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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

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18 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

FWIW, I think Allen is definitely a major outlier so it’s not like people didn’t have reason to doubt him. 

Yeah, I don't really blame the analytics guys for doubting Allen.  The problem is that should have recognized that their model was never designed to evaluate a player like this.  They're used to evaluating guys who played in major programs, with solid teammates around them, against solid opponents, and with the benefit of solid coaching.  Allen never had any of those things.  For example, if you're looking at a QB coming out of Ohio State or LSU or UCLA or someplace like, and you spot some mechanical problems, you figure the school's coaching staff have seen the same problems that you're seeing and have done everything they can to fix them.  The fact that those problems are still there is a little worrisome.  You can't really say the same of a guy coming out of Wyoming.

In other words, you're taking a model that does a pretty good job with players from big time programs and applying it to a guy from a third tier program but with out-of-this-world raw athleticism.  That sort of player doesn't come around very often, and people who pride themselves on their mathematical acumen ought to have realized that the normal metrics don't automatically carry over.  This is a well-known problem with forecasting in general -- it's always dangerous to make forecasts outside the realm of the data you used to create your model in the first place.  

Quote

The boneheaded plays? Well, still too many of those,

This is just anecdotal with no actual numbers to back it up, but I think this is wildly exaggerated.  Every QB in every game throws interceptable passes, gets sacked, etc.  People grossly overreact to those plays when Allen makes them because that's the narrative.  I'd be surprised if it turned out that he was making "he'd like to have that play back" plays any more than other top-flight QBs.

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36 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Allen has thrown 35 TDs to just 3 INTs.

I don't recall the last two INTs from last year, but the one from this year was a complete BS call, so he should still be at zero this year. That makes those numbers even more impressive.

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21 minutes ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

I don't recall the last two INTs from last year, but the one from this year was a complete BS call, so he should still be at zero this year. That makes those numbers even more impressive.

True, but in fairness we should probably toss a couple of fumbles in there.  All QBs occasionally get strip-sacked, so I'm not going to hold that sort of thing against Allen, but not all QBs run with the ball as much as Allen does, so I think it's fair and reasonable to put the onus of his scrambling fumbles on him.

Obviously his ratio is still great of course.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Yeah, I don't really blame the analytics guys for doubting Allen.  The problem is that should have recognized that their model was never designed to evaluate a player like this.  They're used to evaluating guys who played in major programs, with solid teammates around them, against solid opponents, and with the benefit of solid coaching.  Allen never had any of those things.  For example, if you're looking at a QB coming out of Ohio State or LSU or UCLA or someplace like, and you spot some mechanical problems, you figure the school's coaching staff have seen the same problems that you're seeing and have done everything they can to fix them.  The fact that those problems are still there is a little worrisome.  You can't really say the same of a guy coming out of Wyoming.

 

I see your point, although as an aside I think that's a bit disingenuous to smaller programs. There are situations (e.g., like Carson Wentz  - at least the "old" version) coming out of a small program who thrived. Just like there are plenty of QBs coming out of big time programs who either failed in the NFL or didn't do much at the college level but thrived when they were coached at the NFL level.

As a Bills homer, you've seen him much more than most of us, but he may not have gotten "it" at the college level no matter where he went. 

Edited by zamboni

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2 hours ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

I don't recall the last two INTs from last year, but the one from this year was a complete BS call, so he should still be at zero this year. That makes those numbers even more impressive.

Yeah, but that pass also probably deserved to be intercepted anyway. It was a terrible decision and terrible throw.

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2 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Yeah, but that pass also probably deserved to be intercepted anyway. It was a terrible decision and terrible throw.

Literally every above-average QB makes at least one throw like that per game.  And they're usually praised for doing so -- something along the lines of "giving his guy a chance to make a play" or somesuch.  Allen himself has throw similar passes to Diggs this year that turned into big plays.

We're too acclimated to watching guys like Tyrod Taylor and Trent Edwards who won't throw to anybody unless there's no other player within three yards.  

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Just now, IvanKaramazov said:

Literally every above-average QB makes at least one throw like that per game.  And they're usually praised for doing so -- something along the lines of "giving his guy a chance to make a play" or somesuch.  Allen himself has throw similar passes to Diggs this year that turned into big plays.

We're too acclimated to watching guys like Tyrod Taylor and Trent Edwards who won't throw to anybody unless there's no other player within three yards.  

There’s letting your guy make a play and then there’s running backwards, throwing the ball off your back foot while off balance and falling away and chucking it straight up in the air. That ball 100% should have been thrown away.

But I agree with your overall assessment that his bad plays are probably on par with the number of bad plays from other QBs at this point. I mainly take issue with his carelessness running the ball, but since the first game they’ve barely run him at all which is great. Preserve the threat of him running without actually doing it.

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Ross Tucker@RossTuckerNFL

"In his last 15 games, Josh Allen has thrown 35TDs and thrown 3 INTs." Was stunned when @gregcosell

dropped that stat on latest@RossTuckerPod

. Full episode links:  LINK

-----------------------------

:jawdrop:

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3 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Ross Tucker@RossTuckerNFL

"In his last 15 games, Josh Allen has thrown 35TDs and thrown 3 INTs." Was stunned when @gregcosell

dropped that stat on latest@RossTuckerPod

. Full episode links:  LINK

-----------------------------

:jawdrop:

As much as I'd like that stat to be correct, it's wrong.  If you disregard the 1 drive he played in week 17 last season, his last 15 "full" games, he has 29 passing TD, 9 rushing TD, 4 INT, and 5 lost fumbles.  Still nothing to scoff at.

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Traded Andrew Luck for him and DK (about a week before Andrew retired). I went back and reversed the trade because of that. Still stings. I always thought he had great upside....credit to Buffalo for helping with his progress.

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In a real life draft of NFL players to start a team from scratch, he goes #3 behind Mahomes and Lamar, right? Maybe you could even make a case for him above Jackson, although that might be pushing it.

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10 minutes ago, TakiToki said:

In a real life draft of NFL players to start a team from scratch, he goes #3 behind Mahomes and Lamar, right? Maybe you could even make a case for him above Jackson, although that might be pushing it.

I don’t think he’s at 3 right now, but he’s getting there. Still think Watson should be there with a better surrounding cast.

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2 hours ago, zamboni said:

I don’t think he’s at 3 right now, but he’s getting there. Still think Watson should be there with a better surrounding cast.

I like Watson and I think he is a good QB but he is not performing anywhere close to Josh Allen and I don't think Watsons supporting cast is better than Allens right now.

Deshaun Watson 65.6% completion rate 1092 yards  6 TD 3 Int 8.4 aypa Qb rate 98.2 QBR 52.3

Josh Allen 70.9% completion rate 1326 yards 12 TD 1 int 10.3 aypa Qb rate 122.7 QBR 89.8

This is only a 4 game sample but Allen is playing much better than Watson. 

Russ and Rodgers are the only guys with better numbers than Allen for the 1st quarter of the 2020 season. Even Mahomes is behind him.

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As a Bills fan I’m enjoying this season so far, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

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1 minute ago, GroveDiesel said:

As a Bills fan I’m enjoying this season so far, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

I am not going to rank the QBs just based off of the first 4 weeks of the 2020 NFL season.

Just pointing out where he is at right now is all.

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22 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I like Watson and I think he is a good QB but he is not performing anywhere close to Josh Allen and I don't think Watsons supporting cast is better than Allens right now.

Deshaun Watson 65.6% completion rate 1092 yards  6 TD 3 Int 8.4 aypa Qb rate 98.2 QBR 52.3

Josh Allen 70.9% completion rate 1326 yards 12 TD 1 int 10.3 aypa Qb rate 122.7 QBR 89.8

This is only a 4 game sample but Allen is playing much better than Watson. 

Russ and Rodgers are the only guys with better numbers than Allen for the 1st quarter of the 2020 season. Even Mahomes is behind him.

I agree right now - I was thinking more from a dynasty perspective.

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Just now, zamboni said:

I agree right now - I was thinking more from a dynasty perspective.

Yeah I still need to see a lot more. But I wasnt dining on Crow for nothing. I would take Allen over Watson now. Would not have done that before the season started.

From a long term perspective Watson is kind of in limbo right now with BOB fired and not many draft picks for the new GM whoever that is. Coaching change on the horizon.

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Josh Allen completed 26-of-41 passes for 263 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in the Bills' Week 5 loss to the Titans.

It was, by far, the worst game for Allen and the entire Bills offense. Allen had two 2018-level interceptions and missed a few throws that he was making in the first four weeks of the season. As always, Allen did make multiple plays that only a couple of quarterbacks could make, including a rifle to the back of the end zone to T.J. Yeldon. For fantasy purposes, today's game wasn't enough to move him outside of top-five rankings, especially with John Brown expected to return soon and the Chiefs on schedule next. That game should have one of the highest Vegas over/unders of the week. Allen will be an upside QB1.

Oct 13, 2020, 10:01 PM ET

 

 

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Josh Allen completed 14-of-27 passes for 122 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the Bills' Week 6 loss to the Chiefs.

Allen's lone interception came in the final two minutes when the game was practically over but he wasn't on point before that either. He missed on his first four passes and was 6-of-16 in the first half. There was consistent rainfall during the game that could have affected Allen but the weather made no difference for Patrick Mahomes. Allen simply struggled to make tight-window throws and looked like his 2019 self. For fantasy managers, his two scores and 42 rushing yards on eight carries saved an otherwise quiet day. He remains a QB1 because of his rushing prowess and high touchdown rate. He should have no problem rebounding versus the lowly Jets defense next week.

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Two blah weeks in a row.  It was only a matter of time before he came back to earth, but hopefully playing the Jets next week gets him back on track.

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Are you all rolling him out this week? He has a tough matchup, but I'm still seeing lofty projections from most expert sites. 

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1 hour ago, Mag1234 said:

Are you all rolling him out this week? He has a tough matchup, but I'm still seeing lofty projections from most expert sites. 

No. I’m rolling with Tannehill instead. Also have Brees. Waiting for this to blow up in my face. :lol: 

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1 hour ago, Mag1234 said:

Are you all rolling him out this week? He has a tough matchup, but I'm still seeing lofty projections from most expert sites. 

I’m not but I also have the luxury of having Wilson as well.

BB has pretty well confused and stifled Allen so far in his career (something he’s done to most QBs). Until Allen proves otherwise, I’d have a hard time believing he’ll put up QB1 numbers against the Pats.

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I don't have such a good option. My alternative was Matt Ryan, who I didn't start (thankfully). So its Allen or a free agent QB so I guess its Allen! But I agree with you about BB and I expect a subpar game out of Allen unfortunately.

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18 hours ago, Mag1234 said:

Are you all rolling him out this week? He has a tough matchup, but I'm still seeing lofty projections from most expert sites. 

You probably know this already, but the weather forecast for Sunday is terrible.  Rain and 20+ mph winds with gusts over 40.  Just something else to factor into the equation.

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Apologies for my mea culpa on Josh Allen a couple weeks ago. He has somewhat turned into a pumpkin since then.

He was actually pretty good last week. Had over 300 yards with no INTs and woulda had 2 TDs if a) Kroft didn’t trip over the grass monster and b) his TD to Davis didn’t get wiped out by a stupid teammate lining up off the line too far

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2 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

You probably know this already, but the weather forecast for Sunday is terrible.  Rain and 20+ mph winds with gusts over 40.  Just something else to factor into the equation.

It’s a shame the weather looks so awful because it’s looking like Gilmore won’t be playing this week after “tweaking” his knee yesterday and not being at practice today.

Weird timing for that as there are trade rumors swirling around him and he has his house up for sale noted that he wants it sold by the trade date.

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I had not considered the weather. It seems like whenever I adjust my lineup due to weather I regret it. But indeed its another thing to consider. ugh.

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2 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

It’s a shame the weather looks so awful because it’s looking like Gilmore won’t be playing this week after “tweaking” his knee yesterday and not being at practice today.

Weird timing for that as there are trade rumors swirling around him and he has his house up for sale noted that he wants it sold by the trade date.

Weather is always overstated.  Not to be overlooked, but its never as extreme inside the stadiums.  Plus, it probably would equate to more running by Allen which is actually worth more point wise.  For comparison sake, Matt Ryan looked okay in that downpour last night.

2 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

He was actually pretty good last week. Had over 300 yards with no INTs and woulda had 2 TDs if a) Kroft didn’t trip over the grass monster and b) his TD to Davis didn’t get wiped out by a stupid teammate lining up off the line too far

Didn't Allen also have a TD wiped out where Beasley barely stepped out of bounds before coming back in to catch the ball?

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Just now, chad in Indy said:

Didn't Allen also have a TD wiped out where Beasley barely stepped out of bounds before coming back in to catch the ball?

Yeah but it wasn't that close.  Beasley was totally out of bounds.

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4 minutes ago, chad in Indy said:

Weather is always overstated.  Not to be overlooked, but its never as extreme inside the stadiums.  Plus, it probably would equate to more running by Allen which is actually worth more point wise.  For comparison sake, Matt Ryan looked okay in that downpour last night.

Didn't Allen also have a TD wiped out where Beasley barely stepped out of bounds before coming back in to catch the ball?

Rain is usually overstated. High winds can be a tremendous problem for passing. Last year the Bills played the Eagles in a monsoon and it was a totally disaster for Allen and the Buffalo offense while the Eagles ran all over them.

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Josh Allen completed 11-of-18 passes for 154 yards and an interception in the Bills' Week 8 win over the Patriots, adding 10 carries for 23 yards and a touchdown.

Allen wasn't able to get much going versus the New England defense but he did average 8.6 yards per attempt and find the end zone on the ground. The Bills' rushing attack was unstoppable on Sunday leading to throw a season-low number of pass attempts. The Bills never played from behind in the game making it even easier for them to lean on the run. Outside of his interception, Allen was modestly efficient and showed off his rushing upside. He may not sustain his production from early in the season but Allen still projects as a QB1 for the rest of the season.

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman

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MVP is always going to be driven by stats, but if the award were ever changed to be literally MOST VALUABLE, seeing how Bills Mafia is rallying around Allen right now it is hard to make an argument that there is a player in the league that means more to his team, city, or fan base. 

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Josh Allen completed 32-of-49 passes for 284 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in Buffalo's 32-30 Week 10 loss to the Cardinals.

The final review of Allen's performance would vary depending on when someone tuned in. He nearly threw five interceptions through the first three quarters, missing Cole Beasley (11/109/1) and Stefon Diggs (10/93/1) for a handful of wide-open opportunities. With just three minutes remaining and the Bills trailing 26-23, though, Allen nixed checking down to Zack Moss and instead scrambled around and eventually lasered the go-ahead touchdown to Diggs 21 yards downfield. Buffalo only fell to 7-3 because DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray connected on a miraculous 43-yard Hail Mary over three defenders last-second. Allen still became just the third quarterback in league history with at least 20 passing touchdowns and five rushing scores in consecutive seasons. He'll again rank as a top-five quarterback against Los Angeles' crumbling secondary in Week 11.

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman
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