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Iran - Democracy Movement, The Nuke Deal & The Future (1 Viewer)

How does Teumps move help the US?   What’s the plan now?  Sanctions?  Apparently Tillerson shut down the sanctions Dept in the State Dept and the head of sanctions at Treasurty quit recently. How are our allies going to react when we sanction THEM?   

This is the dumbest, most wreckless move yet.  There’s no plan here besides war. 

 
Bucky86 said:
Incase you were worried that it was just Trump who didn’t have a clue what happens from here..

https://t.co/2MC9iuUEgU?amp=1
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QUESTION: But one of the pillars was keeping the JCPOA, which he made certain to emphasize repeatedly.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL ONE: Right, but he tweeted today something that seemed to indicate to me a French willingness to work with us.

QUESTION: So you guys have a positive tweet out of it. That’s amazing.

:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

 
 I'm pretty sure he doesn't care too much about the State Dept.; frankly, I don't necessarily know if I do, either.  

 
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No Boeing or Airbus sold in Iran. Can China make aircraft without US help? China will not stop importing oil. Is Trump helping China?

 
Opie said:
Serious question here:

How many here are old enough to actually remember the arms race between the USSR and the USA....now, I mean the REAL arms race...Gromyko....Cuba...THAT arms race.  When the big question was not who had the most nuclear weapons but who could deliver them to their target.  I don't think that many of you are old enough to actually remember "duck and cover" and the absolute fear that was present when the USSR was putting nuclear weapons only 90 miles from Florida while the USA was staging them in Germany.  We saw a small, a very small, snapshot of that period in history when we saw citizens of Hawaii climbing under manhole covers to avoid the incoming missile.  This is what life is like when a country who has vowed to destroy you has nuclear weapons and are able to deliver them.

Democrat POTUS John Kennedy faced off with that situation and Gromyko blinked.

What could have happened had Kennedy been as appeasing and placating as our past few administrations?
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If my history books are correct, the arms race with the USSR was FAR MORE serious than a guy pushing the wrong button in Hawaii.  I'm not even sure why you'd attempt the comparison honestly.  It seems to be exactly NOTHING like what people were facing during the arms race with the USSR.

 
Opie said:
It wasn't that it was "real" or not.  It was perceived as "real" because someone who wanted to destroyed us and promised to do so, had the perceived ability to deliver a nuclear warhead to Hawaii. 

If the treat of an imminent nuclear delivery wasn't perceived as a "real" threat, nobody would have running for cover.

The quote is "power perceived is power achieved".
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It certainly helps when our own leaders help perpetuate that perception.  And the right eats it up.

 
zoonation said:
No one with a shred of intellectual honesty ever considered NK in 2018 a serious threat to successfully deliver a nuke to the US or any of its pacific colonies.  

There was no serious threat.  To compare it to the Cuban missile crisis is intellectually ignorant.  

It’s the equivalent of me threatening to kick GSP’s ###.   The Cold War was real. The Russian parked deliverable nukes in Cuba.  

I take Tim’s point earlier in terms of policy.  I still think that is a stretch.  But, your contention that any current NK threat presented a real and present danger on the same level as Cuba is laughable.  
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agree 100%.  not the same threat, but NK has the ability to nuke South Korea in about 20 minutes, a free nation who thrives & has been a good ally to the US and the world.  NK has been a scourge to everyone, starting with their own people.

 
getting lazy, haven't read a lot of previous pages here.   We do realize that Iran did not sign anything regarding this deal???? Right?   It's an oral agreement.   How can that go wrong?  I mean it is Iran, what have they done?  Just asking.

 
irishidiot said:
getting lazy, haven't read a lot of previous pages here.   We do realize that Iran did not sign anything regarding this deal???? Right?   It's an oral agreement.   How can that go wrong?  I mean it is Iran, what have they done?  Just asking.
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:jawdrop:   An oral agreement?!?! NO ONE WROTE IT DOWN?!?!

 
bradyfan said:
Iran is in a weak negotiating position so I find it strange that they have conceded so little.
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Well, I think that's what the CSIS report with the AEI guy was suggesting; that we go back to the table and renegotiate the deal. 

I don't think we've got a great negotiating position, either. They could simply obtain nuclear weapons if they can enrich uranium, but the idea of lifted sanctions and trade appealed to the mullahs. They have a destabilized economy that's in disarray and subsequently, domestic unrest. It's all pretty Machiavellian at this point.  

 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iranian-forces-fire-rockets-at-israeli-targets-in-golan-1525912963?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/6g9nzWy1TB

Hopefully, a major war or something outbreaks in the region because of this.  That would almost guarantee Trump's impeachment after November!  However, I think it's more likely the mullahs lose control, and there is a revolution.  Did you guys see all that evidence Israel had?  How did they get that out of Iran?  There are people in the Iranian military who have flipped.  It's going to be a quick turnaround imo.

 
here we go...

AP Politics‏Verified account @AP_Politics

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BREAKING: White House condemns Iran after rocket attack on Golan Heights, 'strongly supports' Israel's right to self-defense.

5:35 AM - 10 May 2018

 
The Iraq war was unjustified.  Saddam Hussein was a dictator and did horrible things to his people.  While it's likely that Iraq under Hussein was probably violating some UN Sanctions on oil sales, etc., there was no imminent threat from Iraq to the US or its allies, nor had Iraq substantially supported terrorism in or against the US.  Other countries that were not unilaterally invaded by the US acted at least as bad as Iraq during this time.

Furthermore, not only was the was unjust, it was dumb.  It further destabilized a region that was not particularly stable, spent US blood and treasure for a poor return, and there was no spread or use of WMD that was contained as a result of the action by the US.

Simply because the leader was a "bad hombre" and there was a history of bellicosity from that country against the US is not a justifiable reason to invade, topple the government, and occupy a foreign land.

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iranian-forces-fire-rockets-at-israeli-targets-in-golan-1525912963?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/6g9nzWy1TB

Hopefully, a major war or something outbreaks in the region because of this.  That would almost guarantee Trump's impeachment after November!  However, I think it's more likely the mullahs lose control, and there is a revolution.  Did you guys see all that evidence Israel had?  How did they get that out of Iran?  There are people in the Iranian military who have flipped.  It's going to be a quick turnaround imo.
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Hoping for a major war?

Thats pretty awful.

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iranian-forces-fire-rockets-at-israeli-targets-in-golan-1525912963?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/6g9nzWy1TB

Hopefully, a major war or something outbreaks in the region because of this.  That would almost guarantee Trump's impeachment after November!  However, I think it's more likely the mullahs lose control, and there is a revolution.  Did you guys see all that evidence Israel had?  How did they get that out of Iran?  There are people in the Iranian military who have flipped.  It's going to be a quick turnaround imo.
Click to expand...
I think the people in power will defend their grip on power far longer and harder than you think.  See Assad for how far some will take that statement.  I'm not saying Iran will wage war against its own citizens the same way Assad has, but I doubt there is a "quick turnaround."

 
outside of war what is the administrations plan?  asking a serious question because I haven't heard the plan going forward

 
The Z Machine said:
The Iraq war was unjustified.  Saddam Hussein was a dictator and did horrible things to his people.  While it's likely that Iraq under Hussein was probably violating some UN Sanctions on oil sales, etc., there was no imminent threat from Iraq to the US or its allies, nor had Iraq substantially supported terrorism in or against the US.  Other countries that were not unilaterally invaded by the US acted at least as bad as Iraq during this time.
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100% true and accurate in retrospect

However

It was backed by the American people and voted on by our Govt, it wasn't an executive decision by GW. Our entire Govt and most of the citizens of the US were wrong.

We should have destroyed Saudi Arabia.

 
The Z Machine said:
I think the people in power will defend their grip on power far longer and harder than you think.  See Assad for how far some will take that statement.  I'm not saying Iran will wage war against its own citizens the same way Assad has, but I doubt there is a "quick turnaround."
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That's really wishful thinking. Unless there's an effective coup or the people really take to the streets like in the Arab Spring, forget that.  

 
Stealthycat said:
100% true and accurate in retrospect

However

It was backed by the American people and voted on by our Govt, it wasn't an executive decision by GW. Our entire Govt and most of the citizens of the US were wrong.

We should have destroyed Saudi Arabia.
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Kinda hard to blame them when they were being misled and lied to.  People should be rotting away in prison for how the lead up to that war was handled.  There was so much propaganda at that time it was sickening.  I was against going into Iraq and Afghanistan and remember being made to feel like I was un-American.

 
Dickies said:
Kinda hard to blame them when they were being misled and lied to.  People should be rotting away in prison for how the lead up to that war was handled.  There was so much propaganda at that time it was sickening.  I was against going into Iraq and Afghanistan and remember being made to feel like I was un-American.
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who misled and lied ?

GW? The GOP? Democrat?  Was it a group effort? Was it the media?

 
and don't misunderstand ........... I agree the focus shifted from Saudi to Iraq and while I don't mind Hussein being overthrown, the country's responsible for 911 in large were ignored for Iraq to be front and center

my question is who and how were the American people so misled ?

 
This isn't complicated. If a country is trying to develop nuclear weapons, the international community has three options:

  1. Get them to negotiate the end of their nuclear program
  2. Attempt to destroy it militarily
  3. Accept it and allow them to become a nuclear power
There really isn't anything else you can do. The JCPOA was an attempt at #1. You can argue that it was a bad deal, or insufficient, or wouldn't have worked, but regardless, once the US pulls out, we're implicitly admitting that option is off the table.

So that leaves us with either #2 or #3. Based on what happened with North Korea during the Bush years, my guess is that the Trump Administration will make a lot of threats about #2 but ultimately default to #3 (which is probably for the best, since military action is both hugely destabilizing and unlikely to achieve its goal).

That's why there's no Plan B. Because definitionally, it's almost impossible to come up with one.

 
Stealthycat said:
and don't misunderstand ........... I agree the focus shifted from Saudi to Iraq and while I don't mind Hussein being overthrown, the country's responsible for 911 in large were ignored for Iraq to be front and center

my question is who and how were the American people so misled ?
Click to expand...
1. They were told that the Iraqi military trained Arab fighters to hijack airplanes (exposed this five years later as false)

2. They were told that Iraqi spies met with the hijackers in Prague

3. Torture was used to get detainees to spin wild tales about Al Qaeda getting chemical weapons training in Iraq

4. Told that Iraq was buying yellowcake

5. Called "Al Qaeda's travel agent" one of their top officials in plotting murder and tortured him to come up with plot stories involving Iraq

6. Claimed Iraq had mobile weapons labs despite knowing it was coming from a massive liar

7. Then the White House created a group to market the war.  "The White House Iraq Group."

 
Hasn't George Tenet himself, in his book, claimed that he was in charge of the intel of the run-up to the Iraq War and that he believed it sincerely. Did Tenet lie?  

 
zftcg said:
This isn't complicated. If a country is trying to develop nuclear weapons, the international community has three options:

  1. Get them to negotiate the end of their nuclear program
  2. Attempt to destroy it militarily
  3. Accept it and allow them to become a nuclear power
There really isn't anything else you can do. The JCPOA was an attempt at #1. You can argue that it was a bad deal, or insufficient, or wouldn't have worked, but regardless, once the US pulls out, we're implicitly admitting that option is off the table.

So that leaves us with either #2 or #3. Based on what happened with North Korea during the Bush years, my guess is that the Trump Administration will make a lot of threats about #2 but ultimately default to #3 (which is probably for the best, since military action is both hugely destabilizing and unlikely to achieve its goal).

That's why there's no Plan B. Because definitionally, it's almost impossible to come up with one.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure Plan B is something along the lines of "my supporters don't care about an actual Plan B they only care about undoing Obama's work and Iran=bad, and I'll be dead before Iran's potential nuclear capabilities threaten my own life, so none of this will harm me personally which is literally the only thing I care about."

 
TobiasFunke said:
Pretty sure Plan B is something along the lines of "my supporters don't care about an actual Plan B they only care about undoing Obama's work and Iran=bad, and I'll be dead before Iran's potential nuclear capabilities threaten my own life, so none of this will harm me personally which is literally the only thing I care about."
Click to expand...
I'm trying not to be too cynical (I know, it's hard with these folks). I work with a bunch of Israelis who hate the deal for reasons having nothing to do with Obama. They simply don't trust the Iranians, and therefore don't believe any deal is possible. But they are similarly unable to explain to me what Plan B is.

 
zftcg said:
I'm trying not to be too cynical (I know, it's hard with these folks). I work with a bunch of Israelis who hate the deal for reasons having nothing to do with Obama. They simply don't trust the Iranians, and therefore don't believe any deal is possible. But they are similarly unable to explain to me what Plan B is.
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Yup.  This was always the problem- time was running short because our European allies were done with the sanctions, so something had to be done, and this is a deal that allows for significant oversight, really about as good as you could hope for in the circumstances. 

This is why the next unbiased expert on nuclear non-proliferation who opposes the deal will be the first.

I'm sure some of the people who oppose the deal will be along soon to explain their Plan B and why all those experts are wrong, though. :tumbleweed:

 
Henry Ford said:
1. They were told that the Iraqi military trained Arab fighters to hijack airplanes (exposed this five years later as false)

2. They were told that Iraqi spies met with the hijackers in Prague

3. Torture was used to get detainees to spin wild tales about Al Qaeda getting chemical weapons training in Iraq

4. Told that Iraq was buying yellowcake

5. Called "Al Qaeda's travel agent" one of their top officials in plotting murder and tortured him to come up with plot stories involving Iraq

6. Claimed Iraq had mobile weapons labs despite knowing it was coming from a massive liar

7. Then the White House created a group to market the war.  "The White House Iraq Group."
Click to expand...


Even the President cannot trick 300 million people and the majority of the House and Senate all by himself.

Who were "they"

And be honest - GW was always the dummy President, ya'll cannot give him credit for pulling the wool over an entire nation's head. C'mon now

 
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zftcg said:
This isn't complicated. If a country is trying to develop nuclear weapons, the international community has three options:

  1. Get them to negotiate the end of their nuclear program
  2. Attempt to destroy it militarily
  3. Accept it and allow them to become a nuclear power
There really isn't anything else you can do. The JCPOA was an attempt at #1. You can argue that it was a bad deal, or insufficient, or wouldn't have worked, but regardless, once the US pulls out, we're implicitly admitting that option is off the table.

So that leaves us with either #2 or #3. Based on what happened with North Korea during the Bush years, my guess is that the Trump Administration will make a lot of threats about #2 but ultimately default to #3 (which is probably for the best, since military action is both hugely destabilizing and unlikely to achieve its goal).

That's why there's no Plan B. Because definitionally, it's almost impossible to come up with one.
Click to expand...
Eh, I think they can try to renegotiate (Option #1), but I don't see why the Trump admin thinks they are in a better position to negotiate now than when the JCPOA was agreed upon.  It would seem that if the coalition of US + EU fractures, that leaves the US in a weaker position.

 
The Z Machine said:
Eh, I think they can try to renegotiate (Option #1), but I don't see why the Trump admin thinks they are in a better position to negotiate now than when the JCPOA was agreed upon.  It would seem that if the coalition of US + EU fractures, that leaves the US in a weaker position.
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I'm having deja vu thinking about the ACA debate. Conservatives would constantly promise a plan that lowered costs, expanded coverage, reduced the deficit, and offered everyone a free pony, but when they actually had to put pen to paper, they couldn't accomplish any of those things. I feel like we're getting the same sort of amorphous promises with the Iran deal.

 
rockaction said:
Hasn't George Tenet himself, in his book, claimed that he was in charge of the intel of the run-up to the Iraq War and that he believed it sincerely. Did Tenet lie?  
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Either he lied or he was clueless as to the actual state of things. I don't know what to root for - war crime level dishonesty or just plain old ignorance and incompetence.

 
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