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2019 Team Defense & Defense by Committee Thread

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23 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

I am throwing Denver back with KC, Houston, and bye upcoming.   Arizona offense is terrible but so is the SF D.  I don’t trust SF.  I’d probably go Washington over SF.  

Sounds reasonable -- I actually think the SF and ARI Ds are comparable this week, but better to take ARI as the home team and as a team that's netted>50 FPS in my league, compared to the one that netted <15.

Will be keeping my eye on SF though, in case of a turnaround. They look to have a very easy SOS ROS.

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How have Ds fared against TB? Thinking of CIN for this week, but with CAR also on the wire having to play them twice, wanted to get a better understanding of how TB matches up for a D fantasy-wise.

We may not have enough given that Winston is just coming back, but inquiring minds want to know.

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34 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Sounds reasonable -- I actually think the SF and ARI Ds are comparable this week, but better to take ARI as the home team and as a team that's netted>50 FPS in my league, compared to the one that netted <15.

Will be keeping my eye on SF though, in case of a turnaround. They look to have a very easy SOS ROS.

My rule of thumb is when in doubt take the team with the lowest Vegas O/U

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Better options in a short bench league so I'm unloading drafted MN for:

1. PHI

2. WAS

3 KC

anyone else like KC?  yea this week isn't great, but it's at arrowhead (Keenum may implode) and then, @ CLE and Zona @ home b4 the rams.

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, thecardiackid said:

Better options in a short bench league so I'm unloading drafted MN for:

1. PHI

2. WAS

3 KC

anyone else like KC?  yea this week isn't great, but it's at arrowhead (Keenum may implode) and then, @ CLE and Zona @ home b4 the rams.

 

 

 

Love KC.

That D started turning the corner against NE and the secondary has kept on improving. May get Houston back as well. 

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OK, scanning through my leguemates and divining who will take what position based on need, I think for me it will come between the Cards and Steelers.

I keep seeing the Steelers being rated highly this week, but the ARI/SF game has a lower o/u. Steelers have generally played poorly from a FPP perspective, but coming off a bye. Cards are actually scoring FPPs on D but are coming off an embarrassing loss and are clearly in disarray. 

ETA: LOL, FBG's MyFootballguys app shows ARI as a Top 5 D this week, Steelers at 22; but in Classic mode, Steelers ranked 5, ARI ranked 6. Not sure what that's about.

Both teams at home. 

What say you?

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors

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11 minutes ago, ratbast said:

Sticking with Colts against Oakland. No Lynch, no Cooper

No brainer there. And if you can hold through the bye, they have a fantastic schedule up through Week 13.

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goin WAS, PHI *dont like london games* and KC

Eli is due for a pick 6.

 

ETA: minus ATL, the WAS schedule is niiice.  More road games, but...

Edited by thecardiackid

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Quote

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Vikings DE Everson Griffen (personal) will resume team activities tomorrow.

Griffen left the team on September 20 to address his mental health struggles, but the Vikings are welcoming him back nearly a month later. It is unclear if Griffen will be eligible to play for the Week 8 game against the Saints, but it's great news that he is doing well enough to be around his teammates. When Griffen is on the field, he is one of the league's top pass-rushers, highlighted by his double-digit sack totals in three of his last four seasons.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Oct 23 - 6:24 PM

 

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Had KC and PIT in the radar. Went PIT for now. Been streaming all year and mostly disappointing. KC has 3 good match ups coming up and PIT could have the next 7 as decent plays. Nobody talks PIT anymore.

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11 hours ago, thecardiackid said:

Better options in a short bench league so I'm unloading drafted MN for:

1. PHI

2. WAS

3 KC

anyone else like KC?  yea this week isn't great, but it's at arrowhead (Keenum may implode) and then, @ CLE and Zona @ home b4 the rams.

 

 

 

I like KC and am starting them in one league. I think I like Philly more, unless you're spooked by the "Bortles always brings it in London" narrative. Part of me thinks it's silly, part of me thinks that they're the one team that goes over every year, and maybe they've figured a couple things out about acclimation that give them an advantage.

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5 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I like KC and am starting them in one league. I think I like Philly more, unless you're spooked by the "Bortles always brings it in London" narrative. Part of me thinks it's silly, part of me thinks that they're the one team that goes over every year, and maybe they've figured a couple things out about acclimation that give them an advantage.

Haha Bloke Bortles

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Got KC in waivers. Expect 50 points to be scored on them next week. 

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36 minutes ago, flapgreen said:

Got KC in waivers. Expect 50 points to be scored on them next week. 

Thanks...

Do me a favor and drop them. 

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I'm cutting Philly everywhere and had many shares of them. I don't know if you're paying attention but they are all but signing guys off the street for the secondary and they just lost their young up and coming defensive end. Chris Long is shot. And Schwartz has been awful. They aren't generating any pressure or getting turnovers. 

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I said last week I'd likely hold Ravens. Not so sure now.  Saints game pretty much what I expected.  Not great matchups next few weeks...bye week 10 and playoffs with Atl, KC.and LAC....

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4 minutes ago, JIslander said:

I said last week I'd likely hold Ravens. Not so sure now.  Saints game pretty much what I expected.  Not great matchups next few weeks...bye week 10 and playoffs with Atl, KC.and LAC....

I would play them against Cincy, Oakland, and TB (which is in week 15). They don't play Atlanta in the playoffs unless you start your playoffs in week 13. 

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4 minutes ago, simey said:

I would play them against Cincy, Oakland, and TB (which is in week 15). They don't play Atlanta in the playoffs unless you start your playoffs in week 13. 

Yeah, agree on Oak and TB.  As a Ravens fan, I know Cinnci brings their A+ game in those matchups.  They revelled in knocking us out of playoffs last year. I'd like to say I trust them, but that schedule for me shows 2 plus matchups out of 6 with a bye in the middle.

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Looking at Redskins.  Already had bye, one stinker of a game vs NO (not a surprise) and NYG, Jags and Tenn weeks 14-16.

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18 hours ago, JIslander said:

I said last week I'd likely hold Ravens. Not so sure now.  Saints game pretty much what I expected.  Not great matchups next few weeks...bye week 10 and playoffs with Atl, KC.and LAC....

I thought they did well holding the Saints on points, but they still only put up 3 fps for me.

Picked up the Cards for this week, but am actually crazily thinking of dropping them and picking up BOTH KC and IND for the long haul, while holding BAL in short term to see if they can provide some fantasy performance against upper-middling offenses like CAR and PIT.

Yes, carrying 3 Ds. Platooning them with IND and KC gives me the following schedule through WK 13:

@OAK

@ CLE

JAX/ARI

TEN

MIA

@JAX/@OAK

Also keeps BAL away from others.

Crazy, I know.

Anyone else think about who makes for the best pair to stream from here on out? That may be a saner approach. IND/NYJ seems pretty good (@OAK, @MIA, JAX/BUF. TEN, MIA, @JAX/@TEN, @BUF, DAL through Week 15) 

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19 hours ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

I'm cutting Philly everywhere and had many shares of them. I don't know if you're paying attention but they are all but signing guys off the street for the secondary and they just lost their young up and coming defensive end. Chris Long is shot. And Schwartz has been awful. They aren't generating any pressure or getting turnovers. 

woah woah woah...let's review this again.  Is PHI a true drop now?  I saw Barrett is now on IR.  The rest seem to be nicked up, but looking like they'll play in London.  The issue for me is the lack of turnovers, but hoping the JAX recent downfalls carry over into London.  If Kessler starts, that may just cure the PHI turnover woahs.

If PHI is a drop, then who's the target?  I see IND, KC, PIT, and SF out on my WW.

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who else is in on WAS?  yea it's on the road, but the giants are trading good players.  dropped MN for them.  they just shut down zeke and dallas.

KC could be great or bad.  Depends on if the DEN D keeps them in the game and if Keenum turtles.  Too many high scoring AFCW games in my head maybe.

 

 

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Relying on PHI for now, but definitely considering WASH if I need to make a change.

1 hour ago, thecardiackid said:

who else is in on WAS?

 

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article on the athletic where the author discusses his approach: https://theathletic.com/613054/2018/10/25/the-unpredictable-nature-of-fantasy-defenses-and-how-to-stream-the-randomness/

Quote

 

There are three things to look for when streaming a fantasy football defense:

-Which offenses that week are likely to throw the most passes, since sacks and turnovers (including fumbles which occur on about nine percent of sacks, according to Stats, LLC) are a product of passing plays

-Which offenses are most prone to yielding sacks and throwing picks, as a percentage of pass attempts

-Which offenses are the biggest underdogs (and, thus, likely to throw more passes)

Here are the offenses that throw the most passes per game: Colts, Ravens, Packers, Steelers, Vikings, Buccaneers (all at over 40 per game).

But only one of these teams have a rate of sacks plus fumbles over the NFL average of 9.7 percent — Tampa Bay. Who do the Buccaneers play this week? The Bengals, at Cincy, who are 4.5-point favorites. Cincinnati is only 18% owned. That’s your top choice for streaming defense if you are playing the probability of a team that throws way more than average and makes more mistakes than average when throwing.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Long Ball Larry said:

article on the athletic where the author discusses his approach

I love the approach, but this should also take into consideration the number of passing TDs the team acquires per passing attempt. TB throws alot, but they also score alot. 

To @VikingFrog point, Balt doesn't score much, but they also throw the ball around quite a bit. CAR is getting two pieces of their defense back this week.

So putting the high number of passing attempts with the low frequency of scoring against an improving defense, I'd think CAR is a better choice than CIN.

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Hey guys, not sure if this is the form to ask this. But I’ve been running our league for 14 years now. I’m looking for new ideas for team Defences and maybe getting rid of kickers. Does anyone have a great point system for D’s that would help make D trades in the NFL more interesting (without using IDP)?  

 Also, has anyone thought or tried using Offensive Lines as a position? Love to know if someone has a fun scoring system for that. 

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Someone please explain two things for me. 

EXHIBIT #1: THE NEW YORK JETS D

NYJ D. Over the last 4 weeks, they look like they've been trending downwards, with a 2-2 record over that stretch having allowed 58 points by opposing offenses (primarily vs Colts and Vikings over the last 2 weeks. But they started the year strong with vs just 58 total points in the first 4 games vs Lions, Dolphins, Browns, and Jags. This is a DST that is most likely on people's wires, and have a poor name brand in terms of being a desired option.

However, they stand as the #10 D all year by total fantasy points in my league's scoring. Looking at FBG standard scoring system, they are second to BAL in terms of top D overall. 

It seems as if they have fared really well against middling/poor teams, and actually played teams with potentially solid offenses like the Lions and Broncos to under 18 points on the field. Looking at weeks 9-14, they face only one challenging D (NE) -- the rest are the epitome of struggling teams -- MIA, TEN, and BUF twice.

As I look at FBG's self-touted fantastic MyFBG app, they stand as the #23 ranked D for ROS according to my league scoring. The classic version seems more in line with my expectations, ranking them #10 ROS (#12 with standard scoring).

It seems they have a solid track record, and a bit of a cupcake schedule. Why the hell aren't they more visibly talked about, here and elsewhere, not just for their performance to date, but as one of the better options for ROS? 

Given my waiver priority, missed out on some Ds like IND, PIT, and NE. So picked up ARI in the thoughts that their D can help tilt SF. But I am really considering dropping ARI right now for the Jets, and play either them on the road @CHI, or BAL @ CAR. Speaking of the Cards....

EXHIBIT #2: THE ARIZONA CARDINALS D

We know this offense is in disarray right now. But the discourse in the early parts of the last week (and still in some DST streaming articles) is that they looked like a solid play against SF. It's a unit that has some stars (Peterson, really, though Baker has stepped up as has Chandler Jones). It's a D that is Top 3rd in sacks, and do fairly well limiting pass yards and FPS vs QBs (though they allow points on the board). It's their run D that's been the problem, and while Mostert is running well, he's not elite. 

They were a general target for streamers that couldn't nab some of the more obvious choices (the aforementioned IND, NE, PIT, etc.), while my Ravens, who I have been holding as the #1 NFL and fantasy D, were touted as a risky play against a CAR team that has some weapons in Cam, CMC, and a heating-up Funchess and Olsen.

Over the course of the week, I know see projections (FBG and elsewhere) as ranking the Ravens and the Cards in the same general tier. I know BAL presents a formidable foe, but was surprised to see the steam let out of the Cards, and BAL gain in this way.

Are people who were looking at ARI D this week still trusting them? 

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On 10/26/2018 at 2:18 PM, Archiebonker said:

Hey guys, not sure if this is the form to ask this. But I’ve been running our league for 14 years now. I’m looking for new ideas for team Defences and maybe getting rid of kickers. Does anyone have a great point system for D’s that would help make D trades in the NFL more interesting (without using IDP)?  

 Also, has anyone thought or tried using Offensive Lines as a position? Love to know if someone has a fun scoring system for that. 

I don’t really have an answer for this in terms of anything I’ve seen, but I think it’s a great question.

One thing that has always bugged me is the sort of standard way of tabulating points for TD based on points allowed. I think more emphasis should be given for actual stats, be it turnovers and sacks or whatever the case may be. 

As for kickers I always thought adding punters and punting yards & I20 punts with deductions for TBs would be a good stat.

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5 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Are people who were looking at ARI D this week still trusting them? 

I have AZ in over Balt and Indy. Not sure I trust them per se, but I usually just play the stats and SF has been a TO machine and the’ve given up a lot of sacks. Definitely not a lock, but feel ok sbout it. Jones has been awesome this year. 

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19 minutes ago, zeke2222 said:

washinton Def vs Giants or Balt vs Carolina?

WAS D seems like a safer play to me.

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I picked Baltimore over Washington based on 1) Baltimore's higher scoring average, and 2) consensus rankings.

I should have based my selection on 1) Eli sucks, and 2) so do the Giants.

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On 10/25/2018 at 9:20 PM, Peak said:

I love the approach, but this should also take into consideration the number of passing TDs the team acquires per passing attempt. TB throws alot, but they also score alot. 

To @VikingFrog point, Balt doesn't score much, but they also throw the ball around quite a bit. CAR is getting two pieces of their defense back this week.

So putting the high number of passing attempts with the low frequency of scoring against an improving defense, I'd think CAR is a better choice than CIN.

i was mainly coming here to crow about this bengals call, though also lament the fact that I only used them in one league.  But on this point, I find that my leagues have really low scoring thresholds that are almost impossible to clear (like 13 pts or less to get anything for that), so I now really just try to hunt sacks, turnovers and TDs (though the latter is obviously so variable)

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Played myself this week by opting to go with BAL over ARI, choosing to dump ARI for the Jets' longer term favorable matchup.

Did it because of a weaker opponent this year, so in the end the negative points BAL put up hopefully won't bite me. Still think the move was sound strategically -- we'll see how the Jets fare against their weaker offensive opponents in the next few weeks. No question they are deteriorating against the run over the trailine 3 weeks (including this week).

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