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Smack Tripper

2018 Sleepers, Midseason Callups and Breakouts...

481 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Eephus said:

This year more than ever, I'd like to try to get 30 SBs total from the three MIF slots.  DeJong offers nothing in that category.

To me, more importantly is to determine how many SBs won the cat last year? What were the avg and median? I don't care where I get them as long as I get all I need. 

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10 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

To me, more importantly is to determine how many SBs won the cat last year? What were the avg and median? I don't care where I get them as long as I get all I need. 

True, there are multiple paths to compete in SBs.  But all other things being equal, getting 15 SBs from your MI slot has more roto value than the 20 HRs that DeJong will provide.

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Eephus said:

True, there are multiple paths to compete in SBs.  But all other things being equal, getting 15 SBs from your MI slot has more roto value than the 20 HRs that DeJong will provide.

In a 14 team 5x5 5OF roto, What do you think  the median will be? 75-80?

 

 

Edited by cosjobs

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15 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

In a 14 team 5x5 5OF roto, What do you think  the median will be? 75-80?

 

 

That seems low.  I think it'll take 120 or thereabouts to finish in the top half.

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4 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

I'm gun shy with High K/low BB power bats, especially ones with a limited track record.  He hasn't been all that cheap either.  Compare him to Eugenio Suarez who is 50 picks cheaper, buys walks, has comparable power, and a track record.

I should add, this was for a points league so I chase the power, but you make sense.  I could easily see him pulling a Jedd Gyrko sophomore season.  I grabbed him around pick 60 that year though.  But 25 homers in 108 games got my attention

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2 hours ago, Eephus said:

That seems low.  I think it'll take 120 or thereabouts to finish in the top half.

So with 2UTs and 2IFs, that's about 9.25 steals pp? I had forgotten to add those four.

I think Hrs will be what 180 or so to the median? maybe 13 pp?

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Posted (edited)

3 hours ago, cosjobs said:

So with 2UTs and 2IFs, that's about 9.25 steals pp? I had forgotten to add those four.

I think Hrs will be what 180 or so to the median? maybe 13 pp?

This CBS article puts the HR median at ~300.  It also confirms my 120 SB target so I think it's credible. :thumbup:

But I didn't consciously track homers while drafting, maybe I should have.  SBs are a lot more scarce and it seems harder these days to chase them in-season.

Edited by Eephus
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6 hours ago, Eephus said:

This CBS article puts the HR median at ~300.  It also confirms my 120 SB target so I think it's credible. :thumbup:

But I didn't consciously track homers while drafting, maybe I should have.  SBs are a lot more scarce and it seems harder these days to chase them in-season.

Sort based on SB on steamer 600 projections. It's a who's who of players you never heard of and never will again. 

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15 hours ago, cosjobs said:

In a 14 team 5x5 5OF roto, What do you think  the median will be? 75-80?

 

 

Last year in Pie, 168 won the cat. 3rd place was 150

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19 hours ago, Eephus said:

That seems low.  I think it'll take 120 or thereabouts to finish in the top half.

So draft Dee Gordon and B. Hamilton and you are basically done?

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59 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Will eloy get a shot this year? 

He has less than 100 ABs above A ball.   He's on the 40 man so he'll probably get a September call up but anything more than that will depend on him proving he's ready by dominating AA/AAA and the White Sox being in contention in July/August.

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I like Jake Bauers in Tampa.  He doesn't have the upside of some of the sexier prospects but he has full years at AA and AAA under his belt.  He's almost a sure bet for a call-up once the Super Two deadline passes in early June. 

Bauers doesn't have great power but he should be positive in OBP and was 20/23 in SBs last year in AAA.  There's not a lot of talent blocking him at the big league level.

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With Martin Prado injured again, Brian Anderson will open the year at 3B for the Marlins.  Anderson hit 22 HRs in AA/AAA last year and held his own in a late year callup (.262/.337/.369).  This is his age 25 season and he has nothing still to prove in the minors. 

He's probably only a deep league option until he proves his power breakout last season is legit.  There will be cheap counting stats available in Miami this year.

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On 3/16/2018 at 8:59 AM, Eephus said:

Improved analytics also play a role.  Average success rates have been in the 70-75% range for a long time.  Even peak Rickey got thrown out 15% of the time.  There are some situations where the risk/reward of the extra base doesn't make sense.

Love me some “peak Rickey”

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I'm trying to pick up Triston McKenzie, SP for Cleveland. He needs to add some weight to his frame and he might not even be called up this year but his stuff is legit. Definite future #1 or #2 pitcher. 

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Last call for alcohol before this weekends drafts.  What do you got?

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It's digging deep, but I like Aaron Altherr, Franklin Barreto, Andrew Toles, Chris Owings, and Wimer Flores in the end game.

All of them could still open the season as bench players or in the minors, but they all don't have big hurdles in front of them and are 4-5 category contributors with full time work.  They're also easy to pull the plug on quickly (or even before the season starts) if they aren't getting playing time.  I hate waiting around on guys I know are starting in the minors and would rather speculate on these types.

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Aaron Sanchez appears to be of particular value 

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I'm ready to endorse Blake Swihart in 2 catcher leegs. Post-hype sleeper making the roster and swinging a hot bat. He won't play any catcher, but he's been getting time at 1st, 3rd, and LF too, so lots of opportunities. Not hard to envision him taking AB's from Hanley / Moreland / JBJ. He can most likely be grabbed in the last round (or waiver wire) too.

PS - Eephus' pick of Vogelbach is looking pretty good too. I liked him last year, but wasn't paying much attention after getting burned.

 

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45 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

I'm ready to endorse Blake Swihart in 2 catcher leegs. Post-hype sleeper making the roster and swinging a hot bat. He won't play any catcher, but he's been getting time at 1st, 3rd, and LF too, so lots of opportunities. Not hard to envision him taking AB's from Hanley / Moreland / JBJ. He can most likely be grabbed in the last round (or waiver wire) too.

PS - Eephus' pick of Vogelbach is looking pretty good too. I liked him last year, but wasn't paying much attention after getting burned.

 

Zero chance of actually taking PT away from JBJ. An odd day off from him yes. Moreland and Hanley , sure

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1 hour ago, HellToupee said:

Zero chance of actually taking PT away from JBJ. An odd day off from him yes. Moreland and Hanley , sure

Unlikely, but these are the type of hot taeks that get bumped in July. 

Bradley is a flawed batter. If he continues to regress like he did last year, its not out of the question that someone else gets the starts and Bradley becomes the defensive replacement. 

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59 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

Unlikely, but these are the type of hot taeks that get bumped in July. 

Bradley is a flawed batter. If he continues to regress like he did last year, its not out of the question that someone else gets the starts and Bradley becomes the defensive replacement. 

I wouldn't put it at 0% more like 10%. They have other options to play CF so I could see them benching JBJ for a stretch if he goes into a prolonged slump. Sox catchers bats are meh at best I could see Swihart getting some time behind the plate, if for no other reason than to show he can still do it to potential trade partners. 

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9 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Aaron Sanchez appears to be of particular value 

Agreed. Had him targeted. Was able to get him in my weekly (pick 155), just missed in my daily. While I would much rather have him in my daily. (In weekly, I can foresee double start weeks lost due to one of those starts being Yankee / Red Sox matchups happening all too frequently) I'm still happy with where I got him.

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On 3/16/2018 at 3:36 PM, MAC_32 said:

I'm gun shy with High K/low BB power bats, especially ones with a limited track record.  He hasn't been all that cheap either.  Compare him to Eugenio Suarez who is 50 picks cheaper, buys walks, has comparable power, and a track record.

 

On 3/14/2018 at 9:56 AM, E-Z Glider said:

1B - Yonder Alonso - swing adjustment guy playing in a better ballpark and lineup. 

2B - Cesar Hernandez - OBP stud who will score a ton, swipe a bunch of bags, and even pop a few.

SS - Jorge Polanco - from August on last year, he was on a 30HR/20SB pace.

3B - Matt Chapman - tons of power and knows how to take a walk. superior D keeps him on the field. 40HR potential.

OF - Schwarbs - post-hype breakout, best shape of his life and ready to finally deliver.

OF - Odubel Herrara - should pile up stats hitting 2nd or 3rd. OK, I really just love his zany antics on the field.

OF - Cameron Maybin - going very late for a guy that could swipe 30 and pop a few.

SP - Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray, Tyler Chatwood - I like all of these guys to turn a profit.

RP - Brad Boxberger - all the tea-leaves point to Archie going back to the Andrew Miller / multi-inning role. 

RP - AJ Ramos - already being called the "co-closer" and Familia is hurt.

tremendous info in this thread, but now 1.5 drafts into it, great info in both these, Suarez is a great call

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"SS - Jorge Polanco - from August on last year, he was on a 30HR/20SB pace."

 Now we know why :mellow:

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I like Mike Clevinger a lot this year. Good team, bad division, 10 + K/9.

It appears that based on where he's going, I'm taking yet another ride on the Mike Zunino roller coaster.

Trevor Story seems to be going later than he should too.

Schwarber's been mentioned but he went really late (to me) in my draft tonight.

Jose Martinez seems like he'll find his way to lots of AB's.

Dustin Fowler has the opportunity.

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9 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

I like Mike Clevinger a lot this year. Good team, bad division, 10 + K/9.

When he wasn't jerked around with his spot in the rotation and he found a groove last year he was dominant.  Based on the comments out of spring training I suspect he's going to get a couple of months to prove that was no fluke.

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12 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

I like Mike Clevinger a lot this year. Good team, bad division, 10 + K/9.

 

3 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

When he wasn't jerked around with his spot in the rotation and he found a groove last year he was dominant.  Based on the comments out of spring training I suspect he's going to get a couple of months to prove that was no fluke.

I thought I was going to be able to get him cheap in an auction H2H points league that has K's at a premium.  I thought wrong.  His price went sky high.  Word may be out on him but I agree that I think he will be really good this year (especially in a format that favors K's).

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On 3/13/2018 at 9:42 PM, Eephus said:

Dan Vogelbach, the fat kid with a career MLB line of .175/.250/.200 has been having a torrid spring.  My normal reaction would be to ignore the pheeenom but the Mariners' 1B Ryon Healy just started hitting off a tee following hand surgery and their DH Nelson Cruz was removed from today's game with a strained quad.

Vogelbach's primary camp competition Mike Fox hasn't been hitting either.  Unfortunately, Fox is a rule 5 guy and Vogelbach has an option remaining but c'mon, you can't send down a guy batting 444/.571/.852 this spring.

Looks like Healy might be ready now after all and Servais said today that the Mariners "acquired Healy to be [the] everyday first baseman." Bad news for the fat kid.

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7 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

Looks like Healy might be ready now after all and Servais said today that the Mariners "acquired Healy to be [the] everyday first baseman." Bad news for the fat kid.

I'm skeptical whenever a player beats the projected clock to return, but especially when it comes to Mets - so I'm doubly worried about Conforto.

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On 3/14/2018 at 6:14 AM, HellToupee said:
On 3/13/2018 at 6:42 PM, Eephus said:

Here's my deep sleeper and I'm not responsible for it when it inevitably fizzles. 

Dan Vogelbach, the fat kid with a career MLB line of .175/.250/.200 has been having a torrid spring.  My normal reaction would be to ignore the pheeenom but the Mariners' 1B Ryon Healy just started hitting off a tee following hand surgery and their DH Nelson Cruz was removed from today's game with a strained quad.

Vogelbach's primary camp competition Mike Fox hasn't been hitting either.  Unfortunately, Fox is a rule 5 guy and Vogelbach has an option remaining but c'mon, you can't send down a guy batting 444/.571/.852 this spring.

Mike Ford :nerd:

Rule 5 pick Mike Ford (and Mike Fox) returned to the Yankees

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Love Aaron hicks in steal leagues. Possible 30-20 guy if he plays a full season you can get in the 200’s

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14 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Love Aaron hicks in steal leagues. Possible 30-20 guy if he plays a full season you can get in the 200’s

We're all possible 30-20 guys

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12 hours ago, Eephus said:

We're all possible 30-20 guys

I wish I was, I could never get back in those pants 

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I thought for sure that Keon Broxton would stay with the team for a bench role/ backup OF and be able to work his way into the lineup somehow. Probably better for him to get more work in the minors to be ready in case of injury or to boost his value for a trade.

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2 hours ago, jamny said:

I thought for sure that Keon Broxton would stay with the team for a bench role/ backup OF and be able to work his way into the lineup somehow. Probably better for him to get more work in the minors to be ready in case of injury or to boost his value for a trade.

I'm guessing they kept Sogard then? He probably fits their roster better and like you said, Broxton will play in AAA. He wouldn't in the show. 

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Breakout/sleeper guys I targeted and ended up with multiple shares of...

C - Mike Zunino (specifically OBP leagues)

1B - Josh Bell

2B - Yoan Moncada or Brandon Drury

3B - Nick Castellanos or Matt Chapman

SS - Ended up with Andrus here a lot.  Not really a breakout, but continuation.  I like Amed Rosario here too.

OF - Gregory Polanco, Max Kepler, Randall Grichuk, Mikie Mahtook

P - Jon Gray, Dylan Bundy, Jordan Montgomery

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7 minutes ago, rodg12 said:

Nick Castellanos

:yes::popcorn:

I don't know how I ended up Gregory Polanco-less everywhere, but - so it goes.

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