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Dynasty: RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals

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5 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

No idea where 68% comes from. His snap total the last two weeks has been 29% (20/69) last week and 35% (27/77) the week before. FYI.  

If David Johnson is playing, odds and statistics couldn’t possibly be more against Chase Edmonds having a high floor.  His floor has been 4 points or less in ppr for 5 out of 7 weeks.  A David Johnson injury is mandatory for Chase to have a high floor.  

1. Maybe I was mistaken about snap count. I could have sworn I just read he was in for 68% of the plays in the gMes he was healthy. if not, my mistake. 
 

2. He’s scored 14 & 17 points with Johnson playing a full compliment of snaps, but 10 points in PPR is unrealistic without a DJ injury? Ooooooookay. :unsure:

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10 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Simple question - do you think he will be inactive tomorrow?

Simple answer - I have no idea. 
 

last I checked the Cards don’t call me to ask me if he should play or not, so perhaps my opinion here isn’t the most relevant here? :shrug:
 

this is the last update I’d seen. 

Quote

Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said David Johnson (ankle) is a game-time decision for Week 7 against the Giants.

Kingsbury noted that if the game were today Johnson would not have played. 
 

 


that’s what I have to go by.

if I had a gun to my head I’d say he’s probably gonna play - since they didn’t add a RB. 

but  will he be 100%? Man, that’s a much, much tougher call. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

2. He’s scored 14 & 17 points with Johnson playing a full compliment of snaps, but 10 points in PPR is unrealistic without a DJ injury? Ooooooookay. :unsure:

Way to cherry pick 2 out of 7 weeks for the RB that hasn’t even exceeded 4 points in the other 5 weeks of the season.  But yeah, a 10 point floor.  Solid logic. I suppose it’s realistic that Chase Edmonds is going to score a TD every week as he has the past two weeks.  Oooooooookay.  Good luck my friend. Enjoy your safety net.  We’re just cluttering the thread at this stage.  

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

Way to cherry pick 2 out of 7 weeks for the RB that hasn’t even exceeded 4 points in the other 5 weeks of the season.  But yeah, a 10 point floor.  Solid logic. I suppose it’s realistic that Chase Edmonds is going to score a TD every week as he has the past two weeks.  Oooooooookay.  Good luck my friend. Enjoy your safety net.  We’re just cluttering the thread at this stage.  

Those were his last two games. It’s not cherry picking at all. 

in football a funny thing sometimes happens where players roles increase when the team decides to use them more. 

sometimes it helps to pay attention to those things. 

being abusive to someone because they’re observant of something like that seems kind of ridiculous and not beneficial to a FF community.

we all got our thing I guess. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

being abusive to someone because they’re observant of something like that seems kind of ridiculous and not beneficial to a FF community.

we all got our thing I guess. 

 

Good Lord.  :lmao:

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55 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He’s scored 14 & 17 points with Johnson playing a full compliment of snaps, but 10 points in PPR is unrealistic without a DJ injury? Ooooooookay. :unsure:

I think the issue is with your use of the word floor. 

"Floor" usually doesn't mean "a realistic projection". It usually means "the least this player might get if they have a bad game". 

If you said "i think he'll get ten points, maybe more", that's fine.  And then saying you'd come back and admit it if you're wrong would be admirable. 

But when you say you think his floor is ten points, and you'll come back and admit it if you're wrong, that's misusing the word. You're acknowledging that he might get fewer than ten points, but you think he'll get more.  

As an example this week i think gore has a floor of about 5-6 points in non ppr. I expect him to get enough volume that he's pretty much a lock for 50 plus yards. And i think his ceiling is closer to 30. I can see him getting 120 yards and 3 touchdowns against his former team that also happens to be the worst run defense in the league.  I don't usually think gore's ceiling is that high, but this week i do. 

I think Singletary could get almost completely shut out. They'll probably give him a bunch of touches, especially if it's a blow out, but i can imagine game flows where they just don't use him and feed gore. But i can also see game flows where Singletary breaks a couple good runs and ends up with a couple touchdowns.  So call it 30 fantasy points. 

I have gore projected for slightly more - about 11 points in standard feels right to me - while i have Singletary at around eight.  I also think gore has a higher floor and about the same ceiling this week. And I'd definitely start gore over Singletary in the league where i own both because i happen to have started butker against the mahomes owner this week, so I'm just looking for base hits instead of home runs.  

But most weeks I'd expect gore to have the higher floor, while Singletary has the higher ceiling, so i might start Singletary over gore depending on the rest of my lineup.  

I don't see any reason to believe that Edmunds floor is double digit points.  I think they're using him more, but they've used him more in games where David Johnson also got a ton of work.  Some weeks it might be all David Johnson. Or weeks where neither does well. Or weeks where it's all Kyler Murray. 

Ask a 2018 Tarik Cohen owner about his floor.  Even with a near perfect storm of him playing well, getting volume including touchdown opportunities, and his backfield competition under performing, he still had 4 point weeks. Ask an Aaron Jones owner what his floor is, and he's not even the 1b. Or James white. Or miles Sanders. Etc. Etc. None of these guys have a double digit floor each week. 

So it's really a semantic argument, but an important one to a lot of people.

I agree with most of the rest of what you're saying, and i enjoy your enthusiasm in the shark pool these days.  Keep up the good work and don't get upset about the disagreement.  I read both sides and understand how each of you could be frustrated because you're talking around each other's points a little. We're all guilty of that sometimes.  Good luck tomorrow. 

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Quote

I read both sides and understand how each of you could be frustrated because you're talking around each other's points a little. We're all guilty of that sometimes.  Good luck tomorrow. 

I’m more frustrated when someone accuses me of being on drugs because I suggested a player has a high floor, or well; any FF opinion. Personal attacks seem unnecessary. They’re all just opinions. 

i believe his floor in PPR Is about 10 because he’s being used in the receiving game and around the goal line.

technically any player’s floor is 0 I guess. lol

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

I’m more frustrated when someone accuses me of being on drugs because I suggested a player has a high floor, or well; any FF opinion. Personal attacks seem unnecessary. They’re all just opinions. 

i believe his floor in PPR Is about 10 because he’s being used in the receiving game and around the goal line.

technically any player’s floor is 0 I guess. lol

If he’s scored way under 10 points in most games his floor isn’t 10 points.

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14 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

If he’s scored way under 10 points in most games his floor isn’t 10 points.

He’s also been used much more the last two games. Kind of feels like a pattern. I was speaking of moving forward

like I said - I could be wrong. We’ll probably know more about that tomorrow.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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Good discussion in here.  I would be surprised if Edmonds doesn't see a start or two this year...DJ seems likely to breakdown.

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He’s also been used much more the last two games. Kind of feels like a pattern. I was speaking of moving forward

like I said - I could be wrong. We’ll probably know more about that tomorrow.

His usage the last 2 games also coincides with Kirk having been out. He’s still questionable and reportedly not at 100% still. So in the event he is out again then I’d feel okay about flexing Edmonds or if in a bind due to byes or injuries then possibly as a second RB. 

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Sounds like DJ is gonna play. 

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28 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Sounds like DJ is gonna play. 

Kirk however, is not expected to play 

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17 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

Yep, Chase and his 4 carries per game at 6.7ypc has been carrying teams.  

Lets be real, if David Johnson starts, you can’t start Chase unless you want to be at a disadvantage to your opponent.  It doesn’t matter if he’s averaging 11 yards per carry if he’s only getting 4 carries.

First two weeks =  one carry each. So that can really screw up your average. Just pointing out he's trending upwards and averaging Flex value over the past 4 weeks, even with DJ playing. You seem to be looking for an internet argument, so carry on if you want. A few fantasy teams out there might be desperate for starters due to injuries and byes. 

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FWIW Bloom has Edmonds over Singletary this week (per the “ask Sig” topic) 

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14 minutes ago, LittlePhatty said:

First two weeks =  one carry each. So that can really screw up your average. Just pointing out he's trending upwards and averaging Flex value over the past 4 weeks, even with DJ playing. You seem to be looking for an internet argument, so carry on if you want. A few fantasy teams out there might be desperate for starters due to injuries and byes. 

Totally fine with Edmonds as a desperation start for owners dealing with injuries and byes.  I was presenting some reality based upon objective data, but call it an internet argument if you like. Even your comment, saying he’s averaging flex value over the past four weeks, just feels like pumping up some false narrative about his value considering the first two of those four weeks he scored 3.7 and 3.5 points.  There’s simply a ton of hyperbole for a player that’s had two solid weeks, each of which was anchored primarily by scoring a TD in each game. If someone feels they can bank on a backup RB having a “floor” of 10 ppr points based upon the last two weeks where he’s receiving an average 6.5 carries, 2.5 catches, and scoring a TD on 23.5 snaps per game, then by all means plug him into your lineup.  I think it’s crazy town.  Unless DJ gets hurt, that seems likely to be about the max workload he’s going to receive.  Again, unless DJ gets hurt...which is a distinct possibility.  But until that happens, Edmonds floor is closer to 3 points than it is to 10.

I have one share of DJ and three of Edmonds, for full disclosure.  I’d love for DJ to sit out a few games, but until he does Edmonds won’t see a single lineup for me unless I am indeed desperate.

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:whistle:

 

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9 minutes ago, Scooby1974 said:

Welp, glad I picked him up. Not glad I left him on my bench. Haha

A pair of 20 yard TD runs...ugg. 😂

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

:whistle:

 

Wish I would have followed my intuition and played him. Stud.

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That floor is looking pretty good huh? 

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I’m glad my 5-1 team is in trouble and I had to start Chase Money today. ;)

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9 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

Wish I would have followed my intuition and played him. Stud.

Same. I’ve got 0 from Singletary so far.

17+ on my bench from Edmonds. 

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was very desperate due to byes and injuries and so glad that I had to resort to starting with him.  i didn't see the beginning, did johnson die?

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I just love it when I grab a backup off waivers, then cut him moments before the game because the 1st string guy is active. :wall:

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That floor is looking pretty good huh? 

You are, and were, completely wrong about this guy's floor being 10.  He's been under 10 points in 4 of the first 6 games.

Edited by davearm

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10 minutes ago, davearm said:

You are, and were, completely wrong about this guy's floor being 10.  He's been under 10 points in 4 of the first 6 games.

Things change quickly in the NFL.

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Yep, I’ll be Chasing these points next week. Hopefully I’m not a week or 2 too late. 

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Just now, Long Ball Larry said:

In what way does this prove his floor?

Did he score 10+?  

you're welcome. 

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14 minutes ago, davearm said:

You are, and were, completely wrong about this guy's floor being 10.  He's been under 10 points in 4 of the first 6 games.

You’re looking really super extra wrong right now. Maybe quit while you’re behind? 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

You’re looking really super extra wrong right now. Maybe quit while you’re behind? 

You would do well to learn what is meant by the term floor.

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3 minutes ago, davearm said:

You would do well to learn what is meant by the term floor.

I said he had a safe floor. 
 

technically any player has a floor of 0. I was careful to say “of 10+ points”

I thought it was predictable. Most didn’t. 

It’s ok to just say thank you and move on. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Did he score 10+?  

you're welcome. 

i think you are getting a little a caught up in this.  i played edmonds and am happy with the points, but there is obviously a major extenuating circumstance with DJ going out like this.  I would caution you to exercise a little perspective.

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I think he has earned a 50 percent touch share going forward.  He looks to good to keep of the field 

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18 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

~10 points is exactly how I define “high floor”.  So yeah - exactly what I was thinking . 

Regardless of what happened today, Chase Edmonds' floor was not 10 points.  His floor was week 1.  Or week 2. Or 3. Or 4.

 

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2 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

i think you are getting a little a caught up in this.  i played edmonds and am happy with the points, but there is obviously a major extenuating circumstance with DJ going out like this.  I would caution you to exercise a little perspective.

Not getting caught up at all.

but I specifically said there was likely more to the DJ injury since coach was talking it up a lot. As such I said Chase May get more play. 

i was all but called an idiot for daring to suggest that since “the cards didn’t sign anyone”

that’s it for my participation in this topic. My work here is done. 

have a good one. Good luck to your team. 

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1 minute ago, davearm said:

Regardless of what happened today, Chase Edmonds' floor was not 10 points.  His floor was week 1.  Or week 2. Or 3. Or 4.

 

As is any player in the NFL, making that a semantics argument.  Again: any player can score 0 any week.

the shark move is to identify players who might have a higher floor on a given week like this one. Which I did. 

good luck to your team. 

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9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not getting caught up at all.

but I specifically said there was likely more to the DJ injury since coach was talking it up a lot. As such I said Chase May get more play. 

i was all but called an idiot for daring to suggest that since “the cards didn’t sign anyone”

that’s it for my participation in this topic. My work here is done. 

have a good one. Good luck to your team. 

ok, reading back through the thread, i see more of the context.  good call. :thumbup:

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His floor is 30 points.

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10 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

ok, reading back through the thread, i see more of the context.  good call. :thumbup:

:wub: 

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Hopefully he can repeat next week as Zeke has a bye

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