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2018 Bold Predictions. In Loving Memory Of Limp Ditka (1 Viewer)

From another thread.....I will say Posey won't finish in the top 5 catchers (not sure how bold but Epic Problem thinks so)

 
Senior Circuit Style.

3 players

Lo Cain hits 30 HR

Trevor Story top 5 at SS

Bryce goes into FA with a triple crown.

3 teams

Hated their off season, but that wasn't about the arms, Those hold up and its enough for the Mets to win 90 games. At worst, they're in the wild card race until late Sept.

Bullpen looks like a mess, not a big fan of their position player depth, For only the second time this century, the Cardinals finish under .500

Marlins and Pirates each lose at least 100 games

 
Yankees fail to make the playoffs

Astros repeat for the first time in 18 years

Mike Trout wins triple crown

Phillies sign both Harper and Machado in off-season

 
Now the AL side

Players

Nate Jones - Finally stays healthy, gets at least 30 saves :homer:

Speaking of staying healthy....Garret Richards has  - Top 3 AL Cy Young

Change of scenery does wonders for Girchuk - 35/100/90

Teams

TB breaks modern day record for number of starters used in a season (currently 20: 1967 Mets)

Minnesota Twins win AL Central

Houston wins at least 110 games

 
-Marcus Semien is a top 5 SS (well top 4 since he finishes ahead of Trevor Story)

-Phillies make the playoffs 

-Twins win AL Central

-Miguel Sano eats his own weight in cupcakes 

-Mariners lose 100 games 

 
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I don't understand the love for the Mets.  Yeah, their rotation can be lethal, but it can also be derailed by injury.  About that line-up, though...what was their team OBP last year?  Is it magically going to get better?  I don't see how with the corpse of Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier.  I don't think the Mets win over 80.5 games and made a pretty good sized wager on that under.
:thumbup:

Padres will be better than anybody expects, KC will be way worse and the Rangers will get off to a hideously bad start.  
KC and Texas are utter garbage, but that wasn't too hard to predict.  The Padres were not any better, though.
 

Braves will be very much improved and a threat in 2019.  Acuna is ROY and by 2019 a candidate for MVP.  
:thumbup:

Braves are going to make the playoffs; will probably win that division. Wish I had taken them to win the East back in March.  Acuna is a force.  So much fun to watch.

State of Florida will combine for 200 losses.  
Man, I did NOT see Tampa with a winning record, so was way off here.  Miami sucks, but everybody knew they would.

Giants pose a threat to win the NL West when Bumgarner returns.  Longoria will lead the way on offense.  Tampa fans will wonder why they even bother...again.  
:bag:   Longoria has sucked this year and the Giants are pretty awful.

Carlos Gonzalez will make it about a month before injury sidelines him, opening the door for David Dahl to re-enter relevance and remind us how great he was/is.  
Cargo has been alright, but he's hit the DL a time or two.  Dahl also saw DL stints and he's just been ok. 

Brandon Drury will love batting in New York.  He will no longer be an afterthought.
:bag:   Embarrassing claim here.

The Mariners will be in the hunt for the Wild Card until late August when the wheels just fall off.  Dan Vogelbach will be the best fat guy in baseball this summer.
Half right and half wrong.  Had the Mariners pegged perfectly.  Vogelbach just excels at eating.

 
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Bruce Bochy fired (or allowed to gracefully retire) by the end of the year.

Both Vlad Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette are playing in Toronto by the end of the year.

AJ Minter quickly takes over as Braves closer and ends up Top 5 in the NL in saves.

 
Rockies win NL pennant

Athletics finish 3 GB in AL Wild Card race

Bumgarner has a higher OPS than Ohtani

Mikie Mahtook puts in a meaningless 20/20 season

 
Soler smashes 20 HR

Verlander wins 25

Correa smacks 40

McCullers fans 200

Ticket and beer prices continue to go up

Alfaro a top 5 C

Mancini cracks 30 with a 350 OBP

Justin Upton 30/20 with over 100 RBIs

 
Anthony Rizzo is the NL MVP. He finishes Top Ten in HR/RBI/OBP, chips in double digit steals and Gold Glove defense.

Rhys Hoskins ends up hitting closer to Greg Gross than Greg Luzinski. 

Lewis Brinson is under the Mendoza line for his first one-hundred AB's, but Mattingly sticks with him, and he ends the season with 15 homeruns and 25 steals.

Robbie Ray has more K's and W's than Kershaw. 

Jesse Winker is a Top Twenty fantasy OF.

As far as teams:

Cincinnati plays +.500 well into August. Votto, Peraza, Duvall, the aforementioned Winker, and even Hamilton and Gennett, bludgeon their way through opposing pitching staffs.

Dodgers regress a dozen games, still win the division, but won't make it out of the NLDS.

Cubs win over 100 games. They had the best 2nd half record in the league after an understandably lethargic 1st half, and fixed their major weakness: a thin, overworked bullpen. 

 
I don't understand the love for the Mets.  Yeah, their rotation can be lethal, but it can also be derailed by injury.  About that line-up, though...what was their team OBP last year?  Is it magically going to get better?  I don't see how with the corpse of Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier.  I don't think the Mets win over 80.5 games and made a pretty good sized wager on that under.
:bag:

Padres will be better than anybody expects, KC will be way worse and the Rangers will get off to a hideously bad start.  
Padres 9-16
KC 5-16
Tex 8-17

Padres suck slightly less than KC/TEX but still suck. 


Braves will be very much improved and a threat in 2019.  Acuna is ROY and by 2019 a candidate for MVP.  
Acuña time, baby!  Braves are 12-10.  Not bad.
 

State of Florida will combine for 200 losses.  
30 losses so far and counting, fast.

Giants pose a threat to win the NL West when Bumgarner returns.  Longoria will lead the way on offense.  Tampa fans will wonder why they even bother...again.  
Slow start for Longoria but coming around.  Mac Williamson is a MAN CHILD!  Game below .500  Arizona will fade.

Carlos Gonzalez will make it about a month before injury sidelines him, opening the door for David Dahl to re-enter relevance and remind us how great he was/is.
:bowtie:

Brandon Drury will love batting in New York.  He will no longer be an afterthought.
:kicksrock:   Had a nice start, but he'll find it hard to regain the job with the young guns swatting.  Good utility guy to have, though.

The Mariners will be in the hunt for the Wild Card until late August when the wheels just fall off.  Dan Vogelbach will be the best fat guy in baseball this summer.
12-10, Vogelbach playing better, but only 2 HR.  Since Schwarber is no longer fat, Vogelbach still has a chance here.

 
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I don't understand the love for the Mets.  Yeah, their rotation can be lethal, but it can also be derailed by injury.  About that line-up, though...what was their team OBP last year?  Is it magically going to get better?  I don't see how with the corpse of Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier.  I don't think the Mets win over 80.5 games and made a pretty good sized wager on that under.
:thumbup:

Padres will be better than anybody expects, KC will be way worse and the Rangers will get off to a hideously bad start.  
KC and Texas are utter garbage, but that wasn't too hard to predict.  The Padres were not any better, though.
 

Braves will be very much improved and a threat in 2019.  Acuna is ROY and by 2019 a candidate for MVP.  
:thumbup:

Braves are going to make the playoffs; will probably win that division. Wish I had taken them to win the East back in March.  Acuna is a force.  So much fun to watch.

State of Florida will combine for 200 losses.  
Man, I did NOT see Tampa with a winning record, so was way off here.  Miami sucks, but everybody knew they would.

Giants pose a threat to win the NL West when Bumgarner returns.  Longoria will lead the way on offense.  Tampa fans will wonder why they even bother...again.  
:bag:   Longoria has sucked this year and the Giants are pretty awful.

Carlos Gonzalez will make it about a month before injury sidelines him, opening the door for David Dahl to re-enter relevance and remind us how great he was/is.  
Cargo has been alright, but he's hit the DL a time or two.  Dahl also saw DL stints and he's just been ok. 

Brandon Drury will love batting in New York.  He will no longer be an afterthought.
:bag:   Embarrassing claim here.

The Mariners will be in the hunt for the Wild Card until late August when the wheels just fall off.  Dan Vogelbach will be the best fat guy in baseball this summer.
Half right and half wrong.  Had the Mariners pegged perfectly.  Vogelbach just excels at eating.

 
True but with Posey that is always a major concern and should be built into your projections. 
He's a catcher and never played less than 140 games in the 6 years leads leading up to last. Care to go find me the catcher eligible players that can say that? 

 
He's a catcher and never played less than 140 games in the 6 years leads leading up to last. Care to go find me the catcher eligible players that can say that? 
But being a catcher and getting up there in age the chances of injury are increased drastically.  I always have concerns about catchers and injuries.  Posey isn't immune to that. 

I will go and try and find a catcher close to that injury situation....maybe Salvador Perez (if he can keep from tripping over his luggage)....

 
He's a catcher and never played less than 140 games in the 6 years leads leading up to last. Care to go find me the catcher eligible players that can say that? 
Looking over a few guys they all seem to get about 4-5 years of around 130-150 games and then have an injury year.  So figuring in the averages it seems logical to project Posey as having a higher likelihood of injury after 6 years of 140+ game seasons (as he was going into last year as you stated).  Catcher is a demanding spot as you have shown from your comments, but expecting a guy to keep that up for more than 5 years in a row seems like a foolish assumption since Posey is the only guy in recent times to accomplish it. 

The closest I found was Yadier Molina:

2009-2013 he played between 136-140 games and then in 2014 got injured that dropped him down to 110 games.  Seems similar to Posey.  Yadi then went to post 3 more seasons of 136-147 games before getting injured again last year. 

Bottom line catcher is a brutal position and injury needs to be considered in projections. 

 
Looking over a few guys they all seem to get about 4-5 years of around 130-150 games and then have an injury year.  So figuring in the averages it seems logical to project Posey as having a higher likelihood of injury after 6 years of 140+ game seasons (as he was going into last year as you stated).  Catcher is a demanding spot as you have shown from your comments, but expecting a guy to keep that up for more than 5 years in a row seems like a foolish assumption since Posey is the only guy in recent times to accomplish it. 

The closest I found was Yadier Molina:

2009-2013 he played between 136-140 games and then in 2014 got injured that dropped him down to 110 games.  Seems similar to Posey.  Yadi then went to post 3 more seasons of 136-147 games before getting injured again last year. 

Bottom line catcher is a brutal position and injury needs to be considered in projections. 
Which is what I said from the get-go, was the only way he falls out of the top 5. You, on the other hand, did nothing of the sort. 

I would actually go the other way and say since catcher is a blah position then you shouldn't keep Posey.  That might also have to do with the fact that  I don't think Posey will put up top 5 numbers this year. 

 

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