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timschochet

I worry too much. Update: Trump got thumped

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19 hours ago, Gopher State said:

Wow what happen to the blue wave that you were so confident about?

Hardly a blue wave but they get the House back, Senate stays red and the market doesn't tank as the pendulum swinging back is the norm. Sounds like this was probably the best outcome and better than the blue wave that had been talked about. If they won Senate as well we would be living through Russia 24/7 the next 2 years.  

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3 hours ago, GoBirds said:

Hardly a blue wave but they get the House back, Senate stays red and the market doesn't tank as the pendulum swinging back is the norm. Sounds like this was probably the best outcome and better than the blue wave that had been talked about. If they won Senate as well we would be living through Russia 24/7 the next 2 years.  

We still will

 

i heard Nadler say they are going to go after Kavanaugh too.  We can have weeks of testimony on the Devil’s Triangle...

ideally would I would like too see this as a chance to make some moves on prison reform, infrastructure and pot legalization, but I don’t think the Ds will do any of that...

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So 3 weeks after the election, it’s become very clear that what we have witnessed was a blue tsunami, and a near complete repudiation of Donald Trump. There’s no way around it, no redeeming results for Republicans outside of Florida, Georgia and Texas, and even in those states only in terms of state wide results, and even then by the narrowest of margins. When you lose house seats in Utah you’re in deep trouble. 

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On 11/27/2018 at 8:59 AM, timschochet said:

So 3 weeks after the election, it’s become very clear that what we have witnessed was a blue tsunami, and a near complete repudiation of Donald Trump. There’s no way around it, no redeeming results for Republicans outside of Florida, Georgia and Texas, and even in those states only in terms of state wide results, and even then by the narrowest of margins. When you lose house seats in Utah you’re in deep trouble. 

When it’s been crickets in here for 3 weeks and you have to post this it’s pretty obvious your blue wave was a blue ripple. It was funny though and I’m happy you are able to view it in a way that it makes you happy. Hope all is well Tim. 😁

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34 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

When it’s been crickets in here for 3 weeks and you have to post this it’s pretty obvious your blue wave was a blue ripple. It was funny though and I’m happy you are able to view it in a way that it makes you happy. Hope all is well Tim. 😁

:shrug:

40 seats flipped in the house.

8% national vote margin for the Dems

 

Its hard to look at that, and think its a positive story to sell for Trump.  Its certainly more than a ripple.

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39 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

When it’s been crickets in here for 3 weeks and you have to post this it’s pretty obvious your blue wave was a blue ripple. It was funny though and I’m happy you are able to view it in a way that it makes you happy. Hope all is well Tim. 😁

Pretty big ripple. Historic ripple. 

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11 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Pretty big ripple. Historic ripple. 

How about Senate? 

Edited by GoBirds

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45 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

:shrug:

40 seats flipped in the house.

8% national vote margin for the Dems

 

Its hard to look at that, and think its a positive story to sell for Trump.  Its certainly more than a ripple.

and the governorships that flipped.  Of course it was disappointing to the Dems that Florida and Georgia didn't flip but they've been red for decades (in terms of Governors).  Of course, if I know our guy I'll flip the script to the Senate which was never really in question to stay GOP controlled and universally acknowledged as an incredibly difficult map for the Dems.

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3 minutes ago, The Commish said:

and the governorships that flipped.  Of course it was disappointing to the Dems that Florida and Georgia didn't flip but they've been red for decades (in terms of Governors).  Of course, if I know our guy I'll flip the script to the Senate which was never really in question to stay GOP controlled and universally acknowledged as an incredibly difficult map for the Dems.

I bet Cory Gardner is worried in Colorado which went blue in every way possible. 

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1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

How about Senate? 

What about it? Not nearly the gain predicted a year ago. You won in a bunch of very red, strongly rural states. See how that helps you in the future. 

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19 minutes ago, timschochet said:

What about it? Not nearly the gain predicted a year ago. You won in a bunch of very red, strongly rural states. See how that helps you in the future. 

So a tsunami yet didn't take the Senate? The pendulum always swings back, taking one of 2 doesn't really seem like a surprise or even a wave which made the tsunami pretty funny that's all. 

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4 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

So a tsunami yet didn't take the Senate? The pendulum always swings back, taking one of 2 doesn't really seem like a surprise or even a wave which made the tsunami pretty funny that's all. 

You’re right, you guys just keep doing what you’re doing. 

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2 hours ago, Henry Ford said:

You’re right, you guys just keep doing what you’re doing. 

You know the thing is, I don’t want them to. 

If you’re a liberal, sure there’s going to be more wins in the future and I guess that’s good. But even better would be two competing political parties based on differing philosophies of government, like we’ve always had. If one of those parties has become the “rural white” party, and they identify themselves in terms of race and class rather than philosophy of government, it doesn’t bode well for our future. 

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3 hours ago, GoBirds said:

The pendulum always swings back. 

I want it to swing back. You’re not helping by supporting Donald Trump and his ideas. 

What happened to Republicans being for market based solutions? What happened to a belief in individual freedom? What happened to standing up for right and wrong in the world? Moral relativism used to be a progressive thing, now you own it. Where have you gone, Ronald Reagan? 

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38 minutes ago, timschochet said:

You know the thing is, I don’t want them to. 

If you’re a liberal, sure there’s going to be more wins in the future and I guess that’s good. But even better would be two competing political parties based on differing philosophies of government, like we’ve always had. If one of those parties has become the “rural white” party, and they identify themselves in terms of race and class rather than philosophy of government, it doesn’t bode well for our future. 

Given my post history, is there any part of you that believes I want them to keep doing what they’re doing?

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Haha, I love how it went from “we are taking the house and senate in a blue wave” to acting like this was a tsunami. Everyone will try to believe what fits the agenda as usual, carry on. Not much changes in here. 😂

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I wouldn't go so far as calling it a tsunami but it was a solid midterms for the Dems. I also don't know how much of it is a referendum on Trump as opposed to a result of the ineptitude of Republicans in Congress. Once again they had a chance at control and blew it, opting to not work with the other side as usual. Lets see if Trump and Pelosi can work together but I doubt it. It'll be another 2 years of nothing getting done and Trump will be out in 2020.

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Just now, jamny said:

I wouldn't go so far as calling it a tsunami but it was a solid midterms for the Dems. I also don't know how much of it is a referendum on Trump as opposed to a result of the ineptitude of Republicans in Congress. Once again they had a chance at control and blew it, opting to not work with the other side as usual. Lets see if Trump and Pelosi can work together but I doubt it. It'll be another 2 years of nothing getting done and Trump will be out in 2020.

What incentive do you see for the democrats to work with the republicans or indeed with Trump? Specifics, please

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32 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

Haha, I love how it went from “we are taking the house and senate in a blue wave” to acting like this was a tsunami. Everyone will try to believe what fits the agenda as usual, carry on. Not much changes in here. 😂

Absolutely.  Great election for Trump and his supporters.  Change nothing.   You guys got this!

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6 minutes ago, msommer said:

What incentive do you see for the democrats to work with the republicans or indeed with Trump? Specifics, please

To get things done and improve the country?

But from a political standpoint, none. They would be smart to continue allowing Trump to hang himself so they can beat him in 2020.

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1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

Haha, I love how it went from “we are taking the house and senate in a blue wave” to acting like this was a tsunami. Everyone will try to believe what fits the agenda as usual, carry on. Not much changes in here. 😂

"Hahaha, our crappy system lets us control the Senate with a minority of the nation's votes. Suck on it, libbies."

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20 minutes ago, jamny said:

To get things done and improve the country?

It’s a good point. I’m going to leave the wall out of this, if the Dems accede to that, sheesh, no. But getting past that, when does Congress get back to normal? Reconstituting the filibuster, blue slips, and general comity would be an important first step. When does this happen, who goes first? I’m sure the Dems won’t want to, they’ve been treated horribly as the minority and I’m sure the GOP would say 2006-2010 was no bed of roses either. - I think the Dems will restore some standards to the HIC and oversight committees. The bipartisanship on the Yemen war powers act was good to see. If there’s an incentive it’s to restore those institutional standards, but in general under Trump I have no idea how or when things can revert to ‘normal’. 

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If we had a resident FBG chiropractor/physical therapist type, he'd be making some serious bank in these political threads dealing with the aftermath of all this heavy lifting/shifting :lol: 

Edited by The Commish
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1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

Haha, I love how it went from “we are taking the house and senate in a blue wave” to acting like this was a tsunami. Everyone will try to believe what fits the agenda as usual, carry on. Not much changes in here. 

I don’t know how to explain this. Maybe in numbers. The record for a House total vote previously was the Republicans in 2010, with 45 million. The Dems just got 60 million. The Dems just broke their own record from Watergate - 1974 - for House turnover, with +40 seats. The GOP has 10 Senate races in Dem states won by Trump, they picked up 2. The GOP lost safe GOP seats in SC, Utah and Georgia. Statewide races in places like GA, TX & MS were relatively close. This is *not good for the GOP.

- I will say that the Dems need to realize that they are winning in often conservative to moderate areas, so I don’t think these are really ideological victories by and large. That can be hard to accept because it can mean some prized platform pieces are either not really attainable or if they are it will be risking the gains just made.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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50 minutes ago, msommer said:

What incentive do you see for the democrats to work with the republicans or indeed with Trump? Specifics, please

Specifically with regard to infrastructure: it would be good for the country. 

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

Specifically with regard to infrastructure: it would be good for the country. 

Problem: Trump doesn’t have an infrastructure plan. His administration is practically incapable of creating one. Seriously.

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Just now, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Problem: Trump doesn’t have an infrastructure plan. His administration is practically incapable of creating one. Seriously.

So Nancy can do it. Remember that TARP was Nancy’s plan; Bush just went along. 

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

So Nancy can do it. Remember that TARP was Nancy’s plan; Bush just went along. 

The administration does the spending though. We had a Treasury and other departments capable of implementing it. Not so here. Look at State, just as an example. I know not relevant here but that’s pretty exemplary of the other departments, they won’t and can’t plan for this stuff. 

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Gaining 40 seats in the House, winning 23 of 33 Senate races (Dems needed 27/33 to flip) and taking the popular vote by ~7% isn't a wave anymore?  OK.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz

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50 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Specifically with regard to infrastructure: it would be good for the country. 

See @jamny response above.

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10 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Gaining 40 seats in the House, winning 23 of 33 Senate races (Dems needed 27/33 to flip) and taking the popular vote by ~7% isn't a wave anymore?  OK.

That's old news. It's up to D +8.4%.

For the sake of comparison, the margin in the 2010 post-Obamacare midterms, the benchmark for "wave" midterms in most of our lifetimes, was R +6.8%. And that happened early in the economic recovery; this happened with the economy about as good as it's ever been or ever will be.

Also, some underreported good news from this election for all Americans: the turnout numbers were astronomical across the board.  Despite getting their rear ends handed to them, the GOP's raw total for House votes was actually higher than it was in 2010 or 2014.  At the moment the Dem raw vote total is only about a million short of what their House candidates got in 2016, which is just as surreal.  By comparison the Dem raw vote total is 2014 was about 25 million short of what they got in 2012. One silver lining of the Trump era is that everyone is paying more attention to politics and elections.

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1 minute ago, TobiasFunke said:

One silver lining of the Trump era is that everyone is paying more attention to politics and elections.

Absolutely true but I wouldn’t call it a silver lining. It just means, on both sides, more simplistic solutions to complicated problems. And populism. 

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5 hours ago, GoBirds said:

Haha, I love how it went from “we are taking the house and senate in a blue wave” to acting like this was a tsunami. Everyone will try to believe what fits the agenda as usual, carry on. Not much changes in here. 😂

Wave didn't have to hit the entire country.  It hit WI, PA and MI.  That's enough right there.  

 

ETA: I'm one who's actually enjoying the "head in the sand" mentality about the 2018 election coming from Trump supporters.  Will make it that much easier to use what was successful there in 2020. 

Edited by Thunderlips
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3 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

That's old news. It's up to D +8.4%.

For the sake of comparison, the margin in the 2010 post-Obamacare midterms, the benchmark for "wave" midterms in most of our lifetimes, was R +6.8%. And that happened early in the economic recovery; this happened with the economy about as good as it's ever been or ever will be.

Also, some underreported good news from this election for all Americans: the turnout numbers were astronomical across the board.  Despite getting their rear ends handed to them, the GOP's raw total for House votes was actually higher than it was in 2010 or 2014.  At the moment the Dem raw vote total is only about a million short of what their House candidates got in 2016, which is just as surreal.  By comparison the Dem raw vote total is 2014 was about 25 million short of what they got in 2012. One silver lining of the Trump era is that everyone is paying more attention to politics and elections.

The total vote spread turned out to be about nine million, too, or about three times what Hillary's was over Donald. But while I was happy to see the turnaround, especially in states like Wis-Mich-Pa, I'm a little worried that Dems are piling up ever bigger margins in states they already win handily (like Cal.), which is of very little help in '20 against the Don. They need to pound those popular votes in Florida and North Carolina and put that game away early.

That Atlantic article I linked to was mostly about how Repubbies aren't changing tactics at all as a result of the mid-terms. Instead, like some of our lesser posters in this forum, they're content to crow about how well they're gaming the current crappy system, winning majorities with minorities of votes and yet trying to govern as if they have a mandate.

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