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Green Bay Packers Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
If you nail two of the top 4 players at a premier position plus pick up an extra first rounder next year, you can do whatever you want.
Das Gute!
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I don't know if that punter will amount to much, but today, after UDFA's have been signed, there are still 100+ LB's I'd rather have on a team I root for than Cichy. LB limitations, in a safety body, with DL athleticism. No chance of making a roster.
Be glad you got a decent punter instead. Time to stop rooting for college once pro time hits.
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Balco
Footballguy
Not sure why you see it as a wasted pick. They got a starter in the fifth round. And it looks like an impact starter. NFL.com had him as a 3rd or 4th round pick.
Balco
Footballguy
Mr.Pack
Footballguy
Mr.Pack
Footballguy
Balco
Footballguy
Mr.Pack
Footballguy
The Claymaker
Footballguy
Overall I personally am pretty happy with our draft. But starting in the 5th I think we had some jacked up picks. Why not take that risk on a great story, high motor guy that apparently everyone fell in love with like Shaq Griffin? We could have gotten Cole or the punter later. Even if Griffin is just a 3rd down rush backer, the kid is a great story and everyone is pulling for him plus he’s got talent. He would have been great in GB. We definitely hit some homers but we also popped up to the catcher on a couple picks.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
On the Wonderlic he was not even able to get the free point for spelling his name correctly. Now granted, its not Tom or Ed, but still.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Pipes
Footballguy
Yeah let not bring any bad Karma discussing this. However history shows half the teams, for whatever reason, that were in the playoffs last year don't make it the next. There is so much turnover it's not unrealistic to think the Saints won't make it. I chuckle that everyone assumes it's going to be a late round pick. Yes the Saints are a good team so it doesn't seem likely but The Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, Falcons, Panthers and Rams all seem like legit playoff teams plus the 49ers and Buccaneers and young talented teams as well. Teams like the Lions and Redskins always seem to hang around as well. Who knows the Giants could make a run. The point is that pick isn't guaranteed to be a late 1st rounder.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I like the three young corners a lot. Like a really lot. I'm not even sure who my favorite is but I tend to think we've got the NFLs next Legion of Boom developing here. Two big towers on the outside and an absolutely fantastic depth/nickel guy in Alexander. I am a big fan of Kevin King and I tend to think he's got NFL stardom in his future. But he might be the third best corner on the team at this point. Or the second, or the best one.
They let the draft come to them two years in a row, and with the pass rushers in next year's draft (and not this year so much), I tend to think Gute is well out ahead of the curve so far.
We've come a long way since trotting out Ladarius Gunter to cover Julio Jones in the playoffs.
They let the draft come to them two years in a row, and with the pass rushers in next year's draft (and not this year so much), I tend to think Gute is well out ahead of the curve so far.
We've come a long way since trotting out Ladarius Gunter to cover Julio Jones in the playoffs.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I kind of agree, but lean more to letting Alexander play outside over King and then move him into the slot in 3 wide sets and put King on the outside. That recovery speed is sickening and is going to play a major role in breaking up plays where the guy looked open when the ball was thrown.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
shady inc
Footballguy
ESPN's Rob Demovsky went through the GB schedule before the draft and predicted an 11-5 season
http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/44500/2018-green-bay-packers-game-by-game-predictions
Now that we're post-draft, think any of the predicted losses turn into wins?
http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/44500/2018-green-bay-packers-game-by-game-predictions
Now that we're post-draft, think any of the predicted losses turn into wins?
Warhogs
Footballguy
11-5 would be a pretty successful season. This team still has concern areas on defense such as pass rush. Young guys can take a while to develop and some might bust. The offense will of course have Rodgers back for hopefully a full season but it has changed with the loss of Jordy and the addition of Graham. If you told me today they would finish the regular season at 11-5 I would be very happy with that.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
So, some like the draft relative to T.T.'s drafts, and some, not so much. Me, I note the following. Mr. Gutenkunst was drafting higher than Thompson, generally, much higher. Gutenkunst was also graced with 5 extra picks, courtesy of Thompson. What did he do, he over addressed Corner and Wide Receiver and he deferred some of the value of this draft into the future. The latter was particularly interesting to me given that many have been talking about the future being now, and Rodgers having a window that is closing.
I thought he over addressed corner. Now I was fine with the first pick, and realize the second pick was likely true to their board, but it ran contrary to their off season acquisitions. House and Williams, along with Rollins and King seem more than serviceable with the one addition. The second was maybe overkill. Now maybe not, but that could have been used on a top, young T.E., an area the Packers could use some help in even with the addition of Graham.
As for the bounty of receivers drafted, again I see value at the draft slots, great value in fact, but unlike many I was not concerned with W.R. Some saw the departure of Jordy as depleting the group. Me, I think Adams, Cobb and Allison or Clark with Yancy fighting for a spot was strong. Clark and Yancy have a year in the system and were both ready for some progress, I thought. I guess I see this draft as not maximizing that investment and not addressing other needs. I would have been happy with one or two tosses at the W.R. dart board, but three seemed a bit much, to me.
In the end maybe I have fallen in love with players. Maybe Gutenkunst hit a home run. Certainly he knows more than an unconnected drunkard like myself. Certainly he has better insight into the offense and defense they will be running this year. I hope he got this right.
As for potential record I am hoping for 12-4 if Rodgers stays healthy. I hope they have a very quick offense when they play the Rams. I do not want Rodgers exposed to that d-line. They may not be the Fearsome foursome of old, but they have my attention.
I thought he over addressed corner. Now I was fine with the first pick, and realize the second pick was likely true to their board, but it ran contrary to their off season acquisitions. House and Williams, along with Rollins and King seem more than serviceable with the one addition. The second was maybe overkill. Now maybe not, but that could have been used on a top, young T.E., an area the Packers could use some help in even with the addition of Graham.
As for the bounty of receivers drafted, again I see value at the draft slots, great value in fact, but unlike many I was not concerned with W.R. Some saw the departure of Jordy as depleting the group. Me, I think Adams, Cobb and Allison or Clark with Yancy fighting for a spot was strong. Clark and Yancy have a year in the system and were both ready for some progress, I thought. I guess I see this draft as not maximizing that investment and not addressing other needs. I would have been happy with one or two tosses at the W.R. dart board, but three seemed a bit much, to me.
In the end maybe I have fallen in love with players. Maybe Gutenkunst hit a home run. Certainly he knows more than an unconnected drunkard like myself. Certainly he has better insight into the offense and defense they will be running this year. I hope he got this right.
As for potential record I am hoping for 12-4 if Rodgers stays healthy. I hope they have a very quick offense when they play the Rams. I do not want Rodgers exposed to that d-line. They may not be the Fearsome foursome of old, but they have my attention.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Pipes
Footballguy
I'm fine with that mainly because their DB's were so bad the last couple of years. I just think in today's NFL with 3 and 4 WR sets and TE's like big WRs you can't have too many CB's. In my mind House and especially Williams were just temporary band aids that now, with hopefully limited snaps, can be durable at effective the entire year. Especially Travon at his age. I'm just hoping I don't hear the term undrafted free agent when describing a Packer DB (I know Shields was a success story) but the others not so much. Rollins can hit the streets as far as I'm concerned. Inevitably they will suffer groin and hamstring pulls so the more guys the better.Ditkaless Wonders said:
I'm a little surprised they didn't draft a TE and some point in the middle rounds especially with all their picks. Hopefully they have a plan other than bank on Jimmy Graham staying healthy. All and all very good draft. A TE and more pass rush would've been nice but they weren't going to fix everything and I really like the pieces Gut put in place. Plus it will be nice to have someone to cheer against besides the Bears and Vikings.
Completely agree. Take a chance on Shaq Griffin, Cichy, or any other prospect. Special teams guys you can find a dime a dozen in free agency.
You can still find gems that late. Stefon Diggs, Jay Ajayi, DJ Alexander were all 5th round picks in the 2015 draft., the latter two were pro-bowlers. Shocked he took a punter with some decent prospects still available. Sam shields ended up being very good and was undrafted.
7th round I can see using for a punter or kicker. Anything sooner is a waste of draft capital.
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No. First-year learning curve is notoriously difficult for cornerbacks. And the rest of the defense is also learning a new scheme.
Rodgers might have some new weapons but they will take time to gel. I would consider 11-5 to be a good season at this point. Anything under 10 wins is a disappointment and 12+ would be fantastic.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Of Watt, Beigel, and Cichy it was the latter that was always forcing play and wiping out mistakes. I am a huge fan. Same, frankly, for Fumagali. Like Jason Whitten in the pros, in college all this guy did was make catches for first downs and T.D.'s. He had a knack for keeping drives alive, even when everyone knew they were going to him. That said I get there is pressure when they draft local kids. I understand not doing so, and I get that I may be more enamored of them than an objective evaluator would rank them.
I understand Fumagali sliding. The guy disappeared in big games. He scored 1 TD against Big Ten teams last season and had 3/30/0 in the relatively high-scoring Orange Bowl. He's shaping up to be a stat padder against weak competition in college and not be able to make the jump.
Cichy, though, he was a beast against everyone (when he played, anyway).
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
While I agree, there were some better picks to make round 5 (such as Chichy), I think we are vastly under-estimating the importance of punting.
Last year wasn't a complete you-know-what show as everyone seemed to think when they cut Masthay. Schum did alright, but not good enough. We were bottom 10 in yards per punt, and LAST for punts inside the 20.
It's a position we unfortunately couldn't just "find someone in the 7th" or "sign a free agent" and deal with it for another year. After the 4th shank you'd all be screaming how he didn't address the issue and "how can we expect our defense to win games when they are starting on the opponents 40 every possession?!"
Unfortunately, kickers and punters do lose games. When you have a defense that is so-so (and now littered with youth and rookies), you need to play the field position game as best as you can. Every now and then you need to invest either money or a decent draft pick on a kicker and punter, unless you want to be on a carousel season after season trying to get lucky with a 7th rounder or FA. No one likes to do it, but it's necessary at times.
Was I happy with the pick? Not really. I'm not defending the pick, just pointing out that we needed to invest in our punting game. The pick does make sense and the guy seems like he could be a special talent
I have a question- for Mr. Pack and Phenomena- instead of taking Scott in the 5th, which punter do you think the Packers should have taken in the 6th or 7th? Assuming Scott is gone. Because most people do what's easy- they complain about picks the GM makes without saying who they would have picked instead. You both have named some good LBs in round 5 that I agree have a strong case as being better contributors, but then what would you have done to address the Punter situation?
It sounds like this guy could be really really good... so I'm curious if you're willing to go on record as to whom you would have picked to address the punter situation.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Kind of cool... GB brought in Conor Sheehy from the Badgers as an UDFA. He had a predraft visit with the Packers. I'm surprised he wasn't drafted at all really.
Went to my alma mater for high school. He's a fun guy to watch play. I think he could fit with our team quite nicely. Hope he makes the cut!
Went to my alma mater for high school. He's a fun guy to watch play. I think he could fit with our team quite nicely. Hope he makes the cut!
The Claymaker
Footballguy
So just for a little fun, who do you guys think will be our new #3, or do you have faith that slow Geronimo keeps the 3 spot?
My personal choice is EQ St. Brown, the dude is 6’5 and ran a 4.4 forty, he suffered from garbage QB play last year, which could push his progression back a little. But looking at many of the “pro sites” ratings of him, seems like most expected him to be a 3rdish rounder. I really feel we could have a steal with this kid.
If you base it on draft position, Moore gets the edge, but my personal feeling is, he’s a deep threat and I’m not sure oh good he will be running all routes. Just mho.
My personal choice is EQ St. Brown, the dude is 6’5 and ran a 4.4 forty, he suffered from garbage QB play last year, which could push his progression back a little. But looking at many of the “pro sites” ratings of him, seems like most expected him to be a 3rdish rounder. I really feel we could have a steal with this kid.
If you base it on draft position, Moore gets the edge, but my personal feeling is, he’s a deep threat and I’m not sure oh good he will be running all routes. Just mho.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I’d like to see what the big boy Clark can do.
Geronimo has performed when called upon...not sure I ever see him more than a 4 though.
I like that there will be competition there though. EQ is definitely intriguing.
Hoping Cobb is kept moving around from backfield to slot and used creatively.
Geronimo has performed when called upon...not sure I ever see him more than a 4 though.
I like that there will be competition there though. EQ is definitely intriguing.
Hoping Cobb is kept moving around from backfield to slot and used creatively.
The Claymaker
Footballguy
The only thing about Clark, the time he got last year, I’m not sure about his hands. Seemed like he had several drops in just a short amount of time. What I love about EQ is that size/speed combo and he’s got good hands, but like most rookies he’s gonna have to work on route running. What will be killer is 5 receiver sets with a few 6’3 plus guys that can fly.
sho nuff
Footballguy
True...thats why Id like to see what he can do. See how he does in camp and preseason.
Adams used to drop quite a few too...seems to have worked through that and become a great option for Rodgers.
Agree on having sets where we have size out there.
I would not have taken a punter at all. Punter and kicker are two positions where there are plenty of serviceable & cheap options both in free agency every year and undrafted players. What happens if you need an offensive lineman mid season? You're crap out of luck.
Need a kicker? Walsh, Novak, Barth, Rose are all still unsigned. Vinatieri (and a host of other great K/P) went undrafted.
Need a punter? Donnie Jones ranked 6th/11th/16th in net punting the last three years. He's still unsigned.
In general, for other positions, the problems with free agency is that it is A) Expensive, B) you're getting older, not younger, and C) the quality of talent is lower because they were essentially not good enough to stay with their current team.
None of those are issues with special teams players. Even in free agency they are very cheap, plus kickers/punters age more gracefully than any other position, and the level of talent between a free agency kicker compared to a signed kicker is extremely slim relative to any other position like QB/lineman/WR/etc. Can Novak beat a top kicker (say Gano?) in a kicking contest on any given day? For sure. Can a free agent WR beat Julio Jones? Lol. There's no comparison. It's far more valuable to take a shot on potential stars later in the draft. Every year 2-5 pro-bowlers are taken in the 5th round or later. These aren't just servicable starters - they're stars.
These are all very good reasons but my biggest complaint is that YOU NEVER GAIN VALUE ON THE PICK!!! If this punter works out, great! But you are getting him at near max-value. You saved maybe $2M/year. Top punters make $2M-$4M/year. So you have him under contract for a few years and getting maybe a few million in savings. But that's only if he develops into a top punter. If he's servicable then you didn't save much at all.
How does this compare to other positions? Look at the pro-bowlers from recent drafts that were picked in the 5th round. Tyreek Hill made the pro-bowl and has been a high-impact player for the Chiefs. He is getting paid < $1M per year while his value to the team might be in the $7M-$10M/year range. That's a huge amount of value gained for that pick. The problem with drafting special teams players is you're capping out the potential value of that pick. I would MUCH rather take a swing at a starter like Howard or Hill (both drafted in the 5th round) and find an undrafted punter than waste a draft pick on a punter by taking him at max value.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think you make some good points, but you're assuming a lot. You're picking out the one or two round 5 exceptions and acting as if that's the rule; that the Packers could have gotten a perennial pro bowler in round 5 because it's happened a handful of times in the last several years. That's like saying, "Why did the Packers take a kicker round 7 when there are guys like Donald Driver and Tom Brady out there!?"
Yes... if the Packers had the choice between Tyreek Hill or JK Scott, I would pick Hill. But that wasn't the choice. The choice was JK Scott, a guy who will play every single game and solve a significant Special Teams problem, or a player who might be on the roster in 3-4 seasons, much less September.
Here's a list of the Packers' 5th round draft choices for the last decade:
Bolded = Did not play in the NFL last year
Underlined = Currently active but not on the GBP
2017: DeAngelo Yancey WR (practice squad... incomplete, but looks like a bust so far), Aaron Jones RB (incomplete)
2016: Trevor Davis WR (bust)
2015: Brett Hundley QB (bust)
2014: Corey Linsley C (below average starter)
2013: Micha Hyde DB, Josh Boyd DT
2012: Terrell Manning LB
2011: DJ Williams TE
2010: Andrew Quarless TE, Marshall Newhouse, T
2009: Quinn Johnson FB, Jamon Meredith G
2008: Breno Giacomini T
So in the last 10 years GB has had zero pro bowlers picked out of round 5. Of those 14 picks, 2 (Linsley - even though he is not very good- and Hyde) maybe 3 (incomplete grade for Jones) have worked out to be anything worth more than special teams players, although one could argue that Hyde's biggest contribution was special teams...
I suppose had the Packers not drafted a punter, based off their last decade of drafting, they had a 21% chance of picking a player who would have turned out to maybe start one day (and that's counting Aaron Jones and Hyde as a starter).
It stands to reason that Scott will have a greater impact than 90% of the above list, and could possibly be the only probowler selected in round 5 by green bay in the last decade- scouting certainly makes it seem like he's got the talent to do it. Time will tell. But as I mentioned above, you're acting as if they passed up a huge major game changing talent in favor of a punter. And that's simply not the case. They passed up a lottery ticket that may or may not even make the final roster for a player that fills a starting need day 1. I'd say that's value.
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Pipes
Footballguy
I agree with this. I also don't think you need to get value out of every pick. The Packers had a boatload of picks so I'm fine with them "wasting" one taking a punter if it means I never have to hear about the Packers punting game for the next 10 years. If this kid turns out to be above average then it's a really good pick.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Dismissing punters as some kind of cosmetic accessory shows a pretty shallow understanding of the game, IMO. Good ones are difference makers that tangibly improve a team’s chance of winning games. Bad or mediocre ones are just the opposite and can easily cost a team enough that they lose games.
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This is demonstrably false. PFF did an analysis years back about a "Robo-punter who could always place the ball at the 1-yard line" which would be an extremely good version of a punter... they conclusively analyzed that he wouldn't even be worth a first round pick because they are not significantly marginally better than normal human punters whom you can get undrafted. I'll see if I can find the article.Bronco Billy said:
Considering the net punting yardage difference between top punters and the ones who went undrafted is roughly 3-5 yards per punt, I find drafting a punter to be laughable. Much rather take a 10% chance on a starter at a key position in rounds 5 or later.
It's not an exception. Look at the NFL draft going back the last decade. There are a minimum of 2 pro-bowl players drafted in rounds 5 or later in every draft. Every. Draft. 2012 had six! 2011 had four of them. 2010 had five. 2009 hd five. The percentages are obviously lower for stars but they are higher than you think.Dr. Dan said:
And those are only pro-bowlers, not just competent starters, which are still worth way more than punters. Guys like Dion Lewis, Charles Clay, and Jeremy Lane are all worth more than an average punter. There are dozens of those guys in every draft available in rounds 5 or later. I would say you have a 8% chance of getting a pro-bowler that late, 15% chance for a decent starter, another 30% for a super-cheap special teams contributor (late round rookie contracts are absurdly cheap and anyone can contribute to those) and the rest that they bust. I'll take those odds any day for non-special teams positions and roll with undrafted kickers/punters.
You're also making assumptions that Scott is going to be very good. 90% chance he's better than that list??? The last top-drafted punter has performed worse than several undrafted punters in the same class. Bryan Angerer is in the bottom 10 for net punting yardage since he's come into the league. Punters have a decent bust-rate as well.
Who's the best personnel guy in the league? Belicheck. In 18 years, he's never drafted a punter. That's the end of the story for me. Don't draft punters. It's a waste of value. Especially not a 5th round pick. There are always future pro-bowlers available at that time in the draft.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
We aren’t talking about a first round pick are we? Does this strawman enhance your position in your opinion? And I’ll say with absolute certainty that a punter who could place opponents 99 yds from your goal line and backed up on their own goal line to start every series that you did not score would be worth a 1st rounder. Ask a HC if he’d like that scenario for a decade and would swap one 1st rounder for it.
I’ve seen the study you are likely speaking to and it make some very questionable assumptions (that’s being generous) in gathering data.
But hey, if you want to pretend it means nothing and then continue to drop trou while laughing about it, you’re doing well so far.
.
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dipandglide
Footballguy
Which of the RB's should we own? All of their stock went up post-draft.
Done a few best ball drafts and I'm also wondering this - both Jones and Williams tend to fall in the 7-8 round range, and both are pretty good backs. RBBC perhaps?
dipandglide
Footballguy
You have to think that one of them will separate from the other. JW pass blocking is by all accounts better. Plus, he seems more durable and able to fit the hammer role. If I had to take one I'd bet on Jamaal.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I don't necessarily disagree and obviously hope you end up being right on Scott, but find myself leaning skeptical on this pick. In any case, it will give us something to talk about for a while. Since Vogel asked for and got his release, Scott is the only punter on the roster right now (unless I missed something). Vogel's net average last year was the highest ever for a Packer. His hang time was also very good. Only 2 touchbacks on 71 punts was 4th in the league. He is probably not a great coffin-corner guy, but did very well imo for a rookie free agent in a very tough venue for punters. It was interesting in the interview I read that Vogel said the Packers told him they drafted Scott because he was the highest rated player on their board at the time. That just seems funny to me, a team that drafted cornerbacks 1-2 claims BPA to explain this pick to their jilted punter. They were probably hoping he would stick around to provide some competition, but its a good look for the team that they granted his request to be released. It was no surprise that Elliot Wolf scooped him up quickly.Dr. Dan said:
I made a joke about BJ Sander a few pages back, and probably have a "once bitten ..." attitude about this pick. Sander was a 3rd rounder, which is quite a bit different than a 5th, granted, but we also heard about how he'd be pinning back opposing teams on the goal line for 10 years. He single-handedly beat Michigan, etc. etc. The talk about Scott is very familiar.
Just as an aside, I like Linsley and disagree he's "below average." Only lineman to play 100% of the snaps last season and was more than adequate. He does get beat 1 v 1 by bigger athletes but is an extremely reliable, smart guy to have running the show for the OL. There's a reason the Packers just gave him a $25mil 3 year extension.
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