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Smack Tripper

2018 Sleepers, Midseason Callups and Breakouts...

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19 hours ago, Eephus said:

That seems low.  I think it'll take 120 or thereabouts to finish in the top half.

So draft Dee Gordon and B. Hamilton and you are basically done?

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59 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Will eloy get a shot this year? 

He has less than 100 ABs above A ball.   He's on the 40 man so he'll probably get a September call up but anything more than that will depend on him proving he's ready by dominating AA/AAA and the White Sox being in contention in July/August.

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I like Jake Bauers in Tampa.  He doesn't have the upside of some of the sexier prospects but he has full years at AA and AAA under his belt.  He's almost a sure bet for a call-up once the Super Two deadline passes in early June. 

Bauers doesn't have great power but he should be positive in OBP and was 20/23 in SBs last year in AAA.  There's not a lot of talent blocking him at the big league level.

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With Martin Prado injured again, Brian Anderson will open the year at 3B for the Marlins.  Anderson hit 22 HRs in AA/AAA last year and held his own in a late year callup (.262/.337/.369).  This is his age 25 season and he has nothing still to prove in the minors. 

He's probably only a deep league option until he proves his power breakout last season is legit.  There will be cheap counting stats available in Miami this year.

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On 3/16/2018 at 8:59 AM, Eephus said:

Improved analytics also play a role.  Average success rates have been in the 70-75% range for a long time.  Even peak Rickey got thrown out 15% of the time.  There are some situations where the risk/reward of the extra base doesn't make sense.

Love me some “peak Rickey”

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I'm trying to pick up Triston McKenzie, SP for Cleveland. He needs to add some weight to his frame and he might not even be called up this year but his stuff is legit. Definite future #1 or #2 pitcher. 

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Last call for alcohol before this weekends drafts.  What do you got?

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It's digging deep, but I like Aaron Altherr, Franklin Barreto, Andrew Toles, Chris Owings, and Wimer Flores in the end game.

All of them could still open the season as bench players or in the minors, but they all don't have big hurdles in front of them and are 4-5 category contributors with full time work.  They're also easy to pull the plug on quickly (or even before the season starts) if they aren't getting playing time.  I hate waiting around on guys I know are starting in the minors and would rather speculate on these types.

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I'm ready to endorse Blake Swihart in 2 catcher leegs. Post-hype sleeper making the roster and swinging a hot bat. He won't play any catcher, but he's been getting time at 1st, 3rd, and LF too, so lots of opportunities. Not hard to envision him taking AB's from Hanley / Moreland / JBJ. He can most likely be grabbed in the last round (or waiver wire) too.

PS - Eephus' pick of Vogelbach is looking pretty good too. I liked him last year, but wasn't paying much attention after getting burned.

 

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45 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

I'm ready to endorse Blake Swihart in 2 catcher leegs. Post-hype sleeper making the roster and swinging a hot bat. He won't play any catcher, but he's been getting time at 1st, 3rd, and LF too, so lots of opportunities. Not hard to envision him taking AB's from Hanley / Moreland / JBJ. He can most likely be grabbed in the last round (or waiver wire) too.

PS - Eephus' pick of Vogelbach is looking pretty good too. I liked him last year, but wasn't paying much attention after getting burned.

 

Zero chance of actually taking PT away from JBJ. An odd day off from him yes. Moreland and Hanley , sure

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1 hour ago, HellToupee said:

Zero chance of actually taking PT away from JBJ. An odd day off from him yes. Moreland and Hanley , sure

Unlikely, but these are the type of hot taeks that get bumped in July. 

Bradley is a flawed batter. If he continues to regress like he did last year, its not out of the question that someone else gets the starts and Bradley becomes the defensive replacement. 

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59 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

Unlikely, but these are the type of hot taeks that get bumped in July. 

Bradley is a flawed batter. If he continues to regress like he did last year, its not out of the question that someone else gets the starts and Bradley becomes the defensive replacement. 

I wouldn't put it at 0% more like 10%. They have other options to play CF so I could see them benching JBJ for a stretch if he goes into a prolonged slump. Sox catchers bats are meh at best I could see Swihart getting some time behind the plate, if for no other reason than to show he can still do it to potential trade partners. 

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9 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Aaron Sanchez appears to be of particular value 

Agreed. Had him targeted. Was able to get him in my weekly (pick 155), just missed in my daily. While I would much rather have him in my daily. (In weekly, I can foresee double start weeks lost due to one of those starts being Yankee / Red Sox matchups happening all too frequently) I'm still happy with where I got him.

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On 3/16/2018 at 3:36 PM, MAC_32 said:

I'm gun shy with High K/low BB power bats, especially ones with a limited track record.  He hasn't been all that cheap either.  Compare him to Eugenio Suarez who is 50 picks cheaper, buys walks, has comparable power, and a track record.

 

On 3/14/2018 at 9:56 AM, E-Z Glider said:

1B - Yonder Alonso - swing adjustment guy playing in a better ballpark and lineup. 

2B - Cesar Hernandez - OBP stud who will score a ton, swipe a bunch of bags, and even pop a few.

SS - Jorge Polanco - from August on last year, he was on a 30HR/20SB pace.

3B - Matt Chapman - tons of power and knows how to take a walk. superior D keeps him on the field. 40HR potential.

OF - Schwarbs - post-hype breakout, best shape of his life and ready to finally deliver.

OF - Odubel Herrara - should pile up stats hitting 2nd or 3rd. OK, I really just love his zany antics on the field.

OF - Cameron Maybin - going very late for a guy that could swipe 30 and pop a few.

SP - Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray, Tyler Chatwood - I like all of these guys to turn a profit.

RP - Brad Boxberger - all the tea-leaves point to Archie going back to the Andrew Miller / multi-inning role. 

RP - AJ Ramos - already being called the "co-closer" and Familia is hurt.

tremendous info in this thread, but now 1.5 drafts into it, great info in both these, Suarez is a great call

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"SS - Jorge Polanco - from August on last year, he was on a 30HR/20SB pace."

 Now we know why :mellow:

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I like Mike Clevinger a lot this year. Good team, bad division, 10 + K/9.

It appears that based on where he's going, I'm taking yet another ride on the Mike Zunino roller coaster.

Trevor Story seems to be going later than he should too.

Schwarber's been mentioned but he went really late (to me) in my draft tonight.

Jose Martinez seems like he'll find his way to lots of AB's.

Dustin Fowler has the opportunity.

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9 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

I like Mike Clevinger a lot this year. Good team, bad division, 10 + K/9.

When he wasn't jerked around with his spot in the rotation and he found a groove last year he was dominant.  Based on the comments out of spring training I suspect he's going to get a couple of months to prove that was no fluke.

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12 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

I like Mike Clevinger a lot this year. Good team, bad division, 10 + K/9.

 

3 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

When he wasn't jerked around with his spot in the rotation and he found a groove last year he was dominant.  Based on the comments out of spring training I suspect he's going to get a couple of months to prove that was no fluke.

I thought I was going to be able to get him cheap in an auction H2H points league that has K's at a premium.  I thought wrong.  His price went sky high.  Word may be out on him but I agree that I think he will be really good this year (especially in a format that favors K's).

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On 3/13/2018 at 9:42 PM, Eephus said:

Dan Vogelbach, the fat kid with a career MLB line of .175/.250/.200 has been having a torrid spring.  My normal reaction would be to ignore the pheeenom but the Mariners' 1B Ryon Healy just started hitting off a tee following hand surgery and their DH Nelson Cruz was removed from today's game with a strained quad.

Vogelbach's primary camp competition Mike Fox hasn't been hitting either.  Unfortunately, Fox is a rule 5 guy and Vogelbach has an option remaining but c'mon, you can't send down a guy batting 444/.571/.852 this spring.

Looks like Healy might be ready now after all and Servais said today that the Mariners "acquired Healy to be [the] everyday first baseman." Bad news for the fat kid.

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7 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

Looks like Healy might be ready now after all and Servais said today that the Mariners "acquired Healy to be [the] everyday first baseman." Bad news for the fat kid.

I'm skeptical whenever a player beats the projected clock to return, but especially when it comes to Mets - so I'm doubly worried about Conforto.

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On 3/14/2018 at 6:14 AM, HellToupee said:
On 3/13/2018 at 6:42 PM, Eephus said:

Here's my deep sleeper and I'm not responsible for it when it inevitably fizzles. 

Dan Vogelbach, the fat kid with a career MLB line of .175/.250/.200 has been having a torrid spring.  My normal reaction would be to ignore the pheeenom but the Mariners' 1B Ryon Healy just started hitting off a tee following hand surgery and their DH Nelson Cruz was removed from today's game with a strained quad.

Vogelbach's primary camp competition Mike Fox hasn't been hitting either.  Unfortunately, Fox is a rule 5 guy and Vogelbach has an option remaining but c'mon, you can't send down a guy batting 444/.571/.852 this spring.

Mike Ford :nerd:

Rule 5 pick Mike Ford (and Mike Fox) returned to the Yankees

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14 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Love Aaron hicks in steal leagues. Possible 30-20 guy if he plays a full season you can get in the 200’s

We're all possible 30-20 guys

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I thought for sure that Keon Broxton would stay with the team for a bench role/ backup OF and be able to work his way into the lineup somehow. Probably better for him to get more work in the minors to be ready in case of injury or to boost his value for a trade.

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2 hours ago, jamny said:

I thought for sure that Keon Broxton would stay with the team for a bench role/ backup OF and be able to work his way into the lineup somehow. Probably better for him to get more work in the minors to be ready in case of injury or to boost his value for a trade.

I'm guessing they kept Sogard then? He probably fits their roster better and like you said, Broxton will play in AAA. He wouldn't in the show. 

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Breakout/sleeper guys I targeted and ended up with multiple shares of...

C - Mike Zunino (specifically OBP leagues)

1B - Josh Bell

2B - Yoan Moncada or Brandon Drury

3B - Nick Castellanos or Matt Chapman

SS - Ended up with Andrus here a lot.  Not really a breakout, but continuation.  I like Amed Rosario here too.

OF - Gregory Polanco, Max Kepler, Randall Grichuk, Mikie Mahtook

P - Jon Gray, Dylan Bundy, Jordan Montgomery

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7 minutes ago, rodg12 said:

Nick Castellanos

:yes::popcorn:

I don't know how I ended up Gregory Polanco-less everywhere, but - so it goes.

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30 minutes ago, rodg12 said:

Breakout/sleeper guys I targeted and ended up with multiple shares of...

C - Mike Zunino (specifically OBP leagues)

Hard to resist that .280 career obp eh?

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Derek Dietrich gets the start for Florida batting second vs. a lefty.  If he can hold his own against southpaws (he was decent in small 2017 sample size), he'll be a cheap source of counting stats in OBP leagues.

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Colin Moran will be the biggest surprise this season. I’m all in.

 

to quote Brick Top

“if I throw a dog a bone, I don't want to know if it tastes good or not.”

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8 hours ago, HellToupee said:

Colin Moran will be the biggest surprise this season. I’m all in.

 

to quote Brick Top

“if I throw a dog a bone, I don't want to know if it tastes good or not.”

agree on Moran. Definitely worth a   shot

Josh Reddick still avail all over the place, double digit steals and HR along with great Avg and counting stats

Long longshots pretty much available everywhere

Vinnie Vasquez - stranger things happen

Santander OF - he's starting and that's where it starts. His bat showed some life in AAA and he did not embarass with last year's callup

Jorge Soler - forget his stats and look at his pedigree in a fresh start

 

 

Edited by cosjobs

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5 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Franklin Barreto just got the call - smoke em if you got em

I’m in the minority here on this but , meh. I’m not a believer 

Edited by HellToupee

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With Suarez going down, it seems like the Reds aren't bringing up Senzel just yet.  Think it's just the few days for the extra year, or they still want him to play 2B?

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6 minutes ago, Don Quixote said:

With Suarez going down, it seems like the Reds aren't bringing up Senzel just yet.  Think it's just the few days for the extra year, or they still want him to play 2B?

It might be both.  Reading too much into 10 days of baseball is usually a fool's errand, but in this team's case?  Probably not.  They were projected to be awful and look like they may be even worse.  Whatever the thought process behind today's move, they aren't playing for this year.  And Jose Peraza sporting a sweet 200/200/200 triple slash with a 28% K would have me burying my head in my face if I were a Reds fan.  Small sample?  Sure, but it's making 2017 look a lot more believable than 2016.  Senzel may be up next week, but it could be to start along side Blandino while moving Peraza to the bench.

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On 4/7/2018 at 11:51 PM, HellToupee said:

I’m in the minority here on this but , meh. I’m not a believer 

I'm usually a collar tugger when it comes to high K:BB guys, but I think the adjustments he made this offseason have some validity.  Are they going to play him though?  They've got some lefties coming up this week, so Joyce may ride the bench but two of them are in the NL putting Davis out there instead of (possibly) Barreto.

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On 4/9/2018 at 10:48 AM, Don Quixote said:

With Suarez going down, it seems like the Reds aren't bringing up Senzel just yet.  Think it's just the few days for the extra year, or they still want him to play 2B?

Edit: Senzel moved to 3b in Louisville lineup today  Looks like he will be up soon for Suarez never mind what I wrote below  

 

 

It could be until super 2 imo. I have no idea why 2b and not SS considering Scooter is cheap and they usually bat him cleanup (first yesterday). He’s obviously one of the best hitters on this sorry team and I don’t know what even makes Peraza a major leaguer.  

They might as well wait though. The GM admitted (for a 4th straight year) that they aren’t playing for 2018. 

Edited by cheese

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12 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

Profar's never giving Odor 2B back, right?

I think the real question is if you'll even be able to tell them apart.

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4 minutes ago, Epic Problem said:

I think the real question is if you'll even be able to tell them apart.

I think Profar has more walks this season than Odor does in his career.

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On 4/9/2018 at 9:04 PM, MAC_32 said:

Robles is dead now too.

Hyperextended elbow. Hopefully not too bad.

Very bad timing too. He seemed like he was about to get red hot and Eaton's going on the DL. 

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Just now, Northern Voice said:

Nick Pivetta looks legit to me. Canada building up that WBC rotation.

I dumped him after one start because I didn't want to deal with Kapler :bag:

 

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

I dumped him after one start because I didn't want to deal with Kapler :bag:

 

I have him in 3 leagues but haven't had the guts to actually start him yet, that should probably change.

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1 hour ago, Northern Voice said:
1 hour ago, MAC_32 said:

I dumped him after one start because I didn't want to deal with Kapler :bag:

 

I have him in 3 leagues but haven't had the guts to actually start him yet, that should probably change.

SPs are fully stretched out now so Philadelphia's pitch counts are increasing.  Nola threw 103 today crusing though 8IP but Ben Lively also threw 100 yesterday with less success.

The jury is out on whether Kapler's pitching usage is really going to differ from the rest of the league.  I wouldn't consider that as a factor unless it becomes one.  Pivetta will get favorable matchups in the NL East.  If you aren't going to stream him against Miami, he's just taking up a roster slot.

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11 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

Nick Pivetta looks legit to me. Canada building up that WBC rotation.

Ironic if he ends up being the best of all the Philly dump-trade acquisitions (acquired for Papelbon).

For Giles they got Vince Vazquez and Mark Appel :thumbdown:

For Hamels they got Jorge Alfaro, Jake Thompson, and Nick Williams :thumbdown: (thought Alfaro is growing on me).

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