perform well in the Bronx but he'd have to double his HR rates to hit 30.  He's a bottom of the order hitter with no speed and is at risk of losing ABs as the season progresses.

The 2B eligibility is nice though.
I know little about the guy. Just keep seeing tons of articles in the Post about how Cashman has been after him for years and quotes from DBacks personnel how they didn't wanna give him up at all but needed an OF desperately. Also, they seem to think since he hit 37 doubles last year he can convert a bunch of them to HRs. Who knows. Just throwing a name out there.

 
This year more than ever, I'd like to try to get 30 SBs total from the three MIF slots.  DeJong offers nothing in that category.

 
This year more than ever, I'd like to try to get 30 SBs total from the three MIF slots.  DeJong offers nothing in that category.
To me, more importantly is to determine how many SBs won the cat last year? What were the avg and median? I don't care where I get them as long as I get all I need. 

 
To me, more importantly is to determine how many SBs won the cat last year? What were the avg and median? I don't care where I get them as long as I get all I need. 
True, there are multiple paths to compete in SBs.  But all other things being equal, getting 15 SBs from your MI slot has more roto value than the 20 HRs that DeJong will provide.

 
True, there are multiple paths to compete in SBs.  But all other things being equal, getting 15 SBs from your MI slot has more roto value than the 20 HRs that DeJong will provide.
In a 14 team 5x5 5OF roto, What do you think  the median will be? 75-80?

 
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I'm gun shy with High K/low BB power bats, especially ones with a limited track record.  He hasn't been all that cheap either.  Compare him to Eugenio Suarez who is 50 picks cheaper, buys walks, has comparable power, and a track record.
I should add, this was for a points league so I chase the power, but you make sense.  I could easily see him pulling a Jedd Gyrko sophomore season.  I grabbed him around pick 60 that year though.  But 25 homers in 108 games got my attention

 
That seems low.  I think it'll take 120 or thereabouts to finish in the top half.
So with 2UTs and 2IFs, that's about 9.25 steals pp? I had forgotten to add those four.

I think Hrs will be what 180 or so to the median? maybe 13 pp?

 
So with 2UTs and 2IFs, that's about 9.25 steals pp? I had forgotten to add those four.

I think Hrs will be what 180 or so to the median? maybe 13 pp?
This CBS article puts the HR median at ~300.  It also confirms my 120 SB target so I think it's credible. :thumbup:

But I didn't consciously track homers while drafting, maybe I should have.  SBs are a lot more scarce and it seems harder these days to chase them in-season.

 
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This CBS article puts the HR median at ~300.  It also confirms my 120 SB target so I think it's credible. :thumbup:

But I didn't consciously track homers while drafting, maybe I should have.  SBs are a lot more scarce and it seems harder these days to chase them in-season.
Sort based on SB on steamer 600 projections. It's a who's who of players you never heard of and never will again. 

 

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