Extracting Value in Drafts (1 Viewer)

I am struggling to find a good method of pulling value out of the draft.  For instance let's say that you are much higher on Paul Richardson than consensus ADP is showing.  You think he will finish around WR 27 and ADP is WR 52.  This is the difference of a round 6 pick vs round 13.  Where do you target such a player in your draft? 

You don't want to pay the 6th round price but if you wait till the 11th and he gets sniped how much value did you lose.  I was wondering if you guys had a method you used to determine when to pull the trigger on guys like this.

I usually aim to take guys like that a round or two before their ADP.

I am willing to accept some risk that I will miss out on my guy. For example, maybe 20% of the time Richardson will be gone before my rd11 pick. Then if I'm in 5 leagues, I'll end up paying an 11th for Richardson in 4 of them and I'll miss out on him in 1 league. That seems pretty good. Maybe I'd have to draft Richardson in rd 9 to get him in all 5 leagues - would I rather use 5 9th rounders to get him in all 5 leagues, or 4 11th rounders to get him in 4 leagues? Seems worth giving up 1 share of Richardson in order to move those 4 other picks up from rd11 to rd9.

And, as a bonus, if I'm wrong about loving the player so much (which I very well might be, given that everyone seems to disagree with me about him) I don't lose out too much.

In theory you could do expected value math to calculate the optimal time to pull the trigger, although that would require quantifying the probability that Richardson will still be available in each round (assuming you haven't picked him sooner) as well as the value of Richardson and the value of the best non-Richardson-player available in each round.

Thanks ZWK that was a great answer. I have seen where people do some sort of calculation to determine the optimal spot but your reasoning seems better. 

I feel like getting guys in the middle to late rounds of drafts that vastly outperform their adp is how you win leagues. I know lots of folks draft to make the playoffs but in draft only leagues you often need an amazing year to win and guys vastly outperforming their ADP is how you get there. 

Yeah I always have a handful of guys I reach for.  Just don't do it with every pick

Use your gut. 

You're doing it anyway so just embrace it.

I like the concept of this thread because I find myself in this same quandry a lot.  With so much information out there about ADP and such---sometimes it's spotting these "values" in drafts that makes all of the difference. Being that I mainly play in snake style draft leagues--I find that I have the hardest time determining when to pull the trigger on these types of players when I'm drafting near the edges.  Knowing that I might have to wait 20-23 picks before I select again--I feel like i sometimes reach too far and too often for these types of players.  I do think that draft position needs to be taken into account when doing this.

I also think that the hype surrounding the prospective players also needs to be taken into account.  If a player is getting a decent amount of hype--you might have to reach super early to get him.   I'll give a baseball example.  I got the 9 spot in a 10 team fantasy baseball team this season.  With our scoring format--Ozzie albies had an adp of 103. He was a must draft for me--and once I saw my draft position--I was determined to reach early for him.  Although I thought he would easily be a top 50 fantasy asset--I thought for sure he would be around for me at the 7-8 turn area--so I targeted him there.  That was a mistake as he got drafted in the early 7th.   He would have been a steal for me even at the 5-6 turn--but I let my determination of not drafting him until the 7-8 turn get the best of me.  However--had I had a draft spot closer to the middle--I would have easily targeted him in the middle of the 6th knowing that my next pick is only 10 spots later.   This just goes to show the importance of draft position when trying to determine how far you need to reach for players like this.   

All good answers here except for letting your lunch draft for you.

It somewhat depends on the player I think too.

Some players you may see as values compared to their draft position, but they may not be players that you think you must have on your team.

To give an example I think Lamar Jackson is going to be a difference making player in fantasy in 2019. I think his ADP is lower than it should be but I want to make sure I am the person drafting him. Therefore I am willing to reach ahead of ADP as ZWK suggests.

I also think Mike Gesicki is a player with more upside than the other 2018 rookie TE. However I am not so high on him that I would draft him ahead of ADP the way I would Jackson. I do not really care if I miss out on drafting him. So I won't reach, but I would be happy to take him at ADP.

need2know makes a good point to not use too many of your picks on players who you see as underdrafted. If you reach ahead of ADP on a lot of your picks, then you are not getting value out of taking players who you think the consensus are too low on.

jvdesigns makes a good point about your draft position dictating when you may need to reach on a player if you really want to have them. If you are drafting at the ends for example and a lot of picks between your pick and your next pick(s) then you have to be thinking rounds ahead a bit more than being able to let the draft come to you when drafting in the middle. If you see a QB run about to happen for example, you may want to take the best QB a round or two higher than the ADP just because you can't be sure a good one will still be available to you if you wait until your picks at the next turn.

I am usually not ;locked in to any specific players as ones that I think I must have. I like a lot of players and I see many players as all being in the same tier, so if I cannot get player X because they were drafted before me, not a big deal as I will just draft player Y or Z instead. Lamar Jackson would be an example of a player that I can't  draft another player like him, so he gets priority from me and I will reach for him to make sure I get him, because there isn't any other player that I see having the same upside as Jackson.

Where this kind of thing comes into play for me is when I can trade during the draft. If I have 8 players in the same tier at my pick for example, then I am fine with trading down 7 spots as I am then sure I will still get one of those 8. Sure I might like one of those 8 more than the rest, but if I can still get the last guy of the tier and add value in another pick by trading down, then I do that. The only exception to this would be if I think the player is a unique talent, such as my Lamar Jackson example. Then I won't trade down if he is there, as I don't want to risk not getting him.

I recall doing several drafts and also mock drafts in 2016 where I thought Jay Ajayi was really under valued. In early drafts I was taking him way ahead of his ADP just based on my projections. I think the earliest I drafted him was the 4th round. I think many considered this a reach at the time and based on ADP it was, but he still provided value to me at that draft position. Each draft I participated in I kept drafting him a little lower than the one before. The signing of Arian Foster greatly helped this cause. As it turns out I was happy that I had him in almost every league I was in that year, but he provided a lot more value to my teams that took him later than the ones where I selected him early. There is an opportunity cost of reaching on a player even if that player had the most value for the draft position you used on him, you still could have taken another player not as valuable at ADP and also added the player with the highest value later in the draft.

1-2 rounds before ADP usually, but if I really want a player, I don't worry about reaching. There is a lot of going with the herd mentality in FF. It's your team. Get the players that you like. The worst feeling is watching players you like/want before the season come through with great seasons and you didn't get them because you stuck to value and didn't reach a bit vs ADP.

NYRAGE said:

1-2 rounds before ADP usually, but if I really want a player, I don't worry about reaching. There is a lot of going with the herd mentality in FF. It's your team. Get the players that you like. The worst feeling is watching players you like/want before the season come through with great seasons and you didn't get them because you stuck to value and didn't reach a bit vs ADP.

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Regret, thine name is Alvin Kamara!

Always keep opportunity in mind. That's the most important consideration in my mind. Go with your gut, don't worry about reaching. If you strike out on the reach, you aren't the first to do so. Besides, there are guys that fall under the radar and wind up being big steals. Do people give each other crap about not being able to identify that.

With that said, I do like the idea of trading draft picks to get a top 3 prospect in the draft, or an established starter/star.

As far as offseason news, OurLads can be unreliable at a time like now, and all kinds of players are getting hype right now. Can't read too much into that. Gotta look at chances to start, who the supporting cast is, what kind of scheme the offense and/or defense run, and the credentials of the coaching staff. Those will all help you gauge opportunity and ideally give you an idea of what to expect from a certain player.

You also gotta look at what round a player was drafted in during the actual NFL draft. It's no secret that the higher up you are drafted, the longer your career will likely be, and the more chances you will receive at being a starter. If you like a 3rd round guy more than a 2nd round guy, then that's fine, but still, odds are with the 2nd round guy more than they are the 3rd rounder. However, if you like a 5th rounder more than a 2nd rounder, then take the 2nd rounder before the 5th rounder, and just reach on the 5th rounder later.

I’m not afraid to reach if I like someone, and have had mixed results just like all picks. With the way online drafts are, with a ranked list to choose from, it’s a lot harder to try to hope a guy falls to you. For redraft or year 1 dynasty drafts that aren’t auctioni feel it’s very important to scout the lists, there are always guys that are ranked funny on those lists and you can sometimes have a guy slip a round or two because he’s buried on the list. Espn, yahoo, rtsports, MFL, all have different rankings. It’s still good to have your own list of players so you don’t get caught looking at the available list and not scrolling far enough. 

Stick to your guns. I usually have a plan depending on draft slot, and you have to adjust the plan as the draft unfolds. But if you’ve been planning on waiting for a qb or te and have targets kind of picked out for each round and you get into rd 3 and get some whim to draft russel Wilson because 3 qbs were just taken, or you have Keenan Allen ranked as wr 7 and he’s sitting there in rd 4 and you’re wondering if he got injured and you just don’t know why he’s being passed up, just remember you spent all this time preparing (I’m assuming if you’re reading this in June you’re prepared in August) and stick to your plan. If you think Eddie lacy is a bum and he’s staring at you and you think “well he’s on Seattle and should get work” it shouldn’t matter if you think he sucks. Target his backup later and take someone else. Don’t be afraid to pass on a guy you don’t like despite what his adp is telling you, take the guy you like. 

I took Le'Veon 1.01 in the rookie draft. A lot of people thought I was insane, but after scouting Lacy, Gio and others, I liked Le'Veon the most. So I took him and was very happy I did.

Understanding your league and position scarcity are key for me.  In a high trading volume league, you can draft primarily on value, then work out the gaps via trading.  In a low trading volume league, best to work out the gaps during the draft.  

The draft is linear in value, whereas the actual value is not.  I establish tiers to better fit the value.  This way I can move to the value as it presents itself.  I will put most effort into moving a player up or down tier levels, this becomes my draft / do not draft guideline.

I have been doing mock auction drafts to test my draft lists, confirms where to plant my flags and who I am avoiding.

I use the average of the two positions as a guideline. Assuming I had the player ranked 66 and his ADP is 150 averages to 108 so I would target him in the 10th or maybe late 9th depending on my draft spot. I understand waiting for value but don't ever want to wait too long and miss out on a player I like by picking players I value less just because they have higher ADPs and I get too greedy trying to get both.

It depends somewhat on who else is available too. If my next few players available are say my 66, 72 and 80 and 72 and 80 are about to go according to ADP I would probably grab 72 and hope 66 lasts but if it was just 66 and 80 I might jump on 66 just to be sure. The 14 spots is usually more than I'd be willing to gamble by waiting.