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Bramel combined board and Bloom 100 are up

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On 4/25/2020 at 10:52 PM, rockaction said:

Ruggs sped by him so fast he listed him twice in Tier One. Now that's some #### right there.

Good list. Will use along with Bloom's combined as cheat sheet.

eta* I just saw your avatar comment about the same thing in the Twitter feed. That you, Tick? Naw, thanks for posting. 

It me.

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Good additional data points to factor in for sure.  I know that's the point of a predraft and postdraft exercise and while opportunity and draft capital certainly has to be taken into account (the first more than the latter), don't know that I'd move guys on the offensive side like RB McFarland and WR Van Jefferson up.  Time will tell!

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Another kick in the teeth for idp players using footballguys. The site just isn't willing to put a lot of resources into idp.

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Well, getting Bramel's combined draft board is one of the main reasons I continue to subscribe to this site. I'll have to consider going somewhere else next year.

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On 4/30/2020 at 2:59 PM, Tick said:

No. It's coming.

Work responsibilities and lack of attention to IDP detail over the past two seasons have made this a difficult undertaking.

Shooting for Monday but could be out sooner.

No guarantees on future years, however. This is becoming less and less my flavored analysis and more and more a different way to present the work of others I trust...

Appreciate everyone's interest in the feature and understanding.

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Thanks Jene!

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CDB is finished and waiting for a little cleanup and approval.

Should be on the site -- with commentary and tiers -- by tomorrow morning. Hopefully sooner.

Attached an XLS file of the CDB for y'all here. I think it'll be downloadable...

2020 CDB.xlsx

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4 hours ago, Jene Bramel said:

CDB is finished and waiting for a little cleanup and approval.

Should be on the site -- with commentary and tiers -- by tomorrow morning. Hopefully sooner.

Attached an XLS file of the CDB for y'all here. I think it'll be downloadable...

2020 CDB.xlsxUnavailable

:thanks::clap::pickle:

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4 hours ago, Jene Bramel said:

CDB is finished and waiting for a little cleanup and approval.

Should be on the site -- with commentary and tiers -- by tomorrow morning. Hopefully sooner.

Attached an XLS file of the CDB for y'all here. I think it'll be downloadable...

2020 CDB.xlsxUnavailable

thanks, but link shows up as unavailable....

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By the way, thanks Jene!

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10 hours ago, rockaction said:

Interesting. Simmons in the first. His MFL ADP rank is like nineteen for combined rookie drafts.

This is really flexible to me for the elite type IDP guys (i am not necessarily saying Simmons is elite).  By this I mean, in rookie drafts my first and foremost want is to choose a guy that is a fantasy starter for a number of years.  I find it easier to pinpoint those guys on the IDP side of the ball.  It doesn't do me any good to force an offensive pick that I don't have confidence in and then have them flame out when a nice IDP starter for years is there. 

 

Most websites downgrade the IDP side in the combined rankings but a lot of that is based on the players "hitting".  We all know that not all players hit so I think the offensive side gets propped up a bit.  I don't necessarily force IDP picks in a rookie draft but I am much more willing to pull the trigger on a guy much sooner than typical ADP shows.

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11 hours ago, rockaction said:

Interesting. Simmons in the first. His MFL ADP rank is like nineteen for combined rookie drafts.

He went round 1 in all of mine.

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

He went round 1 in all of mine.

Ah, okay. Don't know what to say then.  First round sounds right for both he and Chase Young, and I wasn't being conentious; but his ADP is at 18.98 for 12-team, IDP leagues at MFL. Perhaps yours is savvier than average. 

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Believe it or not, that's also the first thing I thought of. (I've been doing a lot of reading about scoring and roster set-ups and the like to get a theoretical perspective on things.) Yeah, your trends do help, actually. There's really only two outliers there from what I can see, and those are the LBs. The other averages are about in keeping with the ADP both for Zealots' IDP leagues and at MFL for general IDP ones. Interesting.

TL;DR Only ones higher than average are the two backers in the first.

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I fully expect Simmons and Young to go top 12 in most of my leagues as we start 11 IDPs and the scoring supports it....that being said any differences to either variable I mentioned could make a difference ece...can’t really go off MFL ADPs for that reason

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I've occasionally had some luck looking at MFL ADP and sorting by "earliest pick."  Picks in 60+ roster size 11 IDP leagues are a lot different than picks in a 25 roster size league start 2 IDP sort of scenario, and I think that pulls down the average ADP for IDP players.  Much like the Gally comment above. 

Whatever it's worth, Simmons, Queen, Murray all went round 1 for my league, with Young 2.1

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On 4/26/2020 at 3:21 PM, MAC_32 said:

Rough draft - assume DT required:

Round 2 Chase Young/Isaiah Simmons/Patrick Queen

Round 3 Logan Wilson/Willie Gay/Malik Harrison/KJ Murray/Jordyn Brooks/Jacob Phillips

Round 4 Zack Baun/K'lavon Chaisson/Jeremy Chinn/Grant Delpit/Antoine Winfield/Javon Kinlaw

Round 5 Troy Dye/Akeem Davis-Gaither/Brandon Jones/Xavier McKinney/Yetor Gross-Matos/AJ Epenesa/Derrick Brown

Round 6+ Ashtyn Davis/Kyle Dugger/Kamal Martin/Tanner Muse/Davion Taylor

Looks good for the most part, but I'll be betting on McKinney over the other safeties.  I'm not entirely sure which I prefer between him and peppers but that duo should be fantastic. I took McKinney over chinn, after Winfield was gone. Personal preference perhaps but I like the kid, a lot.

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18 hours ago, uazwildcats said:

I fully expect Simmons and Young to go top 12 in most of my leagues as we start 11 IDPs and the scoring supports it....that being said any differences to either variable I mentioned could make a difference ece...can’t really go off MFL ADPs for that reason

Young is a stud and possibly worth it but I'm never taking DL that high. 

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4 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Looks good for the most part, but I'll be betting on McKinney over the other safeties.  I'm not entirely sure which I prefer between him and peppers but that duo should be fantastic. I took McKinney over chinn, after Winfield was gone. Personal preference perhaps but I like the kid, a lot.

The Giants would be stupid to play Peppers anywhere but near the line of scrimmage, but the Giants have made a lot of stupid decisions over the last several years. I was a lot more interested in McKinney is April than i ended up being in May. I don't have patience when it comes to DB's, so my ranking of him was my way of saying I'm not drafting him.

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22 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

He went round 1 in all of mine.

Young went in the first in one of mine, either league, with 11 IDP. no other IDP in the 1st. We often see the first LB in the end of the 1st or early 2nd, if that LB will play in the middle (generally more tackles and consistent scoring)

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

The Giants would be stupid to play Peppers anywhere but near the line of scrimmage, but the Giants have made a lot of stupid decisions over the last several years. I was a lot more interested in McKinney is April than i ended up being in May. I don't have patience when it comes to DB's, so my ranking of him was my way of saying I'm not drafting him.

Fair enough, but McKinney can and probably will do everything you (usually) want in a safety. He'll be running that defense before long.  

Yeah, I'm a fan of the tide so maybe a little biased. 

I view Delpit much like you do McKinney. 

Edited by -OZ-

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17 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Fair enough, but McKinney can and probably will do everything you (usually) want in a safety. He'll be running that defense before long.  

Yeah, I'm a fan of the tide so maybe a little biased. 

I view Delpit much like you do McKinney. 

I view Delpit as you do too. Karl Joseph is the safety to gamble on in Cleveland. This year anyway. 

I ended up sliding Delpit back in the same tier as McKinney. The maybe I'll own them in a future year tier. 

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Final Draft

Early round 2 give or take: Chase Young

Late round 2: Isaiah Simmons/Patrick Queen

Round 3: Logan Wilson/Willie Gay/Malik Harrison/Kenneth Murray

Round 4: K'lavon Chaisson/Zach Baun/Jordyn Brooks/Jeremy Chinn/Antoine Winfield

Round 5: Jacob Phillips/Davion Taylor/Troy Dye/Akeem Davis-Gaither/Grant Delpit/Xavier McKinney/Yetur Gross-Matos/Javon Kinlaw

Round 6+ Ashtyn Davis/Brandon Jones/Kyle Dugger/Tanner Muse/Derrick Brown/AJ Epenesa/Julian Okwara

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Thanks for sharing, Mac. Good board. There's just too much offensive talent to justify taking IDPs where we'd usually expect based on historical draft patterns.

The only 2 rookie safeties I'd reasonably expect to land in any draft are Chinn and Dugger. As for the rest of them, well, I'm in a start-up right now with 70 teams (14-team format with 5 copies of each player) and 80 offseason roster spots. Malcolm Jenkins is virtually free. Perennial top-15 IDP safety. The odds that a safety in this class is as good are slim. I'd rather invest the picks elsewhere.

 

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20 minutes ago, tripp said:

Thanks for sharing, Mac. Good board. There's just too much offensive talent to justify taking IDPs where we'd usually expect based on historical draft patterns.

The only 2 rookie safeties I'd reasonably expect to land in any draft are Chinn and Dugger. As for the rest of them, well, I'm in a start-up right now with 70 teams (14-team format with 5 copies of each player) and 80 offseason roster spots. Malcolm Jenkins is virtually free. Perennial top-15 IDP safety. The odds that a safety in this class is as good are slim. I'd rather invest the picks elsewhere.

 

Bit of an AC question, but I have friends wondering. Would you take Murray at 25 on a team with a weak linebacking core when Dillon, Gibson, and others are sitting there, likely to be gone before one's next pick?

Is it too good a year for that sort of traditional thinking? To take a linebacker of his quality that early in the process? Or is that still par for the course?

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Depends on starting line-up requirements for me, RockAction. If I have to start 3 LBs but only 1 RB, then I like Murray there (in part because I remain high on Aaron Jones and low on Dillon), but if you gotta start 2 RBs, then you need to consider RB there to insulate yourself at the scarcer position. In a vacuum, 25 feels about right to me for Murray. 

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8 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Bit of an AC question, but I have friends wondering. Would you take Murray at 25 on a team with a weak linebacking core when Dillon, Gibson, and others are sitting there, likely to be gone before one's next pick?

Is it too good a year for that sort of traditional thinking? To take a linebacker of his quality that early in the process? Or is that still par for the course?

 

1 minute ago, tripp said:

Depends on starting line-up requirements for me, RockAction. If I have to start 3 LBs but only 1 RB, then I like Murray there (in part because I remain high on Aaron Jones and low on Dillon), but if you gotta start 2 RBs, then you need to consider RB there to insulate yourself at the scarcer position. In a vacuum, 25 feels about right to me for Murray. 

I still think that is in the realm where you take your highest rated player regardless of position.  Rookie drafts are all about getting starters for many years.  Positions don't really matter much to me because if you take a lesser guy because the position is better but he doesn't pan out because he is a lesser guy does that really help you?  Even if you get stacked at one position because your guys hit then you have flexibility because you have guys that are worth starting.  I don't really factor in positions for rookie drafts.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Gally said:
13 minutes ago, tripp said:

Depends on starting line-up requirements for me, RockAction. If I have to start 3 LBs but only 1 RB, then I like Murray there (in part because I remain high on Aaron Jones and low on Dillon), but if you gotta start 2 RBs, then you need to consider RB there to insulate yourself at the scarcer position. In a vacuum, 25 feels about right to me for Murray. 

I still think that is in the realm where you take your highest rated player regardless of position.  Rookie drafts are all about getting starters for many years.  Positions don't really matter much to me because if you take a lesser guy because the position is better but he doesn't pan out because he is a lesser guy does that really help you?  Even if you get stacked at one position because your guys hit then you have flexibility because you have guys that are worth starting.  I don't really factor in positions for rookie drafts.

Thanks to both of you guys. I start one RB and four flex and 3 LB. It's 9-9 offense and defense. To Gally's point, I don't look at Antonio Gibson nor Dillon as a surefire starter. Gibson's a lottery ticket. Explosive as all get out, but where and how often will he play? Dillon's behind Jones even with that great speed score of his. You may have both talked me into the thing I knew was best for my team by your reasoning, which all points to Murray. Should he be there, I'll take him. Thanks. 

Edited by rockaction
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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Bit of an AC question, but I have friends wondering. Would you take Murray at 25 on a team with a weak linebacking core when Dillon, Gibson, and others are sitting there, likely to be gone before one's next pick?

Is it too good a year for that sort of traditional thinking? To take a linebacker of his quality that early in the process? Or is that still par for the course?

I would look at the rookie drafts from previous seasons and see when the IDP run begins or at least where the top ranked ones go. Each league can be very different regarding where they draft IDPs. I would look at the draft history and then make an educated guess if you have to take Murray now or if he is likely to still be there at your next pick.

I would also look at the Zealots ADP link that Tick provided to get a good idea of where Murray is getting drafted in similar leagues.

Edited by northern exposure
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Just now, northern exposure said:

I would look at the rookie drafts from previous seasons and see when the IDP run begins or at least where the top ranked ones go. Each league can be very different regarding where they draft IDPs. I would look at the draft history and then make an educated guess if you have to take Murray now or if he is likely to still be there at your next pick.

According to history and some really good ADP stuff over at Zealots, he'll be gone by the time I pick next. IDP run went on right after I picked, dagnabbit. 

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Bit of an AC question, but I have friends wondering. Would you take Murray at 25 on a team with a weak linebacking core when Dillon, Gibson, and others are sitting there, likely to be gone before one's next pick?

Is it too good a year for that sort of traditional thinking? To take a linebacker of his quality that early in the process? Or is that still par for the course?

I think the likelihood that Murray does not sustain a 3 down role is comparable to the chances of Dillon getting at least the plus side of a committee. I accept I'm the minority, but fo me at least that decision was not a close one.

Gibson's a wildcard. If my team is deeper than my opponents and he falls to the 3rd round then I'd consider him.To put some context to it, I traded down from pick 26 with him on the board. I already had pick 31 and got picks 33 and a #3 next year to move down 7 spots. I think my team is deeper than others, so I decided that if Gibson fell to 31 then I'd fire the dart knowing I had an extra one now. He didn't, so - oh well. He never entered my thought process on my thinner rosters though.

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1 minute ago, MAC_32 said:

I think the likelihood that Murray does not sustain a 3 down role is comparable to the chances of Dillon getting at least the plus side of a committee. I accept I'm the minority, but fo me at least that decision was not a close one.

Gibson's a wildcard. If my team is deeper than my opponents and he falls to the 3rd round then I'd consider him.To put some context to it, I traded down from pick 26 with him on the board. I already had pick 31 and got picks 33 and a #3 next year to move down 7 spots. I think my team is deeper than others, so I decided that if Gibson fell to 31 then I'd fire the dart knowing I had an extra one now. He didn't, so - oh well. He never entered my thought process on my thinner rosters though.

I see. So you'd advocate for Dillon? The wording was sort of hinky. I was worried about this with Murray. At least three publications have said he isn't so great in coverage and that he's a "downhill" guy. No need to waste draft capital, really, on someone who's not going to start for me. Maybe I'll reach for Gay. I mean, my linebackers are so woefully behind the others in my league there's a 4 point disparity per game between mine and the elite. They're really not even functional. This is probably why instead of reaching for offense I should have been content with Simmons or Queen. Willie Gay, you're up! 

Unless you happen to know of someone I can get late for a bargain...and I should move this over to the thread dedicated to this, which I will.

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Like on Bramel's big board, I have Logan Wilson ahead of Gay. You should be able to get him in the latter half of the 3rd.

Or look for Jordyn Brooks in the 4th. Despite his Rd1 draft position, folks are sleeping on him. All the bad info out there is a double-edged sword in IDP. Take advantage here. I see some IDP writers stating they think Brooks will take over for Mychal Kendricks at SLB. 

Word out of Seattle is that Brooks will succeed KJ Wright at WLB. They're saying KJW will move over to SLB.

I'd be surprised if they don't cut KJW and start Cody Barton at SLB. The only hesitation I have is how nickel snaps will be distributed between Brooks and Barton. Brooks is worth a shot in the 4th tho.

Another guy with mixed reactions is Malik Harrison. The Ravens could deploy two FT LBs. They haven't in years tho. For that reason, I'm inclined to agree with Bramel's take that Harrison is a late-round dart throw. But if that's wrong, Harrison could be very productive next to Queen. I reckon that's why MAC has him in the 3rd. I'd start looking for Harrison in the late 4th if I wanted an LB there.

After that, you're looking at JAGs in good spots, developmental types, or position-flexible players: Phillips, Davis-Gaither, Taylor, Walker, Baun, Uche, Muse

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On 5/1/2020 at 12:10 PM, bronco fan said:

Well, getting Bramel's combined draft board is one of the main reasons I continue to subscribe to this site. I'll have to consider going somewhere else next year.

And the collective effort of their staff is why I stopped subscribing three years ago.

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On 5/5/2020 at 10:55 AM, Gally said:

 

I still think that is in the realm where you take your highest rated player regardless of position.  Rookie drafts are all about getting starters for many years.  Positions don't really matter much to me because if you take a lesser guy because the position is better but he doesn't pan out because he is a lesser guy does that really help you?  Even if you get stacked at one position because your guys hit then you have flexibility because you have guys that are worth starting.  I don't really factor in positions for rookie drafts.

 

I know I'm more of a lurker here, but just wanted to comment that I ended up taking the comment to heart about using the rookie draft to get as many long term starters as possible, and made a fairly significant change to the way I approached my rookie draft this year. Long post detailing picks/thought process influenced by taking some time to take this into consideration.

I've been in my IDP dynasty league for about 12 years and I still feel like a rookie when it comes to the IDP side of the ball, but while in year's past I would focus my attention on drafting offensive players and filling in the defense with FA pickups and late round draftees (and it has worked out okay for me), I fully intended to go heavy on WR in this year's draft (I had 4 picks in the top 24 (9, 12, 19 and 24), but after reading this and some discussion with another person I trust, I decided to buck my usual trend. 

I traded the #9 pick for a 2021 1st and moving up from 24 to 17  (Reagor was on the board and is who I would have taken had I not traded)

At 12, I ended up taking Simmons (Queen went at 11). It was a luxury pick for me as I am very strong at LB already, but it gives me the flexibility to trade a guy like Lavonte David whom I have already received a few inquiries about. Took him over the 3rd tier of WR (Mims, Pittman, Higgins, etc.) and RBs (Dillon, Gibson, Vauhan, Moss) - we start 1 RB, 3 WR (2 flexes as well), and 3 LB, so while I could use WR depth, I figured Simmons really had the most likelihood of making an impact long term.

At 17, Higgins and Aiyuk were on the board as well as all of the previously mentioned RBs. As I have Guice, I ended up taking Gibson as insurance/handcuff plus boom/bust payoff. I'll taxi squad him.

At 19, I had intended to go WR to add depth, but this is where reflecting on this thought process came into play. Chase Young was still on the board. We are not the most DL friendly system (we start 2 DL, 3 LB, 2 DB and one DL/DB flex) but top DLs will outscore the lower end starters by about 3 PPG and are consistent. If Young performs close to projections, I can slide him into my lineup and no longer worry about fielding the hot hand of the week - basically one less spot that I need to churn, and as we use FAAB and count dead years against our contract cap, there are other benefits.

In years past, I probably would have passed on Simmons since I was already okay at LB and gone for one of the WRs and there is no way I would have considered Young there, I would have taken another dart throw on a WR or RB with a low probability of hitting. I can do that at pick 36 with just slightly lower odds of hitting. Hopefully the shift in mindset works.

All that to say thank you for the info - guess you can teach an old dog new tricks. The picks may not look as sexy as loading up on hyped up WRs, but I think it should have a more positive impact on my starting lineup which is the priority as I am in win now mode with this team.

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8 minutes ago, acarey50 said:

 

I know I'm more of a lurker here, but just wanted to comment that I ended up taking the comment to heart about using the rookie draft to get as many long term starters as possible, and made a fairly significant change to the way I approached my rookie draft this year. Long post detailing picks/thought process influenced by taking some time to take this into consideration.

I've been in my IDP dynasty league for about 12 years and I still feel like a rookie when it comes to the IDP side of the ball, but while in year's past I would focus my attention on drafting offensive players and filling in the defense with FA pickups and late round draftees (and it has worked out okay for me), I fully intended to go heavy on WR in this year's draft (I had 4 picks in the top 24 (9, 12, 19 and 24), but after reading this and some discussion with another person I trust, I decided to buck my usual trend. 

I traded the #9 pick for a 2021 1st and moving up from 24 to 17  (Reagor was on the board and is who I would have taken had I not traded)

At 12, I ended up taking Simmons (Queen went at 11). It was a luxury pick for me as I am very strong at LB already, but it gives me the flexibility to trade a guy like Lavonte David whom I have already received a few inquiries about. Took him over the 3rd tier of WR (Mims, Pittman, Higgins, etc.) and RBs (Dillon, Gibson, Vauhan, Moss) - we start 1 RB, 3 WR (2 flexes as well), and 3 LB, so while I could use WR depth, I figured Simmons really had the most likelihood of making an impact long term.

At 17, Higgins and Aiyuk were on the board as well as all of the previously mentioned RBs. As I have Guice, I ended up taking Gibson as insurance/handcuff plus boom/bust payoff. I'll taxi squad him.

At 19, I had intended to go WR to add depth, but this is where reflecting on this thought process came into play. Chase Young was still on the board. We are not the most DL friendly system (we start 2 DL, 3 LB, 2 DB and one DL/DB flex) but top DLs will outscore the lower end starters by about 3 PPG and are consistent. If Young performs close to projections, I can slide him into my lineup and no longer worry about fielding the hot hand of the week - basically one less spot that I need to churn, and as we use FAAB and count dead years against our contract cap, there are other benefits.

In years past, I probably would have passed on Simmons since I was already okay at LB and gone for one of the WRs and there is no way I would have considered Young there, I would have taken another dart throw on a WR or RB with a low probability of hitting. I can do that at pick 36 with just slightly lower odds of hitting. Hopefully the shift in mindset works.

All that to say thank you for the info - guess you can teach an old dog new tricks. The picks may not look as sexy as loading up on hyped up WRs, but I think it should have a more positive impact on my starting lineup which is the priority as I am in win now mode with this team.

Time will tell but sounds like you had a nice plan and stuck with it.  I think you did well hopefully the players perform as expected.  Good luck.

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