timschochet

I worry too much. The Democrats are going to win bigly in November.

1,267 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Completely disagree with you about impeachment here.  I don't care how it polls.  I don't care if it costs the Dems votes.  Every sane American should be screaming from the rooftops that we are in the midst of a national emergency for as long as Trump remains President. 

:lmao: seek help.

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31 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

I just Love statements like this.  Didn’t realize Sealthycat had the ability to speak for 320 million people.  Thank you for educating all of us on what we and everyone we know apparently think.   

You seem to do this daily though?

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2 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

You seem to do this daily though?

Please back up this statement.  

I don’t remember ever saying what the American people think.  So I would definitely love to see my daily statements to this effect.  

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

As I see it, the Democrats have 3 problems which may prevent them winning in both 2018 and 2020 (and lets define this: a win in 2018 means taking back the House and maybe the Senate. Any result short of taking back the House is a loss. A win in 2020 means beating Trump.) These are in no particular order: 

Nancy Pelosi She should have announced months ago that she was stepping down from leadership as it was time for new blood. She refused to do so and even said “I’m not going anywhere.” She’s easy fodder for Republicans to energize against. They no longer have Hillary or Obama, but Nancy is the next best thing. 

Impeachment This one should be an easy slam dunk for Democrats. All they have to do is say they support the Mueller investigation and that, once it’s been concluded, they will decide what to do based on his findings, etc. And then move on to other issues. Instead, several candidates are pledging impeachment in order to please the base. The public doesn’t want to hear about this. Most of them don’t care about this issue. There is some evidence that the focus on it might even increase some support for Trump. 

Tax Bill, Health Care, Infrastructure. Focus, dammit! Impeachment, gun control, racism, metoo, free trade, climate change, immigration, foreign policy, these are all important issues but they’re not what the majority of the public really care about when they go to the voting booth. They don’t like the tax bill. They don’t like Republican changes to Obamacare. They want the nation’s roads, highways, water systems fixed. These are the issues Democrats can and should win on, because their ideas are better than the Republicans and a million times better than Trump’s. But they need to FOCUS. 

There’s a clear path to victory here if they take it. I’m worried that they won’t. 

Democrats have the biggest layup in history but they’ve spent 18 months chasing conspiracy theories and ridiculing anybody who likes Trump. 

I fully expect to start seeing Kanye West - Russia conspiracy theories floating around, which is how you know they’ve lost it.

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

There is nothing on Trump and Russia

If by "nothing" you mean indictments and guilty pleas, I'd agree.  

 

2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

There is nothing on Trump and Russia, and Stormy  that was BEFORE Trump was President and has little merit.

This makes no sense.  If there was nothing, what is "that" in your sentence?  And I am also a bit shocked that a "law and order" guy would be so caviler regarding lying and obstruction of justice.  How does that work exactly?  I get that one could go with "he wasn't under oath" for the lying part, ok...low bar, whatever.  The obstruction part is the real puzzler to me.  

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53 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Maybe. But while I'd prioritize voting the right way (as a legislator) over winning an election, I'm not sure I'd prioritize sounding a fire alarm on the campaign trail over winning an election. The main purpose of even having a campaign trail is to win the election, so if sounding a fire alarm is counterproductive to that ... well, that makes things complicated. (I do acknowledge that sounding a fire alarm when there's a fire is important.)

I think running on an "Impeach Trump!" platform has the danger of motivating Trump's supporters to get out and vote. I'd prefer that they stay home. They are way more likely to stay home if the election seems to be about infrastructure. (Meanwhile, people who oppose Trump will not stay home because Trump will keep giving them plenty of reasons to be motivated.)

Bolded is my main concern.

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Maybe I just have seen poor examples, but of the half dozen or so candidates with campaign ads that have been sent my way (either directly  or indirectly such as in posts here) seem to have either been focused on health care or local to a district issues (sometimes an infrastructure project, sometime a local loss of jobs, etc.).   Maybe they are out there but I haven't seen the "stop Trump" messages.   Now maybe that is what is being seen watching 24 hour news - I can't do that, but the early campaign stuff I've seen have mirrored the few special election successes and focused on issues we a good bit of focus on issues that had a clear local component.

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1 minute ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

Maybe I just have seen poor examples, but of the half dozen or so candidates with campaign ads that have been sent my way (either directly  or indirectly such as in posts here) seem to have either been focused on health care or local to a district issues (sometimes an infrastructure project, sometime a local loss of jobs, etc.).   Maybe they are out there but I haven't seen the "stop Trump" messages.   Now maybe that is what is being seen watching 24 hour news - I can't do that, but the early campaign stuff I've seen have mirrored the few special election successes and focused on issues we a good bit of focus on issues that had a clear local component.

That's a good sign.

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

Impeachment This one is a joke and American people know it. There is nothing on Trump and Russia, and Stormy  that was BEFORE Trump was President and has little merit. People are sick of the witch hunt that's controlled by witches

There’s a clear path to victory here if they take it. I’m worried that they won’t. 

That's actually what the left SHOULD do. Attacking Trump and his administration on a personal level is a massive fail. It was in the election it is right now. But Trump is doing good things, and people see that. I think 2020 is shaping up an easy Trump win as it sits right now.

How do you now there's nothing to Russia? Witch hunt :lol:

Why is Donald lying about the payments to the pron star? How were these payments made?

We'll see what happens in the midterms. I think donald is looking at a huge ### kicking.

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1 hour ago, dkp993 said:

I just Love statements like this.  Didn’t realize Sealthycat had the ability to speak for 320 million people.  Thank you for educating all of us on what we and everyone we know apparently think.

no problem

I think American's hate to see side shows that are for nothing more than a witch hunt. Who wants to see that?

Hey, I'm all for Trump being impeached and out tomorrow and we can on Monday welcome in the new President of the United States, Mike Pence !

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9 minutes ago, timschochet said:

That's a good sign.

When it comes to winning elections I generally fear the worst.  Remember the Hillary thread where I kept worrying that Trump was uniquely capable of carrying states that other republicans could not.  My main  fear is that the masses will be too fatigued in November by so much nonsense that they shut everything out by election day.  Seems to me that for democrats to have their wave they need to be using tried and true grass roots campaigning as despite those that say otherwise personally here, I just don't see the "vote democrat until Trump is a distant memory" happening in any volume.   So I share your fears.  But the tiny sample size I have show strategically what you and I'd hope.  Now whether that sample is reflective of the big picture or not would be what remains to be seen.  And whether it even matters...

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24 minutes ago, The Commish said:

If by "nothing" you mean indictments and guilty pleas, I'd agree.  

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are? I thought it was Russia and Trump that was going to be the impeachments and now it might be some porn star hush money and if that falls through, maybe the Democrats can find an unpaid traffic ticket or something ?

Its a witch hunt, anything to get rid of Trump so Mike Pence can become President. GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

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17 minutes ago, The General said:

How do you now there's nothing to Russia? Witch hunt :lol:

Why is Donald lying about the payments to the pron star? How were these payments made?

We'll see what happens in the midterms. I think donald is looking at a huge ### kicking.

I don't think Trump will have any impact unless people are voting for him. Ya'll predicted a Hillary ### kicking, call me pessimistic about this prediction too

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7 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

no problem

I think American's hate to see side shows that are for nothing more than a witch hunt. Who wants to see that?

Hey, I'm all for Trump being impeached and out tomorrow and we can on Monday welcome in the new President of the United States, Mike Pence !

The issue as I see it is the which hunt Trump talking point that continues to get parroted.  To say most of America feels this way seems to me to be an over statement of vast per-portion.  Almost like the statement the other day that Trump had “overwhelming support” in the house for the peace prize.  It was 18 ppl.  

By I digress and apologize to Tim for the hijack.  There are other threads for this discussion.  

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17 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Hey, I'm all for Trump being impeached and out tomorrow and we can on Monday welcome in the new President of the United States, Mike Pence !

Careful, to some this will sound hysterical.

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12 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

:unsure:

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12 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

Well, not again.

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Can't the dems just run a loop of all of Trump's cronies and their crooked ways?  Maybe intersperse in another loop of all of Trump's lies?

I mean, if you see that and don't vote the d-bag out, there just no hope for this country and I guess I'm glad I'm old for the first time. 

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17 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

It's not like they questioned his birth certificate or anything...

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23 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are?

The first bold part concedes the second part (as an in-kind contribution) if we accept Cohen's and Trump's story that Trump isn't the one who paid her (contradicted yesterday by Guiliani, but which liar are we supposed to believe?).

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30 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are? I thought it was Russia and Trump that was going to be the impeachments and now it might be some porn star hush money and if that falls through, maybe the Democrats can find an unpaid traffic ticket or something ?

Its a witch hunt, anything to get rid of Trump so Mike Pence can become President. GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

No.  No, it doesn't.  Stop normalizing this ####. 

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Posted (edited)

34 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are? I thought it was Russia and Trump that was going to be the impeachments and now it might be some porn star hush money and if that falls through, maybe the Democrats can find an unpaid traffic ticket or something ?

Its a witch hunt, anything to get rid of Trump so Mike Pence can become President. GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

You need to go do some more cross referencing and come back with a bit more informed of what's going on it seems.  Right now, what's on the table as problematic to Trump as it pertains to these two things are:

1.  Obstruction of justice.

2.  Campaign contribution issues....it's not about the funds flowing out as much as the funds flowing in for the cover up in the first place.

And I'd like evidence of all this "happening often".

Edited by The Commish

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Democrats could screw up a one man second line. 

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Both parties are a mess.  The GOP is the much bigger mess at the moment, and if the Democrats had their #### together, they would dominate for years to come, but I doubt that will happen.  Losing to freaking Trump should have been the biggest wake-up call ever for them to get it together, but their failure to do so is sad and disheartening.  Can we get one party with a clue anytime soon, please??

 

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

I don't think Trump will have any impact unless people are voting for him. Ya'll predicted a Hillary ### kicking, call me pessimistic about this prediction too

Y’all thought Trump was going to lose as well. Trump thought he was going to lose.

In the elections so far there has been a big swing to Dems when compared to how those areas voted in the presidential election. Not the same thing but it’s a measurable.

People are absolutely paying attention to all these lies that piling up with Trump. It’s definitley going to have an impact. Dems are very capable of screwing it up but any decent candidate should be able to pound him.

 

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are? I thought it was Russia and Trump that was going to be the impeachments and now it might be some porn star hush money and if that falls through, maybe the Democrats can find an unpaid traffic ticket or something ?

Its a witch hunt, anything to get rid of Trump so Mike Pence can become President. GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

Donald sits down with Mueller and the Russia stuff is settled.

If him and his crew can stop lying and contradicting themselves for a week or two maybe they can get through the porn star stuff.

Aren’t Donald’s guys still researching Obama’s birth certificate? 

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1 hour ago, James Daulton said:

Can't the dems just run a loop of all of Trump's cronies and their crooked ways?  Maybe intersperse in another loop of all of Trump's lies?

I mean, if you see that and don't vote the d-bag out, there just no hope for this country and I guess I'm glad I'm old for the first time. 

It’s a pooch only the DNC can screw. 

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Of course they will.  The party of incompetence and denseness. 

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2 hours ago, Zow said:

No.  No, it doesn't.  Stop normalizing this ####. 

If every politician that paid off a hooker lost his job, the swamp would be empty

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6 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I desperately want the Dems to take back the government.  But standing up for the truth is even more important.  If you're not willing to say that Trump is unfit to be the President and should be removed immediately then you're just playing political games.

Im sure you considering half the country who voted for him and will go absolutely nuts if they believe system gets rigged.   

You are playing political games if you dont follow the rules.

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Maybe Republicans will add buoyancy to the Democratic party this year. Conner Lamb seems Republican light, and is exhibit A; and now Richard Painter is running as a Democrat for Al Franken's vacated seat. I'm down with electing any reasonable person who has the requisite integrity for the position (I ESPECIALLY FAVOR INDIVIDUALS NOT BEHOLDEN TO OLIGARCHS/PACS).  Do this, and policy should work itself out.

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Most people don’t care about the Russia angle as much as some would have you believe. If the Democrats make Russia and impeachment their main talking point, the Blue Wave turns into a ripple in a pond. 

Get middle class vote back. Talk about the massive offshoring that almost all medium and large companies are doing. Among other things.

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Posted (edited)

Keep talking health care. Make it tangible. Promise to lower the age of Medicare by one year every year that they have a majority in Congress. It's gradual, doesn't put the insurance industry out of business immediately, yet affects 2-3 million voters every year, voters who care about affordable health care. And will get the attention of everyone who doesn't yet qualify.

Our Republican friends will fight this tooth and nail. They know that once they lose out on a single payer system that they're never getting the old way back. It's time for the big fight. But Dems have to do it right.

Edited by roadkill1292

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1 minute ago, roadkill1292 said:

Keep talking health care. Make it tangible. Promise to lower the age of Medicare by one year every year that they have a majority in Congress. It's gradual, doesn't put the insurance industry out of business immediately, yet affects 2-3 million voters every year, voters who care about affordable health care. And will get the attention of everyone who doesn't yet qualify.

Our Republican friends will fight this tooth and nail. They know that once they lose out on a single payer system that they're never getting the old way back. It's time for the big fight. But Dems have to do it right.

I’m not 100% sure about your specific proposal, but of course the Democrats should keep talking health care. The Republicans’ schizophrenic position on this issue is completely untenable, and the polls show the public is firmly supportive of more Obamacare, not less. Democrats should be pounding this issue, and infrastructure, and the disastrous tax bill, if they do they’ll get their wave. 

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A couple of articles. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/02/21/a-blue-wave-how-trump-is-helping-democrats-win-in-unlikely-places/?utm_term=.4a9ddf3febfb

Second, Trump is not figuring heavily into the campaigns these candidates have run. The Beltway and Twittersphere are consumed with debates over whether Democrats should or should not be speaking directly to anti-Trump anger, or whether their failure to more directly attack Trump’s tax plan is helping it (and Trump himself) edge up in popularity. But Post tells me that these candidates are mostly “campaigning on hyper-local issues.”

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2018/0314/In-a-Trump-country-squeaker-some-Democrats-see-a-blueprint

But in politics, the world never sits still. Democrat Conor Lamb’s apparent narrow win Tuesday in a special House election in western Pennsylvania, in a district that Mr. Trump had won by almost 20 points, shows that there’s a way for the party to win those voters back: Champion their issues.

Workers’ rights, wages, and protecting pensions, Social Security, and Medicare – all played to Mr. Lamb’s advantage...

 

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In terms of 2020: I wold prefer a moderate to a progressive, but that distinction is less important than the main attribute our candidate needs to have: maturity. We need a grownup. Doesn’t have to be old, but does have to have an aura of responsibility, dignity, and competence. The main underlying winning message in 2020 should be, IMO: tired of all the drama? 

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11 hours ago, quickhands said:

Im sure you considering half the country who voted for him and will go absolutely nuts if they believe system gets rigged.   

You are playing political games if you dont follow the rules.

Impeachment is not against the rules.

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Impeachment is not against the rules.

How soon they forget. Where would Willy Clinton's transgressions appear in a ranked list of Donald's?

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3 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

How soon they forget. Where would Willy Clinton's transgressions appear in a ranked list of Donald's?

Well they got clinton for lying under oath.   In case you forget he lost his law licence.  Generally, a big deal.    Banging a 20 something intern in the oval office.  Vs banging a porn star in your hotel.

Can i get a top five of trumps so i rank them.

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