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Devin Knotts

Julian Edelman Suspended 4 Games

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Big news, Adam Schefter reporting that Julian Edelman is out for the first four games due to a violation of the NFL Substance Abuse Policy.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1004779821396889600

Let's here it, who benefits the most with Edelman out and Cooks departed.

To me, if Jordan Matthews can stay healthy he's worth a flyer as he's currently the 71st wide receiver in terms of ADP. We've also seen what a healthy Chris Hogan can do early in the year. 

 

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I think Devin has it right. Matthews is pretty much a lock for the roster now and could be a volume/TD guy from the slot. I'd also bump Hogan a smidge, but he was ticketed for a big role either way. Mitchell was a possible x-factor in their receiver corps, but he's missing with the knee again.

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I heard on NFL Network that yesterday Brady stayed after practice to work 1 on 1 with Matthews. I didn’t think much of it but it seems a little more planned now.

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Obligatory damn cheating Pats post! 

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Hogan going to get bumped up a couple of rounds now and Gronkowski maybe is a fringe Round 1 pick, at the very least mid 2nd.

Sony Michel might gain the biggest boost from this news.

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At this point, I don't think anyone gets a genuine bump. I suspect a number of people will see a little extra, but it will vary from game to game.

As far as receivers go, I have no faith in Mitchell being healthy enough to play (he missed the season and still can't get back on the field for more than a day without having to sit out). I want to think that Britt could do something this year, but his contract has no guaranteed money. Dorsett hasn't done much of anything in the NFL. That sort of leaves Matthews, but I doubt he can pick up the offense quick enough to make an impact early. Who knows what Patterson will be used for, but I doubt he would be a possession guy.

I would guess White and Burkhead each see some extra targets out of the backfield. Michel may end up doing a lot down the road, but the high for receptions by a rookie RB under BB in NE is only 22. Maybe he would get a few extra carries while JE11 is out.

Overall, really hard to guess at this stage given that it isn't even training camp yet and the Pats have a lot of new faces on offense.

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I think the bump goes to Matthews. BUT the fear is as @Anarchy99 says, few teams are tougher to figure new pass distribution patterns than NE. Seems it's always a game plan specific thing for them. But overall in the general sense, I see a bump for Matthews. 

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Serious question...

Is there anyone in the league that isn't cheating?

Seems like an arms race to me. If you're not cheating, how can you compete for a job against the guy who is?

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Stinking Tainted Supplement!!  

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I felt Jordan Matthews was being undervalued anyway, with Amendola and Cooks gone. Now he's a stone cold lock for the roster and someone, at current ADP, worth prioritizing. 

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33 minutes ago, Borden said:

I heard on NFL Network that yesterday Brady stayed after practice to work 1 on 1 with Matthews. I didn’t think much of it but it seems a little more planned now.

Aha. Time to adjust the projections spreadsheet...

Thanks Borden!

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Just now, Jason Wood said:

I felt Jordan Matthews was being undervalued anyway, with Amendola and Cooks gone. Now he's a stone cold lock for the roster and someone, at current ADP, worth prioritizing. 

Not sure I agree with this. If Matthews doesn't grasp the system, doesn't mesh with Brady, or shows signs of not being sully healthy, BB would cut Matthews in a heartbeat. It would only cost NE $170K to release him.

That being said, Matthews becomes someone to keep an eye on and could have some decent upside if things play out. A lot depends on how much of the play book he can absorb and if he can gain Brady's trust.

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Hogan gets a bump. Presumably some other WR too, but 1) possibly not by enough for them to be fantasy startable, 2) it's unclear who and will depend on how the competition plays out over the offseason, and 3) it's just for 4 games. So I still don't have much interest in the other Pats WRs. And Edelman still looks like a good buy, possibly an even better buy than before, since it's just 4 games from the fantasy regular season.

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This tweet by Hribar sums it best: https://twitter.com/LordReebs/status/1004787392430174209

Basically, you still want to draft Edelman assuming his ADP slips. He was already a decent mid-round guy. Now he's going to be a steal. Hogan, Matthews, Burkhead, and White will probably end up splitting the Edelman load while he's out but I would keep expectations in typical Patriots check.

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Ooof:

 

Quote

If Julian Edelman's 4 game PED suspension stands. He is out $987,745. In addition to losing $470,588 of base salary, Edelman won't earn 4 games worth of per game roster bonuses ($125,000) & $392,157 of signing bonus will be recouped. Recoupment is mandatory with drug suspensions.

 

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@Justin Bonnema Along those lines, there is also something to be said for the four games helping Edelman get back to full strength coming off an injury.

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28 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

At this point, I don't think anyone gets a genuine bump. I suspect a number of people will see a little extra, but it will vary from game to game.

As far as receivers go, I have no faith in Mitchell being healthy enough to play (he missed the season and still can't get back on the field for more than a day without having to sit out). I want to think that Britt could do something this year, but his contract has no guaranteed money. Dorsett hasn't done much of anything in the NFL. That sort of leaves Matthews, but I doubt he can pick up the offense quick enough to make an impact early. Who knows what Patterson will be used for, but I doubt he would be a possession guy.

I would guess White and Burkhead each see some extra targets out of the backfield. Michel may end up doing a lot down the road, but the high for receptions by a rookie RB under BB in NE is only 22. Maybe he would get a few extra carries while JE11 is out.

Overall, really hard to guess at this stage given that it isn't even training camp yet and the Pats have a lot of new faces on offense.

Good post but the rookie RB stat is a bit misleading.  

RB's NE drafted in the first 5 rounds since 2005

Laurence Maroney (1st round), Shane Vereen (2nd), Steven Ridley (3rd), James White (4th), Sony Michel (1st).  That's it.

They just haven't drafted RB's highly, so not surprising rookie RB's haven't produced in NE. 

 

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Just a thought, was Edelman 100% cleared from injury? 4 game ban might not be the worst for him coming back from injury.

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@Devin Knotts please update the thread title to lead with "Breaking News:..."

TIA

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1 hour ago, Borden said:

I heard on NFL Network that yesterday Brady stayed after practice to work 1 on 1 with Matthews. I didn’t think much of it but it seems a little more planned now.

I found an article that mentions this. Link It’s from a couple days ago but just want to clarify in case I’m going crazy and just hearing things.

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15 minutes ago, eaglezzz said:

Just a thought, was Edelman 100% cleared from injury? 4 game ban might not be the worst for him coming back from injury.

13 months is more than enough time for an ACL and if he's not ready in 13 months I would not think 14 months changes much.

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22 minutes ago, Chaka said:

@Devin Knotts please update the thread title to lead with "Breaking News:..."

TIA

I think we're ok as is. I can see dropping that as much as people seemed to have a problem with it. As he did it is great. 

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1 minute ago, Joe Bryant said:

I think we're ok as is. I can see dropping that as much as people seemed to have a problem with it. As he did it is great. 

You're the boss.

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Posted (edited)

47 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Hogan gets a bump. Presumably some other WR too, but 1) possibly not by enough for them to be fantasy startable, 2) it's unclear who and will depend on how the competition plays out over the offseason, and 3) it's just for 4 games. So I still don't have much interest in the other Pats WRs. And Edelman still looks like a good buy, possibly an even better buy than before, since it's just 4 games from the fantasy regular season.

I whole heartedly disagree here. I think the Matthews signing had already allowed for some healthy debate on where the roughly >200 targets were going to be divided up. Everyone thought it was a simple formula to transfer 140 to Edelman and now you see why Matthews was signed in the first place as well as Patterson, Britt and Michel being brought in. Someone has to get a bump and be significant fantasy wise. There are 13 targets per game available right now for the first four games with the losses from last season.

Edited by Bojang0301

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Big thing was doing as @Devin Knotts did with a clear headline, link to the story (super important) and then if you can, throw a take out to get the ball rolling. 

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Dare I mention:

Edelman is a very limited receiver, one used primarily on quick slants and screens

The Patriots brought in this guy in the offseason, who does virtually nothing but return kicks and catch bubble screens

That guy comes free in virtually every fantasy draft worldwide

I know, I know, pelt me with vegetables. But consider the possibility that your last-round best ball pick works his way into 30+ snaps and a handful of catches a game - in addition to his dynamic kick-return production - over at least the first month.

I'd rather take Matthews late in drafts, too, but his 2018 ceiling is somehow even lower than mine.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

At this point, I don't think anyone gets a genuine bump. I suspect a number of people will see a little extra, but it will vary from game to game.

As far as receivers go, I have no faith in Mitchell being healthy enough to play (he missed the season and still can't get back on the field for more than a day without having to sit out). I want to think that Britt could do something this year, but his contract has no guaranteed money. Dorsett hasn't done much of anything in the NFL. That sort of leaves Matthews, but I doubt he can pick up the offense quick enough to make an impact early. Who knows what Patterson will be used for, but I doubt he would be a possession guy.

I would guess White and Burkhead each see some extra targets out of the backfield. Michel may end up doing a lot down the road, but the high for receptions by a rookie RB under BB in NE is only 22. Maybe he would get a few extra carries while JE11 is out.

Overall, really hard to guess at this stage given that it isn't even training camp yet and the Pats have a lot of new faces on offense.

I agree.  By the time we know who got those extra targets each week, the week will be over.  Then everyone will rush to add/play that guy and next week it will be someone totally different.  Then by the time we have enough data to at least make an educated guess on where the extra targets are going to go the 4 games are up and Edelman is back in the lineup.

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3 minutes ago, Justin Howe said:

Dare I mention:

Edelman is a very limited receiver, one used primarily on quick slants and screens

The Patriots brought in this guy in the offseason, who does virtually nothing but return kicks and catch bubble screens

That guy comes free in virtually every fantasy draft worldwide

I know, I know, pelt me with vegetables. But consider the possibility that your last-round best ball pick works his way into 30+ snaps and a handful of catches a game - in addition to his dynamic kick-return production - over at least the first month.

I'd rather take Matthews late in drafts, too, but his 2018 ceiling is somehow even lower than mine.

I think that grossly underexagerates Edelman's route tree.  The whole point in that position with guys like Edelman, Amendola, Welker is to get quick little guys you can line up in the middle of the field in single coverage who have an option to run an out, hitch, slant, drag, etc.  It's very difficult to cover that in space when you've got a guy with such short area agility.  That's not really something Patterson, who is more of a long-legged long strider, has.  He might get the bubble screens but those bubble screens were a very small percentage of that production, and he's a poor fit for the rest of it.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I agree.  By the time we know who got those extra targets each week, the week will be over.  Then everyone will rush to add/play that guy and next week it will be someone totally different.  Then by the time we have enough data to at least make an educated guess on where the extra targets are going to go the 4 games are up and Edelman is back in the lineup.

Agreed. NE is one of the biggest teases for chasing stats. Be careful. 

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think that grossly underexagerates Edelman's route tree.  The whole point in that position with guys like Edelman, Amendola, Welker is to get quick little guys you can line up in the middle of the field in single coverage who have an option to run an out, hitch, slant, drag, etc.  It's very difficult to cover that in space when you've got a guy with such short area agility.  That's not really something Patterson, who is more of a long-legged long strider, has.  He might get the bubble screens but those bubble screens were a very small percentage of that production, and he's a poor fit for the rest of it.

Oh yeah.. no one, not Matthews, Patterson, or Hogan, is going to absorb Edelman's entire workload, nor even a sizeable chunk by themselves. His value is generally interchangeable - I think Trent Taylor would catch 90 balls in his stead - but high nonetheless. And you nailed down that role perfectly, though I think Patterson could run a handful of those (thoroughly illegal) pick routes that made the world think Welker/Edelman were special players.

Let me clarify: Patterson, even in a best-case, wouldn't be a threat for more than 4-6 tg/gm over the first month. But he's at least an intriguing arbitrage play on Matthews, who'll ride the Pats Mystique to a Round 12 ADP by this weekend.

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I guess an aging WR wanted to speed up his recovery from injury and got caught.  It won't be the last time.   

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Posted (edited)

14 minutes ago, Justin Howe said:

Dare I mention:

Edelman is a very limited receiver, one used primarily on quick slants and screens

The Patriots brought in this guy in the offseason, who does virtually nothing but return kicks and catch bubble screens

That guy comes free in virtually every fantasy draft worldwide

I know, I know, pelt me with vegetables. But consider the possibility that your last-round best ball pick works his way into 30+ snaps and a handful of catches a game - in addition to his dynamic kick-return production - over at least the first month.

I'd rather take Matthews late in drafts, too, but his 2018 ceiling is somehow even lower than mine.

I think you are way underselling what Edelman brings to the table and how complex the NE offense is. I doubt any newcomer is going to make much of an impact in the early going of his stay in NE. And the first four games is unlikely not enough time to gain TB12's trust. 

I Would be surprised if Patterson is on the field very much on offense and will probably have only a limited number of situations or plays that he runs to begin with. Unless he is in a best ball league that includes return yardage, I doubt he deserves much attention in anything other than uber large leagues with gynormous rosters.

ETA: And the Pats have added way more deeper routes the past couple of seasons, so the dink and dunk approach is nowhere near as prevalent as it once once.

Edited by Anarchy99
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Anything that improves the chances of Braxton Berrios suiting up week 1 is good news in my book. It seems like the most shared conclusion in here is to bump Jordan Matthews, but I'm expecting the hype on Berrios to start building now and spike throughout the preseason. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/braxton-berrios?id=32462018-0002-5599-6187-781cce2970bc

 

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Posted (edited)

am I the only one that thinks this does very little to almost nothing in terms of "bumping" any of the WR's..?...I saw somebody above say it bumps another NE WR by two rounds..:shock:..to me this means very little.....especially long term.....I'm not really bumping anybody on NE for a 4 game stint....this isn't like most situations......by the time it gets figured out, he is back....

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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26 minutes ago, Justin Howe said:

Dare I mention:

Edelman is a very limited receiver, one used primarily on quick slants and screens

The Patriots brought in this guy in the offseason, who does virtually nothing but return kicks and catch bubble screens

That guy comes free in virtually every fantasy draft worldwide

I know, I know, pelt me with vegetables. But consider the possibility that your last-round best ball pick works his way into 30+ snaps and a handful of catches a game - in addition to his dynamic kick-return production - over at least the first month.

I'd rather take Matthews late in drafts, too, but his 2018 ceiling is somehow even lower than mine.

 

2 minutes ago, Fresh Prince of Bel Nor said:

Anything that improves the chances of Braxton Berrios suiting up week 1 is good news in my book. It seems like the most shared conclusion in here is to bump Jordan Matthews, but I'm expecting the hype on Berrios to start building now and spike throughout the preseason. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/braxton-berrios?id=32462018-0002-5599-6187-781cce2970bc

 

Leave no stone unturned. I appreciate it. 

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1 hour ago, Phil Alexander said:

@Justin Bonnema Along those lines, there is also something to be said for the four games helping Edelman get back to full strength coming off an injury.

The PEDs would have helped more.

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its kind of crazy that in this thread alone a guy like Mathews gets mentioned as maybe not making the team....to now getting a significant bump....we may get a tiny bit in preseason but probably not enough make a determination either way.....Brady won't play much preseason etc.....and by week 1 who knows what NE will do....so are you really going to feel great about starting anybody really besides Hogan and Gronk?....and when it comes time to pull the trigger in your draft, is Edelman being out 4 games really something that would be the difference of whether you took any of the NE WR's over the next guy on your list...?..  

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