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timschochet

I worry too much. Update: Trump got thumped

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9 minutes ago, timschochet said:

That's a good sign.

When it comes to winning elections I generally fear the worst.  Remember the Hillary thread where I kept worrying that Trump was uniquely capable of carrying states that other republicans could not.  My main  fear is that the masses will be too fatigued in November by so much nonsense that they shut everything out by election day.  Seems to me that for democrats to have their wave they need to be using tried and true grass roots campaigning as despite those that say otherwise personally here, I just don't see the "vote democrat until Trump is a distant memory" happening in any volume.   So I share your fears.  But the tiny sample size I have show strategically what you and I'd hope.  Now whether that sample is reflective of the big picture or not would be what remains to be seen.  And whether it even matters...

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24 minutes ago, The Commish said:

If by "nothing" you mean indictments and guilty pleas, I'd agree.  

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are? I thought it was Russia and Trump that was going to be the impeachments and now it might be some porn star hush money and if that falls through, maybe the Democrats can find an unpaid traffic ticket or something ?

Its a witch hunt, anything to get rid of Trump so Mike Pence can become President. GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

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17 minutes ago, The General said:

How do you now there's nothing to Russia? Witch hunt :lol:

Why is Donald lying about the payments to the pron star? How were these payments made?

We'll see what happens in the midterms. I think donald is looking at a huge ### kicking.

I don't think Trump will have any impact unless people are voting for him. Ya'll predicted a Hillary ### kicking, call me pessimistic about this prediction too

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7 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

no problem

I think American's hate to see side shows that are for nothing more than a witch hunt. Who wants to see that?

Hey, I'm all for Trump being impeached and out tomorrow and we can on Monday welcome in the new President of the United States, Mike Pence !

The issue as I see it is the which hunt Trump talking point that continues to get parroted.  To say most of America feels this way seems to me to be an over statement of vast per-portion.  Almost like the statement the other day that Trump had “overwhelming support” in the house for the peace prize.  It was 18 ppl.  

By I digress and apologize to Tim for the hijack.  There are other threads for this discussion.  

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17 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Hey, I'm all for Trump being impeached and out tomorrow and we can on Monday welcome in the new President of the United States, Mike Pence !

Careful, to some this will sound hysterical.

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12 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

Well, not again.

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Can't the dems just run a loop of all of Trump's cronies and their crooked ways?  Maybe intersperse in another loop of all of Trump's lies?

I mean, if you see that and don't vote the d-bag out, there just no hope for this country and I guess I'm glad I'm old for the first time. 

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17 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

It's not like they questioned his birth certificate or anything...

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23 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are?

The first bold part concedes the second part (as an in-kind contribution) if we accept Cohen's and Trump's story that Trump isn't the one who paid her (contradicted yesterday by Guiliani, but which liar are we supposed to believe?).

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30 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are? I thought it was Russia and Trump that was going to be the impeachments and now it might be some porn star hush money and if that falls through, maybe the Democrats can find an unpaid traffic ticket or something ?

Its a witch hunt, anything to get rid of Trump so Mike Pence can become President. GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

No.  No, it doesn't.  Stop normalizing this ####. 

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34 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are? I thought it was Russia and Trump that was going to be the impeachments and now it might be some porn star hush money and if that falls through, maybe the Democrats can find an unpaid traffic ticket or something ?

Its a witch hunt, anything to get rid of Trump so Mike Pence can become President. GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

You need to go do some more cross referencing and come back with a bit more informed of what's going on it seems.  Right now, what's on the table as problematic to Trump as it pertains to these two things are:

1.  Obstruction of justice.

2.  Campaign contribution issues....it's not about the funds flowing out as much as the funds flowing in for the cover up in the first place.

And I'd like evidence of all this "happening often".

Edited by The Commish

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Both parties are a mess.  The GOP is the much bigger mess at the moment, and if the Democrats had their #### together, they would dominate for years to come, but I doubt that will happen.  Losing to freaking Trump should have been the biggest wake-up call ever for them to get it together, but their failure to do so is sad and disheartening.  Can we get one party with a clue anytime soon, please??

 

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

I don't think Trump will have any impact unless people are voting for him. Ya'll predicted a Hillary ### kicking, call me pessimistic about this prediction too

Y’all thought Trump was going to lose as well. Trump thought he was going to lose.

In the elections so far there has been a big swing to Dems when compared to how those areas voted in the presidential election. Not the same thing but it’s a measurable.

People are absolutely paying attention to all these lies that piling up with Trump. It’s definitley going to have an impact. Dems are very capable of screwing it up but any decent candidate should be able to pound him.

 

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

Trump will not go down on anything related to Russia and he won't on Stormy Daniels either.

The "THAT" is the Stormy Daniels story which at worst is Trump banging a porn star .... 12 years ago ... and later is lawyer having to pay hush money to her (1 month before election, because they knew if she went to the papers it'd could hurt the voters/polls) . Happens often

What's the "scandal" ? It would have to be proven this was campaign money to be anything worthwhile, what do you think the chances of that are? I thought it was Russia and Trump that was going to be the impeachments and now it might be some porn star hush money and if that falls through, maybe the Democrats can find an unpaid traffic ticket or something ?

Its a witch hunt, anything to get rid of Trump so Mike Pence can become President. GOP hated Obama, but they didn't reach and didn't witch hunt.

Donald sits down with Mueller and the Russia stuff is settled.

If him and his crew can stop lying and contradicting themselves for a week or two maybe they can get through the porn star stuff.

Aren’t Donald’s guys still researching Obama’s birth certificate? 

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1 hour ago, James Daulton said:

Can't the dems just run a loop of all of Trump's cronies and their crooked ways?  Maybe intersperse in another loop of all of Trump's lies?

I mean, if you see that and don't vote the d-bag out, there just no hope for this country and I guess I'm glad I'm old for the first time. 

It’s a pooch only the DNC can screw. 

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Of course they will.  The party of incompetence and denseness. 

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2 hours ago, Zow said:

No.  No, it doesn't.  Stop normalizing this ####. 

If every politician that paid off a hooker lost his job, the swamp would be empty

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6 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I desperately want the Dems to take back the government.  But standing up for the truth is even more important.  If you're not willing to say that Trump is unfit to be the President and should be removed immediately then you're just playing political games.

Im sure you considering half the country who voted for him and will go absolutely nuts if they believe system gets rigged.   

You are playing political games if you dont follow the rules.

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Maybe Republicans will add buoyancy to the Democratic party this year. Conner Lamb seems Republican light, and is exhibit A; and now Richard Painter is running as a Democrat for Al Franken's vacated seat. I'm down with electing any reasonable person who has the requisite integrity for the position (I ESPECIALLY FAVOR INDIVIDUALS NOT BEHOLDEN TO OLIGARCHS/PACS).  Do this, and policy should work itself out.

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Most people don’t care about the Russia angle as much as some would have you believe. If the Democrats make Russia and impeachment their main talking point, the Blue Wave turns into a ripple in a pond. 

Get middle class vote back. Talk about the massive offshoring that almost all medium and large companies are doing. Among other things.

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Keep talking health care. Make it tangible. Promise to lower the age of Medicare by one year every year that they have a majority in Congress. It's gradual, doesn't put the insurance industry out of business immediately, yet affects 2-3 million voters every year, voters who care about affordable health care. And will get the attention of everyone who doesn't yet qualify.

Our Republican friends will fight this tooth and nail. They know that once they lose out on a single payer system that they're never getting the old way back. It's time for the big fight. But Dems have to do it right.

Edited by roadkill1292

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1 minute ago, roadkill1292 said:

Keep talking health care. Make it tangible. Promise to lower the age of Medicare by one year every year that they have a majority in Congress. It's gradual, doesn't put the insurance industry out of business immediately, yet affects 2-3 million voters every year, voters who care about affordable health care. And will get the attention of everyone who doesn't yet qualify.

Our Republican friends will fight this tooth and nail. They know that once they lose out on a single payer system that they're never getting the old way back. It's time for the big fight. But Dems have to do it right.

I’m not 100% sure about your specific proposal, but of course the Democrats should keep talking health care. The Republicans’ schizophrenic position on this issue is completely untenable, and the polls show the public is firmly supportive of more Obamacare, not less. Democrats should be pounding this issue, and infrastructure, and the disastrous tax bill, if they do they’ll get their wave. 

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A couple of articles. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/02/21/a-blue-wave-how-trump-is-helping-democrats-win-in-unlikely-places/?utm_term=.4a9ddf3febfb

Second, Trump is not figuring heavily into the campaigns these candidates have run. The Beltway and Twittersphere are consumed with debates over whether Democrats should or should not be speaking directly to anti-Trump anger, or whether their failure to more directly attack Trump’s tax plan is helping it (and Trump himself) edge up in popularity. But Post tells me that these candidates are mostly “campaigning on hyper-local issues.”

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2018/0314/In-a-Trump-country-squeaker-some-Democrats-see-a-blueprint

But in politics, the world never sits still. Democrat Conor Lamb’s apparent narrow win Tuesday in a special House election in western Pennsylvania, in a district that Mr. Trump had won by almost 20 points, shows that there’s a way for the party to win those voters back: Champion their issues.

Workers’ rights, wages, and protecting pensions, Social Security, and Medicare – all played to Mr. Lamb’s advantage...

 

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In terms of 2020: I wold prefer a moderate to a progressive, but that distinction is less important than the main attribute our candidate needs to have: maturity. We need a grownup. Doesn’t have to be old, but does have to have an aura of responsibility, dignity, and competence. The main underlying winning message in 2020 should be, IMO: tired of all the drama? 

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11 hours ago, quickhands said:

Im sure you considering half the country who voted for him and will go absolutely nuts if they believe system gets rigged.   

You are playing political games if you dont follow the rules.

Impeachment is not against the rules.

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Impeachment is not against the rules.

How soon they forget. Where would Willy Clinton's transgressions appear in a ranked list of Donald's?

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3 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

How soon they forget. Where would Willy Clinton's transgressions appear in a ranked list of Donald's?

Well they got clinton for lying under oath.   In case you forget he lost his law licence.  Generally, a big deal.    Banging a 20 something intern in the oval office.  Vs banging a porn star in your hotel.

Can i get a top five of trumps so i rank them.

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7 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

How soon they forget. Where would Willy Clinton's transgressions appear in a ranked list of Donald's?

Wouldn't crack the Top 500. 

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5 minutes ago, packersfan said:

Wouldn't crack the Top 500. 

Having Foster killed would be up there  pretty high though. 

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1 minute ago, NREC34 said:

Having Foster killed would be up there  pretty high though. 

True and never forget Michelle Obama murdered Joan Rivers so we can't let Obama off scott free here.

 

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53 minutes ago, timschochet said:

In terms of 2020: I wold prefer a moderate to a progressive, but that distinction is less important than the main attribute our candidate needs to have: maturity. We need a grownup. Doesn’t have to be old, but does have to have an aura of responsibility, dignity, and competence. The main underlying winning message in 2020 should be, IMO: tired of all the drama? 

Frankly, I'm not really sure America is tired of the drama.  Just look at Twitter, every news channel, every news website, whatever.  It's political drama 24/7, and people still eat it up.

The Democrats trotted out 2 grownups last election, and the Republicans ran out a bunch of their own, and they all got their asses handed to em (yes, Hillary won the popular vote, she still lost overall).  Running grownups doesn't mean anything...many Americans seemingly don't really care if someone's a grown-up.  So long as Trump continues to connect with a major subset of voters, and he's still doing so, it's not easy to topple him.

Unemployment numbers came out this morning.....down to 3.9%.  Trump controlled the jobs narrative all 2016 election season and ultimately it helped carry him to victory.  We can debate whether any Trump policies are actually helping anything here, and I think there's a legitimate concern that these tax cuts will have long-lasting negative effects, but it's not like the economy has tanked since he's taken office.  The Dow is up, unemployment is down.  That's the kind of thing the GOP is going to try to carry (if they're smart, at least) to victories this fall.

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5 minutes ago, Steve Tasker said:

Frankly, I'm not really sure America is tired of the drama.  Just look at Twitter, every news channel, every news website, whatever.  It's political drama 24/7, and people still eat it up.

The Democrats trotted out 2 grownups last election, and the Republicans ran out a bunch of their own, and they all got their asses handed to em (yes, Hillary won the popular vote, she still lost overall).  Running grownups doesn't mean anything...many Americans seemingly don't really care if someone's a grown-up.  So long as Trump continues to connect with a major subset of voters, and he's still doing so, it's not easy to topple him.

Unemployment numbers came out this morning.....down to 3.9%.  Trump controlled the jobs narrative all 2016 election season and ultimately it helped carry him to victory.  We can debate whether any Trump policies are actually helping anything here, and I think there's a legitimate concern that these tax cuts will have long-lasting negative effects, but it's not like the economy has tanked since he's taken office.  The Dow is up, unemployment is down.  That's the kind of thing the GOP is going to try to carry (if they're smart, at least) to victories this fall.

To your first point, even though the ratings for news is at an all time high, that doesn’t represent most of the public. Most of them still aren’t watching too much of it, and I think they get sick of hearing about it. 

But your second point about the economy is important. Richard Nixon was extremely unpopular during his first term, but he won his second term in a landslide, mostly due to a short lived economic upturn. So we’ll have to see how things look in 2020. 

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31 minutes ago, quickhands said:

Well they got clinton for lying under oath.   In case you forget he lost his law licence.  Generally, a big deal.    Banging a 20 something intern in the oval office.  Vs allegedly  banging a porn star in your hotel 12 years before being elected.

Can i get a top five of trumps so i rank them.

FYP

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the biggest problem for the Democrats is what are they for?  they have no platform...yes, they want to help immigrants and they don't like Trump but what are they for?  how are they going to help make peoples lives better besides being an alternative to the corrupted Republicans...

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22 minutes ago, Banger said:

the biggest problem for the Democrats is what are they for?  they have no platform...yes, they want to help immigrants and they don't like Trump but what are they for?  how are they going to help make peoples lives better besides being an alternative to the corrupted Republicans...

Sigh.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

I’m not 100% sure about your specific proposal, but of course the Democrats should keep talking health care. The Republicans’ schizophrenic position on this issue is completely untenable, and the polls show the public is firmly supportive of more Obamacare, not less. Democrats should be pounding this issue, and infrastructure, and the disastrous tax bill, if they do they’ll get their wave. 

One of the reasons Trump got elected is because Obama lied about his health care plan and many people got booted out of the insurance plan they liked into a more expensive inferior health care plan.  It would be a huge mistake for Democrats to run on health care.  It would also be a huge mistake to run on raising taxes, just like it is for Republicans to run on reducing entitlements.   People don't want stuff taken away from them.  

The more I think about it the only thing Democrats have is the anti-Trump message and that is why the media is going all hate fest on Trump ignoring the record low unemployment for women, Hispanics,  and blacks.  They can't run on the issues so attacking Trump is their best chance.

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34 minutes ago, Banger said:

the biggest problem for the Democrats is what are they for?  they have no platform...yes, they want to help immigrants and they don't like Trump but what are they for?  how are they going to help make peoples lives better besides being an alternative to the corrupted Republicans...

Exactly, they have nothing but to bash Trump, just like this board.

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2 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

Exactly, they have nothing but to bash Trump, just like this board.

the Trump bashing is completely justified...he's a crook, a horrible person, president, but that doesn't excuse the Dems for standing for something (besides immigration)...they need to have an economic policy that doesn't rely on handouts...they need to move to the middle.  The libs on the far left aren't going anywhere 

Edited by Banger

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23 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

One of the reasons Trump got elected is because Obama lied about his health care plan and many people got booted out of the insurance plan they liked into a more expensive inferior health care plan.  It would be a huge mistake for Democrats to run on health care.  It would also be a huge mistake to run on raising taxes, just like it is for Republicans to run on reducing entitlements.   People don't want stuff taken away from them.  

The more I think about it the only thing Democrats have is the anti-Trump message and that is why the media is going all hate fest on Trump ignoring the record low unemployment for women, Hispanics,  and blacks.  They can't run on the issues so attacking Trump is their best chance.

I am going to go out on a limb and say you haven't been out to see the current sentiment in this country around Obamacare?  Have you seen the approval numbers recently?

I think it was a crap approach, but there's no question a majority like the results.  They don't want it taken away from them and as it gets more and more expensive as this admin guts the funding mechanisms, there is plenty of room to run on actual health care and not simply expanding health insurance.

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5 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I am going to go out on a limb and say you haven't been out to see the current sentiment in this country around Obamacare?  Have you seen the approval numbers recently?
 

Are these the same polls that had Hillary beating Trump?

 

Edited by Don't Noonan

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1 minute ago, Don't Noonan said:

Are these the same polls that had Hillary beating Trump?

 

No...why do you ask?

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1 minute ago, The Commish said:

No...why do you ask?

Just busting your balls as that is your go to phrase.  In all seriousness I don't believe either party has a great solution for health care.

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1 minute ago, Don't Noonan said:

Just busting your balls as that is your go to phrase.  In all seriousness I don't believe either party has a great solution for health care.

When appropriate it makes sense.  :shrug: 

Here not so much....polling about politicians <> polling about policy popularity.

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17 minutes ago, the rover said:

The only question is how they are going to do it.  Cav may represent a good example of it.

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17 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Careful, to some this will sound hysterical.

well that's what happens when the sitting President steps down ... the VP becomes POTUS right ?

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17 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

:unsure:

Just because you personally really, really want Trump to have colluded with Russia doesn't mean it happend. Hth.

Edited by Weebs210
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