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EBF

Top 24 Rookie 2018

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

EBF do you see some similarity between Kareem Hunt and Raashad Penny?

Where did you have Hunt ranked last year?

Based on your write up and having him at the top of tier 3 (6th overall and ahead of some other good RB prospects from this draft) I am guessing he is ranked higher than you had Hunt last year.

I think Guice is most similar to Hunt of this year's backs. Power, speed, and just okay footwork/cuts.

I wasn't very high on Hunt last year. He was RB7 and 14th overall on my first pass, but within about a week I moved him ahead of Foreman and Perine into the RB5 spot.

I didn't think he'd be as good as he was though.

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38 minutes ago, EBF said:

In the grand scheme of things, the second round is still a very high pick. However, it's not quite an elite pick and if someone slides there despite having good production, a strong combine, and high visibility at a major school then you have to wonder what teams did or didn't see to pass on him in the first round. That was my point with Gesicki. If he's this flawless prospect with dominant athletic traits then why did teams fade him in the first round? A year ago they took three TEs in the first round. He doesn't have the excuse of being a newcomer like Jimmy Graham or sitting out the entire year with a back injury like Gronk, so why did he fall?

Ultimately, I use draft position to get a rough sense of how the league values the player, and then from there I look at the player myself to determine whether I like him more or less. Then I'll move him up or down if needed. I have other guys like Ridley, Penny, and Michel ranked slightly lower than where they should be based purely on draft slot. I have other guys ranked much lower (Gesicki, A Miller, Chark, Pettis, and others would all be on this list if it was purely down to draft slot).

It's a double whammy with Gesicki because I'm not convinced by his game clips and he also plays a non-premium position. It's the same reason why I have Josh Allen so low. Low confidence combined with low value FF position.

QB is a low FF value position? Say what now?

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1 minute ago, Magic_Man said:

QB is a low FF value position? Say what now?

In most leagues (where you only start 1), yes it is. It's basic supply and demand.

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

It’s always interesting when people are high on a rookie that the only comparisons they are interested in considering are the successes.  It’s as though the less than successful picks just don’t merit any consideration.

Hit rate for one position in one round is a data point, useful when compared with other rounds, and other positions.  History of 2nd round TEs isn't particularly weaker than any other fantasy spot.  

The best TEs for fantasy come from the top 3 rounds.  It's not like OG.  

At the same time, if you don't like a guy's game, and therefore his outlook, that's valid.  I don't like Kerryon Johnson.  Pointing to workout numbers and situation isn't gonna change my mind.  Same applies for Gesicki.  

 

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If you look at the last 10 years at TE you have last year's three, Ebron, Eifort, Gresham, Pettigrew, and D. Keller.  If you go back further you get a few more successful guys but you also get some Daniel Grahams, Jerramy Stevens, Anthony Bechts, and so on.  The fact of the matter is that TE's in general have historically taken a few years to develop, are very dependent on the system they go into (no points for blocking), and very few end up being top picks for a number of years.  Of the 1st rounders since 2000, there have been some consistently productive guys like Olsen, Dallas Clark, etc. and many more that flashed for a short time or had a good year or two but not that many long time perennial top 5 picks at the position.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

In most leagues (where you only start 1), yes it is. It's basic supply and demand.

Yea, in a start 1 QB/TE league with 10-14 teams, it's pretty likely that almost everybody has a QB/TE they feel good about, which means the trade market for any QB/TE short of the Pro Bowl level is going to be minimal. You're aiming at a pretty small target hoping to get a Graham/Gronk/Olsen/Brees/Rodgers/Peyton. Anything less than that doesn't matter too much.

On the other hand, a strong rookie year from a WR/RB can vault them into the top 30-40 of startup drafts pretty easily.

So right away with a TE, you'd have to see something really special to rank him ahead of WR/RB who were drafted in a similar range by the NFL. That's why even though I like Hurst, I have him at #13 overall. Goedert/Andrews would be even lower on this list in a typical year, but this draft looks a little thin to me in the middle rounds. In a normal year I'd be higher on the 2nd-3rd round NFL draft WRs and would have most of them ranked ahead of those TEs.

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40 minutes ago, massraider said:

Hit rate for one position in one round is a data point, useful when compared with other rounds, and other positions.  History of 2nd round TEs isn't particularly weaker than any other fantasy spot.  

The best TEs for fantasy come from the top 3 rounds.  It's not like OG.  

At the same time, if you don't like a guy's game, and therefore his outlook, that's valid.  I don't like Kerryon Johnson.  Pointing to workout numbers and situation isn't gonna change my mind.  Same applies for Gesicki.  

 

 

Not sure why you are replying to me when I’m not the one making any comparisons to previously drafted players, good or bad, here.

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12 minutes ago, EBF said:

Yea, in a start 1 QB/TE league with 10-14 teams, it's pretty likely that almost everybody has a QB/TE they feel good about, which means the trade market for any QB/TE short of the Pro Bowl level is going to be minimal. You're aiming at a pretty small target hoping to get a Graham/Gronk/Olsen/Brees/Rodgers/Peyton. Anything less than that doesn't matter too much.

On the other hand, a strong rookie year from a WR/RB can vault them into the top 30-40 of startup drafts pretty easily.

So right away with a TE, you'd have to see something really special to rank him ahead of WR/RB who were drafted in a similar range by the NFL. That's why even though I like Hurst, I have him at #13 overall. Goedert/Andrews would be even lower on this list in a typical year, but this draft looks a little thin to me in the middle rounds. In a normal year I'd be higher on the 2nd-3rd round NFL draft WRs and would have most of them ranked ahead of those TEs.

TE is much harder to find a great player at so it's certainly premium to have 1 of the best.

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17 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Depends on format. If idp are plentiful on waivers then of course you don't pick them early. I don't think that's how most idp leagues are setup though. Mine sure aren't. I think both (top 10 lb) are more valuable than all of the receivers (no top 15 wr). 

Definitely.  In a deep, IDP dynasty a lot of your top LB's go from around the 1.08 to the end of the first.  I've gotten guys like Patrick Willis or CJ Moseley there that are fantasy studs for years.

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30 minutes ago, EBF said:

Yea, in a start 1 QB/TE league with 10-14 teams, it's pretty likely that almost everybody has a QB/TE they feel good about, which means the trade market for any QB/TE short of the Pro Bowl level is going to be minimal. You're aiming at a pretty small target hoping to get a Graham/Gronk/Olsen/Brees/Rodgers/Peyton. Anything less than that doesn't matter too much.

 

Very peculiar mentality.  Unless you know those guys are going to perform like they have before they do, you have no idea whether the guy you are drafting high is the next Brady, Rodgers, or Brees - and given their NFL draft positions and where they landed it’s likely no one who drafted them expected anywhere near their success.

 

You take guys that you like a lot up high.  For me this year it’s Mayfield because I think he has all the prerequisites to be an All Pro QB.  I have no idea if he will or not at this point, but I know if I use your mentality that he most probably will not be there when my 2nd rounder comes up.  This is all a leap of faith right now and there are no guarantees.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

At the same time, if you don't like a guy's game, and therefore his outlook, that's valid.  

Debate starts and ends here - regardless of position.  Punt these guys first and prioritize the one's who have the game you're buying.  The mess in the middle?  Positional value, supply vs. demand, your teams needs, etc. - more important criteria when sorting it out.  Pick the guys you think will be successful first though.

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I wouldn't say it's a peculiar mentality. In most leagues, the highest rated QB and TE in the class are going to fall into the 10-20 range of the rookie draft unless you're in something like a 2QB or 1.5 PPR for TE format. So if you like Mayfield, there's no reason why you shouldn't get him. You just shouldn't have to spend a top 10 pick to do it.

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On 5/12/2018 at 3:52 PM, EBF said:

This is a pretty dire looking WR crop in my estimation. I'm sure there will be some success stories, but the pickings seem pretty slim.

 

The bold underlined statement alone is right on target, aligning with my assessment on this year's WR crop.  Let see how they do 3 years from now. 

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7 hours ago, EBF said:

I think Guice is most similar to Hunt of this year's backs. Power, speed, and just okay footwork/cuts.

I wasn't very high on Hunt last year. He was RB7 and 14th overall on my first pass, but within about a week I moved him ahead of Foreman and Perine into the RB5 spot.

I didn't think he'd be as good as he was though.

I have read some folks comparing him to Hunt and I do see some similarities as well, so I was curious what you thought about that comparison.

I think Hunt is more elusive than Penny is but both of them are slashers who can run inside to outside. I like their style as far as RB types go.

My main problem while evaluating Penny is that he did not seem as elusive as Pumphrey who I thought looked better than he did in the same offense. He is good though and I do have him ranked slightly higher than you do. I like the speed, I like the footwork. He has some good pad level and power as well. Based on your description of him I think we are pretty much on the same page here in regards to him. 

With Hunt I think I thought he was more elusive than you did as the main difference.

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I wouldn't put him in my top 24, and would prefer J'Mon Moore as well....But I'm taking Valdes-Scantling with my last pick everywhere I can.  He seems like he's the forgotten man with Moore going ahead of him, and ESB following him.  

Kid is 6'4" 206lbs, and ran a 4.37/40.  Broad jump was a solid 124.  

It's a long shot, but if he hits, his ceiling is very high with Rodgers at QB.  

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16 minutes ago, Kitrick Taylor said:

I wouldn't put him in my top 24, and would prefer J'Mon Moore as well....But I'm taking Valdes-Scantling with my last pick everywhere I can.  He seems like he's the forgotten man with Moore going ahead of him, and ESB following him.  

Kid is 6'4" 206lbs, and ran a 4.37/40.  Broad jump was a solid 124.  

It's a long shot, but if he hits, his ceiling is very high with Rodgers at QB.  

I haven't watched him at all yet.

I have to wonder why he needed to switch teams in college and did not really produce much until his senior season. His 5th season in college.

The combine metrics (which do not seem to matter for WR at all) did not help him put up numbers.

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9 hours ago, Kitrick Taylor said:

I wouldn't put him in my top 24, and would prefer J'Mon Moore as well....But I'm taking Valdes-Scantling with my last pick everywhere I can.  He seems like he's the forgotten man with Moore going ahead of him, and ESB following him.  

Kid is 6'4" 206lbs, and ran a 4.37/40.  Broad jump was a solid 124.  

It's a long shot, but if he hits, his ceiling is very high with Rodgers at QB.  

Plus side to all that, he can catch. Moore has the dropsies, which I personally hate, to me just as a fan and someone that has watched a lot of tape on all theee guys and by no means do I know crap about player evaluations. I like them in the opposite order drafted, ESB, Scantling and then Moore. Which probably means Moore will be the next Julio and ESB spends his life on the practice squad. I do like the idea of 5 wide sets with three 6’3plus guys that all ran 4.4 or better with Roders at the helm. That could be a scary look for any defense. 

Edited by The Claymaker

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On 5/12/2018 at 6:52 PM, EBF said:

OTHERS: 

  • WR Keke Coutee, Texans - Good athlete, but little. Explosive deep speed. Poor man's TY Hilton.
  • WR James Washington, Steelers - One trick pony deep threat. I don't think he'll do enough besides that to have consistent value.
  • WR Anthony Miller, Bears - Explosive complementary guy. I don't see any real potential for volume or useful FF stats.
  • WR TreQuan Smith, Saints - Tall and lean with good measurable athleticism, but average football athleticism. An Aaron Dobson type. Overdrafted by a couple rounds IMO
  • . WR DJ Chark, Jaguars - Little and fast. I don't think he's more than a situational deep threat in the NFL
  • . WR Dante Pettis, 49ers - Overdrafted because of his return skills. A modest talent at
  • WR. Absolute ceiling would be a #2 for his team, but even that seems unlikely.
  • WR J'Mon Moore, Packers - A tall and smooth athlete. Nice vertical ability. He's a one speed player though and could struggle to consistently separate. Worth a roster spot.
  • WR Jaleel Scott, Ravens - Tall and deceptively athletic. Good jump ball potential. Slow off the line. Builds speed. Worth a waiver claim, but don't go crazy.

Possibility their could be something here.

  First look: Rookies get to work across the NFL at minicamps

Quote

WR Antonio Callaway, a fourth-round pick by the Cleveland Browns in last week's NFL Draft, made a strong impression with his speed and playmaking ability in Friday's rookie minicamp practice. "He is very, very fast – a fast man," quarterback Baker Mayfield said. "He makes good plays on the ball. When you have a guy like that and you get chemistry down, then it is dangerous." Unfortunately, Callaway had to leave Saturday's practice with a toe injury whose severity is unknown. He fell to the fourth round due to a variety of off-field issues in his past, but if he's healthy and can stay out of trouble, the Browns think he can prove to be a bargain.

 

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Re: Gesecki

I have no issue with not liking him, everybody has their opinion and I respect EBF's.

However, what is the opportunity cost of drafting Gesecki in the mid-late 2nd? The RBs and WRs are pretty much dried up, QBs are, well, QBs... so your opportunity cost is drafting Gesecki over Hurst or a QB?

I have no problem paying that cost for an upside TE. Hurst is fine, but probably tops out as TE8 or so, not that valuable... QBs are like that as well, unless you fall in love. Gesecki is a perfectly respectable pick in that 16-24 range.

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27 minutes ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

Re: Gesecki

I have no issue with not liking him, everybody has their opinion and I respect EBF's.

However, what is the opportunity cost of drafting Gesecki in the mid-late 2nd? The RBs and WRs are pretty much dried up, QBs are, well, QBs... so your opportunity cost is drafting Gesecki over Hurst or a QB?

I have no problem paying that cost for an upside TE. Hurst is fine, but probably tops out as TE8 or so, not that valuable... QBs are like that as well, unless you fall in love. Gesecki is a perfectly respectable pick in that 16-24 range.

I prefer Goedert over both of them, even in the lousy landing spot.

Edited by JohnnyU
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6 hours ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

Re: Gesecki

I have no issue with not liking him, everybody has their opinion and I respect EBF's.

However, what is the opportunity cost of drafting Gesecki in the mid-late 2nd? The RBs and WRs are pretty much dried up, QBs are, well, QBs... so your opportunity cost is drafting Gesecki over Hurst or a QB?

I have no problem paying that cost for an upside TE. Hurst is fine, but probably tops out as TE8 or so, not that valuable... QBs are like that as well, unless you fall in love. Gesecki is a perfectly respectable pick in that 16-24 range.

Yeah. I can make a much stronger argument for him than Pettis or freaking Ballage.

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6 hours ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

Re: Gesecki

I have no issue with not liking him, everybody has their opinion and I respect EBF's.

However, what is the opportunity cost of drafting Gesecki in the mid-late 2nd? The RBs and WRs are pretty much dried up, QBs are, well, QBs... so your opportunity cost is drafting Gesecki over Hurst or a QB?

I have no problem paying that cost for an upside TE. Hurst is fine, but probably tops out as TE8 or so, not that valuable... QBs are like that as well, unless you fall in love. Gesecki is a perfectly respectable pick in that 16-24 range.

Makes sense if you think he has a reasonable chance of hitting a high ceiling, but if you don't think it's really possible then it's still better to go for the solid pick. I'd rather have Chris Cooley's career for my FF team than Jace Amaro's, even if Cooley was never a real difference maker. Better to get a useful player than nothing.

People often equate upside with height/weight/speed, but I think that's a mistake. A player can be a great workout athlete like Cordarrelle Patterson or Justin Hunter, but that doesn't mean he actually has a high ceiling. There are lots of great workout athletes who don't have the right skill set to thrive in the NFL. I don't really see the upside that people speak of with Gesicki because I don't think he's a three down player and I think he's too limited as a receiver to be a high usage specialist ala Jordan Reed.

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On 5/15/2018 at 11:54 PM, EBF said:

A player can be a great workout athlete like Cordarrelle Patterson or Justin Hunter, but that doesn't mean he actually has a high ceiling.

Hunter has caught a TD for every 3 receptions the last 2 years.  He has massive upside if a team decides to use him. 

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1 hour ago, cockroach said:

Hunter has caught a TD for every 3 receptions the last 2 years.  He has massive upside if a team decides to use him. 

How long must dynasty league owners wait on Hunter?  Most have moved on.

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2 hours ago, cockroach said:

Hunter has caught a TD for every 3 receptions the last 2 years.  He has massive upside if a team decides to use him. 

Maybe if he caught more than 42% of his targets over that same 2 years.  14 receptions on 33 targets over two seasons doesn't exactly scream to get this guy more targets. 

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On 5/14/2018 at 0:28 PM, EBF said:

I think Guice is most similar to Hunt of this year's backs. Power, speed, and just okay footwork/cuts.

I wasn't very high on Hunt last year. He was RB7 and 14th overall on my first pass, but within about a week I moved him ahead of Foreman and Perine into the RB5 spot.

I didn't think he'd be as good as he was though.

I think it’s still possible he really isn’t as good as he was.  If that makes any sense.

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6 hours ago, cobalt_27 said:

I think it’s still possible he really isn’t as good as he was.  If that makes any sense.

I know what you mean, but even if 1300 rushing yards at 4.9 YPC is the peak of his career, that's still probably better than I ever thought he was capable of.

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15 minutes ago, EBF said:

I know what you mean, but even if 1300 rushing yards at 4.9 YPC is the peak of his career, that's still probably better than I ever thought he was capable of.

Occasionally, a Willie Parker or Travis Henry will rip off a 1400-1500 yard season.  Sometimes it takes a guy who has enough skills to have a job and benefits from a lot of unknown variables.  But, having a great season is not necessarily something to generalize as a predictor of future success.   I would take the ‘under’ on the rest of Hunt’s career, tbh.

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2 hours ago, cobalt_27 said:

Occasionally, a Willie Parker or Travis Henry will rip off a 1400-1500 yard season.  Sometimes it takes a guy who has enough skills to have a job and benefits from a lot of unknown variables.  But, having a great season is not necessarily something to generalize as a predictor of future success.   I would take the ‘under’ on the rest of Hunt’s career, tbh.

Why?

Looking at 25 years of RB careers I found that on average the rookie season is the lowest performing season of all of those RB first 6 seasons in the league. The fourth season was the second lowest. 

That said the average number of top 12 seasons was two. Hunt just had one, so maybe he only has one more in his career.

As far as Willie Parkers career he only had one top 12 season where he scored 16 TD in 2006. However this was sandwiched by him having 1420 combined yards in 2005 where Jerome Bettis scored 9 TD and a 1480 combined yard season in 2007 Parker was RB 15 in 2005 and RB 16 in 2006 despite not scoring many TD in either of those seasons.

Travis Henry had two top 12 RB seasons and a top 20 season later on in his career.

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4 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Why?

Looking at 25 years of RB careers I found that on average the rookie season is the lowest performing season of all of those RB first 6 seasons in the league. The fourth season was the second lowest. 

That said the average number of top 12 seasons was two. Hunt just had one, so maybe he only has one more in his career.

As far as Willie Parkers career he only had one top 12 season where he scored 16 TD in 2006. However this was sandwiched by him having 1420 combined yards in 2005 where Jerome Bettis scored 9 TD and a 1480 combined yard season in 2007 Parker was RB 15 in 2005 and RB 16 in 2006 despite not scoring many TD in either of those seasons.

Travis Henry had two top 12 RB seasons and a top 20 season later on in his career.

I’m not saying Henry and Parker were garbage or that Hunt is either.  But RB15-20 feels more in line with Hunt’s talent over next few years, as were Henry/Parker. 

Hunt obviously had a great season, but I don’t think it’s sustainable with his talent level and new signal caller.   There’s always a bit of recently bias when someone has a strong year, especially Y1, and Henry and Parker are cautionary tales of how we can get swept away in generalizing narratives about guys who have great seasons that are only partly attributable to intrinsic factors, but largely driven by other factors, as I think we can safely say was the case with Henry and Parker.  They were ok RBs, just not top-10 material.

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20 minutes ago, cobalt_27 said:

I’m not saying Henry and Parker were garbage or that Hunt is either.  But RB15-20 feels more in line with Hunt’s talent over next few years, as were Henry/Parker. 

Hunt obviously had a great season, but I don’t think it’s sustainable with his talent level and new signal caller.   There’s always a bit of recently bias when someone has a strong year, especially Y1, and Henry and Parker are cautionary tales of how we can get swept away in generalizing narratives about guys who have great seasons that are only partly attributable to intrinsic factors, but largely driven by other factors, as I think we can safely say was the case with Henry and Parker.  They were ok RBs, just not top-10 material.

Alex Smith did have a fantastic season last year so I would agree its unlikely Mahomes can do as much his first year as a starter.

With less of a passing threat this could hurt Hunts performance.

I guess we'll see. Hard for me to try to project for KC right now with Mahomes only one game in the books so far.

FWIW I considered Hunt a high tier two RB coming in. He exceeded those expectations. I do like him more than Rashaad Penny as a prospect though, even though he wasn't a 1st round pick. So for me right now I feel like I may be too high on Penny and I was too low on Hunt. Just following what you and EBF are saying in regards to Hunts talent level, is may be similar to a tier two (RB 13-24) type of player who performed a lot better than that as a rookie. I can see that, its possible. I am more inclined to think that I under estimated Hunt than him out performing his talent level though.

Edited by Biabreakable
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12 hours ago, cobalt_27 said:

I’m not saying Henry and Parker were garbage or that Hunt is either.  But RB15-20 feels more in line with Hunt’s talent over next few years, as were Henry/Parker. 

Hunt obviously had a great season, but I don’t think it’s sustainable with his talent level

 

I don’t get this at all.  You saw how he played in college and during last season, and you still think his talent level is middling despite that?  How do you get there?

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8 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

I don’t get this at all.  You saw how he played in college and during last season, and you still think his talent level is middling despite that?  How do you get there?

He was a 3rd round talent.  That seems about right.  I wasn't blown away watching him last year any more than I was watching Travis Henry drop back-to-back 1300/10 seasons.  Neither are/were middling, but not special either. 

If everything goes right, I'm sure Hunt will be fine this year.  Wouldn't break my neck to get him, either.

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1 hour ago, cobalt_27 said:

He was a 3rd round talent.  That seems about right.  I wasn't blown away watching him last year any more than I was watching Travis Henry drop back-to-back 1300/10 seasons.  Neither are/were middling, but not special either. 

If everything goes right, I'm sure Hunt will be fine this year.  Wouldn't break my neck to get him, either.

 

Seriously, once a player has shown through performance how his skills have transferred to the NFL, the round in which he was drafted is 100% irrelevant.  You haven’t learned that?

 

I don’t understand how you watch Hunt for a season and not see a RB1.  He put up those numbers despite Reid trying to protect him for 4 weeks after the middle of the season by severely managing his touches (after which Reid clearly saw his mistake and fed him the ball) and a 1 touch week 17.

 

He could have posted a much more proific season, and he looks like he fits a Reid lead RB to a tee, which is fantasy gold.  Reid has also admitted his mistake in babying him and has stated he’ll get Hunt more work this season. Compare him to Travis Henry all you want - they are very different backs and I’m wondering how you don’t see that.  

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I am probably the poster boy around here for not overreacting to a player's rookie season, and in saying that 2nd year RBs coming off a strong rookie year (especially ones who weren't drafted highly) are the most volatile asset in fantasy football.  Their history of maintaining that production is terrible, and I typically look to sell them high every chance I get.

Except Hunt.

When I watch him I see elite vision, and those great big thunder thighs that let him run right through arm tackles.  I see a guy that always gets more than what's there.  The eye test is obviously very subjective, but even beyond that Hunt graded out really well on most of PFF's advanced statistics that are meant to take situation out of it and give more weight to talent.

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

Seriously, once a player has shown through performance how his skills have transferred to the NFL, the round in which he was drafted is 100% irrelevant.  You haven’t learned that?

I don’t understand how you watch Hunt for a season and not see a RB1.  He put up those numbers despite Reid trying to protect him for 4 weeks after the middle of the season by severely managing his touches (after which Reid clearly saw his mistake and fed him the ball) and a 1 touch week 17.

He could have posted a much more proific season, and he looks like he fits a Reid lead RB to a tee, which is fantasy gold.  Reid has also admitted his mistake in babying him and has stated he’ll get Hunt more work this season. Compare him to Travis Henry all you want - they are very different backs and I’m wondering how you don’t see that.  

You really seem offended I don’t see what you see, making the point repeatedly.  I don’t know what to tell you, except to say I don’t see it with Hunt, just as I haven’t seen it or trusted it with other RBs who happened to have excellent seasons.  

And you basically missed the point—and set up a straw man (perhaps unintentionally)—in my Hunt-Henry comparison.  I made no reference to them, stylistically.  Henry simply is a cautionary tale of getting too excited about a player because he *proved* how good he was by his productivity in a season or two.  Trent Richardson, C.J. Spiller (two completely different backs) had ADPs in 5-10 range after *proving* to many how good they were.  I get a very similar vibe watching Hunt.  Perhaps I’m wrong.  But, I don’t think he has the talent and/or is in the situation with a new QB to warrant his current ADP.

It’s all conjecture on both our parts at this point.  But, where I will correct you is that the round a player is taken is absolutely relevant.   You missed the point of why I brought that up (or are in making a habit of straw man arguments).  Regardless, there is a strong, statistically significant association between draft order and production.  Have you not learned that?

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48 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I am probably the poster boy around here for not overreacting to a player's rookie season, and in saying that 2nd year RBs coming off a strong rookie year (especially ones who weren't drafted highly) are the most volatile asset in fantasy football.  Their history of maintaining that production is terrible, and I typically look to sell them high every chance I get.

Except Hunt.

When I watch him I see elite vision, and those great big thunder thighs that let him run right through arm tackles.  I see a guy that always gets more than what's there.  The eye test is obviously very subjective, but even beyond that Hunt graded out really well on most of PFF's advanced statistics that are meant to take situation out of it and give more weight to talent.

I totally support this take and the process of arriving at it.  I think I’ve reached a different conclusion, but totally get why/how you’ve arrived at yours.

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14 minutes ago, cobalt_27 said:

You really seem offended I don’t see what you see, making the point repeatedly.  I don’t know what to tell you, except to say I don’t see it with Hunt, just as I haven’t seen it or trusted it with other RBs who happened to have excellent seasons.  

And you basically missed the point—and set up a straw man (perhaps unintentionally)—in my Hunt-Henry comparison.  I made no reference to them, stylistically.  Henry simply is a cautionary tale of getting too excited about a player because he *proved* how good he was by his productivity in a season or two.  Trent Richardson, C.J. Spiller (two completely different backs) had ADPs in 5-10 range after *proving* to many how good they were.  I get a very similar vibe watching Hunt.  Perhaps I’m wrong.  But, I don’t think he has the talent and/or is in the situation with a new QB to warrant his current ADP.

It’s all conjecture on both our parts at this point.  But, where I will correct you is that the round a player is taken is absolutely relevant.   You missed the point of why I brought that up (or are in making a habit of straw man arguments).  Regardless, there is a strong, statistically significant association between draft order and production.  Have you not learned that?

 

I’m not offended in the least.  I’d still like to know how Henry and Hunt are comparable, other than that they both have played RB.  You are the one who has compared the two multiple times.  As I explained previously several times, the comparison makes no sense to me.  Educate me.

 

Oh, and please stop using the term “strawman” unless you intend to use it correctly.  It only makes you sound like you can’t defend your position.

 

And please don’t make me start listing all the successful NFL players who were low picks or UDFAs or were drafted highly and failed.  It’s pointless once the players have or have not established a NFL capable skill set.  How often does anyone bring up Tom Brady and then immediately identify him as a 6th round pick?  It’s a moot point and has been for a long time.

.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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11 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

I’m not offended in the least.  I’d still like to know how Henry and Hunt are comparable, other than that they both have played RB.  You are the one who has compared the two multiple times.  As I explained previously several times, the comparison makes no sense to me.  Educate me.

 

Oh, and please stop using the term “strawman” unless you intend to use it correctly.  It only makes you sound like you can’t defend your position.

 

And please don’t make me start listing all the successful NFL players who were low picks or UDFAs or were drafted highly and failed.  It’s pointless once the players have or have not established a NFL capable skill set.  How often does anyone bring up Tom Brady and then immediately identify him as a 6th round pick?  It’s a moot point and has been for a long time.

.

Well.  

Sorry you missed the point and seem to be having a very bad day.  

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@Bronco Billy, I don't think he was comparing Hunt to Henry as a player, but was just using Henry of an example of how a guy putting up a good season in a good situation doesn't necessarily mean that they're a good player long-term.

Now I'm on the same side as you as Hunt.  As I mentioned above he is a bit of an exception to my rule of selling these guys because he bigtime passes the eye test for me.  But the eye test is subjective.

To @cobalt_27's point, here are all the RBs to put up 1000+ yard seasons as a rookie over the last 15 years after being drafted outside the 1st round of the NFL draft.

Alfred Morris
Steve Slaton
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
LaGarrette Blount
Domanic Davis
Jeremy Hill
Giovanni Bernard
Jordan Howard
Zac Stacy

A few good names in there, but a lot of guys who didn't last too.  Now I think Hunt is more the Forte type where we are seeing the beginning of a beautiful career from a guy that was underdrafted by the NFL, but there is plenty of historical concern about this being a flash in the pan as it was for many others that once had people screaming "did you not see how well he played in his rookie year?!".

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14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

@Bronco Billy, I don't think he was comparing Hunt to Henry as a player, but was just using Henry of an example of how a guy putting up a good season in a good situation doesn't necessarily mean that they're a good player long-term.

Now I'm on the same side as you as Hunt.  As I mentioned above he is a bit of an exception to my rule of selling these guys because he bigtime passes the eye test for me.  But the eye test is subjective.

To @cobalt_27's point, here are all the RBs to put up 1000+ yard seasons as a rookie over the last 15 years after being drafted outside the 1st round of the NFL draft.

Alfred Morris
Steve Slaton
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
LaGarrette Blount
Domanic Davis
Jeremy Hill
Giovanni Bernard
Jordan Howard
Zac Stacy

A few good names in there, but a lot of guys who didn't last too.  Now I think Hunt is more the Forte type where we are seeing the beginning of a beautiful career from a guy that was underdrafted by the NFL, but there is plenty of historical concern about this being a flash in the pan as it was for many others that once had people screaming "did you not see how well he played in his rookie year?!".

Good analysis and appreciate you taking the time to rephrase my point(s) quite nicely.  Forte really is the only one I’d write home about from that list.  Jury remains out on Howard, obviously.

ETA to say I was habitually wrong about Forte, so this totally could cut that way with Hunt, too, no doubt.  I just never saw whatever it was I wanted to see in Forte, always thinking this is the year he loses the gig to the next shiny bright object and chronically undervalued him.  

Edited by cobalt_27

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2 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

@Bronco Billy, I don't think he was comparing Hunt to Henry as a player, but was just using Henry of an example of how a guy putting up a good season in a good situation doesn't necessarily mean that they're a good player long-term.

Now I'm on the same side as you as Hunt.  As I mentioned above he is a bit of an exception to my rule of selling these guys because he bigtime passes the eye test for me.  But the eye test is subjective.

To @cobalt_27's point, here are all the RBs to put up 1000+ yard seasons as a rookie over the last 15 years after being drafted outside the 1st round of the NFL draft.

Alfred Morris
Steve Slaton
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
LaGarrette Blount
Domanic Davis
Jeremy Hill
Giovanni Bernard
Jordan Howard
Zac Stacy

A few good names in there, but a lot of guys who didn't last too.  Now I think Hunt is more the Forte type where we are seeing the beginning of a beautiful career from a guy that was underdrafted by the NFL, but there is plenty of historical concern about this being a flash in the pan as it was for many others that once had people screaming "did you not see how well he played in his rookie year?!".

That's a surprisingly terrible list.

The talent level needed to hold down a starting RB job in the NFL is extremely high. With a slew of talented prospects entering the league each year, anyone who isn't a top 15 RB on the planet is likely to be pushed for playing time. It's not a bad idea to err on the side of caution with most of these guys in FF.

I guess that applies to most players though. How often do players really have the career you envision for them? I remember that great 2011 draft with Richardson, Luck, Griffin, Martin, and Blackmon. That looked to be a rock solid top 5. I would've been happy with any of them. After their rookie season, they all looked destined for stardom. Now? Not so much. Even the monstrous RB class of 2008 that gave us Rice, Charles, Forte, and CJ2K has some cautionary tales (Felix Jones, McFadden, Mendenhall, and Stewart didn't have enduring FF success). For one reason or another, most players won't have the career that you hope they'll have.

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10 minutes ago, EBF said:

That's a surprisingly terrible list.

The talent level needed to hold down a starting RB job in the NFL is extremely high. With a slew of talented prospects entering the league each year, anyone who isn't a top 15 RB on the planet is likely to be pushed for playing time. It's not a bad idea to err on the side of caution with most of these guys in FF.

I guess that applies to most players though. How often do players really have the career you envision for them? I remember that great 2011 draft with Richardson, Luck, Griffin, Martin, and Blackmon. That looked to be a rock solid top 5. I would've been happy with any of them. After their rookie season, they all looked destined for stardom. Now? Not so much. Even the monstrous RB class of 2008 that gave us Rice, Charles, Forte, and CJ2K has some cautionary tales (Felix Jones, McFadden, Mendenhall, and Stewart didn't have enduring FF success). For one reason or another, most players won't have the career that you hope they'll have.

I think this mainly depends on your expectations.

Rashard Mendenhall did finish as RB 7 13 19 and 25 in his 6 year career. When you consider all the different things (most of them unpredictable) that can happen during a players career, Mendenhalls career was better than most (for fantasy) yet you list him as a cautionary tale.

Maybe the expectations are too high.

The average number of top 12 seasons for a RB is two. If any player beats that in their career I would say they have done well. Hell even one top 12 season is a success in my view, at least that player helped you win during that season. A player with three top 24 seasons is still doing well. Maybe not a game changer, but that player was still useful. A lot of them don't really help at all.

What are we being cautious of anyways? 

For RB things change fast. With WR maybe you can get a bit more sustainable success but there are still risks there too. 

This is why I don't think its a good idea to value players for more than 3 seasons away. If you avoid doing that then you are less likely to be disappointed when they fail. 

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12 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I think this mainly depends on your expectations.

Rashard Mendenhall did finish as RB 7 13 19 and 25 in his 6 year career. When you consider all the different things (most of them unpredictable) that can happen during a players career, Mendenhalls career was better than most (for fantasy) yet you list him as a cautionary tale.

Maybe the expectations are too high.

The average number of top 12 seasons for a RB is two. If any player beats that in their career I would say they have done well. Hell even one top 12 season is a success in my view, at least that player helped you win during that season. A player with three top 24 seasons is still doing well. Maybe not a game changer, but that player was still useful. A lot of them don't really help at all.

What are we being cautious of anyways? 

For RB things change fast. With WR maybe you can get a bit more sustainable success but there are still risks there too. 

This is why I don't think its a good idea to value players for more than 3 seasons away. If you avoid doing that then you are less likely to be disappointed when they fail. 

I think this kind of makes @EBF's point more than contradicts it.  Most people don't go into these drafts thinking "I really hope I get one good season out of this top 5 pick, and if I get two I'll be super happy!".  Everyone is going in hoping to hit on the next career plug and play FF RB1/WR1.

The reality of what people should be happy with based on your data is very different than what people emotionally will be happy with when they make the pick.  No one picking a 21 year old Saquon Barkley is hoping they get two RB1 seasons out of him, and the guys drafting Guice and Michel are hoping they have the next Lynch and McCoy, not the next Lacy and Bernard even though the data says those guy's careers are technically a success.

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7 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think this kind of makes @EBF's point more than contradicts it.  Most people don't go into these drafts thinking "I really hope I get one good season out of this top 5 pick, and if I get two I'll be super happy!".  Everyone is going in hoping to hit on the next career plug and play FF RB1/WR1.

The reality of what people should be happy with based on your data is very different than what people emotionally will be happy with when they make the pick.  No one picking a 21 year old Saquon Barkley is hoping they get two RB1 seasons out of him, and the guys drafting Guice and Michel are hoping they have the next Lynch and McCoy, not the next Lacy and Bernard even though the data says those guy's careers are technically a success.

Yeah this is kind of an ongoing conversation EBF have been having for a decade or so now. I am happy to hear him saying pretty much the point I have been trying to make all along. Experience is the best teacher. One of the original conversations about this started with looking at the career expectations of Larry Fitzgerald vs Randy Moss. Now that enough time has passed and Moss has been out of the league now for some time, EBF was right to value Fitzgerald more than Moss, but you put just about any other WR in Fitzgeralds place and not so much.

Your absolutely right that people are hoping to get the next Emmitt Smith or Larry Fitzgerald. Its just not being realistic about it.

FWIW I like Barkleys chances to beat the average same as Elliot. I am less optimistic about Fournette doing so but maybe he can as well.

The draft position is important but that doesn't seem to be scaring people away from Guice much, nor do I think it should. I think Guice is going to be very good and hopefully has a career similar to Mendenhalls. I would be pretty happy with that if he does.

Rookie picks are at best a 50/50 type proposition. I was as bullish as anyone about Trent Richardson when he came into the league, he had the draft position too. Stuff happens. I try to learn from past mistakes and use that to hopefully suss out some of these risks in the future. If I look deeply enough at any player I can find ways they could fail or reasons to not be very high on them. For Barkley I could see him failing because he doesn't like to run between the tackles for example. Everything else is so good though I think that outweighs that concern. Anything can happen though. For all we know Hunt ends up having a better career than Barkley does, I wouldn't bet on that, quite the opposite, but it could happen.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think this kind of makes @EBF's point more than contradicts it.  Most people don't go into these drafts thinking "I really hope I get one good season out of this top 5 pick, and if I get two I'll be super happy!".  Everyone is going in hoping to hit on the next career plug and play FF RB1/WR1.

The reality of what people should be happy with based on your data is very different than what people emotionally will be happy with when they make the pick.  No one picking a 21 year old Saquon Barkley is hoping they get two RB1 seasons out of him, and the guys drafting Guice and Michel are hoping they have the next Lynch and McCoy, not the next Lacy and Bernard even though the data says those guy's careers are technically a success.

Yea, that's exactly it. Guys like Doug Martin, Ryan Mathews, and Rashard Mendenhall aren't really busts. They had decent NFL careers, but they fell short of becoming that Lynch/Forte/Steven Jackson type of player that you could just plug into your lineup year after year. When you're sitting there with the 1.01 or 1.02 rookie pick in a strong draft class, you probably expect to get a long-term star, even if it's not realistic. Over the years you kind of see that even the "premium" prospects usually come with an asterisk. I still believe in being bullish when you think it's warranted, but you have to be selective because most of these guys aren't going to be Rodgers/Lynch/Fitzgerald/Witten where they lock down a spot in your FF team for a decade.

To use this year's draft as an example, Barkley is really the only guy who I'd treat like an elite asset. I have some degree of optimism for many other rookies, but it's not like I'd be surprised to see Ronald Jones or Courtland Sutton irrelevant in 3 years.

The same idea applies for young players who have some initial success. Look at Sammy Watkins, Dak Prescott, and Jeremy Hill. How high did those guys go after their rookie seasons? Probably a lot higher than they should've. Everyone wants to find the next cornerstone players and when young players show flashes, people buy in. I think it's natural to become more of a skeptic over time after you've seen a few draft cycles all the way through, but you still have to pull the trigger if you see someone who looks truly special. I wouldn't hesitate to burn a top 5 startup pick on Barkley. On the other hand, I see 6 of last year's rookie RBs ranked as top 10 dynasty backs on some lists (Fournette, Hunt, Kamara, McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon) and I'll bet that over the next two years half of those guys will see their value degrade significantly.

Just the nature of FF to some extent. A few years ago in a TE premium league I thought I was set with Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron, Eric Ebron, and Tyler Eifert to fill four of my TE/WR slots. I had what were, in my mind, 4 of the top 5 dynasty TEs. Well...Graham and Eifert have dealt with injuries. Ebron has been a mild bust. Cameron fell off the map completely. A guy I grabbed off waivers in the summer of 2016 (Tyreek Hill) outscored every other WR/TE on my roster last season in that league. That's dynasty FF for you. The long-term vision rarely comes together how you imagine, so you just need to keep stockpiling value and hope to ride your luck when some of your picks boom together.

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8 hours ago, cobalt_27 said:

Well.  

Sorry you missed the point and seem to be having a very bad day.  

 

I guess when you get rebutted you just quit.  Do you expect everyone to simply accept your postings as undeniable truth?  My day was just fine though, so you were way off about that too.

 

Have a good day.

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8 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

@Bronco Billy, I don't think he was comparing Hunt to Henry as a player, but was just using Henry of an example of how a guy putting up a good season in a good situation doesn't necessarily mean that they're a good player long-term.

Now I'm on the same side as you as Hunt.  As I mentioned above he is a bit of an exception to my rule of selling these guys because he bigtime passes the eye test for me.  But the eye test is subjective.

 

 

You could pick myriad RBs, who like Hunt and Henry have very little in common about their games, and make conclusions that really have very little value.  His example is perfect.  Hunt and Henry are such different players, and Henry even posted the back to back seasons well into his career after playing with multiple teams, whereas Hunt is doing this right from the jump. I am trying to follow his rationale other than vague references to unrelated RB performance to see if I can understand the point he is trying to make and have asked for explanations several times, and all I get back is more Henry and the feeling that all he has in reference to Hunt is that he doesn’t like him as a RB.  Oh, and the draft position thing for guys who already have a NFL resume.  If that’s all he has, then he’s wasted a whole lot of space saying very little, but I’ve been hoping that isn’t the case.  I guess that is it, since apparently have been dismissed without getting my questions answered.

 

.

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8 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I guess when you get rebutted you just quit.  Do you expect everyone to simply accept your postings as undeniable truth?  My day was just fine though, so you were way off about that too.

Have a good day.

It is respectfully submitted that your rebuttal had nothing to do with what I actually said.  If your whole attitude wasn’t dripping with toolishness, I’d engage.  

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