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timschochet

I worry too much. Update: I’m feeling a lot better!

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As I see it, the Democrats have 3 problems which may prevent them winning in both 2018 and 2020 (and lets define this: a win in 2018 means taking back the House and maybe the Senate. Any result short of taking back the House is a loss. A win in 2020 means beating Trump.) These are in no particular order: 

Nancy Pelosi She should have announced months ago that she was stepping down from leadership as it was time for new blood. She refused to do so and even said “I’m not going anywhere.” She’s easy fodder for Republicans to energize against. They no longer have Hillary or Obama, but Nancy is the next best thing. 

Impeachment This one should be an easy slam dunk for Democrats. All they have to do is say they support the Mueller investigation and that, once it’s been concluded, they will decide what to do based on his findings, etc. And then move on to other issues. Instead, several candidates are pledging impeachment in order to please the base. The public doesn’t want to hear about this. Most of them don’t care about this issue. There is some evidence that the focus on it might even increase some support for Trump. 

Tax Bill, Health Care, Infrastructure. Focus, dammit! Impeachment, gun control, racism, metoo, free trade, climate change, immigration, foreign policy, these are all important issues but they’re not what the majority of the public really care about when they go to the voting booth. They don’t like the tax bill. They don’t like Republican changes to Obamacare. They want the nation’s roads, highways, water systems fixed. These are the issues Democrats can and should win on, because their ideas are better than the Republicans and a million times better than Trump’s. But they need to FOCUS. 

There’s a clear path to victory here if they take it. I’m worried that they won’t. 

Edited by timschochet
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Completely disagree with you about impeachment here.  I don't care how it polls.  I don't care if it costs the Dems votes.  Every sane American should be screaming from the rooftops that we are in the midst of a national emergency for as long as Trump remains President. 

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Completely disagree with you about impeachment here.  I don't care how it polls.  I don't care if it costs the Dems votes.  Every sane American should be screaming from the rooftops that we are in the midst of a national emergency for as long as Trump remains President. 

There’s a process. If Trump committed wrongdoing, Mueller will let us know. In the meantime why should Democrats pledge to anything? 

If you tell the public that a Democratic House is going to spend the bulk of its time investigating Donald Trump, IMO you’re going to lose in November. It’s that simple. 

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

There’s a process. If Trump committed wrongdoing, Mueller will let us know. In the meantime why should Democrats pledge to anything? 

If you tell the public that a Democratic House is going to spend the bulk of its time investigating Donald Trump, IMO you’re going to lose in November. It’s that simple. 

I desperately want the Dems to take back the government.  But standing up for the truth is even more important.  If you're not willing to say that Trump is unfit to be the President and should be removed immediately then you're just playing political games.

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Nancy Pelosi - she's loved by Democrats or she'd not have been elected.

Impeachment This one is a joke and American people know it. There is nothing on Trump and Russia, and Stormy  that was BEFORE Trump was President and has little merit. People are sick of the witch hunt that's controlled by witches

Tax Bill, Health Care, Infrastructure. Focus, dammit! Impeachment, gun control, racism, metoo, free trade, climate change, immigration, foreign policy, these are all important issues but they’re not what the majority of the public really care about when they go to the voting booth. They don’t like the tax bill. They don’t like Republican changes to Obamacare. They want the nation’s roads, highways, water systems fixed. These are the issues Democrats can and should win on, because their ideas are better than the Republicans and a million times better than Trump’s. But they need to FOCUS. 

There’s a clear path to victory here if they take it. I’m worried that they won’t. 

That's actually what the left SHOULD do. Attacking Trump and his administration on a personal level is a massive fail. It was in the election it is right now. But Trump is doing good things, and people see that. I think 2020 is shaping up an easy Trump win as it sits right now.

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9 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Completely disagree with you about impeachment here.  I don't care how it polls.  I don't care if it costs the Dems votes.  Every sane American should be screaming from the rooftops that we are in the midst of a national emergency for as long as Trump remains President. 

:goodposting:

 

The Democrats have been playing nice for far too long. And what has it gotten them? It's gotten them completely out of power.

If the tables were turned, the GOP's soldiers would be on TV every single day talking about impeachment jail for Hillary.

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I also want to note that, in my argument against pushing for impeachment, I’m siding WITH Nancy Pelosi. I agree with her about this, even though I don’t think she should be the person in charge. 

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That the Democratic Party has yet to put a new, attractive Voice of Opposition forward in a year & a half tells one all they need to know about the Democratic Party

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1 minute ago, Skoo said:

 

If the tables were turned, the GOP's soldiers would be on TV every single day talking about impeachment jail for Hillary.

That’s true. And they might even win with it, as they did in 2010 and 2014.

But the Democratic voter is not the same as the Republican voter. The former tends to be more nuanced, slightly less partisan, reluctant to convict without evidence. Plus you’ve got independents as well that we need in order to win. 

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2 minutes ago, Skoo said:

:goodposting:

 

The Democrats have been playing nice for far too long. And what has it gotten them? It's gotten them completely out of power.

If the tables were turned, the GOP's soldiers would be on TV every single day talking about impeachment jail for Hillary.

Yup. I don't want to see the Democrats sink to the repugnant level currently occupied by the GOP but it wouldn't hurt them to learn a thing or two from how the Republicans have been crushing them for years and flip the script. 

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1 minute ago, packersfan said:

Yup. I don't want to see the Democrats sink to the repugnant level currently occupied by the GOP but it wouldn't hurt them to learn a thing or two from how the Republicans have been crushing them for years and flip the script. 

Whether politically it's a good move or not, it's just the right thing to do.

The more we let all of this stuff slide, the more we normalize it.

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What is “telling the truth” and “not letting stuff slide” specifically mean in this instance? 

I don’t think it’s dishonest to say that we need to wait for the Mueller Report. Unless it’s already clear to you that Trump committed impeachable offenses and that you don’t need Mueller to reach a conclusion; impeach him now. Because I don’t find that compelling, do you? 

Whats wrong with saying, “Donald Trump is an awful President who may have broken the law. If you elect me I will oppose him on these important issues, though I will work with him when I can since he is, after all, the President. If it’s shown to me that he broke the law I will vote to impeach and remove him, but not until then.” How is that dishonest? 

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28 minutes ago, timschochet said:

There’s a process. If Trump committed wrongdoing, Mueller will let us know. In the meantime why should Democrats pledge to anything? 

If you tell the public that a Democratic House is going to spend the bulk of its time investigating Donald Trump, IMO you’re going to lose in November. It’s that simple. 

Impeachment should happen now.

Impeachment related to obstruction or collusion or money-laundering can wait until Mueller and the others finish investigating those things.

But impeachment for violating the Emoluments Clause, for having conflicts of interest stemming from his refusal to divest his business holdings, and for improper use of the pardon power should all happen right now.

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3 minutes ago, timschochet said:

What is “telling the truth” and “not letting stuff slide” specifically mean in this instance? 

I don’t think it’s dishonest to say that we need to wait for the Mueller Report. Unless it’s already clear to you that Trump committed impeachable offenses and that you don’t need Mueller to reach a conclusion; impeach him now. Because I don’t find that compelling, do you? 

Whats wrong with saying, “Donald Trump is an awful President who may have broken the law. If you elect me I will oppose him on these important issues, though I will work with him when I can since he is, after all, the President. If it’s shown to me that he broke the law I will vote to impeach and remove him, but not until then.” How is that dishonest? 

He has.

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8 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

Democrats are putting all their eggs into the Russian collusion basket.  This won't end well for them.

To be fair, you guys also said that like 19 indictments and 5 guilty pleas ago.

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3 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Impeachment should happen now.

Everybody should tell all their friends to get behind this idea.

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4 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Impeachment should happen now.

Impeachment related to obstruction or collusion or money-laundering can wait until Mueller and the others finish investigating those things.

But impeachment for violating the Emoluments Clause, for having conflicts of interest stemming from his refusal to divest his business holdings, and for improper use of the pardon power should all happen right now.

Oh, you were going serious.

I think he should be impeached for using Twitter as the Cabinet.

Sorry, carry on.

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5 minutes ago, Skoo said:

To be fair, you guys also said that like 19 indictments and 5 guilty pleas ago.

Nothing on Trump though, which is what the public cares about in regards to the investigation and election

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Funny in same the same week we have a Prez where his hardened supporters want to give him the Nobel Peace Prize, and likely a larger contingent wanting him impeached.  Wacko world.

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15 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Impeachment should happen now.

Impeachment related to obstruction or collusion or money-laundering can wait until Mueller and the others finish investigating those things.

But impeachment for violating the Emoluments Clause, for having conflicts of interest stemming from his refusal to divest his business holdings, and for improper use of the pardon power should all happen right now.

We don’t live in a perfect world and we shouldn’t pretend that we do. 

People are criticizing me for “playing games” here, but if the Democrats campaign on impeaching Trump based on emoluments, even before the Mueller Report, then they’re the ones playing games. And even if they win the House and impeach Trump, they’re still playing games because impeachment without removal is little more than a political game. What’s worse is that it would be seen as some sort of vindication for Trump. If you’re going to impeach him you’d better have 67 senators ready to remove him; otherwise a censure would be better. Personally I don’t believe Trump will ever be impeached and removed. 

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14 minutes ago, timschochet said:

People are criticizing me for “playing games” here, but if the Democrats campaign on impeaching Trump based on emoluments, even before the Mueller Report, then they’re the ones playing games. And even if they win the House and impeach Trump, they’re still playing games because impeachment without removal is little more than a political game. What’s worse is that it would be seen as some sort of vindication for Trump. If you’re going to impeach him you’d better have 67 senators ready to remove him; otherwise a censure would be better. Personally I don’t believe Trump will ever be impeached and removed.

Censure would be good as well, but impeachment for the things I mentioned is well grounded, IMO, not frivolous.

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Just now, Maurile Tremblay said:

Censure would be good as well, but impeachment for the things I mentioned is well grounded, IMO, not frivolous.

Theoretically it's not frivolous. If it's attempted, and he is not removed, it will be perceived as frivolous.

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There is no doubt in my mind that the DNC will somehow manage to lose even with this mountain of information against Trump and the RNC.   The DNC does not have the killer instinct to put their foot on the RNC's neck and snap it.  Also, even if or when Stormy Daniels shows the naked pics of Donald Trump his supporters and the RNC will spin it and make her into the bad guy and he was just a guy who was too weak to fight off her sinful ways.   

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Also to restate my main point- I am not arguing that the Democrats should not impeach Donald Trump if he truly deserves impeachment. I am arguing that they shouldn't focus their campaigns on it. In order to do anything, they need to win first, and I simply don't believe this is a winning issue.

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

Theoretically it's not frivolous. If it's attempted, and he is not removed, it will be perceived as frivolous.

People, including federal legislators, should try to do their jobs competently without regard to how it will be perceived.

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Just now, Maurile Tremblay said:

People, including federal legislators, should try to do their jobs competently without regard to how it will be perceived.

That is not the world we live in, or ever will. Unfortunately.

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Theoretically it's not frivolous. If it's attempted, and he is not removed, it will be perceived as frivolous.

Once you try to impeach on one thing can’t you just bring up more later as new information emerges?

Or is it like a regular trial?

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Just now, timschochet said:

Also to restate my main point- I am not arguing that the Democrats should not impeach Donald Trump if he truly deserves impeachment. I am arguing that they shouldn't focus their campaigns on it. In order to do anything, they need to win first, and I simply don't believe this is a winning issue.

I agree that impeachment shouldn't be a campaign issue. If I were running for Congress and a reporter asked me whether I'd vote to impeach Trump, I'd answer in the affirmative because that's the honest answer. But I wouldn't bring the issue up myself. I would focus on infrastructure, personally, or something similarly boring. Nuts and bolts, blocking and tackling, fixing potholes... But without any fanfare, I would also vote to impeach.

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Just now, NREC34 said:

Once you try to impeach on one thing can’t you just bring up more later as new information emerges?

Or is it like a regular trial?

Step one- a House committee is created to consider items for impeachment.

Step two- the House committee votes a resolution of impeachment, including several items.  (Hopefully, this is not a party line vote. If it is you're already screwed.)

Step three- The Speaker decides to schedule a vote for the House as a whole.  The bill containing several articles of impeachment is all voted on at once. If a majority vote to impeach the President he is impeached.

Step four- the Speaker appoints "managers"- a number of Congressmen (in the case of Johnson, there were 7, in the case of Clinton, there were 4) to head to the Senate and act as prosecutors. The President selects his own "managers" to act as defense attorneys.

Step five- The Chief of the Supreme Court acts as judge over a "trial" before the Senate as jury. What this "trial" is like is open to question. In the case of Andrew Johnson, it was a full blown trial, with testimony, evidence, witnessess, cross-examination, just like a courtroom trial. In the case of Bill Clinton almost none of this occurred; instead, the House Managers argued the "case" like politicians, and the President's Managers gave speeches as well.

Step Six- the Senate conducts a  series of roll call votes.  Each of the articles of impeachment is voted on separately, In order to remove the President, 67 votes in the affirmative are required for any of the articles.

What I just described to you is tradition, based on the only two times this has ever been done (and a number of times in the past that senators and judges have been impeached.) So I'm not sure how much of this is law and how much is custom.

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So Tim are you saying that it’s such a long and arduous process you would only want to try it once and be sure you get it right the first time?

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The main problem for 2020 seems to be identifying the right candidate. Anyone but Trump won't work, I'm afraid. They will, like HRC needed to and never did, need to articulate why we should vote for the candidate. Not just a negative referendum on Trump.

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

 

Impeachment This one is a joke and American people know it. There is nothing on Trump and Russia, and Stormy  that was BEFORE Trump was President and has little merit. People are sick of the witch hunt that's controlled by witches

 

I just Love statements like this.  Didn’t realize Sealthycat had the ability to speak for 320 million people.  Thank you for educating all of us on what we and everyone we know apparently think.   

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I'm not gonna delve terribly deeply into the actual policy points and specifics Tim is describing here, but I will say that I am not at all convinced that there's going to be a "blue wave" in November.  For the past few months, it has read to me that a lot of people are way overconfident in the D's ability to steal back a bunch of congressional seats in November (not necessarily on this board, just in general).  

I think the last 3 years or so of US politics has shown that the old paradigm just doesn't mean anything anymore.  We have a president who, leaving the "red meat" aside for a minute, appears generally mentally unfit for the presidency, is largely incoherent, and may have committed serious crimes, yet still polls around 40%.

The GOP is largely toxic among young voters, sure, but the base is still strong.  I have yet to really see any cohesion among the Democratic Party, and have yet to see real rising stars come to the forefront as challengers to Trump.  Just rolling out a bunch of journeyman candidates on a platform of "Trump sucks" just might not be good enough in November.

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16 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I agree that impeachment shouldn't be a campaign issue. If I were running for Congress and a reporter asked me whether I'd vote to impeach Trump, I'd answer in the affirmative because that's the honest answer. But I wouldn't bring the issue up myself. I would focus on infrastructure, personally, or something similarly boring. Nuts and bolts, blocking and tackling, fixing potholes... But without any fanfare, I would also vote to impeach.

I would bring up the issue every single day in every setting possible.  Talking about infrastructure right now feels like a homeowner talking about redoing the bathroom at the same time his house is on fire.

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20 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I would bring up the issue every single day in every setting possible.  Talking about infrastructure right now feels like a homeowner talking about redoing the bathroom at the same time his house is on fire.

Maybe. But while I'd prioritize voting the right way (as a legislator) over winning an election, I'm not sure I'd prioritize sounding a fire alarm on the campaign trail over winning an election. The main purpose of even having a campaign trail is to win the election, so if sounding a fire alarm is counterproductive to that ... well, that makes things complicated. (I do acknowledge that sounding a fire alarm when there's a fire is important.)

I think running on an "Impeach Trump!" platform has the danger of motivating Trump's supporters to get out and vote. I'd prefer that they stay home. They are way more likely to stay home if the election seems to be about infrastructure. (Meanwhile, people who oppose Trump will not stay home because Trump will keep giving them plenty of reasons to be motivated.)

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1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Completely disagree with you about impeachment here.  I don't care how it polls.  I don't care if it costs the Dems votes.  Every sane American should be screaming from the rooftops that we are in the midst of a national emergency for as long as Trump remains President. 

:lmao: seek help.

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31 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

I just Love statements like this.  Didn’t realize Sealthycat had the ability to speak for 320 million people.  Thank you for educating all of us on what we and everyone we know apparently think.   

You seem to do this daily though?

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2 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

You seem to do this daily though?

Please back up this statement.  

I don’t remember ever saying what the American people think.  So I would definitely love to see my daily statements to this effect.  

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

As I see it, the Democrats have 3 problems which may prevent them winning in both 2018 and 2020 (and lets define this: a win in 2018 means taking back the House and maybe the Senate. Any result short of taking back the House is a loss. A win in 2020 means beating Trump.) These are in no particular order: 

Nancy Pelosi She should have announced months ago that she was stepping down from leadership as it was time for new blood. She refused to do so and even said “I’m not going anywhere.” She’s easy fodder for Republicans to energize against. They no longer have Hillary or Obama, but Nancy is the next best thing. 

Impeachment This one should be an easy slam dunk for Democrats. All they have to do is say they support the Mueller investigation and that, once it’s been concluded, they will decide what to do based on his findings, etc. And then move on to other issues. Instead, several candidates are pledging impeachment in order to please the base. The public doesn’t want to hear about this. Most of them don’t care about this issue. There is some evidence that the focus on it might even increase some support for Trump. 

Tax Bill, Health Care, Infrastructure. Focus, dammit! Impeachment, gun control, racism, metoo, free trade, climate change, immigration, foreign policy, these are all important issues but they’re not what the majority of the public really care about when they go to the voting booth. They don’t like the tax bill. They don’t like Republican changes to Obamacare. They want the nation’s roads, highways, water systems fixed. These are the issues Democrats can and should win on, because their ideas are better than the Republicans and a million times better than Trump’s. But they need to FOCUS. 

There’s a clear path to victory here if they take it. I’m worried that they won’t. 

Democrats have the biggest layup in history but they’ve spent 18 months chasing conspiracy theories and ridiculing anybody who likes Trump. 

I fully expect to start seeing Kanye West - Russia conspiracy theories floating around, which is how you know they’ve lost it.

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

There is nothing on Trump and Russia

If by "nothing" you mean indictments and guilty pleas, I'd agree.  

 

2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

There is nothing on Trump and Russia, and Stormy  that was BEFORE Trump was President and has little merit.

This makes no sense.  If there was nothing, what is "that" in your sentence?  And I am also a bit shocked that a "law and order" guy would be so caviler regarding lying and obstruction of justice.  How does that work exactly?  I get that one could go with "he wasn't under oath" for the lying part, ok...low bar, whatever.  The obstruction part is the real puzzler to me.  

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53 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Maybe. But while I'd prioritize voting the right way (as a legislator) over winning an election, I'm not sure I'd prioritize sounding a fire alarm on the campaign trail over winning an election. The main purpose of even having a campaign trail is to win the election, so if sounding a fire alarm is counterproductive to that ... well, that makes things complicated. (I do acknowledge that sounding a fire alarm when there's a fire is important.)

I think running on an "Impeach Trump!" platform has the danger of motivating Trump's supporters to get out and vote. I'd prefer that they stay home. They are way more likely to stay home if the election seems to be about infrastructure. (Meanwhile, people who oppose Trump will not stay home because Trump will keep giving them plenty of reasons to be motivated.)

Bolded is my main concern.

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Maybe I just have seen poor examples, but of the half dozen or so candidates with campaign ads that have been sent my way (either directly  or indirectly such as in posts here) seem to have either been focused on health care or local to a district issues (sometimes an infrastructure project, sometime a local loss of jobs, etc.).   Maybe they are out there but I haven't seen the "stop Trump" messages.   Now maybe that is what is being seen watching 24 hour news - I can't do that, but the early campaign stuff I've seen have mirrored the few special election successes and focused on issues we a good bit of focus on issues that had a clear local component.

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1 minute ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

Maybe I just have seen poor examples, but of the half dozen or so candidates with campaign ads that have been sent my way (either directly  or indirectly such as in posts here) seem to have either been focused on health care or local to a district issues (sometimes an infrastructure project, sometime a local loss of jobs, etc.).   Maybe they are out there but I haven't seen the "stop Trump" messages.   Now maybe that is what is being seen watching 24 hour news - I can't do that, but the early campaign stuff I've seen have mirrored the few special election successes and focused on issues we a good bit of focus on issues that had a clear local component.

That's a good sign.

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

Impeachment This one is a joke and American people know it. There is nothing on Trump and Russia, and Stormy  that was BEFORE Trump was President and has little merit. People are sick of the witch hunt that's controlled by witches

There’s a clear path to victory here if they take it. I’m worried that they won’t. 

That's actually what the left SHOULD do. Attacking Trump and his administration on a personal level is a massive fail. It was in the election it is right now. But Trump is doing good things, and people see that. I think 2020 is shaping up an easy Trump win as it sits right now.

How do you now there's nothing to Russia? Witch hunt :lol:

Why is Donald lying about the payments to the pron star? How were these payments made?

We'll see what happens in the midterms. I think donald is looking at a huge ### kicking.

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1 hour ago, dkp993 said:

I just Love statements like this.  Didn’t realize Sealthycat had the ability to speak for 320 million people.  Thank you for educating all of us on what we and everyone we know apparently think.

no problem

I think American's hate to see side shows that are for nothing more than a witch hunt. Who wants to see that?

Hey, I'm all for Trump being impeached and out tomorrow and we can on Monday welcome in the new President of the United States, Mike Pence !

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