2018 rookie pick 2.03 post NFL draft (Closed) (1 Viewer)

The purpose of these polls is to get an idea of who the majority of voters prefer at a specific pick in a rookie draft. These drafts assume that all 2018 rookie players are available. For the 2QB poll there may be some variance in scoring. Some may be standard, others PPR. I think a lot of 2QB leagues may involve IDP as well so these differences are not accounted for here. Only looking at the offensive skill players in the two most common formats and also 2QB leagues, to get a sense of where the QB are valued relative to other positions, when there is actually scarcity at the QB position. For the TE premium poll this assumes the scoring format is PPR because that is what these leagues almost always are. The polls assume 12 teams and likely 24-26 roster spots as the most common format for dynasty. Short bench dynasty leagues should only care about the top 6-12 rookie players.

If a player isn't listed that you would vote for please vote other and then post the name of the player that you voted for so that player can be added to the next poll. Also please suggest players not listed that you would vote for soon, even if not on the particular poll that is active.

I am populating the polls based off of miqws list

Discussion welcome.Thanks for voting.

Results

Standard

Saquon Barkley 79.6% with 50 votes

Derrius Guice 52.7% with 63 votes

Rashaad Penny 36.5% with 79 votes

Nick Chubb 65.2% with 51 votes

Ronald Jones 43.5% with 53 votes

Sony Michel 49% with 59 votes

Royce Freeman 44% with 54 votes

Kerryon Johnson 46% with 46 votes

DJ Moore 52.6% with 41 votes

Calvin Ridley 31.6% with 41 votes

Courtland Sutton 25.6% with 45 votes

Christian Kirk 44.1% with 39 votes 

Anthony Miller 28.6% with 46 votes

Michael Gallup 41.7% with 39 votes

James Washington 25.7% with 38 votes

PPR

Saquon Barkley 95.5% with 50 votes

Derrius Guice 43.6% with 63 votes

Rashaad Penny 41.9% with 79 votes

Nick Chubb 43.5% with 51 votes

Ronald Jones 47.8% with 53 votes

Sony Michel 70.6% with 59 votes

DJ Moore 48% with 54 votes

Kerryon Johnson 29.7% with 46 votes

Royce Freeman 57.9% with 41 votes

Calvin Ridley 55.3% with 41 votes

Courtland Sutton 39.5% with 45 votes

Christian Kirk 61.8% with 39 votes 

Anthony Miller 38.1% with 46 votes

Michael Gallup 58.3% with 39 votes

James Washington 31.4% with 38 votes

2QB Leagues

Saquon Barkley 69.4% with 50 votes

Derrius Guice 25.5% with 63 votes

Rashaad Penny 23% with 79 votes

Nick Chubb 19.6% with 51 votes

Baker Mayfield 18.6% with 53 votes

Lamar Jackson 11.8% with 59 votes

Josh Rosen 22% with 54 votes

Ronald Jones 24.3% with 46 votes

Sam Darnold 24.7% with 41 votes

Sony Michel 31.6% with 41 votes

DJ Moore 14% with 45 votes (Tie with Josh Allen broken based on miqws list)

Royce Freeman 29.4% with 39 votes (Curious that support for Allen waned)

Calvin Ridley 16.7% with 46 votes

Kerryon Johnson 23% with 39 votes

Josh Allen 31.4% with 38 votes

TE Premium Leagues

Saquon Barkley 75.5% with 50 votes

Derrius Guice 38.2% with 63 votes

Rashaad Penny 41.9% with 79 votes

Nick Chubb 27.5% with 51 votes

Sony Michel 26% with 53 votes

Ronald Jones 41.1% with 59 votes

DJ Moore 24% with 54 votes

Kerryon Johnson 27% with 46 votes

Royce Freeman 39.5% with 41 votes

Mike Gesicki  23.7% with 41 votes

Christian Kirk 16.7% with 45 votes

Dallas Goedert 17.7% with 39 votes

Calvin Ridley 21.4% with 46 votes

Courtland Sutton 25% with 39 votes

Hayden Hurst 20% with 38 votes

LInks to previous polls

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1,06

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.10

1.11

1.12

2.01

2.02

The next poll can be found here

So far in these polls more or less the same group of players have been voted in for all 4 polls, with the exception of the 2QB poll that has more QB voted in right now, so some of the other players lagging behind.

Now is where things get more interesting, and perhaps more difficult to make a decision. I am hoping there will be some discussion about this. For example just stating ones opinion on who you voted for and perhaps why, as well as other players you were considering.

I am still following miqws list for populating the poll. So St Brown is the most recent player added. At the same time I wonder if DJ Moore is a better option?

I would add Tre’Quan Smith.  St. Brown has slipped a full round post draft.  A good source of the latest ranks is

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/rookies.php

Assume you mean J’Mon Moore, since DJ has already been drafted...

I find it interesting that the WRs went in exactly the same order in both standard and ppr.  I certainly have different rankings for them in those systems.  Curious that the consensus does not.

miqws said:

I would add Tre’Quan Smith.  St. Brown has slipped a full round post draft.  A good source of the latest ranks is

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/rookies.php

Click to expand...

Ok I will add Tre'Quan Smith next.

FWIW I have Smith as a tier two upside WR and ranked him after Pettis but before Washington on my personal list while St Brown is in tier 3.

On your list St Brown is just ahead of Smith.

Arodin said:

Assume you mean J’Mon Moore, since DJ has already been drafted...

I find it interesting that the WRs went in exactly the same order in both standard and ppr.  I certainly have different rankings for them in those systems.  Curious that the consensus does not.

Click to expand...

Yes J'Mon Moore is who I was talking about as perhaps a better option if drafting Packers WR.

I agree that there is usually some variance between the standard and PPR poll, moreso than how players have won so far.

Biabreakable said:

Ok I will add Tre'Quan Smith next.

FWIW I have Smith as a tier two upside WR and ranked him after Pettis but before Washington on my personal list while St Brown is in tier 3.

On your list St Brown is just ahead of Smith.

Click to expand...

Guess I need to post an update.  I will probably include some player notes from podcasts that I have been listening too.  I started with Bloom's "On the Couch" and branched out from there. 

miqws said:

Guess I need to post an update.  I will probably include some player notes from podcasts that I have been listening too.  I started with Bloom's "On the Couch" and branched out from there. 

Click to expand...

I have been pretty busy so haven't found time to listen to stuff like this or to watch players such as J'Mon Moore yet. So I haven't made any changes.

For me it would mostly be slotting the players from my watch list into the rankings I have.

On another note I have been voting for Lamar Jackson for the last few polls now.

Lots of support for Washinton in the standard and PPR poll so far. Once again format is not seeming to make much of a difference as far as which WR people are voting for.

Josh Allen might actually win this one in the 2QB poll after having a tie with DJ Moore in poll 1.10

Hurst is one vote ahead of Miller and Gallup right now in the TE premium poll. Will be interesting to see if he can win this one or not. If he does that would show a mini gap between those 2 WR and the group ahead of them. Personally I do not really agree with this as Miller is my 3rd ranked WR from 2018 and ahead of other WR who have already won, but just reading the poll and that is what the results suggest.

Question for everyone. Do you think Miller and Gallup are not as good of WR prospects as Ridley, Sutton and Kirk?

If so why?

^^

Biabreakable said:

Question for everyone. Do you think Miller and Gallup are not as good of WR prospects as Ridley, Sutton and Kirk?

If so why?

Click to expand...

I own all of these WRs in my variety of dynasty leagues and like them all for different reasons.

That said, I think in PPR formats guys like Ridley, Kirk and Sutton have higher upside.  Just more talented.

Gallup has immediate upside based on the state of the Cowboys' WR situation but something makes me think he also has a low floor.

Miller, to me, is the lowest on that totem pole for sure. Like Gallup he has a low floor without the appeal of potential short-term upside.

Why does Christian Kirk have more upside or talent than Anthony Miller?

I can get RIdley being at the top of this tier of WR. That is where I have him because of his talent combined with perhaps the most favorable situation of being the WR 2 for the Falcons and working with Matt Ryan.

I can get Sutton because of his size and some people think that gives him more upside to become the Broncos number one WR if/when DT and Sanders move on (perhaps in 2019). I disagree and I think Sutton still has a lot of work to become as good a WR as Miller is right now.

What I don't get is how Kirk is more talented than Miller or that Kirk is in a better situation with Bradford/Rosen than Miller is with Trubisky.

Biabreakable said:

Why does Christian Kirk have more upside or talent than Anthony Miller?

I can get RIdley being at the top of this tier of WR. That is where I have him because of his talent combined with perhaps the most favorable situation of being the WR 2 for the Falcons and working with Matt Ryan.

I can get Sutton because of his size and some people think that gives him more upside to become the Broncos number one WR if/when DT and Sanders move on (perhaps in 2019). I disagree and I think Sutton still has a lot of work to become as good a WR as Miller is right now.

What I don't get is how Kirk is more talented than Miller or that Kirk is in a better situation with Bradford/Rosen than Miller is with Trubisky.

Click to expand...

Just an opinion after watching highlights and reading others' takes on both players.  

Maybe I'm jaded as a reluctant Bears fan, but I'd rather have Kirk learning under Fitz and being paired long-term with Rosen over Miller with what the Bears have now and long-term.

Still looks like James Washington in the first two polls. Josh Allen is hanging on to a lead in the 2 QB poll and Hurst has a lead in the TE premium poll.

Biabreakable said:

Why does Christian Kirk have more upside or talent than Anthony Miller?

I can get RIdley being at the top of this tier of WR. That is where I have him because of his talent combined with perhaps the most favorable situation of being the WR 2 for the Falcons and working with Matt Ryan.

I can get Sutton because of his size and some people think that gives him more upside to become the Broncos number one WR if/when DT and Sanders move on (perhaps in 2019). I disagree and I think Sutton still has a lot of work to become as good a WR as Miller is right now.

What I don't get is how Kirk is more talented than Miller or that Kirk is in a better situation with Bradford/Rosen than Miller is with Trubisky.

Click to expand...

I think the answer is simple... Kirk is getting hype whereas Miller is not. One could argue Kirk is on a better team, but we could also argue that Miller has the best outlook; we kind of know what Trubisky looks like and have no idea what Rosen will look like (although I am a huge fan of Rosen as the #1 QB out of this draft). 

Personally I think Miller has the best 2018 upside, and possibly beyond. I would feel really good about getting miller in the higher 2nd round. I traded up to 2.2 to grab either him or Gallup, and Miller went right ahead of Gallup. FWIW I do like Miller better in hindsight. At the time of my draft I liked Gallup. 

On a side note, I drafted Sutton ahead of Ridley  . For many of the reasons you stated as well as he is so young vs Ridley is older and doesn't project to ever be a WR1 in the NFL. Given my team, the risk is worth the reward as I much rather need a WR1 than WR2 long term. Ridley was actually WR4 in my draft, PPR. Ridley just concerned me on multiple levels. Finding out how much fun Dynasty is in really evaluating talent and drafting people long term for reasons that you prefer. 

Dr. Dan said:

I think the answer is simple... Kirk is getting hype whereas Miller is not. One could argue Kirk is on a better team, but we could also argue that Miller has the best outlook; we kind of know what Trubisky looks like and have no idea what Rosen will look like (although I am a huge fan of Rosen as the #1 QB out of this draft). 

Personally I think Miller has the best 2018 upside, and possibly beyond. I would feel really good about getting miller in the higher 2nd round. I traded up to 2.2 to grab either him or Gallup, and Miller went right ahead of Gallup. FWIW I do like Miller better in hindsight. At the time of my draft I liked Gallup. 

On a side note, I drafted Sutton ahead of Ridley  . For many of the reasons you stated as well as he is so young vs Ridley is older and doesn't project to ever be a WR1 in the NFL. Given my team, the risk is worth the reward as I much rather need a WR1 than WR2 long term. Ridley was actually WR4 in my draft, PPR. Ridley just concerned me on multiple levels. Finding out how much fun Dynasty is in really evaluating talent and drafting people long term for reasons that you prefer. 

Click to expand...

Yeah I have all of these WR in the same tier of players, so there isn't a huge difference to me between any of them.

But as far as how I rank them inside the tiers, it is about opportunity, competition, the team they are on and some consideration for who will may early impact.

I think Miller is a good position to make a contribution early in his career and that is something a owner will be able to leverage into trades. Meanwhile the new car smell will fade on players who are not playing much and the price of those players will likely drop over the course of this year providing the opportunity to buy them low.

When things are even, give me the guys who are more actionable right now.

Besides that I think the players who are already good enough to play and earn playing time may just end up having better careers than the players who have potential but haven't realized that potential yet during college when it would have been easier to do so. Some of these player never end up panning out.