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KarmaPolice

MLB 2018

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Decent amount of SPs for a small slate, but on first glance I didn't see a ton of teams to try.  

I think Scherzer is a great gpp play b/c ownership will be low.  Kluber and Ray also in play.   For cheaper options, I like the SPs in the Minn/Milw game.  Minn is bad vs. LHP and their runs yesterday came mostly off the bullpen if I remember right.  Milw is banged up, so there is K upside for Gibson too.  

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Nm, I was looking quick at overview of pricing, and I saw some of the Clev prices, and they are probably the best option, especially on the road vs. that bullpen.  Alonso and Chisenhall are both under 3K and Kipnis is 3.1.  It's pretty workable to do those 3 + Lindor/Ram/Encarn + stud SP.  

Also, I was reading that it looks like J.Polanco will be joining the team today after his suspension.  Only 2.0K on FD, 3.0K on DK.   

Also, the podcast mentioned Pat V in Coors as a salary saver dart.  3.0K at 2B for a Coors bat.   They also mentioned to keep an eye on if Hundley cracks the lineup for SF today. 

 

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My gpp lineups yesterday were duds, none broke 100pts but did win the 3man pickem so up $1.40.

Some good SPs at the top today in Scherzer,Kluber and Wood. The middle to low priced options are not for the faint of heart-Eovaldi,,Gibson,Freeland,Suter, Loaisiga and Sanchez. I'll probably go with Kluber/Wood and Scherzer/1 of the cheap guys. Was thinking Id stack vs anibal but he surprisingly has really good success vs yanks in NY-- 3-0,3.05 era and .182 BAA with 15 Ks. Not sure I have the guts to start him but not stacking vs either.

i like both sides for bats in the CWS/Cin game , Cle, Nats and TB.

 

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

My gpp lineups yesterday were duds, none broke 100pts but did win the 3man pickem so up $1.40.

Some good SPs at the top today in Scherzer,Kluber and Wood. The middle to low priced options are not for the faint of heart-Eovaldi,,Gibson,Freeland,Suter, Loaisiga and Sanchez. I'll probably go with Kluber/Wood and Scherzer/1 of the cheap guys. Was thinking Id stack vs anibal but he surprisingly has really good success vs yanks in NY-- 3-0,3.05 era and .182 BAA with 15 Ks. Not sure I have the guts to start him but not stacking vs either.

i like both sides for bats in the CWS/Cin game , Cle, Nats and TB.

 

This is exactly where I keep looking.  

I have a couple LUs written down.  One is Suter or Gibson + Wash and Clev stacks:  Gibson Alonso Kipnis Rendon Turner Harper Soto Chisenhall  + 2.8K for UTL

The other I have is Scherzer + TB stack with a good amount left over.  

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Maybe they are pimping the new features, but for some reason RG allowed me to have a 7day free trial on the Premium.  Figured it would be worth a peek at these new reports on the IQ.  Gotta say, there is probably such a thing as too much info.   A lot of the charts are nonsense to me on first look, the one good thing is the matchup factors where they just quick list the +s and -s of the matchup.  

Still really wish they could get some bullpen info in all this junk.  

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Anybody else who is playing on FD, Eovaldi's name keeps getting brought up in podcasts and on mentions for sites I look at as being the cheap gpp option to fit the NY/Coors/Clev stacks you might want.  Only 6.3K tonight, or SP17 for salary on the day.  DK his price is probably too much - I think it was SP7 or something?   Basically everybody agrees that Castillo will be mega-chalk on DK as people will probably go him + Kluber/Scherzer.

 

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I'm going

Kluber/Suter Nats,CWS

Wood/Eovaldi+ TB,Yanks

Wood/Cmart+ Cle and 1offs

Gibson/Loaisiga + Cin,SF

Freeroll

Castillo/Freeland + Cle,Nats,Cin

Good luck

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Not using the chalk in Castillo (44%) has got me behind and my guys aren't hitting much either. Also missed the Chisenhall scratch so not looking good.

 

Edited by Raging weasel

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Yeah, my lineups crapped the bed.  I had Ray as my SP in the $1 entries.  Then I had Cleve stacks with 0% lindor, and dodger stacks with 0% kemp.  

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Ended up cashing the 2 lineups with Lindor but had zero Dodgers. Was winning $2 in the freeroll but the Dodger guys flew past me and only won $1 scoring 164.25. $2 in $1.62 out. Would've been a plus night if I caught the Chisenhall news on time.

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Ended up cashing the 2 lineups with Lindor but had zero Dodgers. Was winning $2 in the freeroll but the Dodger guys flew past me and only won $1 scoring 164.25. $2 in $1.62 out. Would've been a plus night if I caught the Chisenhall news on time.

I didn't see that either.  I think he was in 2-3 of my $1 LUs.   I at least had a handful of LUs cashing until Kemp happened.  He was a surprising (to me anyway) 10%  owned.  B.miller was popular too, and actually hit a HR and as you said, Castillo did well and was popular.  Oh well, time to look at today's stuff.

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Having a hard time finding SPs I like. Kershaw still on a pitch count so not paying top dollar for him. I usually like Flaherty Newcomb and Bieber but they are priced up and only Bieber has a good matchup. So that leaves Greinke and Eflin at the high end and I prefer the discount and upside of Eflin.

The mid tier is kind of a wasteland but Wheeler has been solid lately and could make a lineup. The under 7k(DK) group is pretty good imo with Yarbrough, Richard and Bassit all in decent spots with 20pt potential.

With all the bad pitching I of course love a bunch of bats. I faded Coors last night but don't think I can do it again vs the SPs there tonight. Cle and LAD both in play again after their fireworks last night. Cin and Atl lefties in a good spot again but they keep burning me . I really like Phil vs Cobb so may start my stack there and fill in around. Seat guys have some good bvp and may go under owned.

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

Having a hard time finding SPs I like. Kershaw still on a pitch count so not paying top dollar for him. I usually like Flaherty Newcomb and Bieber but they are priced up and only Bieber has a good matchup. So that leaves Greinke and Eflin at the high end and I prefer the discount and upside of Eflin.

The mid tier is kind of a wasteland but Wheeler has been solid lately and could make a lineup. The under 7k(DK) group is pretty good imo with Yarbrough, Richard and Bassit all in decent spots with 20pt potential.

With all the bad pitching I of course love a bunch of bats. I faded Coors last night but don't think I can do it again vs the SPs there tonight. Cle and LAD both in play again after their fireworks last night. Cin and Atl lefties in a good spot again but they keep burning me . I really like Phil vs Cobb so may start my stack there and fill in around. Seat guys have some good bvp and may go under owned.

Not sure if it's good or bad, but I agreed with damn near all of this.  

SPs really are all over the place today, and I am having trouble separating them.  Can't do Kershaw.  Still highest salary and he hasn't had a game over 35pts on FD since April.  I do like Greinke and Eflin, but I think the decision is if I am going to pay up there or not since there is also upside way cheaper on FD - like the guys you said:  Flaherty, Newcomb, Bieber.  Just watch the Az LU - Flaherty becomes more interesting the more RHBs show up for Az.   D.German is very cheap on FD - 6.5, and Yarbrough is  6.1 so I wrote those guys down too.   Not sure how to tie break between these guys.  

Spots I had written down were:  Philly, Mets-R, Cin-L, Houst, Clev-R, KC-L, LaD, and Seat-R.    Coors needs to be looked at too, but I like Colorado a lot more vs. LHPs, and SF is so priced up on FD I can't seem to do it.  Blackmon and Gonzales are cheap on FD, but they also have been ice cold for what looks like a couple weeks now.  When I stare at pricing I keep asking myself do I want Blackmon for 4.2K, or Cruz for 4.1K?  Maybe Hoskins at 3.9k?     Conzales at 3.6K or Schebler for the same price?  

 

No surprise, but my placeholder was a little Seattle 3-man stack:  Eflin Healy Moncada Moustak M.Gonz Hoskins Kemp Cruz Haniger .     I will be watching the Cleveland and Houst LUs closely b/c there is a lot of cheap value in those with Guyer, R.Davis, Gurriel, Stassi, etc..   It might be pretty easy to pair one of those teams with Philly or Seattle tonight.  

I think Philly, Seattle, Clev, Houst, and Dodgers are the overall teams I like and then try to get values in some of the other spots.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Looks like I no longer qualify as a casual DK player:(

Have you mostly been playing the casual stuff?

Also, damn your Tigers - put in a 3 game entry for fun this after noon and paired Hendricks with the other 2 away teams - Hendricks Moreland Nunez Escobar Polanco Roario Kepler JDMart Betts. 

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37 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Have you mostly been playing the casual stuff?

Also, damn your Tigers - put in a 3 game entry for fun this after noon and paired Hendricks with the other 2 away teams - Hendricks Moreland Nunez Escobar Polanco Roario Kepler JDMart Betts. 

Only the 3man pickems I like so much were casual-- hopefully can still win at those

I didnt even realize Tigers are playing right now, just assummed it was a travel day. Weird to have 3 day games in a roy this time of year

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Hi again guys - was looking over earlier posts here and after doing my own numbers crunching, can't find much of anything different than what you guys have. Eflin will be in one LU, gonna use DeSclafani in a 2nd [yeah, I know; but it's the White Sox and 6.8K on FD]. Bieber will be in LU #3. So many hi-implied totals tonight, with six teams implied over 5 runs, including COL & HOU over 6. The Phillies just under five, and I will have some of them also.

Cheap options on FD that I'm liking: Yuli Gurriel & Brandon Guyer, who's only 2.1K! Hi Woba & ISO numbers against LHP & hitting 5th.

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I should add, too, that I also like the LAD's LHB's tonight, but, after the early fireworks display they put on last night, might run into some hi-ownership from recency bias.

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9 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

I should add, too, that I also like the LAD's LHB's tonight, but, after the early fireworks display they put on last night, might run into some hi-ownership from recency bias.

@reel_smooth - FWIW, if you like the Dodger lefties, they don't project the LHBs as being too high owned.  Muncy < 8%, Bellinger < 3%, Joc 5%.  

Just taking an overview of their projections, the highest players by far are Colorado and Houston along with Yarbrough.   Next closest are Cleveland and SF, and everything else is spread out quite a bit after that.  

 Some of the projected at 5% or less guys that stood out as plays discussed today:  Cruz, Kemp, Hicks, Stassi, Healy, Hoskins, C.Santana, Encarnacion.

 

Seems like the gpp dart teams of the ones that I wrote down are:  Philly, KC, Dodgers, Mets, Seattle.  

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@reel_smooth - FWIW, if you like the Dodger lefties, they don't project the LHBs as being too high owned.  Muncy < 8%, Bellinger < 3%, Joc 5%.  

Just taking an overview of their projections, the highest players by far are Colorado and Houston along with Yarbrough.   Next closest are Cleveland and SF, and everything else is spread out quite a bit after that.  

 Some of the projected at 5% or less guys that stood out as plays discussed today:  Cruz, Kemp, Hicks, Stassi, Healy, Hoskins, C.Santana, Encarnacion.

 

Seems like the gpp dart teams of the ones that I wrote down are:  Philly, KC, Dodgers, Mets, Seattle.  

 

 

 

I actually have Healy as a one-off in the UTL spot in one LU; also decided to make another $1 GPP and stack Segura, Cruz & Haniger.

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1 minute ago, reel_smooth said:

I actually have Healy as a one-off in the UTL spot in one LU; also decided to make another $1 GPP and stack Segura, Cruz & Haniger.

You know I like that.  

I have a "late night hammer"  gpp entry of:  Yarbrough Bellinger Altuve Muncy Fletcher Joc Cruz Haniger C.Santana

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18 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

:sigh:  One of these days I might actually play Cincy bats.  

I played them most of the last week and they barely did anything along with Twins and Atl.

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

I played them most of the last week and they barely did anything along with Twins and Atl.

Sounds like me with Palka.  I think tonight is about the first time in a couple weeks I haven't clicked his name... 

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23 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Need Bellinger to go off to make a profit tonight.

Right there with you.  Everything is tanking, but the lone bright spot is my $3 SE I tried with a few Dodger lefties that sitting at around 200pts and would at least make the night not a losing effort.  I have Bellinger/Muncy/Joc in there.

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:lol:  seriously, I have been playing the W.Sox for about 2 weeks now hoping for a night like this.  I had Moncada a few spots, but it was a rare time that I didn't have the stack.  

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I broke even, but I will take that on a day where I had 0 of the other LUs correct.  

Today I am just doing a very little research approach and doing a SE for each slate.  

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I have been having this frustrating string of slates where my SE gpps are <2pts from cashing every time.  I think in the last couple days I am 4/4 on this happening, and that's where I sit for the afternoon one as well.  

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3 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Lineout and ground out, finish in 2nd 4.35 from 1st. Still .50 in $6.12 out.

Have 2 .25ers and a $2 3man for the evening.

 

Nice job!

I am actually up about $5 on the day.  I did $3 of 25cent entries and a $1 SE tonight.  I think 80% of my LUs had Anderson or Bauer in them and I faded Coors for the most part.  Since they were cheap to fit with Bauer, I had a lot of Grandal and Taylor and my best LU was T.Anderson with a Cincy/W.Sox game stack.  

Edited by KarmaPolice
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Evening slate was a disaster, who'd of thought the best SP combo would be the 2 in Coors. I used Cole,Hill,Corbin and Stroman and other than Reddick and Moncada whiffed on all my bats.

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Oof.  The SPs today are "fun".  Looks like pricing is similar on both sites with Verlander way up there and then about a 5K drop in salary.  

Who else we looking at - Hellickson, Miller, Weaver?   

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I agree on the pitching today, may go pickem on DK and just a SE on FD. Helickson doesn't get Ks, Cueto too expensive coming off the DL. I usually use Chacin but not vs Atl lefties. More likely to go Fried and Lopez and load up on Hou,Atl and Det/Tex bats.

ETA, just heard local weather and s cool front rolls in around 6 that could spawn heavy t-storms so need to consider that now.

Edited by Raging weasel

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55 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

I agree on the pitching today, may go pickem on DK and just a SE on FD. Helickson doesn't get Ks, Cueto too expensive coming off the DL. I usually use Chacin but not vs Atl lefties. More likely to go Fried and Lopez and load up on Hou,Atl and Det/Tex bats.

ETA, just heard local weather and s cool front rolls in around 6 that could spawn heavy t-storms so need to consider that now.

I was going to ask about weather there, since it looked like Det was the only iffy spot on the night.  

Fried keeps getting mentioned in podcasts and in articles, so I will have to look at him.  He is only 5.9K on FD tonight.   Thought about Gonzales, but he has two just OK starts vs. LAA already, so I will probably pass on him.  

Looks like besides Verlander, the only 2 SPs with a decent K% on the year are Weaver and Fried, so that might be where I look to next.  I will dig deeper at lunch too.   It seems like a night that if you aren't using Verlander, you are just praying for 15DK pts or 25FD points from your SP and your bats go off.  

If I am using Verlander, I need to start digging for value bats too since he only leaves about 2.9K/player.  

Judging by the mentions, it seems like Verlander + Balt stack might be the popular gpp play tonight.  

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Update:  While I was on the crapper I was able to put together a Verlander + Az stack (Goldy, Pollock, Ahmed, Murphy), and a couple of those are expensive, so for the $1 entries I am just going to stick with Verlander.   Camargo and Reddick are still cheap, and upside guys like the 2.0K 2B for Milwaukee can be used too.   Instead of Goldy I could use a Wash bat or Houst.  I am thinking I could get Verlander + Houst stack going as well.  

Wash and Balt were the two main teams I wrote down this morning as both had SPs with high WHIP, HR/9, and lower rated bullpens.  

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On FD for cheap guys I'm hoping Stassi(2.2) plays today. Also Jorge Polanco(2.7) back from suspension and Span(2.6) hopefully leading off are in decent spots.

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38 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

On FD for cheap guys I'm hoping Stassi(2.2) plays today. Also Jorge Polanco(2.7) back from suspension and Span(2.6) hopefully leading off are in decent spots.

You playing some FD now?

 

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Here is what I came up with at lunch for guys to put with Verlander on FD. 

 

Just writing down sub-3K players that looked decent, I wrote down:

Bour, Dietrich, Riddle, Murphy, Rua, Camargo, Villar, Kratz, Jones, Davis, Mancini, Rickard, Polanco, L-Morrison, Stassi, M.gonz, Reddick, Ahmed, JR Murphy, Healy, Gamel.  

I bolded the ones that also have decent ISO and wOBA on the season vs. handedness of SP. (Camargo was close, but left him off).

 

Then I poked through and narrowed down the list more looking at how they are vs. a high % of what the SP throws, and that list looked like:

Bour, Camargo, Kratz, Jones, Stassi, JrMurphy, L.Morrison,  Healy.  

 

When I was looking through the pitch types, I was also looking at the studs and what might match up as a team (good vs. a high % of pitch type).  A few stuck out:

Atlanta:  Freeman, Markakis, Acuna, Camargo

Milwaukee:  Thames, Braun, Kratz  with Aguilar and Villar pretty close

Balt:  Machado, Trumbo, Jones, Davis    Mancini hit the 1st pitch very well (55% thrown)

Minn:  Rosario, Escobar, L.Morrison,  Dozier, L.Morr    with Polanco being close on the pitches

Houst:  Bregman, Gattis, Stassi  were all great  M.Gonz close.

Seattle:  Haniger, Cruz, Healy, Zunino   all profiled well vs. the top 3 pitches, and Seager had 2 of 3.   

 

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Another thing that I THOUGHT I heard on the podcast was that if Cueto falters in his start,  Holland is in the bullpen now and might be coming in after him, and absolutely stinks.  StL is pretty cheap across the board so that might be worth a 25cent low owned shot, and they could also be paired easily with Verlander.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

You playing some FD now?

 

Yeah I loaded $25 in yesterday. Thought I had a win in 50/50 last night with Corbin but bullpen falling apart and Cards points left me in 51st missing cut by .45

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18 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Yeah I loaded $25 in yesterday. Thought I had a win in 50/50 last night with Corbin but bullpen falling apart and Cards points left me in 51st missing cut by .45

Cool, welcome back.  Must have been the holiday - I put in $20 on DK.   Not sure if tonight is the night to try again, but I do have 2 25cent entries on deck.  

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Not sure what I like best, or if stacking is the answer, but if I use a core of Camargo, Riddle, Verlander, Reddick.  I can fit in these stacks:

Thames or Aguilar, Villar, Braun, Kratz, 

Haniger, Cruz, Healy, Zunino

 

Going to look at Houston now.  

 

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FWIW I've seen Verlander's projected ownership at 50%, Fried at around 18-20%, Weaver at 8%, and everybody else 5 or lower.  

Highest team stacks were:  Wash, Balt, Houst, Minn, Az, Atl.  

Seattle and Milw were two of the lowest so I like them best for gpps in terms of teams that I had listed.   StL was 3rd lowest, so I might throw a cheap dart or two in that direction as well.  

 

I assume that looking at the %s the popular builds will be Verlander + Balt/Minn/Az  and Fried + Wash/Houst/Atl?    I think there is 0 chance of fitting in Wash with Verlander and probably not Atl, unless it's a bottom of the order stack. 

 

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My DK Verlander lineup is super risky but should be low owned if it hits

Verlander Lopez Hicks healy Perez Seager Polanco Inciarte Reddick Haniger

the other not much better for nerves

hellickson Fried Hicks Gurriel Villar Bregman Turner Cruz Springer Span

Those are .25 each and have a $2 3man pickem

 

FD is pretty risky too== $1 SE

Fried Stassi Albies Bregman Polanco Cruz Span Springer Goldy

weather looks to hold off here but still chance of popup storms around8-9

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