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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

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2 hours ago, groin pains said:

Any homers up near orchard park that can give us a better picture of the wind conditions?

It's pretty windy out there.  Consistent with a heavy gust every minute or so.  Overcast but rain should hold off for the most part.

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2 hours ago, groin pains said:

Any homers up near orchard park that can give us a better picture of the wind conditions?

Reports of sideways rain, big gusts of wind, and reports of punters warming up punting balls that are “comical”. So....not good.

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Josh Allen completed 14-of-20 passes for 160 yards and one touchdown in the Bills' Week 9 win over the Redskins, adding 20 yards and a score on the ground.

Allen didn't need to put on a great performance to beat Washington at home, but he did save his fantasy line with a goal-line sneak that went for a touchdown. As a passer, Allen was solid, finding John Brown downfield and connecting with rookie RB Devin Singletary for a long screen pass. Allen will be an upside QB2 against the Browns next week. He's on pace for 3,306 passing yards and 20 touchdowns as a passer and 494 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.

Nov 3, 2019, 4:18 PM ET

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Josh Allen completed 22-of-41 passes for 266 scoreless yards in the Bills' 19-16, Week 10 loss to the Browns, adding six carries for 28 additional yards and two touchdowns.

Allen had zero turnovers, but not for lack of tying. He let the ball get punched out from behind inside the 10-yard line, but the Bills made a fluky recovery. Beyond that, it was another inefficient day lacking in big plays. Allen is not providing spiked weeks in fantasy, which was what his entire 2019 case was built around. The Dolphins do represent yet another potential eruption spot for Week 11.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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37 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

 

37 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

Beyond that, it was another inefficient day lacking in big plays. Allen is not providing spiked weeks in fantasy, which was what his entire 2019 case was built around.

Allen wasn’t great and is missing big plays that have cost the Bills badly all year, but he scored 25.44 points in my league which isn’t elite,  it isn’t too shabby either.

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The bills problem is that Allen hasn't been bad enough to grab a qb from this loaded draft class.  But he's not good enough to win with what's around him and I don't think an improved skill group will help.

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Just now, wgoldsph said:

The bills problem is that Allen hasn't been bad enough to grab a qb from this loaded draft class.  But he's not good enough to win with what's around him and I don't think an improved skill group will help.

So far I agree. Yeah, everyone knew he was the rawest QB coming out, but unless a major lightbulb goes off, he isn’t making nearly enough progress. Mediocre QBs are the absolutely most dangerous ones for organizations because they get sucked into wasting too many years before moving on.

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Fantasy football stats to know from Week 11

Excerpt:

Quote

1. Through 11 weeks, five quarterbacks total 50 or more rushing attempts – Lamar Jackson (115), Josh Allen (74), Kyler Murray (67), Deshaun Watson (55), and Russell Wilson (50). All five quarterbacks rank top-10 in fantasy points per game. 

Undoubtedly, this is the year of the Konami Code quarterback.

Jackson is on pace for 441.6 fantasy points, or what would be the most by any quarterback in any season all-time.

Wilson and Watson continue to do Wilson- and Watson-like things, ranking second- (24.3) and fourth-best (22.5), respectively, in fantasy points per game.

The two surprises would be Murray and Allen. Murray is on pace for 319.8 fantasy points, which would be the second-most by any rookie quarterback in NFL history. Meanwhile, Allen totals 343.4 fantasy points over his last 16 games, which would have ranked top-three in any of the last seven seasons.

 

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To be fair, he has played some godawful teams in those 16 games. He disappears against good teams. Or worse, actually, he self-destructs.

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4 hours ago, Truebluey said:

To be fair, he has played some godawful teams in those 16 games. He disappears against good teams. Or worse, actually, he self-destructs.

But to also be fair, he plays in a division with some really bad teams so that’s just part of the deal.

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13 minutes ago, kutta said:

But to also be fair, he plays in a division with some really bad teams so that’s just part of the deal.

He has also lucked out playing the Giants, Titans, Redskins and Bengals so far this season.  Those 4 teams plus the Jets and twice the Dolphins account for their 7 wins.  The Bills literally don't have a quality win yet this year.  In fact, New England is the only team with a winning record the Bills have faced this season in 10 games. 

 

Edited by Don Hutson

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6 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

He has also lucked out playing the Giants, Titans, Redskins and Bengals so far this season.  Those 4 teams plus the Jets and twice the Dolphins account for their 7 wins.  They literally don't have a quality win yet this year.  In fact, New England is the only team with a winning record the Bills have faced this season in 10 games.

 

Oh, I agree. I’m just saying that for fantasy purposes, it’s great to have QB’s who play weak division. 
Should be interesting to see how they do down the stretch.

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Bills QB Josh Allen has an interesting 10 game split.

OVER THE FIRST 5 GAMES 📉    

  • Passing Yards - 1,122
  • Pass TDs - 5
  • INTs - 7 
  • Rush Yards - 158
  • Rush TDs - 3

OVER THE LAST 5 GAMES 📈  

  • Passing Yards - 1,053
  • Pass TDs - 8
  • INTs - 0 ✔️
  • Rush Yards - 172
  • Rush TDs - 4

Josh has the ability to blow up as he did last week or he can go dark in some games. 

Lately he has been able to tamp down his turnovers which helps in leagues that deduct for negative plays.

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10 hours ago, kutta said:

But to also be fair, he plays in a division with some really bad teams so that’s just part of the deal.

My league doesn’t adjust fantasy points based on who teams play. All the points he’s scored count the same for me. The biggest question is going to be whether or not he can keep it up with the schedule getting more difficult. But since he came back from his injury last year, the only defense that he truly struggled to put up at least decent numbers against is New England. Otherwise he’s consistently put up 20+ points each week (in my league’s scoring at least). I think every other QB in the league has 2+ more under 20 point games than Allen over the last 16 regular season games except Mahomes. And even Mahomes has 1 more game under 20 than Allen.

Would it surprise people to know that over the last 16 regular season games, Josh Allen has scored enough fantasy points that it would put him in the top 3 fantasy QBs for any of the last 7 seasons?

Edited by GroveDiesel
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Josh Allen completed 15-of-25 passes for 185 yards, two touchdowns, and one turnover in Buffalo's Week 12 win over the Broncos.

He also rushed nine times for 56 yards. Buffalo's secondary did most of the legwork, forcing five consecutive three-and-outs while permitting just 82 passing yards to Brandon Allen. Josh Allen's touchdowns unsurprisingly featured the usual suspects as Cole Beasley ran a route over the middle of the field to open the third quarter with an 18-yard walk-in score; Allen's second was a 34-yard laser to John Brown, who beat Chris Harris clean along the right sideline. Despite being one of Allen's toughest tests to date, his rushing floor once again proved why he's an unequivocal QB1 weekly. He'll be ranked as such on Thanksgiving against Dallas.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Allen now has 14 games of 20+ fantasy points (in my fairly standard 6/TD, 1/25 passing, -1/INT league) since Week 12 of 2018.

Lamar Jackson has 13.

Russell Wilson has 11.

Patrick Mahomes has 12.

Dak Prescott has 13.

Deshaun Watson has 13.

Jameis Winston has 13.

Aaron Rodgers has 6.

Matt Ryan has 10.

Tom Brady has 9.

He has been the most consistent fantasy QB over the last year with a great floor. Some of that has undoubtedly been due to schedule, but his combo of arm and legs gives him such a great fantasy floor. 
 

It will be really interesting next year to see if perceptions on him change and whether he will again be a fantasy bargain next year or if folks catch on. From current perception, I’m betting he’s a good value again next year.

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42 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Allen now has 14 games of 20+ fantasy points (in my fairly standard 6/TD, 1/25 passing, -1/INT league) since Week 12 of 2018.

Lamar Jackson has 13.

Russell Wilson has 11.

Patrick Mahomes has 12.

Dak Prescott has 13.

Deshaun Watson has 13.

Jameis Winston has 13.

Aaron Rodgers has 6.

Matt Ryan has 10.

Tom Brady has 9.

He has been the most consistent fantasy QB over the last year with a great floor. Some of that has undoubtedly been due to schedule, but his combo of arm and legs gives him such a great fantasy floor. 
 

It will be really interesting next year to see if perceptions on him change and whether he will again be a fantasy bargain next year or if folks catch on. From current perception, I’m betting he’s a good value again next year.

Agree. He's been a pleasant surprise the last couple of weeks. Many were predicting a poor game this week. It helps when they get that running game going. I don't understand why they won't lean on Singletary more.

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Cutting down on the fumbles and INTs is key for Josh. He needs to learn to let the game come to him. Watching Lamar Jackson would be a great role model.

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23 minutes ago, Truebluey said:

Cutting down on the fumbles and INTs is key for Josh. He needs to learn to let the game come to him. Watching Lamar Jackson would be a great role model.

Agree on the fumbles. He needs to be more careful there. He is too careless with the ball when he takes off. He has been exceptionally lucky that he has lost such a low percentage of fumbles.
 

As for INTs, Allen has thrown 2 INTs over the last 7 games. Sure seems like he’s already made some sort of adjustment.

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1 hour ago, GroveDiesel said:

Agree on the fumbles. He needs to be more careful there. He is too careless with the ball when he takes off. He has been exceptionally lucky that he has lost such a low percentage of fumbles.
 

As for INTs, Allen has thrown 2 INTs over the last 7 games. Sure seems like he’s already made some sort of adjustment.

Yes, and he's had better results with the less INTs.  Is he learning to read the field better? Let's hope so.

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15 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Incredibly impressive against Dallas. Accurate, good decisions, dangerous runner....

Have seen legitimate improvement this season. Nice hold/buy in dynasty. 

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Josh Allen completed 17-of-39 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 24-17, Week 14 loss to the Ravens, adding two carries for nine additional yards.

Allen also lost a fumble and took a season-worst six sacks. Both his passing and rushing totals were his lowest of the year. Only the relative lack of turnovers prevented it from being worse than his It was Week 4 performance against the Patriots. Allen air mailed a pair of potential long first quarter scores — including a would-be 90-yarder to Robert Foster — and then never really came close to hitting another one. He did allow Cole Beasley to draw a long fourth quarter DPI, but it was a dubious call. The Bills were the recipients of a number of generous calls to keep late drives alive. Allen will be tasked with bouncing back in a dread-worthy Week 15 date with the Steelers.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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16 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Is this guy droppable?  I can't see myself starting him vs Pitt or NE

I dropped him to make room for a playoff handcuff.

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I dropped him too. Feels weird as he’s been my mvp but I needed to pickup a couple QBs as options (Fitz this week and Lock for next week). 

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Josh Allen completed 13-of-25 passes for 139 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Buffalo's Week 15 win over the Steelers, adding seven carries for 28 yards and a rushing touchdown.

Allen vultured Devin Singletary at the one-yard line for his rushing TD. He hit Tyler Kroft for the go-ahead score on a wide open red-zone throw with just under eight minutes remaining on what proved to be the game winner. Allen’s interception was thrown too high but should have been caught by Cole Beasley for his lone blemish on the night. The win moves Buffalo to 10-4 and clinches a playoff spot. Allen didn't need to do much in this one but this was a gutty performance. The Bills get another tough matchup with the Patriots in Week 16, where Allen will be a higher-end QB2.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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everytime we hear that Allen is a 'dagngerous' player he wets the bed.stop the insanity.Texans smoke the Bills in this one.

just stop with the 'Allen is the greatest thing since sliced bread' routine. he crumbles in big games. enough already.

 

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Posted (edited)
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Josh Allen completed just 24-of-46 passes for 264 scoreless yards in the Bills' 22-19, Wild Card overtime loss to the Texans, adding 92 rushing yards on nine attempts.

Allen got the scoring started on a trick play by catching a 16-yard touchdown from John Brown. The second-year quarterback had a great first half, made no mistakes, and gave the Bills a 16-0 halftime lead. However, he seemed to have some sort of switch flipped in his head late in the fourth quarter, taking a pair of mind-numbing sacks on third and fourth down to push the Bills way out of field-goal range while down 19-16. Buffalo eventually tied it and sent the game to overtime, but Allen tried to give this game away multiple times. He looked like a true deer in the headlights at times in his first ever playoff game. Allen had a strong sophomore year, upping his completion rate from 52.8 as a rookie to 58.8 and throwing 20 touchdowns to just nine picks. He also scored nine more touchdowns on the ground after eight in year one. Allen's arrow remains pointing upward. The next step will be winning a playoff game and making consistent postseason appearances.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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4 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Josh Allen is Not ready for primetime. can we put the genie back in the bottle now or what? 

 

He looked great in the first half but collapsed mentally in the second half.

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The moment looked too big for him but I’d still be pretty optimistic if I was a Bills fan. Allen is really young and came into the league raw. He has a lot of room to grow. 

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The kid is great for the community and says all the right things.  I have no doubt he really means them and is doing his very best.  However, in my opinion, JAG.  Wildly inconsistent and dangerous decision making.  Will experience and age help?  Would a true #1 WR help?  They have the 4th most money to spend this coming up off season. I guess we will find out but I am not overly optimistic but ready to be proven wrong.

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Evan Silva@evansilva

A few additional guys whose fantasy stocks I think have risen:

  • #Bills QB Josh Allen
  • #Bengals RB Joe Mixon
  • #Texans WR Will Fuller
  • #Eagles RB Miles Sanders
  • #Redskins WR Terry McLaurin

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I am definitely in the minority here but I am really high on Allen...IMO he has the "it" factor...no doubt he has some holes in his game but everyone knew that when he was coming out of Wyoming and I think everyone can agree he is much further along then Buffalo could have ever hoped...Allen is the type of QB who if he went to an unstable situation he could have really struggled but that is not the case...he is playing for a very good Coach who knows exactly what he has in Allen and is developing him correctly (and he is only 23)...in a 2 QB league I would be all over him and I think he would be a great foundation piece on a Dynasty team...again I know I am in the minority on him but I would grab him now while the price is reasonable because it could end up being a steal later on.

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