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KarmaPolice

MLB 2018

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

My 2 gpps scored a combined 142+ with Minor and Seager scoring 55.15 of that--nuf said. Did win the 3man so up another $2.90.

Both slates today are hot garbage for SP at least on DK so just doing 3man pickems today.

Pretty much. 

Still throwing $1 in early for the SE on FD so I can trot out one last Seattle stack for the Balt series.  Definitely hasn't gone the way I wanted it to yet (Cruz getting hurt didn't help matters), but why not try a 4th time.  There isn't stud bats on the early, so right now I have Gray in as a medium $ SP:  Gray Healy Moncada Escobar Segura Rosario Haniger Palka Seager

For the main slate, there are stud high priced bats in good spots, but the cheap SP options are even worse, so I am not sure what to do there.  I have a $1 SE placeholder in as Guerra and a Milwaukee stack and was able to Trout in:  Guerra Aguilar Nunez Shaw Fletcher Braun N.Williams Trout Yelich.   Just not sure Guerra is going to get the job done tonight so I am going to stare at this more and see if a cheap option starts and opens up more to maybe get to Nola.  

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I've used Trout a few times in the last week and I think the finger injury is still bothering him so won't be paying up for him until he starts hitting again. Since the injury he's batting like .220 with no extra base hits vs mostly suspect pitching. I guess for gpps he's worth a shot due to the high upside and lowered ownership.

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10 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

My 2 gpps scored a combined 142+ with Minor and Seager scoring 55.15 of that--nuf said. Did win the 3man so up another $2.90.

Both slates today are hot garbage for SP at least on DK so just doing 3man pickems today.

Ended up doing a $1 59man along with the pickem. Used Gray/Odorizzi with Cruz,Machado and Cubs/LAD that's currently in 1st---- help me sweat it out

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Knocked down to 2nd when Segura scored, also don't have any Twins or Wsox so hoping to at least break even. I needed more pts from Gordon before it ended.

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How'd you end up doing on that one, RW?

I whiffed on the early, and have 3 in the 3max on FD.  I am trying Nola + heavy on Milwaukee tonight. 

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Just now, Raging weasel said:

Finished in 3rd, $2 in $5.50 out so my $2 3man in the evening is with house money.

 

Just now, KarmaPolice said:

How'd you end up doing on that one, RW?

 

Nice timing!

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Finally a day with a nice selection of SPs. Degromm,Bauer,Cole and Corbin at the high end with decent mid priced options like Mikolas,Erod, Gonzales,Hill and Musgrove. Some super cheap guys in good spots may help get some of the bigger bats in play. I'll be using Pena, Kennedy,Lauer and maybe CC and Stroman.

I like bats from Phil, Hou,Cle,Seat,LAD,LAA, and Wsox.

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12 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Evening 3man probably toast, I used Yelich/Braun over Jesus/Peraza and we only have 1 other different player( I have Betts him JDmart)

Worst pickem score ever-17:X Still made .25 on the day.

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Finally a day with a nice selection of SPs. Degromm,Bauer,Cole and Corbin at the high end with decent mid priced options like Mikolas,Erod, Gonzales,Hill and Musgrove. Some super cheap guys in good spots may help get some of the bigger bats in play. I'll be using Pena, Kennedy,Lauer and maybe CC and Stroman.

I like bats from Phil, Hou,Cle,Seat,LAD,LAA, and Wsox.

I was just looking at the weather, and it doesn't look like many of the earlier outside games have temps less than 90 degrees.   Good thing is that Bauer, Corbin, and Cole are not dealing with that, and neither will DeGrom if they close the roof.  Bad thing is they are pricey.  If I play any, I will have to see if there is a cheap O in a hot game or something.  Bauer at 12K on FD might just be too expensive to consider for me.  

I agree with others as well.  If I was going lower, I wrote down names in the later games to look into:  Kennedy, Gonzales, Musgrove, Anderson.  

Just digging in to see what Os I like on the night...

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Anybody know much about F.Pena for the Angels?  I just saw that in limited action this season he has 14.2 swK%, and a 43% K rate to RHBs and faces a not great team full of RHBs.  This just stuck out more since I saw he was only 5.8K on FD.  

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Hmm.  after looking at SPs to target, it feels like I like this slate a little less.  Here are the main ones I wrote down going against bad SP stats:

Milw-L (but Yelich might be out), W.Sox, AZ-R, Clev, Seattle, Col-R, Houst.     So the ones I wrote down are mostly in bad parks and out of the heat.   I am not sure what to do with that info.    I guess if Yelich sits, that makes Milwaukee cheaper, so I could put them and/or W.Sox with a high end SP.   I like that both are on the road too.  

If you are playing Milw, don't sleep on Broxton if he is in.  2.4K on FD and looking at last year he had .203 ISO vs RHPs.  

 

They suck on the road usually, but Col is one that I will probably throw a couple into the 25cent pool as a WTF late hammer.  Looks like Hill is struggling this year vs. RHBs (.396wOBA/.290ISO) to go with a 49% FB rate and 50% hard contact rate.  Arenado/Story/Desmond all have ISOs of over .300 on the season.   Yikes.  

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49 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Anybody know much about F.Pena for the Angels?  I just saw that in limited action this season he has 14.2 swK%, and a 43% K rate to RHBs and faces a not great team full of RHBs.  This just stuck out more since I saw he was only 5.8K on FD.  

Don't know much more than that but I'll be using him vs Balt. Will probably only go 5 innings so hoping for 2 runs 6-8ks. I have him in my all or nothing pairing with Kennedy and Bats from Hou,Phil and Mil.

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17 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Don't know much more than that but I'll be using him vs Balt. Will probably only go 5 innings so hoping for 2 runs 6-8ks. I have him in my all or nothing pairing with Kennedy and Bats from Hou,Phil and Mil.

:thumbup:

I might look there as well if I want to try an expensive stack.  After I posted the above, I threw a quick LU together with Milw/W.Sox and Bauer:  Bauer C.Davis Moncada Shaw T.Anderson Palka Broxton Braun M.Davidson.   Don't hate it, and that is with the most expensive guy, so there is room to wiggle, esp if I do one with Corbin instead.  I might use something like this for my 3max gpp, and another just mixing and matching <3K guys I like,  and then other ideas like Color for the 25cent entries.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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That's similar to my lineup in the $1 59 man-

Bauer Gonzales Narvaez Davidson Moncada Valbuena Simmons Garcia Hernandez Calhoun.

Have this and 3 others in the .25ers

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Hoping to get back on track tonight - been a lousy week. Seems like every offense that shouldn't be scoring is, and every one that should be scoring, isn't. 

Kinda like stacking the TEX/CHW game tonight; Gallardo & Covey, implied total of over 10. 

Using just Woba & ISO numbers, some cheap stacks to consider: wrap-around with Mondesi & Merrifield/ KC, Meadows & Diaz/ PITT, Marte-Ahmed-Murphy/ ARI. Don't know how many of these guys I can squeeze in and still get Bauer or DeGrom.

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7 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Hoping to get back on track tonight - been a lousy week. Seems like every offense that shouldn't be scoring is, and every one that should be scoring, isn't. 

Kinda like stacking the TEX/CHW game tonight; Gallardo & Covey, implied total of over 10. 

Using just Woba & ISO numbers, some cheap stacks to consider: wrap-around with Mondesi & Merrifield/ KC, Meadows & Diaz/ PITT, Marte-Ahmed-Murphy/ ARI. Don't know how many of these guys I can squeeze in and still get Bauer or DeGrom.

@reel_smooth:  they don't have the stats, but another cheap option that I noticed as batting orders came out was something like Maldonado, Fletcher, Calhoun now that Calhoun is leading off tonight.  

Balt is also cheap and you could game stack this one with a stud SP no problem as it has the 2nd highest implied total on the night.   I just wish Trout was actually doing something.  I didn't notice how cold he was until RW said something last night.  

Other cheap bats I had written down to pair with a stud SP:

S.Pearce is on Bost now batting 4th for a 2.5K salary.  Hits LHP well if I remember right.

C.Davis is only 2.1K and looks like he is heating up.  Pena's #s to LHBs are atrocious.  

Marisnick is hot and is still only 2.3K.   Houst is interesting tonight since all but the top 2 are 3.1K or less.  Something like Gattis/Gonzales/Stassi/Marisnick is interesting and dirt cheap. 

B.Miller is leading off tonight for Milwaukee and is only 2.5K.  Broxton is also in there, but is batting 7th tonight.  I was hoping for a slightly better spot, but still might try it.  

Sounds really weird, but a 25cent big gpp idea I had was TB 1-3.  Kiermaier and Bauers are hitting well, and Bauers/Duffy combined for about 30pts last time they faced Cole.  Probably won't get there, but I noticed it.  

D.Cozens is only 2.0K, and in very small sample size has +.300ISO vs. RHPs.  

If he is is, D.Travis is a Toronto bat I use a lot vs. LHPs.  Has a .268 ISO vs. LHP.  Only 2.3K here.  

Gallo and Odor are 2.8K each and would fit in your Tex/W.Sox game stack idea.  

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@reel_smooth:  they don't have the stats, but another cheap option that I noticed as batting orders came out was something like Maldonado, Fletcher, Calhoun now that Calhoun is leading off tonight.  

Balt is also cheap and you could game stack this one with a stud SP no problem as it has the 2nd highest implied total on the night.   I just wish Trout was actually doing something.  I didn't notice how cold he was until RW said something last night.  

Other cheap bats I had written down to pair with a stud SP:

S.Pearce is on Bost now batting 4th for a 2.5K salary.  Hits LHP well if I remember right.

C.Davis is only 2.1K and looks like he is heating up.  Pena's #s to LHBs are atrocious.  

Marisnick is hot and is still only 2.3K.   Houst is interesting tonight since all but the top 2 are 3.1K or less.  Something like Gattis/Gonzales/Stassi/Marisnick is interesting and dirt cheap. 

B.Miller is leading off tonight for Milwaukee and is only 2.5K.  Broxton is also in there, but is batting 7th tonight.  I was hoping for a slightly better spot, but still might try it.  

Sounds really weird, but a 25cent big gpp idea I had was TB 1-3.  Kiermaier and Bauers are hitting well, and Bauers/Duffy combined for about 30pts last time they faced Cole.  Probably won't get there, but I noticed it.  

D.Cozens is only 2.0K, and in very small sample size has +.300ISO vs. RHPs.  

If he is is, D.Travis is a Toronto bat I use a lot vs. LHPs.  Has a .268 ISO vs. LHP.  Only 2.3K here.  

Gallo and Odor are 2.8K each and would fit in your Tex/W.Sox game stack idea.  

 

 

 

Have actually looked at most of what you have here and have stacked Jones & Trumbo in a LU as well as exposure to Pearce in a stack w/ Torres & Bird from the NYY. Also stuffing Broxton in a lot. Still contemplating Miller.

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7 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

@KarmaPolice @reel_smooth  just making sure you heard Degromm is out tonight. Adds Mia bats to cheap stack ideas.

I saw that and looked right away, but was surprised at the prices on the Mia guys.  All were pricier than the W.Sox guys, so don't know if I will get there.  Low owned idea for sure though.

Did I see that Teheran wasn't playing tonight either?

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Good luck, all!  Ended up doing too much, so we'll see how this goes.  

3, $1 3max.   all with Bauer 2 are W.Sox/Milw combos and one is a Wash stack with random cheap guys.  

One is:  Bauer Miller Moncada Shaw T.Anderson Broxton Palka Garcia Braun

$1 SE:  Corbin + a different variation of the W.Sox/Milw combo.  

 

$3 in the 25cent entries.    Got away from W.sox/Milw/Bauer here.  and went heavy on LAA, Color, Houst and did 2 good luck Seattle stacks.    Used Cole, Corbin, E.Rod, and Pena in these.  

Example = Pena Desond Altuve Arenado Story T.Hernandez Marisnick Reddick Bregman

 

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3 Nats stacks.  1 with E.Rod - oops, 1 with the LAA SP and Houst - they aren't showing up, and the $1 still has Bauer but my cheap guys aren't doing anything.  

Hopefully Houst or my cheap guys kick in to get the score up a bit... 

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Would have been nice if I had Broxton on one of the Wash LUs or not E.Rod, but Turner's late HR at least put me up $13 for the night.  

Ironically, the best score was an E.Rod Lu that had C.Santana, Odor, Rendon, Turner, Harper, Hoskins, and Turner that put up 247.  

Edited by KarmaPolice
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They weren't on my original list, but the Nats kept popping up when I was poking around on the savant/statcast website, especially the core of Turner/Rendon/Harper, so I thought - WTF.  Otherwise it would have been a bad night and I would have been all on Angels/Color/W.Sox/Milw.

Let's see what we have today...

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Maybe I am missing somebody, but I just don't see a cheap guy to try on the early slate besides the trio of Verlander/DeGromm/Skaggs.  

Looking at plate IQ, I wrote down Oak-L, Clev, LAA-L, Milw-L, Houst-R, and Philly.      Looking at the savant page, Votto, Duvall, Alonso, Brantly, and Valbuena seemed to keep coming up.  Couple other Reds were mixing in there too like Hamilton and Barnhart.  I hate stacking against the Milw bullpen, so I might just use a couple Reds. 

I think I am leaning Skaggs for the savings, since Verlander seems to be more hit and miss lately.  Is DeGrom dealing with something, and that's why he didn't pitch yesterday?

That puts me at 3.1K/player so not sure where that will put my lean for O.  Just doing a $1 SE here.  

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Main slate it looks like I am rolling with Sale and Maeda unless somebody knows anything about a cheap SP.  Maybe Trevor Williams is the cheap guy to try?  6.8K tonight.  

Looking at plate IQ I wrote down:  Bost-R, StL, LaD, W.Sox-R, KC-L, SF-L.      On the savant page, the Red Sox kept popping up, especially Moreland and JD Mart, as did Moustakas and Seager.  

Here I have 3 in the 3max again, and will probably use Maeda on all 3.  Then I have a handful of entries in the 25cent gpp, and will probably see what I can do with Sale and Williams.  

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Looking further, on paper Oak the team that stuck out most for the early.  Too bad they are at home, but still might do it.  Plutko has a 1.81 WHIP to LHBs, has the highest HR/9 for the whole day, and the Clev bullpen has been bad this season.  A few pieces are cheap, so I might be able to do that with Fowler, Joyce, Olson and maybe somebody else.  Also with a high WHIP was Romano vs. LHBs, so it will be interesting to see if Milwaukee tries Miller at lead off again.  

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Being on DK I have to use a 2nd SP and not really thrilled with the options. Going Verlander/Lopez, Skaggs/Mahle and Degromm/Helickson. Doesn't leave much money for stacking other than cheap Angels and A's so using a lot of 1-offs and random guys.

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39 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

For the main slate doing $1 59man and $2 pickem 3man . Going gpp mode and fading Sale (Felix/Williams) and stacking Yanks+Seat.

What's the payout structure on those 59entry contests?

Not a bad idea about Sale in this heat.  I was thinking about that as well after I posted.  I know he's been on a roll the last 4 games, but NY is better vs. LHBs and they are dealing with heat too.  12K on FD is a lot for a gpp SP.  Still might do one or two, but I think most will be Williams or somebody else and load up on bats, I think. 

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59 entries pays top 12.  12.50. 7.50. 5.50. 4.50    (5-6)-3.50  (7-9)-2.50. 10-12(2.00)

Not the greatest payouts(18% juice) but it's SE and only $1:shrug:

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I completely went against all I posted above and did the Miami SP and a loaded Wash/Philly game stack hoping for a repeat and low scoring games in the other spots.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I completely went against all I posted above and did the Miami SP and a loaded Wash/Philly game stack hoping for a repeat and low scoring games in the other spots.  

...and after I posted that all the other games started going off.  :lol:

Tonight I landed on Maeda in my 3max for all 3.  2 are Boston stacks, 1 is Dodger stack with him.  

25cent entries I have a bit of Stl ( I think 1/2 the LUs have a stack), 2 Seattle LUs, and I tried a couple with the W.Sox RHBs.  

 

Good Luck, all!

 

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Fading Sale and stacking Yanks didn't work out but it was a dart throw going in.

Mahle/Skaggs lineup cashed for 5th in the early .25ers but that's it. Down $1.24 for the day.

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Down a couple bucks on the day.  Managed to avoid most of the teams that put up 10+ runs on the day.  Try again today...

Don't forget about the wind blowing out in Wrigley.  Looks like it's projected to be 15-20mph again.

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Took a peek at the savant page and L.Valbuena stood out along with Trout.   Small sample size, but Valbuena is all or none vs. Gausman - 5 for 9 with 4 HRS and 4Ks. :lol:  Trout is 7 for 13 with 3HRs off him.  

also looking at the statcast 5 cubs  (Heyward, Happ, Schwarber, Rizzo, Zobrist) had an average exit velocity of 90+ vs. Lynn.  

 

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For SP I like Morton, Snell Happ and Peralta at the high end. Morton/Snell playing each other so win pts are a guess and Peralta is 2k more than I've been paying but should still hit value.

Cheap guys I like alot are Matz and Straily who are also facing off. Points per dollar I think Straily is my fav today.

For bats I also like the Cubs. I think Lester stinks and have stacked vs him often and it hasn't worked much so far. And last few times the Twins were in a great spot they tanked me too but will still have a stack. Tex and Tor should put up some runs today too.

ETA forgot about Balt vs beat up Angels pitching staff.

 

 

Edited by Raging weasel

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Looking at plate IQ and SP stats, I wrote down:

LAA-R, Balt-R, Milw-L, Mets,  Cubs-L was close, but then also adding in the wind and statcast data they are toward the top.  

Podcast suggested to look into Phillies vs. Gio.  I guess (now that I don't have premium) their $ content has reports showing 30day trends to highlight SPs to attack or hitters to focus on that might be over/under performing.  Basically they said that all of Gio's #s are horrible when looking at that for the last 30days.  

If you are playing DK, or the late slate, the other SP they mentioned being on those reports was Lopez, so they said to look into Tex more.  

Altherr is min priced on FD if he is in the LU.  

 

Others that had decent stats vs. a according the statcast were Castellanos, Bregman, Gattis.  

 

I assume the SPs to look at are Morton, Snell, Folty, Happ, Peralta? 

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3 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

For SP I like Morton, Snell Happ and Peralta at the high end. Morton/Snell playing each other so win pts are a guess and Peralta is 2k more than I've been paying but should still hit value.

Cheap guys I like alot are Matz and Straily who are also facing off. Points per dollar I think Straily is my fav today.

For bats I also like the Cubs. I think Lester stinks and have stacked vs him often and it hasn't worked much so far. And last few times the Twins were in a great spot they tanked me too but will still have a stack. Tex and Tor should put up some runs today too.

 

 

:lol:  again nice timing.  

@Raging weasel -  if you are stacking Min, Kepler is dirt cheap and has a .303 ISO vs LHPs on the year.  Could be worth a dart throw and might be less owned b/c of the L-L matchup.  

 

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21 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Huh, I guess FD skips over the W.Sox/Tex game unless you are playing an all day slate.  

And DK skips Pitt so no Taillon.

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Cubs LU is out, and they stacked all the LHBs at the top, and are cheap.  I think for my $1 entries I might just try 1->3 since all are  <3K, and then do 1/2 with Schwarber 1/2 with Rizzo.  

No Valbuena today, so there goes that idea.  

I also like to remind myself and others that Grichuck is another reverse splits guy.  He has a .305 ISO vs. RHP this season.   Diaz has .200 ISO.   If I am looking for a cheap filler, I take a peek at Toronto a lot and use Travis vs. LHP and Grichuck/Diaz vs. RHP.  

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Up a couple bucks on the day.  The day was saved by some late inning scoring in the afternoon $2 SE.  

Only hit 1 of 3 early because I was more on Zobrist and Heyward and didn't have Happ/Baez.   The one that cashed was a Matz LU and using him I was able to get Castellanos, Machado, and, Cabrera Bregman in there with my Cubs trio.

 

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