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2020 Presidential Election Thread (4 Viewers)

POLITICO @politico 2h2 hours ago

How does Elizabeth Warren avoid a Clinton redux — written off as too unlikable before her campaign gets off the ground?

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/31/elizabeth-warren-hillary-clinton-1077008
I don’t really want her but I think this is a little unfair too. 

I think one of the main things that people resented about Hillary was that she was considered the choice from day 1- she didn’t have to earn it against other candidates. Warren obviously will. 

 
She’s be great in a role where she gets to work on a cause. Intelligent, informed, etc.

Isn’t effective in a national campaign though IMO. One of the few front runners I think Trump could beat. 
Trump couldn't beat cadaver.  His disapproval rating on inauguration day was 37%.  it's now 54%.

 
Hopefully not...but her political negatives play right into Trump’s tiny orange hands is all I’m saying. 
Well, he's gonna be tweeting something sneering and dismissive about every Dem candidate. But it's also true that the low information older people particularly love "Pocahontas." 

 
I DON’T HATE WOMEN CANDIDATES — I JUST HATED HILLARY AND COINCIDENTALLY I’M STARTING TO HATE ELIZABETH WARREN

So bring it on, ladies! I’d love to see a female President. Just not Hillary Clinton. Or Elizabeth Warren. I am totally open to all other women leaders, but I have to admit that Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar are beginning to make me angry and I’m not sure why yet, but I know the reason will become clear soon, and I’m also wondering what they might look like if someone photoshopped their heads onto the bodies of prisoners and put them behind bars.

 
I think one of the main things that people resented about Hillary was that she was considered the choice from day 1- she didn’t have to earn it against other candidates. Warren obviously will. 
That had nothing to do with it for me. Her demeanor in campaign appearances was smug, and her smile is forced and creepy. SNL did a pretty good job cartooning it.

 
MJ Lee‏ @mj_lee 2h2 hours ago

News: Elizabeth Warren has hired Joe Rospars, who was Obama’s chief digital strategy in 2008 and 2012, to help lead her emerging 2020 presidential campaign.

More news: Warren has also recruited Richard McDaniel, the former field and political director for Sen. Doug Jones who has deep experience in Southern politics, also to a senior role.

Both Rospars and McDaniel are expected to join Warren’s eventual 2020 campaign. All of this as the Democratic 2020 contenders compete aggressively for top talent.

More details here:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/04/politics/elizabeth-warren-obama-digital-hire/index.html

 
Elizabeth Warren speaking before a group in Sioux City Iowa today:

"I am not a person of color." Says she's "glad" someone asked her about DNA test rollout.

 
Jonathan Martin‏ @jmartNYT 4h4 hours ago

NEW:

Biden is in the final stages of deciding about '20, told one ally over Xmas he's skeptical other potential Dem candidates can beat Trump & is meeting this week w Dem officials in DC And he's facing pressure to decide this month

In a conversation with one ally over the holidays, Biden said he was happy not to run if he believed there was a Dem he thought could clearly defeat Trump. But, he said, "I don’t see the candidate who can clearly do what has to be done to win"

The ripple effects of Biden running/not running: Landrieu, McAuliffe, among others,are watching him closely. And the Biden folks are feeling a little more urgency because Sherrod may go & would have some overlap w them. Keep in mind: two of Biden's top aides are from OH-IO

The pro-Biden argument from his allies is three-fold: he's the most prepared, he has the best chance to win bc of voters he can win back and in a "national emergency" election he'd offer a reassuring hand The anti-Biden argument is...longer: age, ideology, record, approach...

... “We are at time when we have a combative racist and often unhinged person in the White House and that’s not going to be answered with somebody who says: lets come together and lets heal and let’s all be gentle souls"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/06/us/politics/joe-biden-2020-president.html

 
Biden is delusional if he thinks the average Democratic candidate can't beat Trump.  I mean, he can't possibly really believe that.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Biden is delusional if he thinks the average Democratic candidate can't beat Trump.  I mean, he can't possibly really believe that.
I realize that it may be comforting (especially from a conservative perspective) to think that Trump only won because Hillary was a bad candidate, and that any "average" Democrat would surely defeat him.

But that is naive thinking, IMO.

Trump has the power to beat anyone, especially when he has the complete backing of the Republican party and all of its resources (plus the Russian government).

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Biden is delusional if he thinks the average Democratic candidate can't beat Trump.  I mean, he can't possibly really believe that.
It really depends who the candidate is.  I don't recall where you live, but Trump will not lose the South in the next election.

 
Sure its hard to see how Trump can win.  But you never know with the Democrats.

Let's just say that Cody Parkey and the Democrats have a lot in common...

 
The odds are against him again but of course Donald can win in '20. The fact that he has a decent chance is why Dems have to get this right. We cannot afford a lame duck Trump for four years, running amok with no fear of electoral consequences. Christ on a stick, if he wins re-election, he'll believe that he should be President For Life.

 
WI, MI, PA, OH and FL. He could lose the popular vote - again - but the electoral math is pretty cut and dry. This is the reality.
He WILL lose the popular vote again, courtesy of California and a few other populous states with heavy blue majorities. 2020 will indeed come down to Dems flipping some of the states you mentioned (I would put Ohio pretty solidly in the red column and move Arizona and Georgia into the group of contested states).

Damn right Donald can win again. But demographics are even worse for him next November and if the blue voters turn out like they did in the midterms he's going down bigly.

 
You guys serious? What is this, 2016 again?
Two important points here:

1) Hillary was the worst presidential candidate of my lifetime.  Trump was also terrible, but Clinton managed to lose to him so she gets the top spot.  A random Democrat would almost certainly outperform Hillary.

2) There was a stream of thought in 2016 that Trump would be more moderate/sane if he won, or that adults in the room would reign Trump in.  I strongly suspect that the abject trainwreck of this presidency so far will cause Trump to perform worse in 2020 than he did in 2016. 

 
2) There was a stream of thought in 2016 that Trump would be more moderate/sane if he won, or that adults in the room would reign Trump in.  I strongly suspect that the abject trainwreck of this presidency so far will cause Trump to perform worse in 2020 than he did in 2016. 
That's the question I keep asking myself: has Don won over more voters who didn't vote for him in '16 than he has lost by being every bit the Donald they didn't think he would be? Because if the answer is "no," then he's toast.

If every demographic votes at the same rate and breakdown that it did two years ago, he loses next year. He needs crossovers and/or a low Dem turnout.

 
That's the question I keep asking myself: has Don won over more voters who didn't vote for him in '16 than he has lost by being every bit the Donald they didn't think he would be? Because if the answer is "no," then he's toast.

If every demographic votes at the same rate and breakdown that it did two years ago, he loses next year. He needs crossovers and/or a low Dem turnout.
I would be shocked if there is a low Dem turnout. 

 
You guys serious? What is this, 2016 again?
Two important points here:

1) Hillary was the worst presidential candidate of my lifetime.  Trump was also terrible, but Clinton managed to lose to him so she gets the top spot.  A random Democrat would almost certainly outperform Hillary.
A Democrat could outperform Hillary by 5 million votes and flip 3 swing states and still lose to Trump.

I think that you are overestimating how much Hillary pushed people to not vote for her, and you are underestimating the ability of Trump and the Russo-Republican Machine to demonize any Random Democrat.

Think about this: you implied in your post that Trump was the 2nd worst presidential candidate in your lifetime. And yet even if he loses he will easily outperform all the big losers in the past 100 years (Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater, all the guys who ran against FDR, etc.).

 
A Democrat could outperform Hillary by 5 million votes and flip 3 swing states and still lose to Trump.

I think that you are overestimating how much Hillary pushed people to not vote for her, and you are underestimating the ability of Trump and the Russo-Republican Machine to demonize any Random Democrat.

Think about this: you implied in your post that Trump was the 2nd worst presidential candidate in your lifetime. And yet even if he loses he will easily outperform all the big losers in the past 100 years (Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater, all the guys who ran against FDR, etc.).
It would take some crazy breaks for the Dem candidate to get five million more votes than the Hilldog and still lose the EC. I've got a decent candidate doing about three million better but that should be enough. I still don't know where Donald gets the replacements for his three million voters who will have since died.

But Red State America fooled me once, I'm never taking an election for granted again.

 
The odds are against him again but of course Donald can win in '20. The fact that he has a decent chance is why Dems have to get this right. We cannot afford a lame duck Trump for four years, running amok with no fear of electoral consequences. Christ on a stick, if he wins re-election, he'll believe that he should be President For Life.
I’m more concerned with him claiming the vote is not legitimate or he won’t relinquish power - I may be naive but I don’t see any way he wins.  If the Republicans were smart they would try and get him out before the general election (primary him).

ETA: they’d still lose the WH but it would help them in other races, IMO.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I’m more concerned with him claiming the vote is not legitimate or he won’t relinquish power - I may be naive but I don’t see any way he wins.  If the Republicans were smart they would try and get him out before the general election (primary him).

ETA: they’d still lose the WH but it would help them in other races, IMO.
I kinda think that Don thinks that he has to run and that he has to win. Winning means even more power and fewer restraints than he has now. Losing means facing the legal music in multiple jurisdictions.

I would love to see a vicious primary fight followed by a Blue Wave in the general because it might squash the know nothing part of political America for a generation. But I keep seeing the Electoral College system keeping him close with the current voter distributions.

 
I’m more concerned with him claiming the vote is not legitimate or he won’t relinquish power - I may be naive but I don’t see any way he wins.  If the Republicans were smart they would try and get him out before the general election (primary him).

ETA: they’d still lose the WH but it would help them in other races, IMO.
I think if someone primaried Trump it would help the GOP hold the White House.   The Democrats still haven't fixed their messaging and will also face an electoral college problem that brought Trump into office.   They also don't have a compelling, electable candidate without significant flaws.   A relatively moderate conservative like Romney would solidify the support of the GOP and would win over a lot of independents that don't like the Democrats' shift to the left.

 
I think the pubbies are going to switch their focus from holding onto the White House to maintaining their majority in the Senate. The Supreme Court can't stop single payer. But the Senate can obstruct it for years, until the groundswell of public opinion starts costing them seats in some of those little red states.

 
I think the pubbies are going to switch their focus from holding onto the White House to maintaining their majority in the Senate. The Supreme Court can't stop single payer. But the Senate can obstruct it for years, until the groundswell of public opinion starts costing them seats in some of those little red states.
The way the map is stacked up for 2020 the Democrats have a pretty decent chance of creating a 50-50 split, which means the White House is critical.   

 
CNN‏ @CNN 29m29 minutes ago

BREAKING:

Former secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro, a Democrat, says he's running for president in 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/12/politics/julian-castro-presidential-announcement/index.html?utm_content=2019-01-12T18%3A05%3A56&utm_source=twCNN&utm_term=image&utm_medium=social

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1084155607442063360

Julian Castro at his presidential campaign announcement: "I won't be accepting a dime of PAC money in this campaign."

 

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