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2020 Presidential Election Thread

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MoveOn.org  poll:

Beto O’Rourke: 15.6 percent

Joe Biden: 14.9 percent

Bernie Sanders: 13.1 percent

Kamala Harris: 10 percent

Elizabeth Warren: 6.4 percent

Sherrod Brown: 2.9 percent

Amy Klobuchar: 2.8 percent

Michael Bloomberg: 2.7 percent

Cory Booker: 2.6 percent

https://front.moveon.org/

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Mehdi Hasan‏ @mehdirhasan 2h2 hours ago

“Elizabeth Warren has a track record of taking on the rich and powerful. Don’t write her off for 2020.” - me for @theintercept on Warren’s presidential chances, and her wider progressive record, in the wake of the recent Native American ancestry row:

https://theintercept.com/2018/12/13/elizabeth-warren-presidential-run/

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1 hour ago, squistion said:

Elizabeth Warren has announced that she's establishing an exploratory committee to consider a 2020 presidential bid.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/elizabeth-warren-launches-2020-presidential-exploratory-committee-n953151

Wish her well she seems like well informed candidate 

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1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

We could have our first Native American president folks. 

Interesting. Maybe the Democrats were expecting this. 

Brian Schaffner‏ @b_schaffner

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Brian Schaffner Retweeted The New York Times

Not sure Warren has a particularly good chance of winning the nomination, but her being in the race could help other Democratic contenders in two ways: 1) Takes some of the wind out of Bernie's sails 2) She'll be Trump's #1 target, allowing others to remain "above the fray"

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Listened to a little conservative radio talk show in the car this morning and the host asked the rhetorical question of how anyone could be dumb enough to vote for Warren after the NA kerfluffle. Questions like that are why we lefties believe that the right has a completely fractured sense of self-awareness.

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Stupid to reject Warren over the Native American thing...but I don’t really want her as the candidate. I hate to say it but I feel like her persona is “I’m the educated Harvard type and I know what’s best for you”- certainly Obama had some of this too, but he also was a great speechmaker with a lot of charisma. Warren is not, and I think she’ll be resented. 

Democrats should win this election easily but you never know. IMO, the key to winning is to recapture the middle. I know progressives don’t want to hear that. 

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40 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Listened to a little conservative radio talk show in the car this morning and the host asked the rhetorical question of how anyone could be dumb enough to vote for Warren after the NA kerfluffle. Questions like that are why we lefties believe that the right has a completely fractured sense of self-awareness.

Republicans expect Democrats to live up to the standards the Republicans used to live up to.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Stupid to reject Warren over the Native American thing...but I don’t really want her as the candidate. I hate to say it but I feel like her persona is “I’m the educated Harvard type and I know what’s best for you”- certainly Obama had some of this too, but he also was a great speechmaker with a lot of charisma. Warren is not, and I think she’ll be resented. 

Democrats should win this election easily but you never know. IMO, the key to winning is to recapture the middle. I know progressives don’t want to hear that. 

Even though I share her progressive views, I have been lukewarm about her as a Presidential candidate for a similar reason in that she tends to a have a schoolmarmish lecturing tone in her delivery which often turns me off.

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The child can't help himself. 

NBC News‏Verified account @NBCNews

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NBC News Retweeted NBC Politics

"You’d have to ask her psychiatrist," President Trump tells Fox News when asked if he thinks that Sen. Warren believes she can win the presidency.

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Rachel Maddow MSNBC‏V @maddow 19m19 minutes ago

I'll have the first TV interview with Senator Elizabeth Warren @ewarren following the announcement of her presidential exploratory committee today -- Wednesday this week (Jan 2) 9PM ET, MSNBC.

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4 hours ago, timschochet said:

Stupid to reject Warren over the Native American thing...but I don’t really want her as the candidate. I hate to say it but I feel like her persona is “I’m the educated Harvard type and I know what’s best for you”- certainly Obama had some of this too, but he also was a great speechmaker with a lot of charisma. Warren is not, and I think she’ll be resented. 

Democrats should win this election easily but you never know. IMO, the key to winning is to recapture the middle. I know progressives don’t want to hear that. 

Correct on all counts

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When someone does an exploratory committee, how often do they decide not to run?  Is it usually pretty much a done deal at that point that they will?

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32 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

When someone does an exploratory committee, how often do they decide not to run?  Is it usually pretty much a done deal at that point that they will?

I think its done - unless the fundraising is not there.  I think the exploratory committee is code for "Let me see how much money I can raise."

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22 minutes ago, BigJim® said:

Has the same problem Hillary had. Generally an unlikable personality.

I disagree.

But, then I kind of like her.  Not enough to vote for her at this stage.  But, I find her thoughtful and articulate - and generally a genuine person.  Hillary Clinton was like fingernails on a chalkboard for me.

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I don't know if she has the sense of humor and likeability to really galvanize voters by, what I see, using clever humor and ridicule of Donald during a campaign where the Dem candidate, whoever it may be, is going to be personally trashed on a daily basis. The Dem candidate must have the ability to get a huge majority of the nation laughing at Trump.

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2 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I disagree.

But, then I kind of like her.  Not enough to vote for her at this stage.  But, I find her thoughtful and articulate - and generally a genuine person.  Hillary Clinton was like fingernails on a chalkboard for me.

I don’t believe i’ve ever seen anything but the schoolmaster stern Warren. I could be wrong. 

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I find her generally dislikable as well to be honest. 

When she talks it's always extremely lecturous, lacking any humor or softness. 

I'd like to see us go a different direction tbh. 

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10 minutes ago, John Bender said:

I find her generally dislikable as well to be honest. 

When she talks it's always extremely lecturous, lacking any humor or softness. 

I'd like to see us go a different direction tbh. 

She is definitely a policy wonk (I kind of like that, albeit not necessarily for a President) - and I am quite certain, that if she had an opportunity, it was last cycle.

 

But, I think she raises issues that should be raised, and I'll give her an opportunity to convince me on the leadership characteristics on the campaign trail.  But, I am also of the opinion that the Dems need to find a "Uniter" - at least with respect for the 65% of the country that is not Trump's base.

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I'm generally of a positive feeling towards Warren, being a lefty myself. But is she the person who can make this election all about the orange man-child in the White House? And motivate all the Dems into coming out and overcoming the built-in gerrymandering of the states? I'm just not sure but I'm also not sure that the Dems even have a potential candidate like that. And if they don't, then that means it's gonna be up to each and every one of us to rally the undecideds and the unmotivateds to get out there and vote this guy out of the nation's top spot. He's unfit.

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Dems also need to avoid making the kind of mistake that people in the Shark Pool used to make debating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, a fallacy pointed out by Rud or MT (maybe even Dodds. Dodds!), I forget who. It was that we have a curious tendency to say that the best QB was "great" and all the others "sucked." That wasn't true about QBs and it's not true about the Democratic candidate pool. There are probably twenty Dems who would be better as the country's chief executive than the guy failing at it right now.

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13 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Dems also need to avoid making the kind of mistake that people in the Shark Pool used to make debating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, a fallacy pointed out by Rud or MT (maybe even Dodds. Dodds!), I forget who. It was that we have a curious tendency to say that the best QB was "great" and all the others "sucked." That wasn't true about QBs and it's not true about the Democratic candidate pool. There are probably twenty Dems who would be better as the country's chief executive than the guy failing at it right now.

There are way more than 20

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1 hour ago, roadkill1292 said:

I don't know if she has the sense of humor and likeability to really galvanize voters by, what I see, using clever humor and ridicule of Donald during a campaign where the Dem candidate, whoever it may be, is going to be personally trashed on a daily basis. The Dem candidate must have the ability to get a huge majority of the nation laughing at Trump.

I already expressed my concerns with Warren, but your last few posts lead me to a bigger concern: I don’t think we should overthink this, and I believe Democrats have been overthinking this since the shock of 2016. 

Donald Trump won with a straight flush. Everything went right for him. Could it all go his way again? Sure, but he’ll need yet another straight flush and the odds are against it. The Democrats do not need a new strategy here. They will win with a new candidate with the exact same playbook as before, so long as it’s executed a little better. The public has had its fill of Mr Trump. 

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27 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I already expressed my concerns with Warren, but your last few posts lead me to a bigger concern: I don’t think we should overthink this, and I believe Democrats have been overthinking this since the shock of 2016. 

Donald Trump won with a straight flush. Everything went right for him. Could it all go his way again? Sure, but he’ll need yet another straight flush and the odds are against it. The Democrats do not need a new strategy here. They will win with a new candidate with the exact same playbook as before, so long as it’s executed a little better. The public has had its fill of Mr Trump. 

Totally agree that Democrats win potus easily if they roll out a good candidate that comes across as a caring moderate that campaigns hard and doesn’t have baggage.  Warren doesn’t check the moderate or caring piece for me.  Plus some will question baggage box.  

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

I already expressed my concerns with Warren, but your last few posts lead me to a bigger concern: I don’t think we should overthink this, and I believe Democrats have been overthinking this since the shock of 2016. 

Donald Trump won with a straight flush. Everything went right for him. Could it all go his way again? Sure, but he’ll need yet another straight flush and the odds are against it. The Democrats do not need a new strategy here. They will win with a new candidate with the exact same playbook as before, so long as it’s executed a little better. The public has had its fill of Mr Trump. 

Agreed.  A lot of his base is going to watch the debates and hear for the first time about some of the garbage going on with Trump.  Fox will have a lot less cover to give him during those times.

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I would love a candidate to run partially on government reform.  Not drain the swamp - just agree to hire a consulting firm to reevaluate government organizations and expenditures and and divert resources and funding to the right mix.

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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

I already expressed my concerns with Warren, but your last few posts lead me to a bigger concern: I don’t think we should overthink this, and I believe Democrats have been overthinking this since the shock of 2016. 

Donald Trump won with a straight flush. Everything went right for him. Could it all go his way again? Sure, but he’ll need yet another straight flush and the odds are against it. The Democrats do not need a new strategy here. They will win with a new candidate with the exact same playbook as before, so long as it’s executed a little better. The public has had its fill of Mr Trump. 

Your hopes are not the same as mine.  I want 2020 to be the biggest landslide of our lifetimes.  I want a huge voter turnout that is screaming that the last few years have been abhorrent and never to be repeated.  I want Dems to take back a bunch of Senate and House seats and Governors and state legislatures.  I’ll be relieved but hugely disappointed if the Democratic candidate beats Trump in a close election.

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9 hours ago, John Bender said:

I find her generally dislikable as well to be honest. 

When she talks it's always extremely lecturous, lacking any humor or softness. 

I'd like to see us go a different direction tbh. 

She definitely doesn't have Obama's charisma, but I don't think she's as disliked as Clinton was/is.  I'm like Sinn, Hillary was just toxic (fair or unfair) but don't think Warren is to that level.  To some degree I do wonder if it matters.  If you haven't made up your mind about Trump by now then my guess is you are just looking for an excuse to vote for him.

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I don't think it's hard to imagine Trump turning Warren into someone disliked as much as Hillary. I'd agree with the sentiments of BigJim, Roadkill, and Bender about her. 

She's someone Trump's base could rally together against and turn off moderates/non voters and keep them from the polls. Only chance he has imo is to be up against someone with that combo again. I'd like to see a complete rejection of Trump ideals and she'd make me nervous about just winning. 

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Someone sell me on something I'm missing on Warren. I'll admit, when I hear the name I think about her crusade against banks. That's it. I've seen her do the typical angry politician thing asking questions at hearings, and expressing public outrage that executives at Wells Fargo were not held to account. I don't disagree at all on that singular topic. Yet, unaware of anything she has done other than banking crusader, I'm left with the impression Warren is a bit one-trick pony as an angry anti-business politician. I'm sure there must be more to her... so I did a search on Google, and see the Washington Post headline "Warren’s 2020 agenda: Break up monopolies, give workers control over corporations, fight drug companies." That headline was sadly reinforcing of my impression. A more savvy politician might in fact plan to take drug manufacturers to task, but would phrase it more artfully in terms of needing a healthcare overhaul, and drug manufacturing is one of many things that should be evaluated for improvement. Her fixated/demonizing negative tone is not inspiring, and will cost her independent votes.  

Also, one has to question whether Warren is intelligent or strategic in a political sense picking the one particular fight she chose to pick with Trump... her Native American ancestry. How on God's green earth does a potential 2020 Democratic candidate, with a universe of ways to put Trump in a box, orchestrate her own slaughter on that topic? Honestly, I was embarrassed for her going public with a stance that 1/10000ths proved Trump wrong. I'd almost call it Trump-ish to proclaim victory under those facts. It makes me truly doubt the judgment of this politician.

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Doubling down on the whole Native American heritage thing does show some poor political judgement. Such a stupid issue from day 1 that she should’ve just let go - you can’t let Trump get in your head like that.

IMO Warren is one of those people who *should* be a frontrunner because of how sharp and wonky she is, but probably won’t even come close to the nomination due to a lack of charisma & speaking prowess. Her 2016 DNC speech stuck with me because she spoke in between Bernie and Michelle Obama - the crowd was raucous for those two, but the energy in the room totally evaporated when Warren was at the podium. I have no doubt she would be a good president, but it’s hard to win a national election without generating lots of enthusiasm.

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35 minutes ago, msommer said:

No more septugenarians in the White House! That will include Warren

septuagenarian

Strongly disagree. Then again, I’m only 13-1/2 years away from being one myself. The iPhone is 12-1/2 years old, so not that far off.

BBL, almost time for my mid-morning nap.

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18 hours ago, timschochet said:

I already expressed my concerns with Warren, but your last few posts lead me to a bigger concern: I don’t think we should overthink this, and I believe Democrats have been overthinking this since the shock of 2016. 

Donald Trump won with a straight flush. Everything went right for him. Could it all go his way again? Sure, but he’ll need yet another straight flush and the odds are against it. The Democrats do not need a new strategy here. They will win with a new candidate with the exact same playbook as before, so long as it’s executed a little better. The public has had its fill of Mr Trump. 

He's gonna need a royal straight flush in '20. Dems gain about two million votes just on demographics (old voters dying, new ones eligible) and that means Trump will need converts just to get back to the popular vote spread of '16. More people have to change their minds in favor of Donald instead of versa vicey for him to win and I think I'm gonna need one of his supporters in here to explain to me what evidence there is of that happening. I had a sudden thought this morning that he could use the office to throw bones to every otherwise Democratic interest group but I don't know if he can get away with that and still keep the Red Hats roused up at the rallies.

15 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Your hopes are not the same as mine.  I want 2020 to be the biggest landslide of our lifetimes.  I want a huge voter turnout that is screaming that the last few years have been abhorrent and never to be repeated.  I want Dems to take back a bunch of Senate and House seats and Governors and state legislatures.  I’ll be relieved but hugely disappointed if the Democratic candidate beats Trump in a close election.

Also, this. Very much this.

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15 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Your hopes are not the same as mine.  I want 2020 to be the biggest landslide of our lifetimes.  I want a huge voter turnout that is screaming that the last few years have been abhorrent and never to be repeated.  I want Dems to take back a bunch of Senate and House seats and Governors and state legislatures.  I’ll be relieved but hugely disappointed if the Democratic candidate beats Trump in a close election.

You may have misunderstood me because this is exactly what I want too. 

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5 hours ago, caustic said:

Doubling down on the whole Native American heritage thing does show some poor political judgement. Such a stupid issue from day 1 that she should’ve just let go - you can’t let Trump get in your head like that.

IMO Warren is one of those people who *should* be a frontrunner because of how sharp and wonky she is, but probably won’t even come close to the nomination due to a lack of charisma & speaking prowess. Her 2016 DNC speech stuck with me because she spoke in between Bernie and Michelle Obama - the crowd was raucous for those two, but the energy in the room totally evaporated when Warren was at the podium. I have no doubt she would be a good president, but it’s hard to win a national election without generating lots of enthusiasm.

I've never thought of Warren as sharp or wonky.  She gives one-note populist speeches and gets into little Twitter-fights with Trump.  Maybe there's more there than just that, but I haven't seen it yet.  

This should go without saying, but obviously she's still better than Hillary or Trump.  I think she's honest and well-intentioned, which isn't the case for either of 2016's candidates.

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32 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I've never thought of Warren as sharp or wonky.  She gives one-note populist speeches and gets into little Twitter-fights with Trump.  Maybe there's more there than just that, but I haven't seen it yet.  

This should go without saying, but obviously she's still better than Hillary or Trump.  I think she's honest and well-intentioned, which isn't the case for either of 2016's candidates.

I have seen several interviews with her from before she was a Senator. She really is wonky smart. She knows her stuff. 

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What will Senate Republicans do if the polls next year show Donald pulling down the whole ship with himself? I don't see how Senate pubbies in battleground states can afford to keep riding a drowning horse. They'll have to dis-associate themselves somehow and that might be really tough to do and still keep supporting McConnell in the interim.

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2 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

What will Senate Republicans do if the polls next year show Donald pulling down the whole ship with himself? I don't see how Senate pubbies in battleground states can afford to keep riding a drowning horse. They'll have to dis-associate themselves somehow and that might be really tough to do and still keep supporting McConnell in the interim.

Not a lot of Senate Republicans from battleground states on the ballot in 2020.  Colorado, Maine, Arizona are probably the only three.

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13 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Not a lot of Senate Republicans from battleground states on the ballot in 2020.  Colorado, Maine, Arizona are probably the only three.

:grunts thoughtfully:

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