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Top 24 Rookie 2018 (1 Viewer)

EBF

Footballguy
FIRST TIER

1. RB Saquon Barkley, Giants - Not much needs to be said about this one. Barkley would be a strong 1.01 rookie pick in almost any draft. Elite athletic traits combined with versatility and a competitive nature. Anything can happen with injuries and off-field stuff, but it's hard to envision him failing. A slam dunk 1.01 pick and instantly an elite dynasty asset. There's even an argument for taking him with the 1st pick in a dynasty startup draft.

SECOND TIER

2. RB Derrius Guice, Redskins - The fact that he slipped in the draft a bit is a red flag because it suggests teams had some concerns about him, but the late 2nd is still high for a RB and he's an instant upgrade over everything Washington has at RB. He should be a day one starter and he's capable of a big rookie impact ala Eddie Lacy and Kareem Hunt. From a talent standpoint, I like him more than Penny, Michel, Jones, and Freeman. Much like Leonard Fournette before him, he's a no-nonsense banger with a rare combination of power and straight-line explosiveness. His footwork and cuts are merely adequate, but when you add up everything else, he's still a plus talent. The aforementioned Lacy (pre-decline) and Hunt are in the same general ballpark. I'm expecting an instant splash as long as he stays motivated and out of trouble. There seems to be a latent layer of character risk based on how many teams ducked him in the draft.

3. RB Nick Chubb, Browns - He doesn't seem quite as special as he was pre-injury, but the stats suggest his explosiveness has returned to normal pre-injury levels (after a big drop in 2016, his long run % bounced back in 2017 to his freshman-sophomore levels). He's a bit untested as a pass catcher, but he's a good pure rushing talent who combines size, power, speed, and underrated cutting ability. Former NFL stalwart Willis McGahee is a pretty good comparison for a variety of reasons. Both are bigger backs with above average speed and footwork who lost some ability to a devastating injury, but still have starter tools. There's some situational uncertainty in Cleveland due to the presence of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson, so don't be surprised if Chubb falls behind other rookie RBs for the next year or two. Long-term, I think he's the second best RB talent in this draft if he can avoid the injury bug.

4. WR DJ Moore, Panthers - While I don't know if he's ever going to be a dominant #1 WR in the NFL, Moore seems like a high floor prospect who also possesses a pretty good ceiling. He's an athletic dynamo with a freaky combination of weight, speed, and explosiveness. He was a productive college player and a lot of his workout metrics translate to the field. He can win downfield, is strong at the catch point, and is dangerous after the catch. Although very athletic, he's a little bit tight as a route runner, but it's not a huge concern. If we're looking for a comparison, I think he's like a plus version of Pierre Garcon, with superior athletic tools and football skills packed into a similar body type. I can see his career going the way of Donte Stallworth where he's a solid complementary piece without ever really being "the man" for a passing game, but there's a high floor and ceiling. I'd feel good taking him anywhere in the mid-late first in a PPR rookie draft.

5. RB Ronald Jones, Buccaneers - I was initially pretty down on this pick, but the more I watch him, the more optimistic I become. Jones often draws Jamaal Charles comparisons due to his thin frame and vertical explosiveness. While Jones has good speed, I think Charles in his prime was a step faster. Still, Jones has above average speed. I wouldn't describe him as an exceptionally shifty back who strings together a lot of moves, but he can make sharp initial cuts and is an efficient runner. His overall game, physique, talent level, and draft position are somewhat reminiscent of Dalvin Cook from the 2017 class. Both are undersized backs who lack leg drive to push the pile in the NFL, but have smooth north-south running skills with above average play speed. In terms of style and outlook, Jones will probably fall somewhere on the lower end of the scale from Tevin Coleman -- Melvin Gordon -- Jamaal Charles. I think there's some bust risk with him, but I like him more than Michel/Penny/Freeman and he could start as a rookie, so the potential for instant boom is there. Not a can't-miss guy, but a pretty good gamble.

THIRD TIER

6. RB Rashaad Penny, Seahawks - I like the draft slot, the immediate opportunity, the NCAA production, and the size-speed combo. Penny has no shortage of positives and is yet another high-profile rookie RB from this list who could start on day one. Still, he doesn't really jump off the screen in the way that I'd expect a first round RB to do. When I watch him run, I see solid, not special. His long speed is good for his size, but his game seems to lack a bit of suddeness and he's not an overly elusive back. Although they have a different body type and play style, the situation, talent level, versatility, and draft slot remind me of former Colts RB Joseph Addai. Addai wasn't really a special back in the NFL, but he was okay at everything and that was enough to make him a productive FF starter for a few years. I wouldn't expect greatness from Penny, but he should be a decent plug-and-play option right away and his sheer speed will likely lead to some big plays.

7. RB Sony Michel, Patriots - I like Michel as a player, but I'm not sure what makes him a first round back. His combination of size and speed is pretty ordinary for the NFL level. While he has some explosiveness and mobility, he's not really a shifty back who's going to consistently win with moves and quickness like LeSean McCoy. His speed is good, but not elite. I don't think he's a carbon copy of Shane Vereen, but there are similarities between him and the former Pats 2nd round pick who never quite lived up to the best case scenario. Both are versatile backs who lack ideal size and elite athletic traits. Michel is not a bad player. I think he's going to do some good things in the NFL and he has value by virtue of the situation/opportunity, but on talent alone I would've pegged him as a 2nd-3rd round NFL draft pick, so I have trouble getting too excited even with this intriguing landing spot. He can be instantly useful in PPR and deeper leagues, but personally I'll be surprised if he's ever a standout RB1 in FF. He's better than Donald Brown or Felix Jones, but he's similar in the sense of being a 1st round RB with 'tweener size/speed.

8. WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos - This is a pretty dire looking WR crop in my estimation. I'm sure there will be some success stories, but the pickings seem pretty slim. Sutton is one of the few guys I'd really contemplate using a top 15 rookie pick on. He was a productive college player who has exceptional height, length, and downfield/jump ball potential. There's a pretty good ceiling here and if this pick hits, you could have a top 15 FF WR whose style falls somewhere in between Mike Evans and Marques Colston. Like those two, Sutton is a taller and longer WR with decent bulk who wins with range and passable mobility. Sutton isn't going to be a route dynamo in the NFL and getting consistent separation will probably be his biggest challenge. His quickness and overall movement are just average. He's not stiff, but he's not an elite athlete for his height either. Overall, I like, but don't love his game. He's not a can't-miss guy, but there's enough here to justify a late 1st.

9. RB Royce Freeman, Broncos - Freeman has seemingly been around forever and even though he was always a productive player at Oregon, I never really bought in 100%. He has an ideal frame and possesses decent east-west quickness for a bigger back. He can catch the ball and he's an experienced player who can play on all three downs. I know this is becoming a theme with this rookie class, but he can step in right away and probably produce decent numbers as a rookie. Long-term, is he going to last as a starter in the NFL? Is he going to be more than a JAG? His vertical explosiveness is merely average and there's not a lot of "wow" factor to anything he does. As I've commented before, he doesn't run with the reckless abandon of Barkley or Guice and doesn't look like a guy who relishes contact despite having the frame to run with authority. Given where he went in the NFL draft and where he's likely to fall in rookie drafts, I really can't knock the value. He's capable of yielding multiple 1,000 yard rushing seasons. However, I think he's merely a "pretty good" talent and I don't really see him elevating his circumstances.

10. WR Michael Gallup, Cowboys - A bit of a size/speed tweener. He doesn't have great size or speed and is a scrappy possession WR. He will have to fight and claw for every yard because he's not going to run by NFL defenders. Still, he's a reasonably big target with good possession skills and decent overall mobility. You could point towards Hakeem Nicks and Keenan Allen for comparables, though Allen is more athletic and Nicks in his prime was a better version of Gallup. Gallup isn't an elite prospect, but he has the potential to develop into one of the top 2-3 receivers from this class and is possibly the best WR on the Cowboys, which could give him instant value. Not an elite prospect or a sure thing, but he has the potential to be the Michael Thomas/JuJu Smith-Schuster of this draft as a day two pick who outproduces the first round guys.

11. WR Christian Kirk, Cardinals - Short, but solidly built with above average straight line speed. He was a jack-of-all-trades playmaker at Texas A&M, consistently finding a way to make an impact. While he has a reputation as a good athlete, he's more straight-line fast than quick, lacking great route suddenness and open field agility. He's not Randall Cobb or Percy Harvin in space. He's gritty and competitive, and you feel like he'll find a way to stick in the league and contribute. However, he's a somewhat flawed athlete who doesn't look like a great candidate to ever be a team's WR1. To me, he's a high-ish floor, moderate ceiling depth guy in FF who can maybe give you some solid WR2-WR3 seasons if he works out.

12. WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons - He's a snappy route runner with good explosiveness and WR skills. Even in the NFL, his vertical speed will challenge people and create RAC opportunities. However, Ridley lacks any semblance of size or strength and doesn't seem like the type to become a high-volume WR1. He's not going to be a great possession or jump ball WR. If you really want to stretch for an optimistic comparison, you could point towards TY Hilton as a success story from this ilk, but ultimately I think there's a big chance that Ridley becomes a mere complementary piece who never gets enough work to be a reliable FF option. As I've said before, he's closer to Harry Douglas than Julio Jones. Even though he isn't viewed as an elite FF prospect, I'm likely to avoid him at his ADP.

FOURTH TIER

13. TE Hayden Hurst, Ravens - I'm a little surprised by the lack of hype for Hurst in rookie drafts, as he consistently falls below where I think he should be taken. I guess it's the perfect storm of him being an overaged late riser whose opportunity was complicated by the subsequent drafting of Mark Andrews at the same position. For whatever reason, he's often taken a full round below Gesicki and even Goedert even though he was the higher pick and is (IMO) the better prospect. Some of the players in the draft are hard to peg, but I see Hurst as a pretty straightforward projection. While he lacks the dominant TD potential of a Gronk or Graham, he's an exceptional athlete for his size who can terrorize linebackers and safeties over the middle. He has excellent play strength and quickness. Good route runner and dangerous after the catch. Although Gesicki is a better athlete on paper, Hurst is vastly superior in his movement and athleticism on the football field. Look for him to become a solid mid-level TE1 in the mold of Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels. The fact that he's 24 years old is negative because he's a finished product physically and his remaining shelf life is relatively short compared with a typical rookie. I like him more as a prospect than people like Ridley/Freeman/Kirk and I'd take him above them in TE-premium, but you have to account for the fact that TE is a devalued position in most FF leagues.

14. QB Baker Mayfield, Browns - I've invested minimal amounts of time and energy evaluating this QB class, so I'm not going to try to act like the world's foremost expert on this group. Still, from what I've seen, I agree with the Browns in liking Mayfield the most. I like quarterbacks who are fearless and assertive, and those qualities definitely apply to Mayfield. He plays with great confidence and will not be awed by he big moment. He's an accurate passer. He was immensely productive in college, seems to have plenty of arm strength, and adequate instincts/field vision. While not very tall, he has a compact and sturdy frame reminiscent of Russell Wilson, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Matt Stafford. I don't see durability being an issue. With him being a shotgun and spread guy, there will be questions about his ability to translate some of that into the NFL. Also, while he's not a bad athlete, he doesn't have elite ability to escape the rush and will probably take some sacks in the NFL. Still, I like the character and the throwing ability. I haven't seen enough to say he's definitely going to be special, but I think there's a Cutler/Stafford/Favre feel here, and while we can't assume a HoF career, he might actually be better at taking care of the ball than that group.

15. QB Josh Rosen, Cardinals - Rosen was productive at UCLA despite not always having a lot of help and I think he has a lot of the traits needed to be solid in the NFL. He might have the highest floor of any QB in this draft. His accuracy and poise are good. He processes the field quickly and should be strong at the mental aspects of playing QB in the NFL. He is good against the rush and does not wilt in pressure situations. He's a marginal athlete though. Arm strength is not elite. Thin frame with minimal mobility. Durability may be an issue, as he's not built to take a lot of sacks. His personality may rub some people the wrong way. Style-wise, he's in the same ballpark as people like Chad Pennington, Jared Goff, and Tom Brady. Lean and marginal athlete who relies on superior mental game. There's a Pro Bowl ceiling if everything clicks just right, but he's more likely to be a fringe QB1 in FF. However, if you need a solid starter in deeper leagues or 2QB formats, I think he's a pretty good gamble.

16. RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions - It seems like a lazy comparison given his draft spot and team, but he really does remind me of former Lions bust Kevin Smith. Both have solid height-weight on paper, but are leaner backs with a high center of gravity and weak base. Johnson's straight-line explosiveness is fine, but it's not special. He doesn't have great cutting ability or power. With his leaner build and lack of elite avoidance skills, I see him taking a beating in the NFL. I think we're looking at a James Starks type of player. He'll have games where he's startable in FF, but he's not a special back and I don't think he's the long-term answer for the Lions. If I took him in my rookie draft, I'd probably be looking to sell on hype if he manages to make some noise as a rookie.

17. QB Sam Darnold, Jets - Darnold was the second pick in the draft and a lot of the scouting reports I've read were very positive, but I'm not entirely sold on him. He's a tough QB with good production, but I think his accuracy and poise under pressure are not as good as advertised. He is more rattled by pressure than Rosen or Mayfield and will float passes into dangerous territory. He was a turnover machine in 2017, throwing too many interceptions and fumbling too much. His mechanics are bad, with a long wind-up. Overall, I think he looks like more of a bust risk than Mayfield and Rosen, but I still respect the high draft slot and that's why he's not lower on this list.

FIFTH TIER

18. QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens - Elite athlete for a QB, with size, speed, and elusiveness. He has elite rushing ability and is mobile in the pocket. Arm strength looks pretty good, but his accuracy can be inconsistent and he's prone to floating intermediate passes. Awareness of the pass rush and poise under pressure are two areas of varying concern, as he sometimes locks onto his main read. While the rushing tools are nice, QBs in the NFL ultimately live and die based mostly on their throwing ability. Jackson isn't a terrible passer, but he's not great either. The overall package is highly reminiscent of Colin Kaepernick. Both have standout physical traits combined with solid arm strength, but just okay passing instincts and accuracy. It's pretty common for run-heavy QBs to flash early before falling off once teams learn how to play them (Vick, Young, and Kaepernick all followed this pattern). I would expect a similar trajectory for Jackson, meaning an early splash within the first year or two followed by regression to mediocrity. At that point whether or not he sticks as a starter will depend on his ability to improve. There's a pretty good ceiling here for FF leagues, but he's not that likely to hit it.

19. RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals - Every year there are one or two day three prospects who become personal favorites. Edmonds is one of those guys for me this year. At 5'9" 205 with 4.55 speed in the 40, he's a little bit borderline from a height/weight/speed standpoint, lacking either the 220+ pound frame or the elite straight-line explosiveness to project as an obvious starter. There's a pretty big risk that he'll top out as a backup in the NFL and will never get a large enough role to be FF relevant. With all that said, I really like his game. Although not a huge back, his distribution of weight is ideal, with a strong trunk and running base. He's not a thumper like Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew, but he can play a little bit stronger than his measurables alone would indicate. His best quality is probably his elite cutting ability and lateral movement. Edmonds is one of the more elusive backs in this draft, having exceptional balance and hips to string together multiple moves. He is a perfectly clean and efficient runner. There's a sneaky Brian Westbrook/Ray Rice type of potential here. If he were a little more juiced from a size and/or speed standpoint then I'd say he's an elite prospect, but as I said there's a chance he's just not either big or fast enough to really thrive in the NFL. Still, I like him enough to take a chance on him in the third round of a rookie draft. A worthy stash at his currently low ADP.

20. RB Kalen Ballage, Dolphins - I like him more than most of the day three backs. He has some size, versatility, and straight-line speed. He should stick on a roster and can contribute in spurts. Kind of a poor man's Alvin Kamara. Don't expect the world, but if Drake falters, Ballage could be playable as a rookie. Low YPC in college is a bit of a concern, but may be partially down to usage/system. Ultimately, not a can't-miss talent, but any RB with three down potential is worth a lottery ticket at a certain point.

21. TE Mark Andrews, Ravens - Andrews caught my eye in his RS freshman season at Oklahoma with a number of splash plays. He continued to build on that over the course of his college career and set new statistical highs across the board last season as a junior. He's a quality pass-catching talent, but not an elite prospect. While Andrews possesses sneaky athleticism and an ideal frame, the added bulk seems to have cost him some of the explosiveness and mobility that he had earlier in his college career. He has good straight line speed for such a big target, but rounds off his routes and may struggle to separate against some NFL defenders. He's big with soft hands and good red zone potential. The way I see it, Hayden Hurst will be a better TE between the 20s, but Andrews may be the better red zone TE. Hurst is the better pure athlete, but both have the potential to be useful FF TEs. Andrews does remind me a little bit of Gronk with his size and lumbering mobility.

22. RB Mark Walton, Bengals - Borderline workout numbers. He plays with more strength and speed than his workout numbers would indicate though. He's a one-cut-and-go north-south runner who has the talent to thrive in spot duty. Is he really a long-term starter in the NFL though? Probably not, and with him stuck behind Mixon, you may be waiting a while for payoff that's not guaranteed.

23. TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles - Average is the word that comes to mind when I think of Goedert. It's impressive that a small school guy was able to get picked so high, but I don't see special traits. His mobility and route running will not be elite at the NFL level. In a best case scenario, I can see him becoming a steady, yet unspectacular option like Heath Miller. I'm likely to avoid him at his rookie ADP though, as I think there are better options.

24. QB Josh Allen, Bills - Ideal frame. Elite arm strength. Can zing the ball all over the field. Accuracy and touch are all over the place. Wasn't a very productive college player despite playing in a small conference. Not a statue, but not very mobile either. He's more of a "tools" guy than a finished product, and I'm always leery of that when it comes to QBs. If you didn't dominate in college, it's not going to get any easier in the NFL. More likely than not to be a bust, due to his suspect accuracy and instincts. If he polishes the edges, the pure throwing ability can be elite, but I don't think that's going to happen.

OTHERS:

RB Boston Scott, Saints - Straight-line banger packed into a short frame. Explosive. People will compare him to Sproles because of the height and team, but he's not elusive. He's a power runner trapped in a short body. Interesting roster stash, but he's probably just a bit player in the NFL.

RB Nyheim Hines, Colts - Probably JAG in the NFL. Good athlete. No play strength. He's a committee back and not a special one.

WR Keke Coutee, Texans - Good athlete, but little. Explosive deep speed. Poor man's TY Hilton.

WR James Washington, Steelers - One trick pony deep threat. I don't think he'll do enough besides that to have consistent value.

WR Anthony Miller, Bears - Explosive complementary guy. I don't see any real potential for volume or useful FF stats.

WR TreQuan Smith, Saints - Tall and lean with good measurable athleticism, but average football athleticism. An Aaron Dobson type. Overdrafted by a couple rounds IMO.

WR DJ Chark, Jaguars - Little and fast. I don't think he's more than a situational deep threat in the NFL.

WR Dante Pettis, 49ers - Overdrafted because of his return skills. A modest talent at WR. Absolute ceiling would be a #2 for his team, but even that seems unlikely.

WR J'Mon Moore, Packers - A tall and smooth athlete. Nice vertical ability. He's a one speed player though and could struggle to consistently separate. Worth a roster spot.

WR Jaleel Scott, Ravens - Tall and deceptively athletic. Good jump ball potential. Slow off the line. Builds speed. Worth a waiver claim, but don't go crazy.

TE Ian Thomas, Panthers - Modest foot quickness and route running ability, but he's a good straight line speed/size combination. It's going to take a couple years, but he has the upside to develop into a low end FF TE1. Not too exciting if you aren't involved in TE premium leagues, but he's a good value selection at his ADP.

TE Mike Gesicki, Dolphins - Seam threat and red zone target. Good straight-line explosiveness, but lacks base strength and is a limited route runner. Overrated.

 
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Along with my rankings, I also try to include a list of who I end up with in my leagues, as I think that's also a good indicator of who you really believe in.

That's going to be a little less informative this year because I trimmed my # of leagues from 7 to 5. I also happened to be a bit light on picks this year, as I traded out of the 1st in one league and had no 2nd-3rd in other leagues. Lastly, I still have one league that's yet to draft. With all of that said, here's who I own after 4 drafts:

2018

HAYDEN HURST - 3
CHASE EDMONDS - 3

----------------------------

NICK CHUBB - 1
DJ MOORE - 1
SAQUON BARKLEY - 1
MARK ANDREWS - 1

And here are the previous years:

2017

DEVANTE MAYS - 7

---------------------------

JUJU SMITH - 6

---------------------------------

PATRICK MAHOMES - 5

--------------------------------

AMARA DARBOH - 4

-----------------------------

JOE MIXON - 3
CHAD WILLIAMS - 3

-----------------------------

GERALD EVERETT - 2
JOHN ROSS - 2
JONNU SMITH - 2

--------------------------

DALVIN COOK - 1
BUCKY HODGES - 1
KAREEM HUNT - 1
SAMAJE PERINE - 1
JAMAAL WILLIAMS - 1

2016

MORITZ BOEHRINGER - 5

----------------------------------
HUNTER HENRY - 4

-------------------------------------
CARSON WENTZ - 3
KOLBY LISTENBEE - 3

--------------------------------
KENYAN DRAKE - 2
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT - 2
JARED GOFF - 2

------------------------------
PAXTON LYNCH - 1
LAQUON TREADWELL - 1
JONATHAN WILLIAMS - 1

2015

TY MONTGOMERY - 7

---------------------------------
PHILLIP DORSETT - 6
DEANDRE SMELTER - 6

------------------------------------
GARRETT GRAYSON - 4

--------------------------------
KEVIN WHITE - 3

-------------------------------
AMEER ABDULLAH - 1
AMARI COOPER - 1
STEFON DIGGS - 1
MICHAEL DYER - 1
DEVIN FUNCHESS - 1
MELVIN GORDON - 1

2014

ERIC EBRON - 5

-------------------
TRE MASON - 4
ALLEN ROBINSON - 4

-------------------------------
BLAKE BORTLES - 1
MIKE EVANS - 1
JIMMY GAROPPOLO - 1
JEREMY HILL - 1
JERICK MCKINNON - 1
DONTE MONCRIEF - 1
PAUL RICHARDSON - 1
LACHE SEASTRUNK - 1
TERRANCE WEST - 1
ANDRE WILLIAMS - 1

 
You're right in that Chubb is the 2nd best back of this class. Honestly, if not for that injury, my boy might've been the #1.

You'd be crazy not to bet the farm on a kid who will have NFL/top tier supports in place to get him faster and even healthier. Stronger, is likely not possible, this guy could pull a train. 

eta: IN dynasty, the game is long term. Year 1 there may be a bump or two (tho he'll outplay everyone, imo)... but after yr1, he owns the role.

 
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Great write up! Thanks!

This is slightly off topic but I can’t resist after seeing all those TMont shares. Where are you at with him and the GB backfield? 

 
Great write up! Thanks!

This is slightly off topic but I can’t resist after seeing all those TMont shares. Where are you at with him and the GB backfield? 
I sold high in one league last year, but kept everywhere else because I needed the points and was hoping he could scrape together a useful season.

He's miscast as a RB though. Not cut out to play there full time. His highest potential is as a high usage slot WR.

I think Williams is the back to own in GB. I still like Mays as a dart throw. He made the roster, but never got a real opportunity last year.

 
Normally through the years I track my favorites of the year, and I can honestly say there are only 3 this year.  As opposed to years past I've usually had 6+.  Other the ones you have owned in your leagues, who do you view as a favorite EBF that was maybe unobtainable through your drafts?  Sometimes it just isn't possible to take a guy who is a favorite.  

ETA:  Great top24 and much appreciated on the write up

 
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Normally through the years I track my favorites of the year, and I can honestly say there are only 3 this year.  As opposed to years past I've usually had 6+.  Other the ones you have owned in your leagues, who do you view as a favorite EBF that was maybe unobtainable through your drafts?  Sometimes it just isn't possible to take a guy who is a favorite.  

ETA:  Great top24 and much appreciated on the write up
Well, I was able to get everyone I really liked at least once. I stunk badly enough in one of my dev leagues to get the 1.01 in 2017, which is how I got Barkley. I'm glad I have him on at least one team. 

I'm getting Hurst everywhere and Edmonds is a personal favorite. Hadn't heard of him before the NFL draft, but when I went to review the picks, he's one that stood out right away.

I guess I'd like to have Gallup, Sutton, and Guice somewhere. Could still happen.

 
I like how you take ownership of your past calls by posting your picks over the years.
It's harder to learn and improve if you don't examine your own results and process.

There are lots of things that make me cringe in hindsight, like having Kevin White ranked as the top player in 2015.

If I've done one thing well over the years, it's probably finding decent players late in the draft. I was an early adopter of Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill, Dion Lewis, and a few other guys who exceeded expectations out of the late rounds.

 
There are lots of things that make me cringe in hindsight, like having Kevin White ranked as the top player in 2015.
Hard to look back and question things on Kevin White when he was completely derailed by injuries.  That's something nobody can predict.

There is more to learn on guys you liked who just ended up sucking because they suck.  White just came out of the gate a wreck injury wise.

 
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Well done, I enjoyed your work,

only one player I completely disagree, TE Gesicki Miami, you even put I.Thomas TE Carolina next to him, 

you like TE Hurst Baltimore  so much but ignoring real potential in Gesicki IMO

 
Hard to look back and question things on Kevin White when he was completely derailed by injuries.  That's something nobody can predict.

There is more to learn on guys you liked who just ended up sucking because they suck.  White just came out of the gate a wreck injury wise.
Yea, it's hard to say where he'd be if healthy, but he hasn't looked great when he's played.

 
Well done, I enjoyed your work,

only one player I completely disagree, TE Gesicki Miami, you even put I.Thomas TE Carolina next to him, 

you like TE Hurst Baltimore  so much but ignoring real potential in Gesicki IMO
Not a Gesicki fan. I've never seen a TE like him who has succeeded. He can't block a lick, he's limited in space, and he's a bad route runner. Too many warts. He's the Justin Hunter of TEs. Elite length and straight-line athleticism, but it doesn't translate to greatness in football. He can run up the seam and he'll be a threat on jump balls, but that's it. I don't see him becoming a complete pro TE who provides consistent FF production.

Hurst was picked higher in the draft. I shouldn't have to explain why I rank him higher. It should be the other way around. The ADP disparity is puzzling to me. Hurst is underrated by the community and Gesicki is the opposite.

 
Nothing on Daesean Hamilton or Jordan Wilkins? Any IDP rookie advice? Thanks
Hamilton looks pretty average to me. There are so many guys of that ability level coming into the NFL each year that it's hard to stand out.

Wilkins is more athletic than his combine numbers suggest. I think he's a better redraft pick than Hines if you're looking to catch lightning in a bottle with the Colts. Good agility and footwork. Minimal play strength and straight-line explosiveness. He's kind of a discount Matt Forte, but long-term I doubt he's more than a stopgap there.

 
Another one to watch: Pittsburgh RB/FB/TE/WR Jaylen Samuels

I have no idea where this guy is going to play. I've heard FB. In terms of his height/weight, he's a RB. In terms of his play style, he's a Hernandez-like TE.

I don't know what they're going to do with him, but he's a good athlete and his versatility could make him useful in FF. He's not a good enough RB to play there full-time, but if he gets heavy snaps as a H-Back/TE then he could have some value in PPR leagues as either a depth RB or a TE.

 
If I've done one thing well over the years, it's probably finding decent players late in the draft. I was an early adopter of Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill, Dion Lewis, and a few other guys who exceeded expectations out of the late rounds.
Maybe that's systemic? It seems like you over value bmi and metrics, and when you have missed on some very good players in the early rounds that you weren't as high on, that's been part of it.  But I also agree that you're successful in the later rounds using the same strategy, and you've had some excellent calls. Maybe metrics are more predictive with late round talent because you need a minimum amount of athleticism to play well in the NFL, but they're less predictive in the early rounds because the elite players are sometimes more skilled than just physically talented?  I know a lot of scouts say that the combine is only valuable for confirming what you see on tape, which is why the nfl doesn't shy away from the Calvin Ridley or dalvin cook types the way dynasty players do. Maybe the reason draft status is more predictive of fantasy success than most other formulas is because the nfl is better at evaluating skill than we are, but metrics are more useful for predicting fantasy breakouts because "you can't teach speed".   

 
I don't really use metrics that much at this point and Lewis/Ware weren't really workout freaks.

I think it's easier to spot the difference between a training camp casualty and a player who might actually be viable than it is to split hairs between people who are considered similar prospects, which is why I think why I've had a little bit of luck with some of the late round guys. Sometimes a quality talent just slips through the cracks because of team needs, college usage, character, or perceived deficiencies that are exaggerated. Ware was really good as a freshman, but split carries in subsequent seasons when other talented backs came to LSU (Jeremy Hill was the big one IIRC). That hurt his opportunity. Tyreek Hill was a big character red flag guy or else he would've been a high pick. People like Dion Lewis and Branden Oliver were dinged because of height. The NFL underrates backs on the extreme low end of the height scale. Even MJD and Sproles went much later than they should have in hindsight.

 
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Not a Gesicki fan. I've never seen a TE like him who has succeeded. He can't block a lick, he's limited in space, and he's a bad route runner. Too many warts. He's the Justin Hunter of TEs. Elite length and straight-line athleticism, but it doesn't translate to greatness in football. He can run up the seam and he'll be a threat on jump balls, but that's it. I don't see him becoming a complete pro TE who provides consistent FF production.

Hurst was picked higher in the draft. I shouldn't have to explain why I rank him higher. It should be the other way around. The ADP disparity is puzzling to me. Hurst is underrated by the community and Gesicki is the opposite.
It might be overstated but many of us devalue 25 year old rookies.

 
Nothing on Daesean Hamilton or Jordan Wilkins? Any IDP rookie advice? Thanks
Get either Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edmonds at the end of round 1. Then get Rashaan Evans about a round later. 

The other Edmonds and Kiser are interesting late, but this class lacks depth. There's a pile of receivers to bridge that gap. Ignore them up until that point. 

This class is about rb, qb, and lb.

 
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Random thoughts on your posts:

  • Only negative to me on Guice is I dislike the team he went to.  He's still #2 easy.  
  • I don't like Jones size, for his running style.  Charles' running style resulted in less hits. Jones is a fighter, plays bigger than he is.  I also think he's more than a step slower than Charles. 
  • I think Michel's floor is about RB15 this year, and once Brady is gone, he could become a workhorse. Underrated situation.  
  • I love everything about DJ Moore.
  • Sutton is considered, raw, but I have read a ton about him being a hard worker, and humble kid.  Looks like he is behind the vets for a year, pushing him down boards. Steal.  
  • Guys like Gallup and Kirk I think get pushed up because of situation, but it's easy to see those teams spending big capital there next year.  Kirk in particular.  
  • If all the young QBs work out, Mayfield has a pretty sick surrounding cast.  His situation is surprisingly promising.
  • Jackson's ceiling alone pushes him up my boards.  
  • Same with Gesicki
  • If Coutee can work out, you have Watson's slot guy for next few years.  Like him at his ADP.  
  • Same with Jordan Akins, actually.  love to get Watson's TE cheap.  He's 26 already, that's a major problem.
  • Love the idea of Jordan Samuels, but these guys without a position, not much history to suggest taking them.  
Great write up!   :thumbup:

 
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How about Ito Smith? Possible Coleman replacement next year?
Not impressed with Smith. I don't think he's going to do much in the league. I'd rather have Edmonds, Walton, Ballage, or Wilkins when it comes to the day three RBs.

 
Random thoughts on your posts:

  • Love the idea of Jordan Samuels, but these guys without a position, not much history to suggest taking them.  
Great write up!   :thumbup:
His ADP is really low. I just got him with the 4.08 pick in a 12 team league yesterday. At that stage you're just grateful to get somebody with a pulse.

To your point, I'd say Ty Montgomery and Jordan Reed have done pretty well in the NFL despite having a lot of tweener traits. Tyreek Hill is another example. At Oklahoma State/West Alabama, he was kind of a curiosity. Not really a RB. Not really a WR. He obviously had athleticism and return talent, but it was unclear where he'd play on Sundays.

With a guy like Samuels, it will depend on how they decide to use him and what his positional eligibility will be. If he gets like 3-4 carries and a few catches a game, he could either be a depth RB in PPR or perhaps a startable TE if he has eligibility there.

 
Not a Gesicki fan. I've never seen a TE like him who has succeeded. He can't block a lick, he's limited in space, and he's a bad route runner. Too many warts. He's the Justin Hunter of TEs. Elite length and straight-line athleticism, but it doesn't translate to greatness in football. He can run up the seam and he'll be a threat on jump balls, but that's it. I don't see him becoming a complete pro TE who provides consistent FF production.

Hurst was picked higher in the draft. I shouldn't have to explain why I rank him higher. It should be the other way around. The ADP disparity is puzzling to me. Hurst is underrated by the community and Gesicki is the opposite.
I can see preferring Hurst based on draft position, but I can't see dropping Gesicki as far as you did given that he had good college production AND stellar athletic metrics plus is going to a team where he will get a chance to start out of the gate.

My problem with Hurst is that watching him he just does not look like a dynamic receiver.  He will be an NFL starter most likely but I don't see the kind of physical talent to be a top 10 fantasy TE.  And BA drafted another guy in Mark Andrews who actually DOES look like he has the potential to be a special receiver. I would have taken Andrews before Gesicki IF BA hadn't also drafted Hurst.  I think they will hold each back for the short term and in the long term Andrews will be the better fantasy player.

 
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Get either Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edmonds at the end of round 1. Then get Rashaan Evans about a round later. 

The other Edmonds and Kiser are interesting late, but this class lacks depth. There's a pile of receivers to bridge that gap. Ignore them up until that point. 

This class is about rb, qb, and lb.
You don’t take defensive players in round 1 unless you want your dynasty experience to be a short one.  Unless you have unusual high scoring for IDP.

 
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You don’t take either of those two players until late rd 3 or 4.  End of rd 1 only if you want your dynasty experience to be a short one.
Depends on format. If idp are plentiful on waivers then of course you don't pick them early. I don't think that's how most idp leagues are setup though. Mine sure aren't. I think both (top 10 lb) are more valuable than all of the receivers (no top 15 wr). 

 
Undrafted, but Josh adams deserves a place among the "others" imo. I'd have Jordan lasley too.

 
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Great write-up.  If you’ve read PFF grades, thoughts on their elusiveness rating system?  Penny rated #2 of all prospects on their elusiveness grade, and my untrained eye was pretty impressed watching him as well.   Just curious how you might reconcile that.

 
Another one to watch: Pittsburgh RB/FB/TE/WR Jaylen Samuels

I have no idea where this guy is going to play. I've heard FB. In terms of his height/weight, he's a RB. In terms of his play style, he's a Hernandez-like TE.

I don't know what they're going to do with him, but he's a good athlete and his versatility could make him useful in FF. He's not a good enough RB to play there full-time, but if he gets heavy snaps as a H-Back/TE then he could have some value in PPR leagues as either a depth RB or a TE.
I am a NC State alum and fan and watched 90%+ of Samuels' career games. He was a playmaker in college - 45 TDs in 39 games in his last 3 seasons, career 6.1 ypc and 9.2 ypr, and set the all-time NC State record for career receptions (previously held by Jerricho Cotchery, who himself surpassed Torry Holt).

While he was listed at times as a TE, and people have talked about him being able to play FB and/or H-back, he was not used in a blocking role in college. He carried the ball and ran routes. So I am skeptical that he will be able to transition effectively into a role that requires him to block effectively for others in order to be successful.

I think he would be a good candidate for a third down and red zone RB role. The problem is, Pittsburgh doesn't need that.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't see him with any real fantasy value.

 
WR DJ Chark, Jaguars - Little and fast. I don't think he's more than a situational deep threat in the NFL.
How is he little...listed on NFL.com at 6' 3" and 199 lbs.

i agree that he might only end up being a situational deep threat, especially on the Jags but little?  

 
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Great write-up.  If you’ve read PFF grades, thoughts on their elusiveness rating system?  Penny rated #2 of all prospects on their elusiveness grade, and my untrained eye was pretty impressed watching him as well.   Just curious how you might reconcile that.


IIRC broken tackles might factor into their measure of "elusiveness," which doesn't work for me because I don't think tackles broken with power/strength are really indicative of elusiveness, which to me means quick feet/hips to avoid contact.

From an eyeball test standpoint, I don't think Penny is an elusive back. Barkley, Chubb, Jones, Edmonds, Wilkins, Ballage, and others all have better agility.

What Penny has is a rare size/speed combo. You don't see a lot of big backs with 4.4 speed.

 
How is he little...listed on NFL.com at 6' 3" and 199 lbs.

i agree that he might only end up being a situational deep threat, especially on the Jags but little?  
Probably more accurate to describe him as lean instead of little. 199 is a toothpick for an NFL WR who is almost 6'3".

Typically, most NFL WRs have a body type somewhere between 26.0-29.0 on the BMI scale. 26.0-27.0 would typically be a lean finesse style WR like AJ Green or Reggie Wayne. 28+ is where you see the big-body possession types like Crabtree, Fitzgerald, JuJu, and V Jackson. Any higher than that and you're probably talking about a TE or RB.

Chark is a 25.0, which is extremely light. Off the top of my head, there aren't a lot of success stories in that territory. DeSean Jackson maybe? That gives you an idea of how thin Chark's frame is. At least he's fast though. My rule is that if a player is small, he needs to be fast, and Chark does have speed.

 
IIRC broken tackles might factor into their measure of "elusiveness," which doesn't work for me because I don't think tackles broken with power/strength are really indicative of elusiveness, which to me means quick feet/hips to avoid contact.

From an eyeball test standpoint, I don't think Penny is an elusive back. Barkley, Chubb, Jones, Edmonds, Wilkins, Ballage, and others all have better agility.

What Penny has is a rare size/speed combo. You don't see a lot of big backs with 4.4 speed.
Yeah, they don’t disclose the formula.  But, according to their site, it’s a combo of broken/missed tackles and yards after contact.  I think it’s a fair proxy, but as you suggest, probably incomplete.  Agree about Chubb, whose hips are on a swivel and can really thread the needle, especially for a bigger back.

 
I can see preferring Hurst based on draft position, but I can't see dropping Gesicki as far as you did given that he had good college production AND stellar athletic metrics plus is going to a team where he will get a chance to start out of the gate.
All of that and he still fell to the 2nd round because teams don't love his tape. He's not the athlete people think he is. Shorts/shoes stuff doesn't necessarily translate onto the field. Like I said, he's the Justin Hunter of TEs. No base strength. Bad route runner. Minimal elusiveness in space. He's tall, lean, and explosive in a straight line. A lot of football is played in tight quarters though and guys who can't cut and move in small windows often struggle.

Hurst is a better athlete in most of the ways that matter for a TE. Much stronger, more compact, better in his routes, and better in the open field. That's why he was picked higher. Gesicki is a situational deep threat/red zone target. I personally don't think he's capable of developing into a reliable every down player. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. That's my take though, and I'm going with it.

 
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Probably more accurate to describe him as lean instead of little. 199 is a toothpick for an NFL WR who is almost 6'3".

Typically, most NFL WRs have a body type somewhere between 26.0-29.0 on the BMI scale. 26.0-27.0 would typically be a lean finesse style WR like AJ Green or Reggie Wayne. 28+ is where you see the big-body possession types like Crabtree, Fitzgerald, JuJu, and V Jackson. Any higher than that and you're probably talking about a TE or RB.

Chark is a 25.0, which is extremely light. Off the top of my head, there aren't a lot of success stories in that territory. DeSean Jackson maybe? That gives you an idea of how thin Chark's frame is. At least he's fast though. My rule is that if a player is small, he needs to be fast, and Chark does have speed.
^ thanks for the clarification! I agree with this completely

 
I am a NC State alum and fan and watched 90%+ of Samuels' career games. He was a playmaker in college - 45 TDs in 39 games in his last 3 seasons, career 6.1 ypc and 9.2 ypr, and set the all-time NC State record for career receptions (previously held by Jerricho Cotchery, who himself surpassed Torry Holt).

While he was listed at times as a TE, and people have talked about him being able to play FB and/or H-back, he was not used in a blocking role in college. He carried the ball and ran routes. So I am skeptical that he will be able to transition effectively into a role that requires him to block effectively for others in order to be successful.

I think he would be a good candidate for a third down and red zone RB role. The problem is, Pittsburgh doesn't need that.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't see him with any real fantasy value.
He's a 4th round rookie pick, which is strictly flyer territory. Great athletic qualities with 4.5x speed at a 30.x BMI. That's an unusual mass/speed combo.

I think he looks fluid in his clips and in his combine workout. If I were a coach, I'd use him as a chess piece. You can line him up anywhere in the backfield and then motion him and have him run routes. He's a non-traditional playmaker, but we've seen that work (Hernandez, Welker, Cobb, T Hill). The draft slot doesn't indicate a huge degree of optimism from the league, but that's factored into his rookie ADP. He's dirt cheap. Minimal risk.

 
All of that and he still fell to the 2nd round because teams don't love his tape. He's not the athlete people think he is. Shorts/shoes stuff doesn't necessarily translate onto the field. Like I said, he's the Justin Hunter of TEs. No base strength. Bad route runner. Minimal elusiveness in space. He's tall, lean, and explosive in a straight line. A lot of football is played in tight quarters though and guys who can't cut and move in small windows often struggle.

Hurst is a better athlete in most of the ways that matter for a TE. Much stronger, more compact, better in his routes, and better in the open field. That's why he was picked higher. Gesicki is a situational deep threat/red zone target. I personally don't think he's capable of developing into a reliable every down player. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. That's my take though, and I'm going with it.
You keep repeating this yet virtually every scouting report says the exact opposite and talk about how well he runs routes.

Certainly entitled to your opinion but you seem to bang forth a narrative that isn't shared by most.

Same goes for the straight line stuff. His agility testing says otherwise. As does his basketball and volleyball skills. Objectively, what you are describing doesn't quite fit. 

And "falling" to the top of the 2nd round is hardly some indictment of lack of talent for a TE. It's been pointed out that virtually every top fantasy TE was drafted around the exact same spot as him in the 2nd round.  There is nothing negative about his draft spot.

 
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And "falling" to the top of the 2nd round is hardly some indictment of lack of talent for a TE. It's been pointed out that virtually every top fantasy TE was drafted around the exact same spot as him in the 2nd round.  There is nothing negative about his draft spot.
That's a little bit deceptive since Gronk sat out his entire last year of college and Graham was a basketball player. Those guys account for a big chunk of the TE production in the past decade. There are others like Witten and Kelce who were round 2-3 picks, but if you want to look at it in probabilistic terms, there are more people like Maxx Williams and Jace Amaro than Jason Witten and Zach Ertz. I'm betting that Gesicki is more Joe Klopfenstein and Gavin Escobar than Jason Witten.

NFL.com's scouting report echoes most of what I've said about Gesicki:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-gesicki?id=32462018-0002-5598-8955-096ca0282cf3

Built more like a high-jumper than a tight end

Long and lanky with a stride length that limits quickness in and out of breaks

Will struggle to shake coverage on short routes near the line of scrimmage

Play strength is below average


Typically, I'm a bit of a mark for good TE prospects. I rated Ebron and Eifert very highly. I like Hurst. Last year I had Engram, Howard, and Njoku rated highly. Going back further, I was big on Winslow. I liked Heap and Shockey. I tend to draft a lot of TEs and end up with a lot of them on my rosters. I don't like Gesicki though. I've never seen a TE like him become successful. He doesn't have the physical strength of Graham/Gronk/Kelce/Ebron/Witten. He's not elusive or good in space like Reed or Hernandez.

He's a luxury weapon whose traits don't really translate to what actually works in the NFL, like a more sure-handed TE version of Devin Funchess or Justin Hunter.

 
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That's a little bit deceptive since Gronk sat out his entire last year of college and Graham was a basketball player. Those guys account for a big chunk of the TE production in the past decade. There are others like Witten and Kelce who were round 2-3 picks, but if you want to look at it in probabilistic terms, there are more people like Maxx Williams and Jace Amaro than Jason Witten and Zach Ertz. I'm betting that Gesicki is more Joe Klopfenstein and Gavin Escobar than Jason Witten.

NFL.com's scouting report echoes most of what I've said about Gesicki:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-gesicki?id=32462018-0002-5598-8955-096ca0282cf3

Typically, I'm a bit of a mark for good TE prospects. I rated Ebron and Eifert very highly. I like Hurst. Last year I had Engram, Howard, and Njoku rated highly. Going back further, I was big on Winslow. I liked Heap and Shockey. I tend to draft a lot of TEs and end up with a lot of them on my rosters. I don't like Gesicki though. I've never seen a TE like him become successful. He doesn't have the physical strength of Graham/Gronk/Kelce/Ebron/Witten. He's not elusive or good in space like Reed or Hernandez.

He's a luxury weapon whose traits don't really translate to what actually works in the NFL, like a more sure-handed TE version of Devin Funchess or Justin Hunter.
You skipped the strengths section on that same page that has several remarks about his route running which is what I specifically said.

As to recent non-1st round TEs, here you go. 

Gronk #42 overall (2nd round)
Kelce #63 overall (2nd round)
Ertz #35 overall (2nd round)
Henry #35 overall (2nd round)
Graham #95 overall (3rd round)
Reed #85 overall (3rd round)

Again, 42nd overall is NOT a negative for a TE. At all.

 
You skipped the strengths section on that same page that has several remarks about his route running which is what I specifically said.

As to recent non-1st round TEs, here you go. 

Gronk #42 overall (2nd round)
Kelce #63 overall (2nd round)
Ertz #35 overall (2nd round)
Henry #35 overall (2nd round)
Graham #95 overall (3rd round)
Reed #85 overall (3rd round)

Again, 42nd overall is NOT a negative for a TE. At all.
Recent history of 2nd round TEs:

Hunter Henry

Maxx Williams

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Jace Amaro

Troy Niklas

Zach Ertz

Gavin Escobar

Vance McDonald

Coby Fleener

Kyle Rudolph

Lance Kendricks

Rob Gronkowski

Richard Quinn

John Carlson

Fred Davis

Martellus Bennett

Zach Miller

Joe Klopfenstein

Anthony Fasano

Tony Scheffler

Ben Troupe

Kris Wilson

Bennie Joppru

LJ Smith

Doug Jolley

Alge Crumpler

I count 7 hits and 19 misses. That's about a 30% batting average. Even if you exclude the dry years from about 2001-2007, it's still well below 50%.

Objectively, players picked here are more likely to bust than succeed. Subjectively, I think Gesicki is a lot closer to Escobar and Amaro than people like Gronkowski and Henry. If you like him, draft him. It's immaterial to me. I don't like him and since these are my rankings, he's not going to get a high spot. Raising the same points again and again isn't going to persuade me since I've already made up my mind. We'll have to wait and see.

 
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LOL at the intransient positions in here.  Complete with edited, carefully-selected stats to support opinions..

Thought this place was for discussion/debate?

 
Recent history of 2nd round TEs:

I count 7 hits and 19 misses. That's about a 30% batting average. Even if you exclude the dry years from about 2001-2007, it's still well below 50%.

Objectively, players picked here are more likely to bust than succeed. Subjectively, I think Gesicki is a lot closer to Escobar and Amaro than people like Gronkowski and Henry. If you like him, draft him. It's immaterial to me. I don't like him and since these are my rankings, he's not going to get a high spot. Raising the same points again and again isn't going to persuade me since I've already made up my mind. We'll have to wait and see.
I think we can do that for almost every position to be fair.

I'm not taking a stance on Gesiecki one way or the other but you were responding to a post that stated him going in Round 2 is not a negative indictment and he's correct. That means he was valued by NFL draft evaluators. What you posted doesn't refute that unless you are specifically trying to say that the "19 misses" failed because they were drafted in Round 2.

 
EBF do you see some similarity between Kareem Hunt and Raashad Penny?

Where did you have Hunt ranked last year?

6. RB Rashaad Penny, Seahawks - I like the draft slot, the immediate opportunity, the NCAA production, and the size-speed combo. Penny has no shortage of positives and is yet another high-profile rookie RB from this list who could start on day one. Still, he doesn't really jump off the screen in the way that I'd expect a first round RB to do. When I watch him run, I see solid, not special. His long speed is good for his size, but his game seems to lack a bit of suddeness and he's not an overly elusive back. Although they have a different body type and play style, the situation, talent level, versatility, and draft slot remind me of former Colts RB Joseph Addai. Addai wasn't really a special back in the NFL, but he was okay at everything and that was enough to make him a productive FF starter for a few years. I wouldn't expect greatness from Penny, but he should be a decent plug-and-play option right away and his sheer speed will likely lead to some big plays.
Based on your write up and having him at the top of tier 3 (6th overall and ahead of some other good RB prospects from this draft) I am guessing he is ranked higher than you had Hunt last year.

 
You skipped the strengths section on that same page that has several remarks about his route running which is what I specifically said.

As to recent non-1st round TEs, here you go. 

Gronk #42 overall (2nd round)
Kelce #63 overall (2nd round)
Ertz #35 overall (2nd round)
Henry #35 overall (2nd round)
Graham #95 overall (3rd round)
Reed #85 overall (3rd round)

Again, 42nd overall is NOT a negative for a TE. At all.
Some people never change, and with the OP the last word on any subject is always draft pedigree, which ultimately, is just arguing probabilities.

 
Recent history of 2nd round TEs:

Hunter Henry

Maxx Williams

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Jace Amaro

Troy Niklas

Zach Ertz

Gavin Escobar

Vance McDonald

Coby Fleener

Kyle Rudolph

Lance Kendricks

Rob Gronkowski

Richard Quinn

John Carlson

Fred Davis

Martellus Bennett

Zach Miller

Joe Klopfenstein

Anthony Fasano

Tony Scheffler

Ben Troupe

Kris Wilson

Bennie Joppru

LJ Smith

Doug Jolley

Alge Crumpler

I count 7 hits and 19 misses. That's about a 30% batting average. Even if you exclude the dry years from about 2001-2007, it's still well below 50%.

Objectively, players picked here are more likely to bust than succeed. Subjectively, I think Gesicki is a lot closer to Escobar and Amaro than people like Gronkowski and Henry. If you like him, draft him. It's immaterial to me. I don't like him and since these are my rankings, he's not going to get a high spot. Raising the same points again and again isn't going to persuade me since I've already made up my mind. We'll have to wait and see.


It’s always interesting when people are high on a rookie that the only comparisons they are interested in considering are the successes.  It’s as though the less than successful picks just don’t merit any consideration.

 
I think we can do that for almost every position to be fair.

I'm not taking a stance on Gesiecki one way or the other but you were responding to a post that stated him going in Round 2 is not a negative indictment and he's correct. That means he was valued by NFL draft evaluators. What you posted doesn't refute that unless you are specifically trying to say that the "19 misses" failed because they were drafted in Round 2.
In the grand scheme of things, the second round is still a very high pick. However, it's not quite an elite pick and if someone slides there despite having good production, a strong combine, and high visibility at a major school then you have to wonder what teams did or didn't see to pass on him in the first round. That was my point with Gesicki. If he's this flawless prospect with dominant athletic traits then why did teams fade him in the first round? A year ago they took three TEs in the first round. He doesn't have the excuse of being a newcomer like Jimmy Graham or sitting out the entire year with a back injury like Gronk, so why did he fall?

Ultimately, I use draft position to get a rough sense of how the league values the player, and then from there I look at the player myself to determine whether I like him more or less. Then I'll move him up or down if needed. I have other guys like Ridley, Penny, and Michel ranked slightly lower than where they should be based purely on draft slot. I have other guys ranked much lower (Gesicki, A Miller, Chark, Pettis, and others would all be on this list if it was purely down to draft slot).

It's a double whammy with Gesicki because I'm not convinced by his game clips and he also plays a non-premium position. It's the same reason why I have Josh Allen so low. Low confidence combined with low value FF position.

 

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