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2018 Rookie Drafts with IDP

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7 minutes ago, massraider said:

http://dev.nflprophet.com/zf_board.htm

If you play with deep rosters, this is the ADP for you.

Up to date Zealots league ADP.  Posted in the Shark Pool, very relevant here.  All rookie drafts, no mocks, from 53 man dynasty leagues.  

Looking at that ADP, I think that:

  • I'm probably out on Darius Leonard at his ADP.  His opportunity is baked into his ADP, you have to take him assuming he is a multi year starter there.  I like Fred Warner just as much long term a round later.  I would like this pick more if I trusted Colts front office.  LB there seems like a jumble, no long term clarity, he's not a top athlete or anything.....I dunno.
  • Fred Warner was drafted by a team I think is headed in right direction, and his biggest competition for tackles is clearly a piece of ####. Latest is that Foster threw her dog across the room.  :no:
  • The ADP of the mid/late rounders will come more into focus as more drafts wind up.  
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14 team full IDP, start 1/1/3/1 on O with 2 nonQB flex, only 1 can be RB, 1 can be TE.  ppr RB 0.5  TE 1.5 all others 1.0.  0.15 pt/rush att, 0.5 pt/comp, -0.5 pts/inc, 1.2 pt/tackle, 5 pts/sack

Rd 1

1.01    Gringo Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
1.02    HoPifornication Derrius Guice, RB, WAS      
1.03    Matt     Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
1.04    Pittsburgh Plunge Sony Michel, RB, NE 
1.05    Yoda Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA      
1.06    The Foos Fighters (from D-C) Ronald Jones, RB, TB
1.07    Grand Island KHunts Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN      
1.08    No Quarter (from GM) Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET
1.09    Grand Island KHunts (from TTAC) Baker Mayfield, QB, CLE
1.10    Password is Taco Royce Freeman, RB, DEN 
1.11    Sudsy's Foaming Mess DJ Moore, WR, CAR 
1.12    Brain Surgeons Michael Gallup, WR, DAL      
1.13    Alcoholic Haze Sam Darnold, QB, NYJ     
1.14    The Foos Fighters Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL

Rd 2

2.01    Gringo Christian Kirk, WR, AZ
2.02 HoPifornication James Washington, WR, PIT
2.03    Matt    Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL 
2.04    Pittsburgh Plunge Hayden Hurst, TE, BAL     
2.05    Yoda Josh Rosen, QB, AZ     
2.06    De-Cleater Anthony Miller, WR, CHI     
2.07    Grand Island Khunts Roquan Smith, LB, CHI
2.08    Oregon Reign Dante Pettis, WR, SF 
2.09    No Quarter Tremaine Edmunds, LB, BUF      
2.10 No Quarter (from Def/Wiz) Nyheim Hines, RB, IND
2.11    Sudsy's Foaming Mess Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
2.12    Brain Surgeons Mark Walton, RB, CIN      
2.13    Alcoholic Haze Kalen Ballage, RB, MIA     
2.14    HoPifornication (from Foos) Bradley Chubb, DE, DEN

Rd 3

3.01    Gringo Josh Allen, QB, BUF
3.02    HoPifornication James Derwin, S, LA
3.03    Matt Darius Leonard, LB, IND
3.04    Pittsburgh Plunge DJ Chark, WR, JAX 
3.05    Yoda Mike Gesicki, TE, MIA      
3.06    De-Cleater Marcus Davenport, DE, NO     
3.07    Grand Island KHunts Tre’Quan Smith, WR, NO 
3.08    Sudsy's Foaming Mess (from GM) J’Mon Moore, WR, GB
3.09    Oregon Reign (from TTAC thru Def/Wiz) Leighton Vander Esch, LB, DAL
3.10    Password is Taco Rashaan Evans, LB, TEN     
3.11    Sudsy's Foaming Mess Mason Rudolph, QB, PIT
3.12    Brain Surgeons Ito Smith, RB, ATL     
3.13    Alcoholic Haze John Kelly, RB, LA      
3.14    The Foos Fighters Deon Cain, WR, IND

Rd 4

4.01    Gringo Fred Warner, LB, SF
4.02    HoPifornication Equanimeous St Brown, WR, GB
4.03    Brain Surgeons (from Matt) Bo Scarbrough, RB, DAL    
4.04    Pittsburgh Plunge Antonio Callaway, WR, CLE
4.05    Yoda Akrum Wadley, RB, TEN 
4.06    De-Cleater Daurice Fountain, WR, IND 
4.07    The Foos Fighters (from BB) Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, MIA
4.08    Oregon Reign Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
4.09    No Quarter Daeshawn Hamilton, WR, DEN
4.10    Password is Taco Kyle Lauletta, QB, NYG 
4.11    No Quarter (from DW) Jordan Akins, TE, HOU
4.12    Brain Surgeons Lorenzo Carter, LB, NYG     
4.13    Alcoholic Haze justin Jackson, RB, LA 
4.14    The Foos Fighters Malik Jefferson, LB, CIN

Rd 5

5.01    Gringo Jerome Baker, LB, MIA
5.02    HoPifornication Ian Thomas, TE, CAR
5.03    Matt Keke Coutee, WR, HOU
5.04    Pittsburgh Plunge Harold Landry, LB, TEN 
5.05    Yoda Simmie Cobbs, WR, WAS     
5.06    De-Cleater Josey Jewell, LB, DEN
5.07    De-Cleater (from BB) Michael Dickson, P, SEA
5.08    Oregon Reign Breeland Speaks, DE, KC 
5.09    No Quarter Jordan Wilkins, RB, IND     
5.10    Password is Taco Dalton Schultz, TE, DAL 
5.11    No Quarter (from DW) Chris Herndon, TE, NYJ
5.12    Brain Surgeons Vita Vea, DT, TB     
5.13    Alcoholic Haze Braxton Berrios, WR, NE     
5.14    Grand Island KHunts (from Foos) Kemoko Turay, DE, IND

Rd 6

6.01    Gringo Jaleel Scott, WR, BAL
6.02    HoPifornication Marcell Ateman, WR, OAK 
6.03    Matt    Troy Fumagalli, TE, DEN
6.04    Pittsburgh Plunge Terrell Edmunds, S, PIT     
6.05    Yoda Da’Ron Payne, DT, WAS     
6.06    De-Cleater Chase Edmonds, RB, AZ
6.07    Grand Island KHunts Mike White, QB, DAL
6.08    Oregon Reign Shaquem Griffin, LB, SEA
6.09    No Quarter Rasheem Green, DE, SEA 
6.10    Password is Taco Javon Wims, WR, CHI     
6.11    No Quarter (from DW) Micah Kiser, LB, LA
6.12    Brain Surgeons Denzel Ward, LB, CLE     
6.13    Alcoholic Haze Auden Tate, WR, CIN     
6.14    De-Cleater (from Foos) Jaylen Samuels, RB, PIT

Rd 7

7.01    Gringo Maurice Hurst, DT, OAK
7.02    The Foos Fighters (from HoP) Justin Watson, WR, TB
7.03    Matt    Jaire Alexander, CB, GB
7.04    Pittsburgh Plunge Daniel Carlson, K, MIN
7.05    Yoda Josh Jackson, CB, GB     
7.06    De-Cleater Richie James, WR, SF
7.07    Grand Island KHunts Arden Key, LB, OAK
7.08    Oregon Reign     Jessie Bates, S CIN     
7.09    No Quarter Boston Scott, RB, NO
7.10    Password is Taco Jordan Thomas, TE, HOU     
7.11    No Quarter (from DW) Dylan Cantrell, WR, LA
7.12    Brain Surgeons Phillip Lindsay, RB, DEN     
7.13    Alcoholic Haze Ronnie Harrison, S, JAX
7.14    The Foos Fighters Tavarius Moore, S, SF

 

 

Rd 8

8.01    Gringo Sam Hubbard, DE, CIN
8.02    The Foos Fighters (from HoP)Tyquan Lewis, DE, IND
8.03    Matt Justin Reid, S, HOU
8.04    Pittsburgh Plunge De’Shawn Hand, DT, DET     
8.05    Yoda Josh Adams, RB, PHI 
8.06    De-Cleater Deon Yelder, TE, NO      
8.07    Grand Island KHunts Oren Burks, LB, GB
8.08    Oregon Reign    Tyvan Bryan, DT, JAX 
8.09    No Quarter Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, LB, LA
8.10    Password is Taco Jordan Lasley, WR, BAL     
8.11    No Quarter (from DW) Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, GB
8.12    Brain Surgeons  Chris Warren, RB, FA
8.13    Alcoholic Haze Genard Avery, LB, CLE     
8.14    The Foos Fighters Trenton Cannon, RB, NYJ

 

Edited by Bronco Billy
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32 teams, full IDP, 53-man rosters (plus 7 taxi spots); a little over 2 rounds complete as of this posting.

Note: There are 2 copies of every player in this league (making the 32-team structure more viable for such a deep league).  An interesting quirk of this is that you can see, w/in the same rookie draft, 2 data points for each player, indicating a range for where a guy was actually drafted.  (There are some interesting spreads for certain players, both offensive & defensive, & I expect these will only widen for later guys as the draft goes further.)

http://www66.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=13398&O=17

Edited by TheCheat

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Ummm, anybody see Uchenna Nwosu drafted anywhere yet?  

2nd round pick, 6'2", 240.  Listed as DE on MFL, that will probably change.  If it doesn't, that could be a sneaky DE.  

His athletic testing was excellent. One of the few Force players in this draft, athleticism scores right there with top edge guys, and has played off ball LB.  Chargers have room for an edge guy rushing the passer, and for true off ball LBs. 

Thinking about him with last pick, because I cannot find him being drafted anywhere.

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20 hours ago, massraider said:

Ummm, anybody see Uchenna Nwosu drafted anywhere yet?  

2nd round pick, 6'2", 240.  Listed as DE on MFL, that will probably change.  If it doesn't, that could be a sneaky DE.  

His athletic testing was excellent. One of the few Force players in this draft, athleticism scores right there with top edge guys, and has played off ball LB.  Chargers have room for an edge guy rushing the passer, and for true off ball LBs. 

Thinking about him with last pick, because I cannot find him being drafted anywhere.

Nope, still not taken in mine either.  I presume the current DE designation is depressing his value.  I like what you're thinking though, especially given his track record--thanks for the summary--& the remarkable, uh...fluidity of the LAC LB corps the past couple of years. I agree that he could be a rewarding later pick.

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On 5/11/2018 at 0:06 PM, massraider said:

Ummm, anybody see Uchenna Nwosu drafted anywhere yet?  

2nd round pick, 6'2", 240.  Listed as DE on MFL, that will probably change.  If it doesn't, that could be a sneaky DE.  

His athletic testing was excellent. One of the few Force players in this draft, athleticism scores right there with top edge guys, and has played off ball LB.  Chargers have room for an edge guy rushing the passer, and for true off ball LBs. 

Thinking about him with last pick, because I cannot find him being drafted anywhere.

Yes, he went at 7.07 (45 man roster)

http://www69.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=28439&O=17&DISPLAY=LEAGUE&POSITION=*&FRANCHISE=0000

Not sure if this is a good barometer.  This draft was very different than any of my Zealots drafts.  Matt Adams LB IND went at 2.03.  I had to look up who he even was.  Not sure what the deal is but after that he started going late in some Zealots drafts.  Must have been a news article on him being a monster or something.  Anyone got the skinny on Adams?

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1 hour ago, Fighting Wombat said:

Yes, he went at 7.07 (45 man roster)

http://www69.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=28439&O=17&DISPLAY=LEAGUE&POSITION=*&FRANCHISE=0000

Not sure if this is a good barometer.  This draft was very different than any of my Zealots drafts.  Matt Adams LB IND went at 2.03.  I had to look up who he even was.  Not sure what the deal is but after that he started going late in some Zealots drafts.  Must have been a news article on him being a monster or something.  Anyone got the skinny on Adams?

I think you might be in a league with Matt Adams' mom.  

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On 5/13/2018 at 9:05 AM, Fighting Wombat said:

Yes, he went at 7.07 (45 man roster)

http://www69.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=28439&O=17&DISPLAY=LEAGUE&POSITION=*&FRANCHISE=0000

Not sure if this is a good barometer.  This draft was very different than any of my Zealots drafts.  Matt Adams LB IND went at 2.03.  I had to look up who he even was.  Not sure what the deal is but after that he started going late in some Zealots drafts.  Must have been a news article on him being a monster or something.  Anyone got the skinny on Adams?

MFL has a sort option by NFL team and their ADP order is alphabetical at the IDP positions so if he was thinking of "that Indy LB" meaning without being overly familiar with Leonard it could be pretty easy to just click Adams.

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On 5/12/2018 at 8:24 AM, TheCheat said:

Nope, still not taken in mine either.  I presume the current DE designation is depressing his value.  I like what you're thinking though, especially given his track record--thanks for the summary--& the remarkable, uh...fluidity of the LAC LB corps the past couple of years. I agree that he could be a rewarding later pick.

I picked him up in free agency. Not sure he stays at DE, might go back to OLB. The league that I picked him up is sack heavy if it helps. 

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On 5/7/2018 at 9:21 AM, massraider said:

http://www66.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=42622&O=17

 

12 team, PPR, 47 man roster with 6 man taxi squad.  FA as well.  

Starts Thursday morning.  I'm Boston, if you wanna critique my picks.  

Done.

 

If you ever wanted to see what a team with 20 rookie picks does with them, now's your chance.  

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Vernon as the last pick is awesome. Zero risk and no real loss if he stays LB but huge upside if he gets back that DE tag. Nice draft.... tough not to like it when you get 3 of the 8 RBs, top WR, top TE, top S, top DE (in the 5th!) and get a high upside QB. 

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Yeah, well, I also traded a #1 last year for Amari, knowing it would be Saquon, so hold the applause..........

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13 hours ago, massraider said:

Done.

 

If you ever wanted to see what a team with 20 rookie picks does with them, now's your chance.  

Davenport, Hurst, and Jewell at those spots are steals.

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I would think that's expected in a SF, no?  4 QB's taken means he's pick 1.05, that doesn't seem all that surprising to me.

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I was expecting to see 2-3 QBs in the first, with the top 5 RBs still going first in the early portion of round 1. Instead it was 4 QBs in the first 6 picks which I found very surprising. The 14 team SF linked in the third post is more in line with what I've come to expect. Then again, this is my first ever Superflex and it's only year 3 now so maybe I just didn't have a big enough sample in drafting. I'd guess it was surprising to quite a few in my league, though. My inbox was full of trade offers when I went OTC and Penny / Jones were both still there. 

EDIT: found an SF ADP, which is more in line with what I expected the draft to look like. (kind of forgot about this site, actually)

https://twoqbs.com/dynasty/2018-superflex-rookie-adp/

 

Edited by Flying Elvis
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I'm actually expecting something like 4 QBs in the 1st 6 or 7 picks in my couple of upcoming superflex drafts, & I expect Allen might go higher than one might think too.  Once Barkley's gone, I expect the QBs to go quickly, except for the teams already set enough at QB who can afford the luxury of dipping into that post-Barkley tier of RBs.

Re: the Uchenna Nwosu Q. above., in the draft I linked to above, I wound up taking (the 2nd copy of) Nwosu w/ the very last pick of the draft, 7.32 (the 1st copy of him in this 32-team league went at 7.21).  Speculative dart throw in the hopes that MFL changes his position to LB, since I've seen nothing but the Chargers referring to him as a LB.  (If so, a 2nd.-rd. LB w/ the last pick in a draft? Not too shabby.)

So how early's too early for Tremaine Edmunds?  In the SUPER-handy Zealots ADP massraider posted, he's ranked 19, w/ a range of being taken 1st at 8 (& last at 30).  I'm thinking of reaching for him in the late 1st round (!) 'cuz I think his upside & situation are so great, despite the potential folly of passing on an offensive player at that point, & 'cuz I doubt he'll make it back around to me in the late 2nd.

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^ Thanks for the SF info. 

On the LB question: I've never been afraid to "overdraft" a little bit to get the player(s) I want. Unless you've got a big gap in value between Edmunds and the player you DON'T pick, you should take the guy you want. Selecting a player a half-round early b/c you know he's not making it back to you is fine. Edmunds went 2.05 in mine and that seems to be his ADP. 

Personally, I just don't see the value of Edmunds vs. the other LBs going later as a big enough gap to pass on a top RB in the late first. The top WRs are a different story, though, since most of them are being touted as future WR2, which isn't exactly enticing.

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1 hour ago, TheCheat said:

I'm actually expecting something like 4 QBs in the 1st 6 or 7 picks in my couple of upcoming superflex drafts, & I expect Allen might go higher than one might think too.  Once Barkley's gone, I expect the QBs to go quickly, except for the teams already set enough at QB who can afford the luxury of dipping into that post-Barkley tier of RBs.

Re: the Uchenna Nwosu Q. above., in the draft I linked to above, I wound up taking (the 2nd copy of) Nwosu w/ the very last pick of the draft, 7.32 (the 1st copy of him in this 32-team league went at 7.21).  Speculative dart throw in the hopes that MFL changes his position to LB, since I've seen nothing but the Chargers referring to him as a LB.  (If so, a 2nd.-rd. LB w/ the last pick in a draft? Not too shabby.)

So how early's too early for Tremaine Edmunds?  In the SUPER-handy Zealots ADP massraider posted, he's ranked 19, w/ a range of being taken 1st at 8 (& last at 30).  I'm thinking of reaching for him in the late 1st round (!) 'cuz I think his upside & situation are so great, despite the potential folly of passing on an offensive player at that point, & 'cuz I doubt he'll make it back around to me in the late 2nd.

Regarding Nwosu, I am hoping he stays at DE on MFL.  More valuable.  It seems like it's possible he might get looks as an off the ball LB, and pass rusher on 3rd down.  

The Chargers defense is interesting to me.  They are going to a Gus Bradley 4-3.  I feel like there's a chance for some value plays there, depending on how players get categorized, and how the depth chart snakes out.  Ourlads has the depth chart as Perryman, Kyle Emanuel, and Hayes Pullard as top 3 LBs.  I mean, that's :X.  Jatavis Brown as top backup, but he went into the crapper last year, that seems like some behind the scene stuff that we aren't privy to that turned the Chargers off him.  Here's a good read on him.  I still have the top LBs for them being Brown and Perryman, but both have reasons for doubt.  Perryman has disappointed, and has been injured, it's pretty much pre-draft hype keeping him IDP relevant.  If Jatavis was a flash in the pan, or doesn't bounce back, there's some snaps for young, interesting super-cheap-to-acquire guys like Nwosu and Kyzir White.  If Nwosu stays at DE on MFL, and gets real playing time at LB, might be sexy.  Either way, he's a 2nd rounder barely being drafted, why not if you have the roster spot?  Their bad LBs combined with their scary good pass rush is why I m so big on Derwin James.  Opportunity for tackles behind bad LBs, and big plays brought upon by hurried QBs sounds pretty good for Derwin. Jahleel Addae was productive as their SS, but I think he just lost his job.  

In terms of drafting Edmunds, the 2nd round of the rookie drafts seems pretty not great all around, I can see taking Roquon or Edmunds there.  LBs after the top guys is not looking great this year.  It's mostly speculative adds.  If I was dying for Edmunds at end of the first round, I would trade back.  Someone is in love with Christian Kirk or Gallup, identify that team (who owns Dez? :D) and grab another pick.  Or have someone add a starting LB to sweeten it.  Moving from back of first round to early 2nd is a big drop his year, so the groupthink says, so I would expect a good return.  If I was in the early 2nd, I would personally give up a good amount to trade up from Dante Pettis to Courtland Sutton.  That's worth a staring LB to me.  You might even be able to wrangle a 1st next year.  

I never take LBs early, I always think I'm more prepared and do more research than the rest of my league, and will find guys the others don't.  

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Not a rookie draft with IDPs but an overall ranking of all rookies including IDPs.

You have to go to the tweet and 'probably' zoom in settings to 250% to read the list but 30 of the 75 players are IDPs which even includes CB and DT.

=========================

https://twitter.com/TomDegenerate/status/999629994115698689

Tom Kislingbury‏ @TomDegenerate

FollowFollow @TomDegenerate

Some aggregated Rookie ADP featuring #IDP. Obviously league setting and scoring massively matters but this is interesting for those of you who haven't seen much...

5:35 AM - 24 May 2018

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12 team, 2 QB, IDP, Return yards, PPR salary cap https://realitysportsonline.com/DraftBoard.aspx?leagueid=2942

Barkley - Jackson - Penny - Jones - Ridley - Darnold - Guice - Chubb - Michel - Moore - Mayfield - Freeman

Rosen - K. Johnson - B. Chubb - Pettis - Kirk - Gallup - Allen - Sutton - Gesicki - R. Smith - D. James - J. Washington

T. Edmunds - M. Rudolph - Ballage - Miller - Evans - Hurst - VanderEsch - Leonard - Fitzpatrick - Warner - Goedert - H. Landry

Hines - Davenport - Jefferson - J. Jackson - Vea - Coutee - T. Edmunds - M. Hughes - Ward - J. Reid - Baker - Ito Smith

Chark - St. Brown - Tre Smith - Cain - Lauletta - Callaway - Andrews - L. Carter - Jewell - Schultz - Walton - Key

(I'm in a bit of a reboot and came away with Jackson, Michel, Freeman, Pettis, Kirk, Fitzpatrick, Davenport, Carter)

((Although it probably would have looked better Guice, Michel, Rosen, Pettis, James, any top 4 LB, Davenport))

(((Kept getting LB's sniped right before my pick)))

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On ‎5‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 6:52 AM, Flying Elvis said:

^ Thanks for the SF info. 

On the LB question: I've never been afraid to "overdraft" a little bit to get the player(s) I want. Unless you've got a big gap in value between Edmunds and the player you DON'T pick, you should take the guy you want. Selecting a player a half-round early b/c you know he's not making it back to you is fine. Edmunds went 2.05 in mine and that seems to be his ADP. 

Personally, I just don't see the value of Edmunds vs. the other LBs going later as a big enough gap to pass on a top RB in the late first. The top WRs are a different story, though, since most of them are being touted as future WR2, which isn't exactly enticing.

I typically don't do this but the two times I took a top LB late in the first ended up being Patrick Willis and C.J. Moseley so it didn't work out half bad.  A lot depends on your league structure as mine has a salary cap structure and the rookie picks have salaries based on the round they go in and really LB is the only defensive position that would typically be worth the salary you'd pay them as a first round pick.  Given that it is a 16 teamer and with the WR class being weak this year I see Roquan and Edmunds probably going in the late 1st and Vander Esch and Evans probably going somewhere in the 2nd.  As having the 2.06 (22) I'm a bit torn on who's going to fall to me there, if its IDP its probably that second tier of LB's. 

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