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KarmaPolice

MLB 2018

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19 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I have a habit of having 0% of the highest scoring team on the slate the last few days.  

Meanwhile Rendon and Zimmerman combine for 0 in my cash LU. 

Actually the Yanks did fine. Everyone had 16+ except the 3 guys with zero.( Rendon, Morrison, Descalso) 

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20 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Taking the day off, too hungover

Sometimes those non thinking on the fly LUs are best. ;)

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Not a ton of success today despite having more time to look at stats and stuff.  Still a ton of 0s by using guys like Bryant, JD Mart, and the Astros.  

I do see how I would like these 3-6 man contests more though.  Small sample size obviously, but those has a similar winning line as the gpps did and were just a tad over the 50/50s.  I also like that it makes it likely that you are the only person with 1/2 your lineup.  It makes it more interesting to watch a game when you know that you are the only one that has a guy vs. you and 500 other people in a gpp.  I could see doing a cash LU for $4-5 and entering it in a few 50/50s and one or two of those.  

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54 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

Tentative lineup tonight:

Verlander/Scherzer/Barnhart/Carpenter/Gennett/Seager/Segura/Duvall/Fowler/Granderson

Looks a lot like my lineup for a 3man. Originally had Gray with Thor and had Arenado with the savings.

Verlander Thor Barnhart Velbuena Scooter Seager Ahmed Pham Fowler Goodwin

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1 hour ago, Northern Voice said:

Tentative lineup tonight:

Verlander/Scherzer/Barnhart/Carpenter/Gennett/Seager/Segura/Duvall/Fowler/Granderson

Heavy duty SPs!

I went more studs and scrubs since a couple scrubs i love to use with huge power were going tonight.  Right now on DK I have:

Thor/G.Richards Hedges Thames Schimpf Arenado Valaika Harper Conforto Haniger

Edited by KarmaPolice

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I did an all day $1 5man.  Of course 1 of the dudes had to have a TB stack.  So his 3 players have about 80pts already.  

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I put in 4 25 cent LUs on FD.  Have to fire up those Mariner and Brewer stacks!

I also liked the 9123 Angel stack, and I sprinkled in some DBacks

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1 minute ago, Raging weasel said:

Looks like Scherzer was the way to go today especially on DK with the complete game and shut out bonuses.

Barring a Verlander implosion, I'm doubling up for sure, with a chance to do better in the big tourney if Seager/Segura (1.4 and 5.6% owned) in Seattle were to go off.

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5 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

Tentative lineup tonight:

Verlander/Scherzer/Barnhart/Carpenter/Gennett/Seager/Segura/Duvall/Fowler/Granderson

In the top 1% currently (29th of 3170). Need those Seattle bats.

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10 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

In the top 1% currently (29th of 3170). Need those Seattle bats.

How'd this end up doing??

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7 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

How'd this end up doing??

46th. Seattle bats never came (they were almost no hit). It was only a $3 entry, but I won $20 for it and hit on my 50/50 as well.

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I am getting absolutely crushed the last 3-4 days.  Like 0 good LUs crushed. 

@Raging weasel  and @Northern Voice  -  what do you look at when finding bats if anything?    I feel like I am getting a bit better at picking SPs, but I am getting a ton of zeros and single digits with the bats.  Seems like I need to tweak something in my process or stop overthing - something.    

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am getting absolutely crushed the last 3-4 days.  Like 0 good LUs crushed. 

@Raging weasel  and @Northern Voice  -  what do you look at when finding bats if anything?    I feel like I am getting a bit better at picking SPs, but I am getting a ton of zeros and single digits with the bats.  Seems like I need to tweak something in my process or stop overthing - something.    

I'm basically using the "mini-stack" strategy on most of these. I find 2-3 pitchers I want to pick on, then try to find guys hitting at the top of the order with the platoon advantage. I've found this the best way to find good value guys and I think it lets me get a piece of the potential big scores while spreading the exposure to any one game and it's more cash (50/50) oriented than GPPs, because in terms of actually winning money, I have more success there, though the tournaments, like last night, can be a lot more fun to follow.

Last night the Phillies had Ben Lively going, so I had Gennett/Barnhart/Duvall as the 1/4/5 hitters against him. I find catchers beyond the top couple to be a crapshoot, so if I'm not paying up, I'm basically looking for someone hitting 6th or higher, hoping for that extra plate appearance against the field.

Granderson and Fowler both seemed like obvious picks to me last night - leading off, not against great pitchers and only 3200/3300 each. I was watching the Jays game, so I know that Granderson in getting that 5th plate appearance added a walk, run and RBI to his total. Both of these two guys were in the top 25 or so total outfielders using the Fangraphs sabersim tool as well but were way down the list in terms of cost.

The Cards were facing Jhoulys Chacin, so I added Matt Carpenter with Fowler (an earlier version had Kendrys Morales from the Jays in here).

The Seattle part of my stack didn't work out last night but it was the same idea, Jake Junis is pretty unproven (though I might not bet against him again for a while) and Segura was batting 2nd, Seager 5th.

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6 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

I'm basically using the "mini-stack" strategy on most of these. I find 2-3 pitchers I want to pick on, then try to find guys hitting at the top of the order with the platoon advantage. I've found this the best way to find good value guys and I think it lets me get a piece of the potential big scores while spreading the exposure to any one game and it's more cash (50/50) oriented than GPPs, because in terms of actually winning money, I have more success there, though the tournaments, like last night, can be a lot more fun to follow.

Last night the Phillies had Ben Lively going, so I had Gennett/Barnhart/Duvall as the 1/4/5 hitters against him. I find catchers beyond the top couple to be a crapshoot, so if I'm not paying up, I'm basically looking for someone hitting 6th or higher, hoping for that extra plate appearance against the field.

Granderson and Fowler both seemed like obvious picks to me last night - leading off, not against great pitchers and only 3200/3300 each. I was watching the Jays game, so I know that Granderson in getting that 5th plate appearance added a walk, run and RBI to his total. Both of these two guys were in the top 25 or so total outfielders using the Fangraphs sabersim tool as well but were way down the list in terms of cost.

The Cards were facing Jhoulys Chacin, so I added Matt Carpenter with Fowler (an earlier version had Kendrys Morales from the Jays in here).

The Seattle part of my stack didn't work out last night but it was the same idea, Jake Junis is pretty unproven (though I might not bet against him again for a while) and Segura was batting 2nd, Seager 5th.

@Northern Voice - nice post, thanks.  I have a couple questions;

1.  Do you use specific stats when looking at the SPs to target, or you just been following baseball long enough to know who the junk is?

2.  Do you use the "mini stacks"  in the cash LUs too, or do spread it out more for a cash LU and then pivot to use mini stacks for the gpps?  

 

A few things happened last night:

1. StL didn't show up anywhere on my list when I wrote down SPs to look at via stats, so I had 0 Fowler and was surprised that he was 20+% owned.  I didn't know if there was something I didn't see, Chacin is just junk and I am too new to baseball to know, and/or it was a batting order/salary play.  

2.  Cinc was on my list, but they burned me the night before and hadn't seem to do much on the season and lost a LHB, so I also has 0 of them.  

3.   I had Harper, Arenado, and Hoskins as favorite plays.   Thor and Bundy at SP.    Because I used Bundy on FD, I pivoted to Richards on DK and because I used Hoskins on FD, I used Harper on DK.  My DK LU was a bottom 5% cash LU last night.   Also because I had a bit of Bundy, I had 0 Toronto bats.  

 

So deciding if my process is wrong, or I am just getting unlucky and am on a cold streak this week (started the year OK).  I do know that I need to look at batting order/away teams more in cash.  If I am losing a bunch of at-bats vs. others, I already starting behind the pack.  

 

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@Northern Voice - nice post, thanks.  I have a couple questions;

1.  Do you use specific stats when looking at the SPs to target, or you just been following baseball long enough to know who the junk is?

2.  Do you use the "mini stacks"  in the cash LUs too, or do spread it out more for a cash LU and then pivot to use mini stacks for the gpps?  

 

A few things happened last night:

1. StL didn't show up anywhere on my list when I wrote down SPs to look at via stats, so I had 0 Fowler and was surprised that he was 20+% owned.  I didn't know if there was something I didn't see, Chacin is just junk and I am too new to baseball to know, and/or it was a batting order/salary play.  

2.  Cinc was on my list, but they burned me the night before and hadn't seem to do much on the season and lost a LHB, so I also has 0 of them.  

3.   I had Harper, Arenado, and Hoskins as favorite plays.   Thor and Bundy at SP.    Because I used Bundy on FD, I pivoted to Richards on DK and because I used Hoskins on FD, I used Harper on DK.  My DK LU was a bottom 5% cash LU last night.   Also because I had a bit of Bundy, I had 0 Toronto bats.  

 

So deciding if my process is wrong, or I am just getting unlucky and am on a cold streak this week (started the year OK).  I do know that I need to look at batting order/away teams more in cash.  If I am losing a bunch of at-bats vs. others, I already starting behind the pack.  

 

For targeting the SP's, I'm mostly just avoiding the top 75 or so SP's, it is mostly from just knowing who the guys to pick on are but I will look at over/under's as well to get an idea of games to target. There are also certain teams (BAL, TB, FLA, DET, CWS, SD, KC) that I will go against whenever possible.  

I do like the mini-stacks in cash games as well.

I hear you about Harper, a lot of the earlier versions of my lineup had Trea Turner and a very cheap OF.

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I am sure I look at too much stuff because I am still trying to learn players, etc  since I am still pretty much a rookie at baseball in general.  

I will talk out loud today to see if there is something glaring I am not doing.  For SPs,  I think DeGrom is too cheap on FD so I will try a 50/50 with him.  Not sure about DK.  Currently thinking about pairing DeGrom with either Corbin, CMart, Nola, or Manaea.   The most expensive combo would leave about 3.4K/player left, cheaper would be 3.7K.   I like Sale as a gpp pivot from DeGrom for gpp or just using 2 of the cheap guys I listed.  FD the same, but seems like C-Mart might be underpriced there.  

 

For cash I quick looked at WHIP, wOBA, and BB% splits allowed by SPs.  Using that teams to target bats from were: Seattle-both, Mets-both, Balt-both, Philly-both, LAA-R, KC-L, Wash-L.  I assume Coors also has to be looked at, so I looked at those teams too.  It's basically the same values for players that showed up on both sites.   I used the 3.4K cut off for the players on DK assuming doing the most expensive SP combo, here are the guys that I wrote down:

C:  Sisco, D'Arnaud, Hedges

1B:  Mancini, Pujols, Duda, C.Davis, M.Adams

2B:  Cabrera, Flores, Schoop, Kingery

3B:  Flores, Seager, Kingery, Moust

SS:  P. Valaika

OF:  N.Williams, C.Young, Goodwin, M.Adams

Names that were very close and under 4K:  Haniger, A.Jones, Margot, Pirela, Renfroe

 

NOW - are these names that you guys came up with too?  If not, who do you have instead?  If so, how do you narrow down this list?   Seems like the play is to go with a couple Mets, cheap C, cheap OF, and see what you can buy after that?

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Plugged a space saver in with the above players and came up with:  DeGrom/Nola - Sisco, 1B 3.4K, Flores, Arenado, SS 3K, Haniger, Cespedes, Renfroe

 

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6 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

I'm probably avoiding both Severino and Sale today. Degrom, Stras, Nola, CarMar, Corbin, Keuchel all look good to me.

Sale for gpp only for sure, but he could K Judge 4 times as well.  Risky, but a lot of K upside.  

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KP > I'll look further later but I imagine I'll be on some cheap SD OF (Margot, Renfroe), some Mets, maybe Molina at C and a Card or two? I won't be on Baltimore players because I have Sanchez as one of those top 75 SPs and also :homer:

 

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21 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

KP > I'll look further later but I imagine I'll be on some cheap SD OF (Margot, Renfroe), some Mets, maybe Molina at C and a Card or two? I won't be on Baltimore players because I have Sanchez as one of those top 75 SPs and also :homer:

 

Mets are cheap on both sites, and SD is absolutely dirt cheap on FD - Margot, Renfroe, Pirela all under 2.8K and Christian V is only 3.1.   I like using the Mets a little more on DK b/c on FD Flores is a 1B, so right now my DK LU has 3 Mets, and my FD LU is leaning more Coors.  

I was bored at lunch and looked at batter K% and highlighted the ones that were under 20%, and that narrowed the list from above down to:  Seager, Haniger, Cabrera, Flores, D'Arnaud, Schoop, A.Jones, Pujols, C.Young, Moust, Margot, Renfroe.     SS that popped up on DK were Andrus and Segura.  

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As of now I have these two built:

DeGrom/Corbin/Hedges/Hosmer/Profar/Cozart/Simmons/Renfroe/Granderson/Choo

Keuchel/Nola/Hedges/Carpenter/Hernandez/Kingery/DeJong/Blackmon/Hoskins/Renfroe

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7 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am getting absolutely crushed the last 3-4 days.  Like 0 good LUs crushed. 

@Raging weasel  and @Northern Voice  -  what do you look at when finding bats if anything?    I feel like I am getting a bit better at picking SPs, but I am getting a ton of zeros and single digits with the bats.  Seems like I need to tweak something in my process or stop overthing - something.    

I have the same problem with bats that you do-- it seems the guys I pay up for (4k+) never come thru for me like Arenado last night. I pick my bats by finding the worst SPs and using top of the order guys vs them. Like tonight Ill use guys playing vs Bailey,Perez,Felix and cheap Padres like Renfroe. I started out hot but havent won in 4-5 days myself.

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I don't actually see a lot of tournaments I want to enter tonight, I usually go for single entry $3, $5 etc... for those ones but not a lot there.

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FD $2 50/50 and 3man

degromm marte cozart aarenado story granderson renfroe jay descalso

$2 SE gpp

martinez duda cozart moose simmons renfroe trout williams herrera

good luck all!!

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Good Luck.  Here is my 50/50 + 25cent LU on FD:

DeGrom Santana Sogard Moust DeJong Renfroe Margot Hoskins Goodwin

 

One of my gpp SD stacks:  DeGrom Olson Schoop C.Villan DeJong Margot Renfroe Pirela Freeman

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Oh, and I have a Sale/DeGrom + Milwaukee lefties LU for 25cents in and one with DeGrom/Corbin and Oakland for 25cents.  :excited:

 

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2 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

Blackmon scratched - doesn't look like anyone had him but just in case. 

I swapped Trout in for him.

I had him in a couple gpps and was just coming in to post this.  Too bad my Cs were going for the most part with Ianetta moving up to the 2. 

One of the reasons that I liked MLB vs. NBA was the late scratches drove me crazy in basketball.  Feels like I have had a couple times this last week somebody show up in the batting order just to get scratched an hour later.  

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36 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Huh.  Strasburg is 70% in my 50/50 and Nola is 61%, and I don't have either.  :oldunsure:

 

...and of course both are cruising so far.  Not good for me. 

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6 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

I won't be on Baltimore players because I have Sanchez as one of those top 75 SPs and also :homer:

If I'd had the guts to actually use him, I'd be in a real good spot...

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Come on - I am 95th or lower on my 50/50s on both sites.  A lot of baseball left, but I need to stop looking at the scores.  

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4 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

As of now I have these two built:

DeGrom/Corbin/Hedges/Hosmer/Profar/Cozart/Simmons/Renfroe/Granderson/Choo

Keuchel/Nola/Hedges/Carpenter/Hernandez/Kingery/DeJong/Blackmon/Hoskins/Renfroe

welp....

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38 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

welp....

:lol:  Pretty much.  Also had 0 Boston b/c I assumed that would be a pitching duel.  

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I think my FD cash is DOA, but I am holding out small hope with my DK.  I am about 35 points behind the line and still have Trout/Upton/Arenado and my 2 SPs to go.  :popcorn:  I am going to turn on the As game and watch them dominate too!

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16 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I think my FD cash is DOA, but I am holding out small hope with my DK.  I am about 35 points behind the line and still have Trout/Upton/Arenado and my 2 SPs to go.  :popcorn:  I am going to turn on the As game and watch them dominate too!

Yeah my GPP play is in exactly 321st of 1189 right now, and the top 321 get paid. Hedges/Kingery/Trout all have HR's and Keuchel is still pitching (though not well). This one could keep the night from being a total loss for me.

LOL scratch that, Keuchel went 4 innings 

Edited by Northern Voice

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5 hours ago, Northern Voice said:

As of now I have these two built:

DeGrom/Corbin/Hedges/Hosmer/Profar/Cozart/Simmons/Renfroe/Granderson/Choo

Keuchel/Nola/Hedges/Carpenter/Hernandez/Kingery/DeJong/Blackmon/Hoskins/Renfroe

I might not be as out of these as I thought.

 

**this message has been brought to you by Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges.

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13 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

FD $2 50/50 and 3man

degromm marte cozart aarenado story granderson renfroe jay descalso

$2 SE gpp

martinez duda cozart moose simmons renfroe trout williams herrera

good luck all!!

50/50 3man lineup scored 158.2 which placed me 70th and 2nd( 1st 225.4) Cutline was 173.9

GPP lineup scored 181.50 which was good for min cash of $5. trout actually did something for me for a change. When I went to bed Cozart batting leadoff had 0 in a 10 run game. cashline for the gpp was actually lower (172) than the 50/50 line. $6 in $5 out

$2 gpp on DK was a disaster (89.15) as I paired Kuechel/manaea with Hou/Stl/Ariz bats. Cashline there was 138.5 so just needed 3 HRs from dejong/altuve/bregman combo to cash as they were a combined 11.5% owned.

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Another near 0-fer for me.  Really leaking $ here.  To be fair, it's all winnings from last baseball season, but still.  

I had 1 gpp limp across the cash line.  That was my Angels + Padres with Kingery and C.Mart.   I get bad LUs for my gpps since I go really boom/bust with 3-4 man stacks and try to think of lower % guys.  

Cash is what frustrates me, and I remember it frustrating me last year and doing mostly gpp after awhile.  I was also reminded last night why I grumble about slates with a Coors game on it.  Long story short, it seems like when I look at ownership, I have dudes that are <10% owned in the 50/50s and some of the guys that are 50%+ weren't really on my radar.  So that's what has me thinking about WTF I am doing.  

I went over it a bit yesterday, but here is what I do quick in the am as I drink my coffee in between the older one going to school and the young one waking up (basically all these stats and where I look are from RG)

1.  Look at their projections for SPs.  In there they have the splits of wOBA allowed the last 2 years to left and right handed batters, and right down any team that was >.340. 

2.  I look at their SP hub in their link for Daily Pitcher Splits.   I make a mark for SPs from the above list that have high WHIP, BB% and low K% as well.  

3.  Scan the Plate IQ for batters that have high wOBA, BB%, and low K% for cash plays against that list of SPs.  

 

The splits haven't updated yet,  but for example tonight that initial quick list shows: 

  • LHBs from LAA, Mia, Tort
  • RHBs from Cinc, Balt, Mia, Tort, Cubs, LAA

Highlighted would be batters with the platoon, so would be the best place to start I guess.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I was down for the night, got a little back on the GPP but lost in the 50/50.

My hitters we're good but the pitchers were too much too overcome with some of the dominant performances last night.

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Yeah, for some reason I can't get the hang of MLB cash lineups either. Usually get the SP but never the cheap nobodies that are 70% owned and put up points. And like you most of my guys are 20% or less.

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