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squistion

2020 Presidential Election Thread

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Tim Cook subtly talking #### about Facebook and Amazon today, love it.  Can’t wait to watch his interview on Friday on MSNBC.

Edited by dschuler

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The #1 political issue in the nation is loss of trust in government and no leadership at all in government.  Trump's approval is down, but the approval rating of any possible democrat challenger isn't going to be very good either.  People feel their vote matters less than ever.  The people are angry and upset.  There is no candidate that can bring the people together.

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30 minutes ago, Ditka Butkus said:

U.S. House of Representative...Scott Taylor.....

He’s a Trumper- supports the ban on Muslims. Not a chance in hell. 

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4 hours ago, timschochet said:

He’s a Trumper- supports the ban on Muslims. Not a chance in hell. 

I don't think he supports a ban on Muslims...He is definitely strong on National Security/Immigration.. (due to his military background and his actual real life experience in that region of the world). I don't know what defines a Trumper....Maybe you can clarify that...Thanks

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14 minutes ago, Ditka Butkus said:

I don't think he supports a ban on Muslims...He is definitely strong on National Security/Immigration.. (due to his military background and his actual real life experience in that region of the world). I don't know what defines a Trumper....Maybe you can clarify that...Thanks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Taylor_(politician)

Taylor supported President Donald Trump's 2017 executive order to impose a temporary ban on entry to the U.S. to citizens of seven Muslim-majority countries.

A Trumper, (definition mine) is a Republican politician who supports President Trump on a majority of issues, particularly with regard to his anti-immigrant, anti-globalist agenda.

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But to be honest, DB, personally I can never vote for ANY Republican, no matter what level, until the day that Trump is treated as a pariah. They don't need to formally repudiate him but they need to regard him as they did Joe McCarthy after 1955 or so: as persona non grata. The anti-globalist, anti-immigrant agenda has to be eliminated as well, and the ties to the NRA and pro-gun extremists. If these changes never happen I will never vote GOP again.

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3 minutes ago, Calvitron Johnson said:

Worked out great last time there were polls.  They were spot on. ?

Nate Silver has pointed out repeatedly that most were in the margin of error, Mr. Alias.

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11 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Ask Hillary about how accurate the polls are

Trump did not prepare an acceptance speech, so he and his campaign thought they were accurate too.

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On 8/1/2018 at 0:29 PM, squistion said:

Nate Silver has pointed out repeatedly that most were in the margin of error, Mr. Alias.

Polls taken before a major presidential election are generally pretty accurate (as was the case in 2016). Polls taken two years beforehand when the nominees aren't even set yet are meaningless and only measure name recognition.

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On 8/1/2018 at 9:47 AM, squistion said:

Trump did not prepare an acceptance speech, so he and his campaign thought they were accurate too.

The most striking thing about election night was the truly dumbfounded and terrified look on trumps face coming out on stage to give his acceptance speech. You know he was already halfway through talks with a new media outlet or whatever scam he concoted to profit from his run. He had no idea he would even be in the realm of winning.

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56 minutes ago, Flash1 said:

I fully admit I don't know much about this guy, but I would love to see him enter the race.

Ben Sasse on Kavanaugh hearings

Sasse v O'Rourke 2020

Very well spoken and I agree with almost all of that.  I don’t know his policy position but I would agree it would be nice to have him represent the Republicans.

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On 8/1/2018 at 7:45 AM, squistion said:

NEW POLL: Biden leads Trump by 7 points in hypothetical 2020 matchup

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399820-biden-tops-trump-by-7-points-in-hypothetical-2020-matchup-poll

I am quite confident that the public's attitude about Donald Trump in November of 2020 will have no relationship to their opinion of him at this current time.

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

I am quite confident that the public's attitude about Donald Trump in November of 2020 will have no relationship to their opinion of him at this current time.

If it has a cumulative effect on public perception, then yes it could. His approval ratings have been gradually eroding and there may be a point of no return that is reached among independents or anyone but his hard core base that he can't come back from.

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1 minute ago, squistion said:

If it has a cumulative effect on public perception, then yes it could. His approval ratings have been gradually eroding and there may be a point of no return that is reached among independents or anyone but his hard core base that he can't come back from.

I think we're looking at a blue wave this November. After that, the two key questions become, how will Trump work with a Democratic majority? And how will a Democratic majority work with Trump?

Then there are 4 more questions:  Will the Mueller investigation indict Trump, exonerate Trump, or something in between? Will there be, between now and 2020, some kind of international crisis and how will Trump respond to it? Will there be a Republican challenger to Trump in the primaries? Will a progressive or a centrist win the Democratic nomination?

Until we know the answer to these 6 questions, until we see everything play out, there's really no way to know whether or not public perception will be lasting.

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

I think we're looking at a blue wave this November. After that, the two key questions become, how will Trump work with a Democratic majority? And how will a Democratic majority work with Trump?

He can barely work with republicans, there will be very little legislation. 

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So now that the 2018 mid-terms are over, let's turn our attention once again to the 2020 Presidential race.

What are your thoughts as to who will be the Democratic candidate opposing Trump?

Seems a lot of interest in Biden, but he may be too old. I doubt Warren will run. Harris and Booker look interesting but I am not sure how a minority candidate would play given the mood of the electorate.

How bout for a fresh face, Beto O' Rourke?

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Jay Inslee of Washington may be one of the frontrunners.   Washington couldn't pass the carbon fee initiative that he backed, but I don't think that's going to be fatal to a campaign.

He's 67 but youthful-ish, well-spoken and chair of the Democratic Governor's Association.  Washington has been economically successful with him as Governor, running a budget surplus.   His main focus is climate issues, but he's been good for education and has kept a legislature that loves raising taxes largely in check.   He served in the House of Representatives, and hasn't been part of any major scandals.  Has been a major Trump critic and under him Washington was the first  to sue to block the travel ban.

 

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Sorry to disappoint the fantasy of Hillary haters in the other thread (like Mr. Ham) but your favorite chew toy, Hillary Clinton, will not be running in 2020.

Despite what ex-aide Mark Penn says, I don't foresee any circumstances under which Hillary will be a viable Presidential candidate again. She simply no longer has the support of rank and file Democrats. It is not going to happen.

Quote

 

Daily Express‏Verified account @Daily_Express 2h2 hours ago

Hillary Clinton 'WILL return for 2020 presidential election' - shock

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1044151/Hillary-Clinton-2020-presidential-election-Donald-Trump-clinton-latest

 

 

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On 11/9/2018 at 12:31 PM, squistion said:

Seems a lot of interest in Biden, but he may be too old. I doubt Warren will run. Harris and Booker look interesting but I am not sure how a minority candidate would play given the mood of the electorate.

I hear pundits talking about Biden, but I don't hear it among the democrats I talk about this stuff with.

 

I think after looking at the 2018 mid-terms a Midwest Female would be a great bold to fill if a qualified, intelligent and articulate candidate comes forward. 

Edited by toshiba

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On ‎11‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 6:13 AM, toshiba said:

I hear pundits talking about Biden, but I don't hear it among the democrats I talk about this stuff with.

 

I think after looking at the 2018 mid-terms a Midwest Female would be a great bold to fill if a qualified, intelligent and articulate candidate comes forward. 

In the meantime I still like this California Female. :yes:

Kamala Harris at Glamour Women of the Year Awards:

"Years from now, people are going to look in our eyes, each one of us, and they will ask us where were you at that inflection moment. And what we're all going to be able to say is … We were fighting for the best of who we are."

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1062192191924326400 (video clip at link).

 

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On 8/1/2018 at 12:29 PM, squistion said:

Nate Silver has pointed out repeatedly that most were in the margin of error, Mr. Alias.

So he can try to save his ###.

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1 minute ago, gopherit said:

So he can try to save his ###.

Silver was one of the few pundits/pollsters who was telling everyone right before the 2016 election to put on the breaks for a Hillary victory celebration, as he thought a Trump victory was still in play due to the margin of error. He has never been one to hedge his bets to save his patootie.

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2 minutes ago, gopherit said:
On 8/1/2018 at 12:29 PM, squistion said:

Nate Silver has pointed out repeatedly that most were in the margin of error, Mr. Alias.

So he can try to save his ###.

No because generally people are idiots when it comes to statistics and mathematics and don't understand probabilities and polls.  I think his problem is that he is trying to market statistics to the mathematically illiterate.

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24 minutes ago, gopherit said:

So he can try to save his ###.

No...because its factual.  The people who continue to complain about polls are the ones that continue to show their lack of understanding of statistical analysis.  Also interesting they are usually the people that tout Rasmussen polling on favorability of Trump.

 

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538 was pretty spot on in their house and senate projections this time.  there was still some polling off in the senate races in the midwest, but that's not 538.

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41 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

No...because its factual.  The people who continue to complain about polls are the ones that continue to show their lack of understanding of statistical analysis.  Also interesting they are usually the people that tout Rasmussen polling on favorability of Trump.

 

Man you guys will try to spin anything.

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46 minutes ago, gopherit said:

Man you guys will try to spin anything.

If your only go to polling reference is the proven outlier Rasmussen that can only be characterized as spin.

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1 hour ago, gopherit said:

Man you guys will try to spin anything.

What spin?

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1 hour ago, squistion said:

If your only go to polling reference is the proven outlier Rasmussen that can only be characterized as spin.

I have never tooted for Rasmussen polls.

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On 3/24/2018 at 10:15 AM, lazyike said:

https://www.wokv.com/news/national/schwarzenegger-kasich-urge-gop-move-center-trump-era/eixqwcfflF3RfrWDE2VNuJ/

Two of the nation's prominent Republicans on Wednesday envisioned a future for the GOP far removed from President Donald Trump's Twitter blasts, where inclusiveness, a kinder tone and a willingness to work with Democrats on immigration and climate change shape the agenda.

"Arnold Schwarzenegger, the former California governor, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, another moderate Republican and 2016 Trump rival, talked of the need for both parties to move away from political extremes to address issues ranging from disparity in education to those left behind in a jobs-rich economy."

I know no one else is interested in this guy running in 2020 but I now feel i have someone I can endorse. I wish I had supported him in 2016 instead of Rubio. Most of you will see Kasich as a joke but I don't care.

If you want to vote for a honorable, upstanding conservative, Evan McMullen is your guy.  

 

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1 minute ago, squistion said:

Nate Silver‏ @NateSilver538 30m30 minutes ago

Most likely winners of the 2020 election, according to prediction markets:

1. Donald Trump

2. Kamala Harris

3. BETO

https://electionbettingodds.com/

:lmao: 

That website has The Rock with the same percentage as Paul Ryan.

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2 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

That website has The Rock with the same percentage as Paul Ryan.

Makes sense. Even if Trump were to drop out, Ryan still doesn't stand a chance, his political career will never recover from his spineless House leadership role.

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2 minutes ago, squistion said:

Makes sense. Even if Trump were to drop out, Ryan still doesn't stand a chance, his political career will never recover from his spineless House leadership role.

And pretty much symbolizes where we are as a country.

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1 hour ago, Bucky86 said:

:lmao: 

That website has The Rock with the same percentage as Paul Ryan.

Which one do you think should be favored? I’d give The Rock a small edge, but I think they’re pretty close.

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Just now, Maurile Tremblay said:

Which one do you think should be favored? I’d give The Rock a small edge, but I think they’re pretty close.

Exactly. Really shows how far Paul Ryan has fallen.

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23 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Which one do you think should be favored? I’d give The Rock a small edge, but I think they’re pretty close.

Does Kim Kardashian leapfrog The Rock if she runs?

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1 hour ago, squistion said:

Nate Silver‏ @NateSilver538 30m30 minutes ago

Most likely winners of the 2020 election, according to prediction markets:

1. Donald Trump

2. Kamala Harris

3. BETO

https://electionbettingodds.com/

I am very glad to still see Tulsi Gabbard on that list.

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7 minutes ago, toshiba said:

I am very glad to still see Tulsi Gabbard on that list.

Ivanka FTW

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Nebraska Democratic Party  💙  🌊‏Verified account @NebraskaDems 1h1 hour ago

The NDP State Central Committee meets next week in Ord, where we will vote on whether to hold a Caucus or a Primary for the 2020 Presidential Election.

Let us know your thoughts on the issue and how we can build the party by taking our survey!

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdYCeu9v8DBc2kQz0JxeVuyWt37qV7IZtsPVtTGZzMkOkc6Aw/viewform

Edited by squistion

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I think the Dems would be wise to run Amy Klobuchar for President.  She has moderate Democratic appeal, , is very smart, and likable.   I live in MN and most of the people here love her.  She has a much better chance of beating Trump than the too far left leaning candidates such as Harris, Sanders, Booker and Warren.  While we're at it, she's a better choice than Beto also.

ETA:  As a Republican and if I had to be satisfied with a Democrat President, it would be Amy Klobuchar.

 

Edited by JohnnyU
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